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Friday, January 30, 2015
2015 Nascar Power Rankings (Offseason)
By Kate Roswell
2015 Power Rankings
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick grabs the top spot as the defending champ. Weather he back up his stellar 2014 season is debatable.
2. Jimmie Johnson- Johnson been racing at a high level for long time , its hard to imagine he won't be back in serious title contention in 2015.
3. Jeff Gordon- Gordon will take part in his final season for the championship. While many want to see Gordon win it all & set out in the sunset. Kinda feel like he may come up short. That been the common theme since 2002 season started ironically.
4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski won 6 times in 2014. He unlikely to repeat that feat. Keselowski also have became the most hated driver in our sport recently. Move over Kyle Busch!
5. Joey Logano - Logano had his breakout season in 2014. Now he could be primed for a 2015 championship. Hard to believe Joey only 24 years old.
6. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth had one of the better 2014 seasons. Never the fastest , but always a threat. Kenseth have built his career on being consistent. Will likely continue this upcoming season.
7. Kyle Busch - Busch had an down year. Good news is he probably won't stay down. Like many other have said , ''He's too talented.'' Got to believe he will easily bounce back.
8. Dale Jr - Dale had a great 2014 season. Quite possibly best season since early in his career. Can he take last season success and apply it to this upcoming season? We will find out.
9. Carl Edwards - Edwards could be ranked a litte higher. But I would rather see how he does at JGR first. I am optimism about success for Edwards though.
10. Denny Hamlin- Hamlin have the most to prove in the JGR stable. Hamlin was in the championship race , but many people overlooked him. He should be ranked a little higher. But want to give him an higher ceiling to start the season off.
11. Kyle Larson - Larson could have had one of the best rookie seasons in years. How he does from here will be very interesting!
12. Ryan Newman - Newman finished second in the championship standings , but made to championship race by consistency. Can he do it again?
Twitter - @CrazyKateNascar
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Kyle Busch
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Kyle Busch is under a lot of people radars. Usually when Kyle Busch slip under the radar he the most dangerous. There a old say , "What you don't know cannot hurt you." With Busch that totally untrue. Remember heading into 2013 season everyone was caught off guard by his stellar season. I am very high on Busch. Wouldn't be shocked to see him win the championship.
At Intermediate tracks in 2014 , Busch showed inconsistency. But be don't fooled. Over his career Kyle been an force to reckon with. Hard to pick out an standout track for Rowdy. Kentucky been an excellent place for him though. In 4 Career starts , Kyle have 3 Top 10s including one win. Busch is one of 3 drivers to win at Kentucky in Sprint Cup Series. Also Auto Club speedway is another great place to use him. Over the past 2 seasons , Busch have won both times here. From career standpoint , Busch have 3 wins and 12 Top 10s in 17 starts. Hard to argue with those stats.
Also Busch should be good at Darlington , Charlotte , Texas , Dover , Las Vegas, and Chicago. Michigan and Kansas are by far his worst tracks. Kinda feel like he coming around at Kansas. His 3rd last season was a major step forward no doubt. At Michigan ,Busch been all or nothing most of the time.
At flats tracks , Busch been one of the best in the series. At New Hampshire he been very good. How good? 3 of his past 4 races have resulted in 2nd place. 3 runner ups in 4 race span is impressive. His other finish is 8th. I know who I am picking at New Hampshire. At Phoenix Busch been inconsistent but a pattern have formed. 1 Bad finished followed by back-to-back top 10s. If that pattern continue , expect 2 top 10s from Rowdy in 2015. The problem with patterns they're simply that. Past 2 of 3 races have resulted in 9th or better.
At Pocono Busch have never won. But 11 of 20 career races have ended in 20th or better. 3 of the past 4 races have resulted in 12th or better. Including finishes of 8th and 6th. Last August race Busch day ended early after an incident. In last 8 races , 50% of his races have resulted inside the top 10. At Indianapolis Busch usually get overlooked but don't be fooled. In 10 career races Busch have 8 Top 10s and 3 Top 5s. He super underrated here.
At short tracks Busch been pretty decent during his career. Bristol may be Busch best track from career standpoint. In 20 career starts , KB have 5 wins and 12 Top 10s for 12.1 average finish. But Busch haven't been very good at "New Bristol". In past 4 races Busch have 19.5 average finish. Don't be fooled Rowdy been pretty competitive but bad luck have snake bitten him. That my top theory. My second theory is he was better on the older surface then the newly repave layout. I am leaning towards little of both.
Richmond may be Busch top track from a career standpoint. In 20 career starts , Busch have 7.3 average finish, 4 wins , 14 Top 5s and 19 Top 20s. He rarely been off his game. Busch been decent over his past 4 races with an 15.0 average finish and 93.3 driver rating. 3 of 4 races he posted a driver rating above 90. Martinsville been another nice place for Busch. Usually don't get the credit he should. In past 4 races ,Busch have an 11.4 average finish and posted 3 of 4 races with an driver rating above 98. Worst finish in that span was 15th which is pretty solid.
At Road courses Busch overall been middle of the road more of an teen caliber track at Sonoma. Always good but never great. In 10 career starts , He have 1win and 5 Top 20s for an 20.9 average finish. Nothing stellar. I wouldn't use him at Sonoma not a chance. Watkins Glenn is the place to unleash the beast. In 10 career starts , Busch have 2 wins and 8 Top 10s for 11.3 average finish. Hard to bet against him here. Even though at a lot people bitter from his epic fail from last season poor finish.
Plate tracks I think Kyle Busch is way underrated. He doesn't always bring home the bacon , but usually when he does the bacon golden. Would I gamble on Busch at Daytona 500? Nah too early to gamble. But I wouldn't mind rolling the dice at Talladega or July Daytona race. Difficult to pinpoint to which race Busch will score a respectable finish at. Usually hit or more. Most drivers are hit or miss though.
Twitter - @MattAleza
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Brad Keselowski
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Brad Keselowski was quite possibly the best driver during the 2014 season as racked up 6 wins but in the end his aggressive attitude was his down fall as it cost him an championship shot. There were two incidents during the chase that have Brad labeled as the bad guy. First at Charlotte and then again at Texas. At Charlotte he was just being an complete idiot. At Texas that was more hard racing. Either way he became a villain from standpoint of his fellow competitors and fans. That's for another day though.
At Intermediate racetracks , Brad Keselowski was very competitive last season. He won 3 times while being one an weekly threat to win. There were multiple races where he had an top 5 car but didn't get the finish he deserved. Brad won at Las Vegas , Chicago and Kentucky. Of the 3 tracks , his Kentucky performance stands out because how much better he was then everyone else. In that race BK led 199 of 267 laps and posted 150.0 driver rating. Brad have won past 2 of 3 Kentucky races.
At Las Vegas , Brad didn't have the best car but was top 5 all day. In late stages of the race he put himself in a great position and won. Past 2 seasons , BK finishes of 1st and 3rd. For an average finish of 2.5 and held 126.6 driver rating. Others tracks he should be considered at would be: Dover , Homestead , Texas , Charlotte, Michigan and Kansas.
At Flats , Brad will among one of the strongest in the field. He have this type track figured out as does his teammate. At Phoenix since the repave he been one of the best in the series. Excluding 2011 fall race he been elite. In past 6 races (since 2012) , Brad have 5.5 average finish and 113.0 driver rating.
New Hampshire makes a great case as Brad's best flat track. Last season he was quite possibly the best driver there. Had finishes of 7th and 1st. Including 216 laps led and 129.7 driver rating. Fluke? Definitely not. Over the past 7 New Hampshire races , Brad have an 5.1 average finish and 110.9 driver rating. During those 7 races , Brad have had least led once in every race.
At Indianapolis Brad haven't been super stellar but still fantasy relevant. Last season he started 3rd and finished 12th. Actually Brad have 3 Top 12 in his past 4 races. Including a pair of top 10s. Brad highest finish in 6 races is 9th (twice) though. Brad needs to take the next step here and score a top 5. At Pocono , Brad been pretty inconsistent in recent seasons. Since 2011 , he have 4 Top 6 finishes (including a win) and an runner up finish. On the flip side, he also have finishes of 23rd , 18th and 16th. So there been good and bad with BK. Hard to say what to expect in 2015.
Short tracks been somewhat unkind to him. I feel like the potential been there but results haven't. At Bristol he have had mix results. Over past 7 races , Brad have 4 Top 3 finishes. Including two wins. He also have finishes of 30th (twice) and 14th. Major upside with some risk involved is the theme at Bristol.
At Richmond he been similar. In past 6 races , Brad have 3 finishes inside the top 9. On the opposite end , Brad have 2 finish of 17th and 33rd. Seems like at short tracks Brad have an consistency problem. The potential there but cannot back it up the following 2 or 3 races. Major concern to me. Being reliable is an key attribute to any fantasy relevant option.
Martinsville was the worst of all tracks in 2014. Didn't see this coming since the previous four races resulted inside the top 10. Needless to say , his finishes of 31st and 38th were due to incidents on the racetrack/pitroad. He probably should have been an top 10 threat at least.
At road courses , Brad is an well known racer at Watkins Glenn. Before last season poor finish he was considered an top fantasy option. Sonoma he never been anything special. I would continue to avoid there. At Watkins Glenn in 5 races , Brad have 3 Top 5s. At Sonoma in 5 starts , he have 2 Top 20s. Pretty easy to tell which track he been better at.
Plate track I believe Brad Keselowski can make an nice option for any fantasy team. Honestly I would probably trust him more at Talladega. He kinda have a knack at winning there. Daytona he been more hit or miss. I guess it comes down to luck. Last season Brad finished inside top 5 at the Daytona 500.
Brad Keselowski will be threat for the championship no doubt. I feel like he need mature more. I am all for aggressive racing. But there a different between being aggressive and being a idiot. Last season he showed he don't know the different. Something he needs to work on as a young driver. He will have moments to shine on Intermediate tracks. On shorts and flats I feel like Brad will be at inconsistent with great potential. He will probably win a few on them too. Road courses I expect his better result to come at Watkins Glenn.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Monday, January 26, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Kevin Harvick
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Kevin Harvick won the 2014 championship after winning the final two races of the 2014 season. But he was far from perfect. Harvick struggled to find consistency most of the regular season. Could blame his pit crew but the black cloud under the 4 team was the reason. Harvick had 5 wins during his championship campaign. Probably should have won close to 12 though. He was dominated week in and week out. Can he back that up in 2015? Probably not.
Intermediate tracks was a strong spot for Harvick in his first year with SHR. He arguably had zero weak tracks. I mean up and down the board he was impressive. Michigan probably stands out because he have 4 straight top 5s in past 4 races. All runners too which is just insane. Bet KH getting tired of 2nd by now. Charlotte another excellent track for Harvick. Over past 2 seasons (4 races) , Harvick have 2 wins and 3 Top 5s for 2.5 average finish. Only finish outside top 5 was an 6th place effort.
Flats were pretty kind to Harvick in 2014. At Pocono , Harvick had finishes of 14th and 2nd. Harvick was better then his 14th place finish. Believe he lost a lap due having to pit and never got back to the front. In both Pocono races , SHR cars were outstanding performance wise. I remember because how good Busch and Stewart were throughout that first Pocono.
At New Hampshire , Harvick had mix results last season. The first race. He was running top 5 before running empty on fuel and finished 30th. The second race however Harvick finished 3rd after leading 104 laps earlier in the race. Will be interesting to see how he does in 2015 at the magic mile.
Phoenix is arguably Harvick best track. Nobody been better since the repave. They should rename it Harvick Raceway. In past 3 races, Harvick have 3 wins and 146.9 driver rating. Just ridiculous. Any driver rating over 140 for 3 race stench is insane. In fact in 7 races since repave , Harvick have 4 wins and 2nd place finish. He have more wins then the field combined. I do feel like as more races at Phoenix under this surface , the less dominated Harvick will become. Before the repave Jimmie Johnson was king.
Indianapolis always been a good track for Harvick but never great. That changed in 2014 Harvick. Not surprise by that though. Last season Harvick started on the pole and finished. In that race he led 12 laps and held an 114.3 driver rating. The change to SHR did wonders for Kevin Harvick.
At short tracks in 2014 , Harvick had his up and downs. At Richmond Harvick was impressive. Had finishes of 5th and 11th. In those races , Harvick had an combine 113.2 driver rating which backs up his performance. Also led 17 and 23 laps in those races. Overall not terrible. But not one of top tracks from last season which is saying something.
At Martinsville , Harvick had mix results. In the spring Harvick finish 7th after leading 1 lap. In the fall Harvick finished 33rd and 43 laps off the pace. From career standpoint Martinsville definitely not an great track overall. In 27 starts , Harvick have 1 win and 16.4 average finish. 4th worst track of 23 in terms of average finish.
At Bristol , Harvick have had bad luck lately despite being fast. Over past 3 races , 2 of them have resulted in outside top 30. Last summer was a good race for Harvick though. Started on the pole and finished 11th. Believe he caused Denny Hamlin to wreck into Dale Jr though which led to an Hans device being thrown at his car. So not exactly incident free. Don't wanna anger Junior Nation.
Road Courses I am on the fence about. Kinda feel like he have the potential but the results haven't been there. Last season he was pretty overall. At Sonoma he had the best car. But around lap 85 , he was involved in a incident caused by Jamie Mac sending an flat tire Bowyer spinning. Which led Harvick to getting damaged. Never truly recovered unfortunately. At Watkins Glenn Harvick had a really strange start. Had to pit within the first 5 laps because an bean bag were left in his car. Was able to rebound to an 7th place finish.
Plate tracks are difficult to predict for Harvick. He been hit or miss a lot lately. I feel like it could go either way for him. In 2014 he had mix results. Usually that how it goes for him. Logically its should continue in the 2015 season. From career standpoint that seems to be the theme as well. Take your chances with him. Even though I believe there better places to use him likely.
I believe Harvick will have another awesome season with SHR. Hard to see him backing it up with another championship. 2015 rule package may put him and the 4 team back with everyone else on a performance level. Or it may not. History says it will. With today's ever changing packages , it hard to find an advantage and keep it. You can use Harvick pretty much anywhere. I would suggest using him on Intermediate tracks the most though.
Twitter - @MattAleza
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Joey Logano
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Joey Logano is my 2015 championship pick. Yes I also picked him before the 2014 season. Not a fan of his , but hard to deny the potential this dude have. Last season most people starting to realized how good he was. But honestly soon as he moved to Penske he became a superstar. Year 3 could be the year for Logano.
Honestly I feel like Logano don't ever get the credit he deserves. I felt like at JGR he was the odd man out. Coach Gibbs saw the potential with him. Unfortunately pulled the trigger too soon and missed Joey in his prime. Penske will have a lot success with Logano.
Last season at Intermediate venues , Logano was one of the best in the series. Actually his first two years with Penske he been one of the best in the NSCS. Charlotte always stood out to me. In 12 career starts , Logano have an 10.0 average finish and 7 Top 10s. Have two top 5s since being with Penske. Las Vegas been an excellent track for Logano. In 6 career starts , Only have 1 finish outside the top 20. Last season he had one of the strongest cars in the field and finish 4th.
Charlotte probably his best track. But Dover isn't far behind. In 12 career races , Logano have 8 Top 10s and 3 Top 5s. Over past 2 seasons , Logano have 4 Top 10s and 5.5 average finish. Logano underrated here. Don't hear much about him because he never won. But I consider him the best driver not to win yet.
At Flats Logano will be a big threat no doubt. New Hampshire is his best track in my opinion. Over past two seasons , JoLo only have an 23.7 average finish and 87.0 driver rating. Don't be fooled though. The past 2 July races , Logano only completed 211 laps and finish 40th both times. Crazy how he had an incident and only completed 211 laps both races. Last October he won after leading 73 laps. Logano is much better then his record suggests. Cannot always believe stats. Sometimes they're misleading like in this instance.
Phoenix is another place that I really like him at. In 2014 he was arguably one of the best drivers in the field. Excluding his debut with Penske in 2013 , Logano been excellent. Past 3 races , Logano have 6.3 average finish and 112.3 driver rating. Also Logano have led in all three races for combine total of 121 laps.
Pocono and Indy also been pretty kind to him since joining Team Penske. Excluding June 2014 Pocono race , Joey have an 6.6 average finish and 103.3 driver rating at Pocono. At Indianapolis , Joey been equally good. In 2 races since joining Penske , Joey have an 6.5 average finish and 104.0 driver rating. Between the two larger flats (5 races) , Logano have 6.5 average finish and 103.6 driver rating.
Short tracks was somewhat of a weak spot in 2013. But he shown major improvements in 2014. Richmond been his top short track. Excluding Richmond fall 2013 , Logano been stout. In 3 races with Penske , Logano have an 3.3 average finish and 109.3 driver rating. Won last spring after leading 46 laps.
Bristol been good to Logano especially since joining Team Penske. In 4 races with races with Penske , Logano have an 1 win , 103.5 driver rating and 10.7 average finish. Solid record. But unfortunately it misleading. Actually Logano record should be even better. Spring 2014 Bristol race , Logano had a top 5 car before an mechanical issue cost him multiple laps and finish 20th.
At Martinsville Logano was phenomenal in 2014. He was the only driver to finish inside the top 5 in both races. Had an driver rating above 115.0 in both races which backs up his 4.5 average finish. Also had excellent qualifying efforts. He have qualified 6th or better in all 4 races with Team Penske. Not many guys can say that.
Logano very underrated at Road courses. Only matter of time before he breaks out. In 4 road courses races with Team Penske , Logano have an 10.0 average finish and 2 Top 10s. Both top 10s came at Watkins Glenn. Sonoma been a little rougher. Still haven't been terrible. Sonoma been a tough spot for Team Penske over last few years as an organization. Logano results probably been the only positive.
Plate tracks are hard to predict. I really hate using stats and numbers to make a point for a driver. To be honest , I don't hate using Logano at either venue. Nor would I recommend. I think it comes to your gut feeling. He found success at them in 2014. 5 of 8 with Penske have resulted in the 11th - 20th place range. Weather that trend continue is questionable though.
I am very high him like I was last offseason. Otherwise he wouldn't be my championship pick. You could use him pretty much anywhere. Short , flats and Intermediate tracks will be the best places to use him. Road Courses also wouldn't be a terrible place to unload Logano. Weakness for Logano may be his inexperience. This dude only 24 years old despite 6 years racing in Cup. Last season he saw it bit him a few times.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Carl Edwards
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Carl Edwards will make his debut with Joe Gibbs Racing at the Daytona 500. I am sure everyone is interested to see how we does with his new team. JGR is a more all-around organization then RFR. Both had a down year in 2013. Only different was JGR was much more competitive. Edwards realized that as well probably. Weather he have a stellar year like Kenseth and Harvick remains to be seens. But his production should automatically expected to be improved from 2014.
Intermediate venues always been a strong area for Edwards. He been one of the most consistent individuals in Nascar at this type track. There several excellent venues to use him like Las Vegas , Dover , Kansas and Charlotte to name a few of them. Of the 4 tracks , I think Las Vegas his top track. In 10 starts , Cousin Carl have 2 wins and 5 Top 10s. 9 of 10 races there have ended in 20th or better.
Kansas is another great place to use him. In 15 races , Edwards have 6 Top 5 and 11 Top 10s. Including 3 straight top 6 finishes over past 3 races. Only twice have he finished outside of the top 20. Another great example of his reliable finishes. As a fantasy player that something I am always looking for. At Dover , Edwards always been pretty decent option pick. JGR been as a whole actually been really good. So I am fairly high on Edwards at Dover in 2015. In 21 career races , Edwards have 1 win , 8 Top 5s , 12 Top 10s and 10.2 average finish. Only twice has he finished worst then 20th.
Flats will probably be more strength then a weakness for Edwards in 2015. JGR have shown superb potential compared to RFR. In 2014 , Usually Edwards finishing in the top 15 was a good day. JGR however had weekly top 10 cars. Expect an upstick in production. Phoenix is probably Edwards top flat track. In 21 races , Edwards have 2 wins , 7 Top 5s and 12 top 10s for 12.2 average finish. Even if RFR past two seasons , Edwards have 11.2 average finish. Which isn't terrible honestly. Expect pre-2013 like results. You know being an legit top 5 threat.
Pocono is another nice place to use Edwards. In 20 career races , Edwards have 2 wins and 8 Top 10s. Nothing stellar. But I feel like he under the radar here. Actually way under the radar. 10 Stench race from 2008 to 2012 , Edwards had 6 Top 10s. Including 3 Top 3 finishes. Only 1 finish worse then 20th. Feel like he could return to form in 2015.
New Hampshire is a place where Edwards could excel at. JGR were very competitive over past two seasons here. Edwards haven't been too bad himself. In 21 races , Edwards have finished inside 20th or better 20 times. Like I pointed out earlier he's pretty reliable. Similar to teammate Matt Kenseth. At Indy , Edwards always been good. But never great. In 10 career races , Edwards have 3 Top 10 and 9 Top 20s. Always been a teen-ish driver. With JGR that all could change. Last season , all three cars finished in the top 5.
At short tracks , Edwards always been a legit threat. One of JGR primary strengths seems to be short tracks. A win-win right there. Bristol seems to be one of Edwards favorite tracks on the schedule. In 21 career starts , Edwards have 3 wins and 15 finishes inside the top 20. Once again pretty reliable. In 2014 , Edwards have finishes of 1st and 7th.
Richmond been a decent place for him. In 21 career races , Edwards have 13.9 average finish and 1 win. Over past 10 races , Edwards have 8 Top 10s. Including his lone win. Expect JGR equipment to only make him better. If Edwards can finish inside top 10 with RFR equipment over past 2 seasons. Then he should contend for race wins or least top 5s with his new team.
Martinsville never been a great track for Edwards. But I feel like that could change in 2015. Throughout his career , Edwards been a consistent teen driver. Teammate Kenseth was before he got to JGR. Then he flipped the switch the last two season. Trust me that doesn't happen unless you have a strong short track program.
Edwards is a underrated road course racer. Trust me last season success at Sonoma and Watkins Glen were no fluke. Its was clear he was about to break out in recent seasons. Since 2011 , Edwards have 3 Top 5s at Sonoma. Outside of 2012 race , Edwards worst finish is 3rd (twice). At Watkins Genn , Edwards have 7 Top 10s in 10 career starts. Not many realize this but Watkins Glenn is Edwards best track. His 8.4 average finish backs that up. Worst finish is 19th.
Under zero circumstances would I see myself using Edwards at an plate race in 2015. Just too much risk with a guy like Edwards. Hard to trust a guy like Edwards at Daytona and Talladega. Not because he cannot finish well. But because Edwards just too darn valuable. Plus Daytona and Talladega have been very unkind to Edwards throughout his career. Hard to see that changing overnight even with a new team.
I truly believe Edwards career will re-energized with the move to JGR. All area should see a improvements. I also feel like the nascar fanbase is divided on Edwards. Half have him under the radar. Other half thing the monster under Cousin Carl's bed about to take over & wreck this series. Expect his best days to be at Intermediate tracks , shorts and road courses. Wouldn't be shocked to see him be stout at flats either though.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Saturday, January 24, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Jeff Gordon
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Jeff Gordon will retire after the conclusion of the 2015 season. Gordon debuted at Atlanta in the early 1990s before becoming this sport top rated superstar over first 10 seasons. Including over 50 wins and 4 championships. In 2014 Gordon showed flashes of that Gordon. But didn't have enough in the tank after an slight incident with Brad Keselowski.
I don't think Gordon will go out with an 5th championship. For that to happen he will have to repeat his 2014 season performance. Hard seeing that happening. Of course anything possible. History says it unlikely.
At Intermediate venues , Gordon will be one of the strongest competitors. There really isn't a weak track for him nor is there a standout strong track. Honestly he pretty darn good everywhere. I feel like Dover or Kansas could be consideded his best track. At Kansas , Gordon have made 18 career starts and have 3 wins and 12 Top 10s. Gordon recently won there in 2014. Darlington however is a widely more well-known track for Gordon. In 34 starts , JG have 11.4 average finish and 7 wins. Over past 11 Darlington races , Gordon have 8 Top 5s. Including 7 finishes of 3rd or better. Yeah that pretty impressive.
Other good intermediate venues to consider him at would be: Dover , Chicago , Atlanta , Auto Club and Homestead. Few weak tracks for him. Charlotte and Las Vegas both stand out from career point of view. Especially Vegas. Over 17 career races , Gordon have 15.0 average finish. Pretty similar over past 2 season as well. Way better places to use him. Charlotte been a good place for him lately. With only 1 finish outside top 5 since 2013. But from a career standpoint he struggled despite 5 wins. Least compared to other venues. In 44 races , JG have an 15.4 average finish. Only other track worse is Texas in average finish department.
Flats arguably are Gordon biggest advantage during a season. He have the abilities to do stuff most others competitors don't. His top notch equipment helps. But either way Gordon is one of the best in the business. 2015 won't be any different.
Pocono is an fantastic venue for Gordon. In 44 starts , Gordon have 9.7 average finish and 6 wins.Since 2010 (past 9 races) , Gordon have 7 finishes inside the top 10. 6 Of them have resulted in 6th or better. Gordon have 3 straight finishes inside the top 10. Including finishes of 6,8 and 2 for average finish of 5.3. Last win came in August of 2012.
Indianapolis another great place for Gordon. But it considered his 2nd best flat. Which probably seems weird. Because his numbers at Indy are elite. In 21 career races , Gordon have 5 wins and 8.4 average finish. Since 2001 (14 races) , Gordon have 12 finishes of 9th or better. 8 of those finishes were 5th or better. Gordon have 4 straight finishes inside top 7. Including a win in 2014.
New Hampshire been a pretty decent track for Gordon. In 40 starts , Gordon have 3 wins and 11.4 average finish. Gordon had two bad races in 2014. Even in 2013 Gordon seemed off. Well okay he actually had top 10 cars in all 4 races. If not top 5 potential. Trust me Gordon still one of the best at this place. He need some better luck at New Hampshire.
Short tracks been good to Jeff for a long time. Honestly Martinsville is the only safe bet. I feel like Richmond and Bristol bit more risky to use him. I am not against use him there. But wouldn't recommend it either though.
Martinsville clearly Gordon top track. In 44 starts , Gordon have 8 wins and 6.8 average finish. Not many individuals been able to conquer Martinsville like Gordon have. From 1995 to 2000 , Gordon had 12 straight finishes of 8th or better. Including 10 finishes of 5th or better. 7 of those finishes were of 3rd better. From 2003 to 2010 , Gordon had 15 straight finishes of 9th or better. 13 of them were 5th or better. 2 of Gordon past 3 races been 3rd or better. Yeah he pretty good at the paperclip.
In 44 starts at Bristol , Gordon have 5 wins. Last win? 2002. 4 of those wins came back in the 1990s. Gordon have been decent at "New Bristol". He been pretty inconsistent actually. In past 4 races (past 2 seasons) , Gordon have two finishes of 7th. And other two finishes were 16th and 34th. Since 2008 (14 races) , Gordon have had only 6 finishes inside top 10. That's under 50%. Better places to use Gordon most likely.
At Richmond , Gordon have 2 wins and 13.6 average finish in 44 races. Been pretty good lately though.4 of his past 5 races have resulted in 8th or better. His other finish was 11th in 2013. His last win was all the way back in 2000. From 2007 to 2010 (7 races) , Gordon had 7 straight top 10s. He trustworthy at RIR. But there better places to use him. Probably doesn't make the 9-start cut on most Yahoo Fantasy Racing teams. Gordon just have too many great tracks. Not sure if I ever complained about that.
Road Courses are pretty much Jeff Gordon own personal playground. Every time we good to Sonoma and Watkins Glenn. Expect Gordon name to come up often. His 9 road course wins gives him that honor though. Last win was 2007 at Sonoma. Sonoma is the much better track. Actually Gordon is way overrated at Watkins Glenn. Only have 2 Top 10s since 2002.
Daytona and Talladega always an popular place to use Gordon. Honestly I don't think I have ever use Gordon at the Daytona 500. Usually you tell what kinda of year he will have by his early season results. Not always , but you get a good feel. Would hate to burn a perfectly good Gordon start. Especially in limited start leagues. Honestly weather you use Gordon is more a personal decision at plate tracks. I rather go all in with an sneaky pick and save Gordon for another day. That's me though.
Look Gordon will no doubt be in contention all season long. Try to use him at his best tracks. Don't try to save him. Use him if looks legit. If he looks off then save him. Really all there is to it. Doesn't matter where you unload Gordon. Bigger question is how many points he gets you. Martinsville , Dover , Kansas , Pocono and Indianapolis are the preferred tracks to use him at. Watkins Glenn , Las Vegas , Daytona and Talladega seems to have plagued Gordon in recent seasons. Would probably avoid him at those specific tracks.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Jimmie Johnson
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For any normal driver 4 wins would be a fantastic season , right? Well Jimmie Johnson isn't your normal driver. To be honest he actually had great stats across the board. Yet it considered a down year. That just speaks volumes on how great Jimmie Johnson been since debuting in 2002.
Intermediate venues will definitely be a strong suit for Jimmie Johnson. Cannot say there a weak track for him. Maybe Michigan from a career standpoint. Dover is probably his best track. In 26 races , JJ have a staggering 9 wins , 14 Top 5s and 19 Top 10s. Most NSCS drivers don't even have a race at Dover. Let alone 9 wins. 2 of those wins have came within the past 2 season. There plenty of other tracks to use him at. I would recommend Kansas , Texas , Charlotte , Darlington , Kentucky , ACS and Las Vegas.
Flat tracks always been a strong suit for Johnson. Maybe it have something to do his top tier equipment. But he seems to excell at them. Phoenix stands out as his best track. In 23 starts , JJ have 4 wins , 14 Top 5s and 18 Top 10s. Lately Johnson been pretty decent. Outside of that one bad finish Johnson ranked among the best in the series. 3.6 Average finish minus his bad finish in November 2014. Pretty darn good.
Pocono is another excellent flat for Jimmie Johnson. In 26 trys , Johnson have 3 wins and 9.9 average finish. JJ inconsistent lately. Over past two seasons , JJ have 1 win and 2 Top 10s. But 2 finishes of 11th or worse. Pocono always been a good track Jimmie. Expect that to continue in 2015.
New Hampshire is another flat that Johnson have done great on. Yeah I know I sound like a broken record. In 26 races , Jimmie have 10.2 average finish. Including 3 wins and 23 finishes of 20th or better. Impressive. Over past 2 seasons , Johnson have 12.7 average finish. 3 Finishes inside top 10. The lone bad finish was because of last season tire issue in July.
Short tracks arguably could go down as weakness. Outside of Martinsville , Johnson been hit or miss at Richmond and Bristol. Martinsville would be the only place I trust him at. Period. In 26 races , Johnson have 8 wins and 6.5 average finish. No other driver can say that. About any track really. At Bristol , Johnson have 1 win and 14 Top 10s. With 15.0 average finish. Not terrible. But Johnson such a great fantasy asset you want max potential every time. Bristol isn't really safe enough for that potential. Plus he usually don't dominate.
At Richmond Johnson have 3 wins in 26 races. He also only have 5 Top 5s , 9 Top 10s and 16 Top 10s. Which comes out to 17.5 average finish. Most people don't realize Johnson is overrated at RIR. Probably because those 3 wins stand out. Haven't been very good outside of that.
Plate track of Daytona and Talladega have plagued Jimmie for years. He shown improvements finish wise. I still don't trust him. Two reasons: 1) Too many unknowns at these races. 2) Too better tracks to use him at. Use him if you want. But won't see me using him.
Jimmie is one of Nascar best kept road course racer secrets. Not sure why either. He learned from probably the best road course racer in Jeff Gordon. Johnson only have 1 win. But don't be fooled. In 26 races combined , JJ have 15 Top 10s and 21 Top 20s. Let be real that legit. Johnson never get enough credit. But I get it. Too many good places to use him. Road courses get the boot. Big reason why people overlook him probably.
Johnson will have another stellar season. I won't pick him to win the championship like I did last season. But wouldn't surprise me if that happened though. With Johnson I try to use him when the situation is right. If he looks dominated in practice. Good chance he will be dominate the race. Use him. You can use him anywhere. That the not question. The 1 million dollar question is where will he score max points. Good chance he score max points at his best track. Very good reason to know his career stats.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Thursday, January 22, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Busts (Tier 1)
Welcome to Timerssports
Hey how everyone doing? The 2015 Nascar season is upon us. Only 1 month until the Daytona 500. Who isn't excited about that? I know I am. This week we are diving in Fantasy Nascar sleepers & busts. I think there a major misunderstanding when its comes to these terms. The general public definition of a sleeper is someone who traditionally an unknown or an trending up option with potential. Or something along those lines.
That fairly accuracy definition. But most fantasy nascar players out there don't fully understand a sleeper necessary need to be an unknown (or non-star) driver. Actually any driver can be a sleeper on any given week. Keep that in mind as we get into the season. Look for trends and compare them to a driver current worth (or price). Usually there hidden value laying around waiting for you.
Busts are more difficult to determine. The difficult part about them are identifying. Typically busts are drivers you're expecting to do well. The most common signs of a bust usually vary from terrible track record , over-valued , cold streak, or inconsistency on specific track-type. Now that we cover the basics. Lets look at some sleepers and busts for the 2015 Nascar season.
***Note: All drivers in this article are from my Tier 1 selection of drivers. Based on my preferences.
****Author Note: You're solely accountable for anything you use or apply to fantasy sports related games. Timerssports should and will not be held responsible for any information you choose to use.
Sleepers:
Kasey Kahne- Yes I believe Kahne gonna have solid year in 2015. The rule package should work out in his favorite. Plus he's in HMS level equipment. Anyone in a major-caliber ride will have a chance to do well. Most people have jump off the Kahne-train. I see no harm in taking a free ride in a luxury room. I mean what the worst that could happen? Don't think his fantasy value can drop anymore. Especially after the 2014 chase effort.
Paul Menard - I rode the Nard-Dog into the ground last season. I got every ounce of value out of him. I think he can sneak into victory lane early in the season. He holds the most value in the first 12 races. After that you're basically playing with fire and gasoline. Only take one mistake to light the whole neighborhood on fire.
Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr was someone I mentioned a lot towards end of the 2014 season. Felt like he finally got comfortable with the 78 team. Something I knew would take awhile. Truex was among the top 12 quite often in the final 10 races. I think the 78 team will use their 2014 chase success and have nice 2015 season. Don't think Truex will win. But definitely a nice underrated fantasy value.
Busts -
Sam Hornish Jr: I know a lot of people are high on Sam. But I cannot be super-high on a guy who best season was an 19.3 average finish with Penske. I am not buying into the hype. Sam never really been a legit Cup driver. He barely an upgrade from Marcos Ambrose. Not that me hating on Hornish Jr. I really like the guy. I hope he proves me wrong.
Brad Keselowski - My definition of a bust is someone fails to meet the standards of the public. After 6 wins I have heard a lot of people talk about a similar 2015 season for Keselowski. Yeah I don't think so. Since the chase format formed very few drivers have scored 5 wins in back-to-back season. Honestly I cannot name anyone outside of Jimmie Johnson. With the ever changing rules packages it very unlikely for BK to repeat an magic 2014 campaign. I expect some disappointed fans.
Twitter - @Gbriggs12
2015 Fantasy Nascar Rankings
Welcome to TimersSports
Folks we are 1 month away from the Daytona 500. Exciting right? If you play Fantasy Nascar you're likely doing some research for upcoming season. We thought you would , so here the first rankings of the 2015 season. Compiled from our staff of writers.
**These set of rankings are based on how we feel they stack up heading into 2015. NOT predictions for the 2015 season.
Rankings -
1. Kevin Harvick
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Joey Logano
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Jeff Gordon
6. Kyle Busch
7. Matt Kenseth
8. Carl Edwards
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Dale Jr
11. Kasey Kahne
12. Kyle Larson
13. Kurt Busch
14. Ryan Newman
15. Clint Bowyer
16. Tony Stewart
17. Austin Dillon
18. Jamie Mac
19. Greg Biffle
20. Paul Menard
21. Martin Truex Jr
22. Aric Almirola
23. Sam Hornish Jr
24. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
25. Aj Dinger
26. Brian Vickers
27. Danica Patrick
28. Trevor Bayne
29. Justin Allaiger
30. Casey Mears
Twitter - @MattAleza
Saturday, January 17, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Denny Hamlin
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Hamlin had a very up and down 2014 season. Never was really consistent , but was able to find a way to be in championship contention at the right time. How he does in 2015 could be all depended on JGR as a whole. Clearly they were down on power in 2014.
At Intermediate venes , Hamlin have proven to be a reliable threat any given weekend. Texas,Homestead,Kansas,Charlotte,Darlington and Las Vegas are probably the most popular places to use him. Beyond that it hard to say. More hit and miss type deal. I would use him at those tracks and play the waiting game one the rest.
Hamlin was once a mastermind on the flats. Past few seasons he been good. But from 2006-2010 he was phenomenal. Still probably one of the best in the business. Pocono and Indy been kind to him from career standpoint. In 9 career Indianapolis races , Hamlin have 4 Top 10s and 6 Top 20s. At Pocono in 18 starts , Hamlin have 4 wins and 11.8 average finish. Over past two seasons, Hamlin have collected finishes of 3rd and 18th. At Pocono Hamlin been very reliable over past 2 seasons. Outside of an 43rd in 2013. DH have finishes of 4th,9th and 8th.
New Hampshire could be considered his best flat. In 18 career races , Hamlin have 10.5 average finish and 2 wins. He been average past 2 seasons. Only 1 Top 10 in past 4 races. Including two finishes outside top 20s. Like I said last season , I believe Denny will never be the same after that serious crash few years back. I can tell you by experience. Its take awhile to recover from that. If ever.
Martinsville probably his top short track. Over past 3 races , Hamlin best finish been 7th and 11.3 average finish. In his career Hamlin have 6 wins at Martinsville. At Bristol Hamlin been inconsistent. But have shown promised here more times then not. Over his past 4 Bristol Hamlin have 91.0 driver rating with a 24.2 average finish. I can tell you that the average finish doesn't match. Average running position probably could back up my claim.
Not even sure what happened to Hamlin at Richmond lately. In his past 3 races at RIR , Hamlin best finish is a staggering 21th. His driver rating is an 77.8. Just terrible. Last spring was running in the teens before spinning. Just wasn't very competitive at either race.
At Plate venues Hamlin was pretty much unstoppable. He just couldn't find a way to finish bad. Meh okay maybe that taking it too far. In 4 races , Hamlin had an 6.7 average finish and 3 Top 10s. Including 2 Top 2 finishes. From career point of view , Hamlin been hit or miss. A lot of luck involved. But that a given right?
At road courses I usually try to think positive. But Denny not even batting .500 at Top 20 in 18 career starts. 8 Top 20s and 10 finishes outside top 20s. Hard to give someone credit who haven't earned it. Much better places to use Hamlin. At best he is an top 20 option and that isn't a sure thing with Hamlin track record.
I am not gonna sit here and tell you how great Hamlin is. We all know that. Anyone in JGR caliber equipment will have a chance to performance well. I feel like pairing of Rogers and Hamlin will either worked out very well or very poorly. Hamlin best tracks will be the Intermediates , flats and shorts. Plate tracks I am not sold on. Every year a new driver seems to get hot on this type track. Typically outside of a few plate specialist , it a new driver. Wouldn't bank on Denny being the golden goose.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Dale Jr
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Dale Jr been one of the most consistent forces in Nascar since 2012. He haven't won a lot outside of 2014. But usually good for least a top 10. Really reminds me of a more popular Matt Kenseth. I mean c'mon the similarities. Consistency. Nice all around guys. Poor qualifiers. Average in practice but anyways find way to score respectable finishes.
Most Intermediate venues will likely be middle of the road among his best tracks. Why? Because he so good at shorts , flats , and plate tracks. Plus there a lot of them. Doesn't mean he terrible at them though. Actually been pretty good at them. Over past two seasons , his best track been Las Vegas. Most people don't of Vegas as his best intermediate track. In fact 6 of past 7 Vegas races have resulted in 10th or better. Including two runner-ups. There plenty of other good places to use him at too. Like Kansas , Michigan , Darlington , Dover , Texas , Kentucky , etc just to name a few.
Look I don't need to tell you how good Dale Jr is on Intermediate racetracks. He's a reliable option with plenty of upside. Enough said. Moving on to flats.
I get the feeling Dale Jr doesn't get the enough credit on the flats. In 2014 , Dale Jr was among the series best. Had an 5.7 average finish at those tracks. Including two wins and a second place finish. Mighty impressive. Pocono been his best track. In 2014 , Dale Jr sweep Pocono. Some would say luck. I would agree but then looked up his stats. 7 of past 8 races been 9th or better. Including 4 straight Top 5s. That not luck. Pocono have become one of Jr's best tracks.
Phoenix is another good flat for Dale Jr. Since 2013 , he have 4.5 average finish and 4 straight top 10s. Dale been one of the best since the repave. Before 2013 he was pretty decent to say the least. Even with HMS equipment. Good but never great. Also helped Steve was a mastermind atop the pit box.
New Hampshire been his worst flat track which is saying something. Actually have great stats here recently. I mean Dale Jr have 3 Top 10s in past 4 races. Worst finish of 14th. Seems crazy. But that 14th is the only finish outside top 10 since beginning of 2013. Enough said.
Indianapolis is another good flat for Dale Jr. He finished 6th in 2013. Followed that up with an 9th in 2014. Not terrible for someone who not known for his track record at Indy. In 15 career races , Dale Jr have 18.8 average finish and 5 Top 10s. 2 of them in past 2 seasons.
Plate tracks can be considered Junior Island. He is pretty much a lock for least 50% of every format. Going against him is the definition of going big or going home. Just ask my good buddy Garry Briggs going against the majority at Daytona 500 last season. Boy that was ugly. Point being you have home-field advantage with picking Dale Jr. Weather you choose to use is the question.
Short tracks been pretty kind to Dale Jr over past few seasons. Including Martinsville. He's the most recent winner at the half-mile short track. Since 2010 (9 races) , Dale Jr have 7 finishes inside the top 8. Had finishes of 3rd and 1st in 2014. Actually currently have 3 straight top 10s at Martinsville. Never given enough credit. Mainly due to how successful his teammates been in their career.
At Richmond recently Junior been middle of the road. 10.5 Average finish in past two seasons ranked 15th stats wise. He been consistent though. Including 6 straight finishes of 14th or better. Hard to complain about that , right? At Bristol , Dale better then record suggests over past two seasons. In 2013 he had finishes of 10th and 6th. In 2014 he finishes of 24th and 39th. What changed? Absolutely nothing. Had top 10 cars both times. Bad luck happened. Trust me his average finish is misleading. Driver rating doesn't do any good either. Since he spent majority of the time off the race leader pace.
Road course been Dale Jr weak spot during majority of his career. I say Majority because I have seen improvements of late. That huge improvements , but enough to say he headed in the right direction. Over in past 4 road courses , Dale Jr have 3 finishes in the top 12. Now it all about how he does going forward. I would recommend avoiding him. But keep tabs on him.
I went most this piece focusing on past 2 seasons. Why? I believe that the most relevant information to Junior fantasy outlook. Hard to get accuracy information from 4-5 years. Especially on how much he have improved. Expect a few wins out of Dale In 2015. Probably gonna come on the flats or Intermediate venues. You can almost count on that. Short and plate tracks also will be great places to use him. Anywhere but Watkins Glenn and Sonoma pretty much.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Thursday, January 15, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Matt Kenseth
Welcome to TimersSports
Matt Kenseth. Mr.Consistency. Mr.Reliable. All names to describe Kenseth. After tearing it up in 2013. Kenseth found success in what got him to JGR. Consistency was Kenseth in 2014. Didn't win a race , but almost always was in contention for an top 10. I always try to use Kenseth in uncertain situations. More times then not Kenseth will be a safe bet.
I feel like Intermediate venues still remains a strong suit. In 2014 , he didn't win 5 times at this type track. But fortunately was a pretty consistent. I don't need to tell you how good MK been on Intermediate tracks. 10 of his 12 career best tracks consists of Intermediate venues. That's insane. Since joining JGR nothing have changed. 9 of his best 12 tracks are Intermediate venues. Kentucky may be his best track since joining JGR though.
Since joining JGR flats been kind to Kenseth. In 12 start (excluding Pocono) , Kenseth have 8.1 average finish. Majority of the damage was done in 2013. But in 2014 , he showed consistency at Phoenix , Indy , and New Hampshire. Last season at Phoenix , Kenseth had finishes of 3rd and 12th. In 2013 only 7th and 23rd. I like that improvement. At the fall Phoenix race , Kenseth had a top 5 car all day long and posted 117.1 driver.
At New Hampshire in 2014 , Kenseth had mixed results. In the July race he finished 4th and posted a driver rating above 110. In September not so great. Started 16th and finished 21th. Kenseth was better then that though. Believe Kenseth was running in the top 10 before he found trouble in that race.
At Indy Kenseth been very good since joining JGR. Including a pair of top 5 finishes. Pretty good considering Indianapolis isn't one of Kenseth top racetracks. Let hope this trend continues into 2015 at Indianapolis.
Road Courses and Matt Kenseth haven't blended too well since he joined the Sprint Cup Series. In 30 career races , MK have 8 Top 10s. And 20 Top 20s. The general public view of him is he a terrible road course racer. Unfortunately that false. 10 of his past 16 races at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn have ended in 15th or better. Including multiple top 10s. Watkins Glenn is his better track. 2 Top 10s in past 3 seasons. 7 of last 8 have been 15th or better by the way.
Bristol is Kenseth best short track. He have 3 career wins and 12.2 average finish. Over past two seasons , MK been the King of night. In night races at Bristol , Kenseth have finishes of 1st and 3rd. Both races in 2014 Kenseth probably should have won but didn't. Kenseth had the best car in the spring but received damage late which cost him a win. In the summer race , Kenseth led to 62 laps. In fact Kenseth have led in 7th straight Bristol races.
Richmond also been a great track for Kenseth. Since joining JGR , Kenseth have three Top 10s. Other finish was 41st. Before last season lone bad finish. Kenseth had 4 straight Top 10s. Don't be fooled by his 14.5 average finish since joining JGR. It actually should be much better. At Martinsville , MK have 3 Top 10s in 4 races since joining JGR. The other finish was 14th. Kinda ironic Kenseth isn't known for being reliable at Martinsville in his career. Well he is now.
Restrictor Plate Tracks and Matt Kenseth kinda go together like mashed potatoes and gravy. I mean they're associated with each other. Every time we go to Daytona and Talladega expect to hear his name. And rightfully so. Kenseth is one of the best in the business at them. I am always willing to take chance with Kenseth.
Kenseth will be one of the consistent threats. Every single week expect an top 10 from Matt. Doesn't matter how bad he is in practice and qualifying. Matt love to play dead in practice and/or qualifying. Its kinda like gambling. Kenseth have an Ace in his hand , but why use it in practice. When there the big race coming up. Kenseth good everywhere. Cannot say there a bad place to use him. I usually look for trends and go from there.
Twitter - @MattAleza
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Kyle Larson
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Kyle Larson had a unbelievable rookie season while coming close to victory lane. Last time a rookie was that good , it was probably either back in 2005 (Kyle Busch) or 2006 (Denny Hamlin). His best tracks were the Intermediate and flats race venues. Plate tracks were his weakness unfortunately. Kind felt the lack of NNS experience hurted him in this area. Even though 50% of the battle is luck.
At Intermediate tracks in 2014 , Larson was at his best. His best tracks were Chicago , Texas and Atlanta. All three tracks are wore-out surfaces. Both Texas races ,Larson was impressive at. He was better in the spring and finish 5th. Chicago he was stellar once again. Started 10th and finished 3rd. Posted a 110.1 driver rating. At Atlanta , Larson started 3rd and finished 8th. Didn't have a great car , but good enough. I feel like Atlanta fits Larson driving style. Definitely a place where he could find more success in the immediately future.
I was quite surprised by how well Larson did on flats in 2014. In 7 races , Larson had an 8.7 average finish. His best track was New Hampshire. Had finishes of 2nd and 3rd. Didn't have a winning type car either time. Posted 99.1 driver rating in both races. Which suggests he had an top 10 caliber car both times.
At Pocono , the tricky triangle was no match for young Kyle Larson. Larson posted resulted of 11th and 5th. In fact he also started on the pole in the August race. In those two races , Larson had 95.7 driver rating and led 7 laps. I personally didn't see that coming. If you did , please tell me tonight winning lottery numbers.
Indianapolis was another good track in 2014 for Larson. In that race Larson started 15th. While leading 15 laps and finished 7th. Had 104.4 driver rating. He definitely didn't luck into a solid finish. I feel like Larson have a knack for larger flats tracks.
On short tracks Larson was better then I expected. I was impressed by his performance at Bristol. Arguably his best race was at the spring race where he ran top 5 for good portion of the race. Until a late caution caused Larson to lose his track position. The fall race Larson started 40th and finished 12th. Was never super competitive in that event unfortunately. Had a teen type car mainly.
At Richmond Larson been pretty decent. Had finishes of 11th and 16th in two races in 2014. From a pure performance standpoint those were one of his worst races. Was never nothing more then top 15 driver. He need to improve at Richmond in 2015. Martinsville can be considered one of Larson worst tracks. In 3 career races , Larson best finish is 27th. 2 of 3 races have ended in DNFs.
On road courses Larson at a young age have showed great promise on road courses. That is very impressive. Most drivers get better with more experience. At Sonoma Larson had top 10 car before having mechanical issues. At Watkins Glenn , Larson struggled all weekend long. But in the end raced his way into an top 5 finish.
I would avoid Larson at Daytona and Talladega until he proves he an legit plate racer. So far in his career , Larson have finishes of 9,17,36 and 38. Talladega was the kinder track though. Had an 13.0 average finishes in 2 races. At Daytona , Larson best finish was 36th. Altogether Larson had 25.0 average finish in 4 races.
I said once and I will say it again. Larson will not win once but least twice. There my bold prediction for the 2015 season. I am very high on Kyle Larson for upcoming season. His best days will come on the worn out surfaces. Something about them he loves. New Hampshire , Texas , Atlanta , Chicago and among other fits that category. Intermediate and flats will be the places that Larson likely wins on. Also believe Bristol and the pair of road courses will good as well.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Ryan Newman
Welcome to TimersSports
Ryan Newman was one of the most consistent drivers in quite a long time. More then that he overcame the odds and finished 2nd in the championship standings. He just one position away from reaching almighty glory. Unfortunately the down side is Newman unlikely to repeat his stellar 2014 season.
At Intermediate tracks expect mainly low-teen like results with upside of single digits finishes from time to time. At high-speed Intermediate tracks , he have plenty of good venues. Dover is arguably his best career track. In 26 starts , Newman have 3 wins and 13.4 average finish. 5 of his past 8 races have resulted in 21th or worse. But two of the past 3 races have resulted inside the top 10. Last June he finished 31st. Was running inside top 10 before a mechanical issue occurred just before a pit stop.
Atlanta , Charlotte and Kentucky are other good tracks for Newman. Darlington could be Newman best track overall where he haven't won at. 4 of the past 6 races have resulted in 10th or better. From career standpoint , Newman only have 4 races where he finished outside top 20. 11 of 16 races were in the top 10. Kentucky actually been a great track for Newman. Realistically better then his stats suggests. Minus his one bad finish , Newman have an 7.0 average finish in 3 races.
Michigan is one of Newman's best tracks. In 27 career starts , Newman have two wins. 7 of past 8 races have resulted in 15th or better. Mr.Reliable at Michigan since 2011. Finished 11 and 15 in 2014 with RCR.
At flats he been a top notch option in his entire career. Pocono is his best track among flats. He have 5 straight Top 8 finishes. 13 straight Top 15s. 23 of 26 races have resulted in 18th or better. That's insane. Newman love Pocono. With consistency like that , I would too. New Hampshire is another good venue for Newman. Since 2012 , Newman been a teen-like driver. 5 of those 6 races were 18th or better. 3 of those 5 were either 10th or 5th place finishes though.
At Indianapolis Newman is little overrated. In 2013 he won at home state track. But wouldn't bank on that to represent his fantasy outlook. In 14 career starts , Newman have a 17.2 average finish. Past 3 seasons ,Newman have finishes of 11,1,7. Of the 3 races , I feel like last season 11th best describes Newman potential value. In his career , he have mainly finishes from 11th to 20th. Phoenix been one of his better flats. Since his win in 2010 (10 races) , Newman have 8 finishes of 11th or better. Including 5 Top 5s. He usually good for least a low-end (latter) top 10 finish.
Short tracks you can definitely depend upon Ryan Newman. At Richmond , he been rock solid. Stats wise this is probably his top track. In 26 career races , Newman have 11.2 career finish and 1win. Since 2011 , Newman scored 5 of 7 races in the top 9. All 7 races inside the top 15. Dating back to 2003 (23 races) , Newman have 19 finishes of 15th or better. 22 of 23 races were 20th or better.
Martinsville been a inconsistent track for Newman. As of late , he been so-and-so. 2 Top 5s since 2012. But unfortunately Newman also have 3 finishes of 20th or worse. Hard to say weather or not Newman can be trusted. Kinda a wait and see type deal. At Bristol , I feel like Newman is underrated. In his past 13 races (since 2008) , Newman have 11 finishes inside top 16. 6 of those were inside top 8.
At road courses Newman been decent at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn. At Sonoma , 11 of 13 were in the top 18. Actually only finish outside top 20. Now that's isn't the track record of a Jeff Gordon. But isn't terrible either. At Watkins , he been pretty bad from career standpoint. But 4 of the past 5 have been from 11th to 16th. Kinda like results at Sonoma.
At Daytona and Talladega , its really just taking a shot into the dark. Newman usually good for an top 20 at both venues. His career at average finish have hovered around that mark for awhile as well. There better options out there. But RCR speed will keep Newman relevant.
Look I don't expect him to back his 2014 season. That will be hard to do consistency wise. I also believe Newman will go winless. The runner-up curse all too real. Only driver recently been to overcome the curse was Brad Keselowski in 2013. Expect his best races to at Intermediate venues and flats tracks. Pocono, Richmond and Michigan are the tracks that I would considering him at the most. Just get the feeling he does his best at those venues.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Kurt Busch
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Kurt Busch had a interesting offseason to say the least. But that irreverent to the 2015 nascar season. Kurt had a down year overall , but he came around in the final three races. The changing of the crew chiefs was something I loved. Kurt and Tony Gibson really understands each other.
On Intermediate track expect latter single digits to mid teen results on high-speed Intermediate tracks. Atlanta is probably his top track. He have won 3 times in 24 starts. Since 2010 , his worst finish is 13th. Including one win and 4 finishes in the top 6. Chicago , Texas and Kentucky are another solid places to use Kurt Busch at. Expect least teen-like results at those venues.
Auto Club may be his best track overall. Since 2009 (8 races) , Kurt have 6 finishes in the top 9. Including 3 straight finishes in the top 10 (back-to-back top 5). With an 5.6 average finish. Michigan quite possibly one of Kurt worse tracks from a career stand point. He a two time winner in 28 starts , but only have 6 finishes inside the top 10 outside those wins. He only have one top 10 since 2010 (9 races).
Flats tracks always been a great type track for Kurt Busch. Pocono , Phoenix , and New Hampshire ranks among his best 8 track (career stats). Phoenix is a strange track. In the fall , he been one of the most consistent drivers since 2008 (7 races). With finishes of 7,5,8,22,9,6 and 2 for 8.4 average finish. In the spring since 2008? 21.4 average finish. 0 Top 10s in his past 3 spring races.
At New Hampshire , Busch been off lately. In his past 7 races , he have 7 straight races of 13th or worse. 5 of those 7 races have resulted in 22nd or worse. 3 of 5 races were worse then 30th. In 2014 , Busch had finishes of 36th and 14th. From 2008 to 2010 , he had 5 straight races in the top 6. Busch last win at Pocono was 2007. But since 2009 (10 races) , Busch have 7 Top 10s including 5 finishes of 6th or better. Also Busch have 8 qualifying efforts in the top 6 in that span. 3 of the past 4 have either ended in 3rd or 7th. Last season Busch had pair of strong finishes.
Indianapolis by far his worst flat track. In 14 career races , Busch have 8 Top 20s. So far so good. Only 3 of those were in the top 10 unfortunately. Of the other 6 races , five finishes were 27th or worse. Including finishes of 36 ,40 and 41. Not exactly a track he will have a lot of upside at.
Road courses will be a strong spot for Busch. Sonoma is his better track though. Busch seems to always run well there. Even in 51 car Busch was pretty competitive few years back. Almost won that race. Since 2011 , Busch have 4 finishes in the top 12. 3 of them were 4th or better. Watkins Glenn isn't a widely known strong track for Kurt. But don't be fooled , he made strides of late. Since 2008 (7 races) , Busch have 5 Top 10s. From 2001 to 2007 , Busch had only 3 Top 15s and best finish of 10th. In 2014 at Watkins Glenn he finished 3rd and was one of the most competitive drivers.
Short track been up and down for Busch his whole career. He have had some great finishes and some poor ones. Pretty much like any other driver. At Richmond , Busch have an 17.7 average finish including 1 win. Over past 4 races , Busch have 3 Top 10s. All three race he had over 100 driver rating. Which suggests he didn't luck into them.
Martinsville been a terrible track for Kurt. Don't be fool by last season win. His last top before his win in 2014? All the way back in 2005. In 29 career starts , he have 3 top 10s. Bristol is Busch best short track. In 29 career starts , he have 5 wins and 14.5 average finish. Unfortunately lately Busch been inconsistent as heck. 2 Finishes outside of 30th and 2 finishes inside the top 5 past two seasons. I feel more lucky at playing the lottery.
If you have watched Busch over the years at Daytona and Talladega, then you already know his history. 28 of 42 races have resulted in the top 10 combined at the two venues. Neither venue been kind to him lately. At Talladega , 4 of the previous 7 races have resulted in 30th or worse. His record recently been better at Daytona. Past two seasons , he been much better in the summer race. Both races in the top 6. The Daytona 500? Both races ended outside top 20.
Look I am not saying Kurt Busch gonna go out and win 6 or 7 races , but I expect a multi-win season out of Kurt. I felt like Busch struggled early on in 2014 due to he wasn't comfortable with SHR. In 2015 it won't be a issue. Flats, road courses and Intermediate tracks will be the places to use him. I feel like Busch will be overlook a lot early in the season. Hoping for a few good finishes in first 12 races. Would love that kind of fantasy value.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Monday, January 12, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Kasey Kahne
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Kahne had a very Kahne-like 2014 season. Not great , but just enough to stay relevant. Kahne will be far from consistent and that a given. His best days will be on Intermediate tracks and flats. Those are the places to use him. I feel like this is a make or break type year. Even with a contract deal in-place , I feel like HMS gave him a deal to avoid silly season drama.
Intermediate tracks will be Kahne strongest area. In his career , 10 victories have came on this type track. Last season his lone win came at Atlanta. Charlotte is his best track and it isn't very debate. Since his debut he have an 11.3 average finish and 4 wins. Since joining HMS in 2012 (6 races) , Kahne have 6.1 average finish and 5 Top 10s. From 2006 to 2009 (8 races) , he had 5.7 average finish and 6 finishes of 3rd or better. Including 3 wins.
Las Vegas another good track for Kahne. Past two seasons , he have an 5.0 average finish and 115.1 driver rating. In 2013 , he was dominated. Led 114 laps and 138.1 driver rating. He posted three straight races of 91.0 or better driver ratings. Had 13.5 average finish in 11 career races.
Since joining HMS , Kansas been a strong spot for Kahne. Much stronger in the spring then fall. In the spring , he have 4.3 average finish and 2 Top 5s. All three races with finishes of 8th or better. In the fall , he been decent. In three races he have 13.6 average finish with finishes of 15 and 22 past 2 seasons.
At larger tracks , he been solid at his best. Michigan he been excellent since joining HMS. Excluding his two bad finish in 2013 & 2012 (June races). Kahne have 4 finishes of 16th or better. 3 Of those were in the top 10 in 6 starts. Over past 2 seasons at California , he posted 25.0 average finish. He much better then that though. Last season he was victim of the tire failures and finished 41th. From 2010 - 2013 (4 races) , Kasey had 4 finishes in the top 15. 3 Of them were either 9th or 3rd. Had a 9.0 average finish in that span as well.
At flats Kahne seems to excelled on the larger tracks. Pocono is a strange track for Kahne. Since joining HMS in June race he have 3 finishes of 36,41 and 29. For average finish of 35.6. In the August race , he have finish of 10,1, and 2. For average finish of 4.3. Not a gambler , but I would put money on the August race over June.
Indianapolis been a great track for Kasey lately. Especially past few seasons. Since 2012 , Kahne have 7.0 average finish and all three races had 91.0 driver rating or better. Past two seasons , he been stellar. 4.5 Average finish and driver rating above 110.0 in both races. In 2014 , Kahne finish 6th. But he was much better. Led 70 laps and posted 132.7 driver rating. In 2013 finished 3rd and had 116.4 driver rating.
At New Hampshire , Kahne been pretty darn good performance wise. Since he clipped the top 5 in both during 2012 season (1st , 5th). In past 4 races , he been better in the June race. Past 2 seasons , Kahne have pair of 11th place finishes. In September? 23rd and 37th finishes. From July 2011 to July 2014 (8 races) , Kahne posted driver rating between 95.1 and 131.5. 7 Of those races resulted in 15th or better. In 2013 he finished 37th. But led 31 laps after starting 2nd.
Kahne have new Phoenix figured out. Least in the fall. Since winning in November of 2011 , Kahne have average finish of 7.0 including 3 finishes of 7th or better. In spring he been trending in the right direction. In 2012 finished 34th. 2013 It was 19th and 2014 it improved to 11th. Not too bad at all.
Road courses will be tricky. Kahne much better at Sonoma then Watkins Glenn. But Kahne rarely get any credit for being a much improved road course racer. In his past 6 races at Sonoma , Kahne have 8.5 average finish. 5 of those 6 races , Kahne posted a driver rating above 90.0. He finished 20th in other race. 3 Of those 5 races , he posted driver ratings above 100.0. At Watkins he yet to score a top 10. But since 2008 (7 races) , he have 5 finishes from 12th - 17th. Including two of the past 3 seasons.
At short tracks Kahne been decent. His best track is Bristol and it isn't close. Minus last season August race , Kahne have an 5.0 average finish and 4 finishes of 9th or better since 2012. At Martinsville , Kahne have 2 Top 5s since joining HMS. Unfortunately past 3 races have resulted in 27,22 and 40. Not exactly stellar stats. At Richmond since September 2012 Kahne actually been predictable. 4 of those 5 races have resulted in finish from 12th to 17th. The other finish was 21th.
At plate tracks , Kahne been inconsistent to say the least. Daytona been a train wreck. Since joining HMS , only 1 Top 10. His next best finish is 27th. That's just terrible. At Talladega however , lady luck been on his side. Over past 6 races , Kahne have 4 finishes of 12th or better. From a career standpoint , both venues been terrible for Kahne.
I believe Kahne will be inconsistent and will likely disappoint more then a few times. But that doesn't mean he cannot have a productive year. Use him at the Intermediate venues. Especially Charlotte and Michigan. Larger flats and Sonoma will also be nice places to unload Kahne. At end of the day , Kahne needs to prove everyone wrong that he's just a pretty boy. Good looks don't win races. Good drivers do.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Sunday, January 11, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Greg Biffle
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One of the most disappointing individuals in 2014 was the Biff. The 46 years old driver didn't reach victory nor really contend much at all. Only two seasons after dominating the regular season in 2012. The regression of RFR was a big reason for the poor results. Not all can pinned on RFR though. Biff needs to become a leader in 2015. One of the biggest questions heading into 2015 season been can RFR rebound this season? That's a difficult question to answer. This solely depends on your personal opinion and beliefs. I honestly do. I truly believe Biff and co will be better in 2015.
Intermediate tracks will be the Biff strength. RFR always brings fast cars to these venues. Expect that to continue in 2015. Texas can be considered his top high-speed Intermediate track. Due to how consistent he been. Over the past 5 races , Biff have an 7.6 average finish. Last time he finished outside top 15? April 2008.
Kansas is another popular venue for Biff. Since Fall 2012 , Biff just haven't been right. In that span , he have a average finish of 18.0 and highest individual driver rating of 83.3 in those six races. From fall 2004 until spring 2012 (10 races) , Biff had a 4.8 average finish. What changed? Repave between the fall and spring 2012 races. Kansas like a new track. To Biff it is.
Dover , Charlotte , Miami and Las Vegas are other popular tracks. Las Vegas been a somewhat iffy track. Since 2010 have an 16.0 average finish with 3 of those races resulting in 15th or worse. From to 2010- 2012 (3 races) , he had 110.2 driver rating and 13.6 average finish. Past two seasons he been terrible. With 19.5 average finish and 64.5 driver rating. No consequences that RFR went south start of 2013 when Kenseth left and their performance did too.
Dover was once a great track for Biffle. From 2005 to 2010 , he had 9 finishes of 8th or better. Including 2 wins. Since (8 races)? 1 Top 10 and that was a 9th in 2013. Even though most of his results been in the teens. Charlotte and Homestead been decent tracks for Biff. But not that great either. Been up and down his entire career at both track. Kinda feel like Biff get more credit then he deserves. The team he drives for could have a big reason for that. Stat wise (career) , Charlotte and Homestead ranked as 16th/17th best tracks. Similar rankings in past 2 seasons among average finish.
Michigan is a great larger track for Biff. Over past 6 races , Biff have an 7.5 average finish. Including two wins. In 32 career races ,he have an 11.5 average finish. That's pretty darn good. At ACS , he been good times over the years. 2 of the past 3 races have resulted in top 10s.
Flats tracks been pretty good for Biff in his career. In 2014 , he was pretty darn consistent. Posted a lot of teen results. But was reliable. Indy is his best track (career pov). In 12 career starts , Biff have 13.3 average finish. Finish in the top 8 from 2008 to 2012. Finished 24 and 13 past two seasons. Last season 13th was definitely a improvement from 2013. In 2013 , he finished a lap off the pace.
Pocono been a great track past few seasons. Biff turned a corner recently here. 3 Of the past 4 races have resulted in 10th or better. Biff won in 2010. I believe that was the turning point. Most recently ( since June 2013) , I believe Biff have found something to more consistent at Pocono.
Since winning in July 2008 , Biff have only 4 Top 10s in past 12 starts at New Hampshire. Haven't been a stellar track. But he consistently finishing in the teens. Becoming more of a predictable option of late at NHMS. At Phoenix he been pretty average. Knocked off a few top 10s , but have trended more towarded an teen-type fantasy option. Expect low-end top 10 finish at best.
At plate tracks , I almost always try to use Greg Biffle. More times then not it ends in a good points day. The RFR cars seems to always be fast. Almost like they have a slight advantage over majority of the field. They have found a lot of success here. No reason to think it will change in 2015. Even if RFR have a down year , I would highly consider the Biff.
Short tracks remains to be a weakness for the Biff. Even though I believe he is greatly underrated. Martinsville probably his worst track career wise. But have found something positive lately. 3 Of the past 5 races have resulted in 9th or 10th. His previous two results (2014) , he have finishes of 18 and 13 though. Still before 2013 , he had 2 Top 10 at Martinsville.
Bristol been a very good track. In 24 career races , Biff have an 11.9 average finish. Past 4 races all have been 12th or better. Which tells me he been a reliable fantasy option. Biff underrated for the most part.
Richmond is probably his second best short track. Over his career , he have 17.0 average finish. Over past 6 races had few good races. Including 18.1 average finish. Minus his lone back finish in 2013 , Biff had an 14.6 average finish. Typically that in his range of usually finishes at short tracks. From September 2004 to September 2006 (5 races) , Biff have 5 straight races with finishes of 8th or better.
At road courses , most people don't think of Greg as a good option. But past few years he have turned a corner. After only having 2 Top 10 from 2003 to 2011 at Watkins Glenn. Biff have scored 2 Top 10s in past 3 seasons. Including results of 6th and 8th. At Sonoma , Biff been great. 6 Of 12 career races have resulted in 10th or better. 4 of them have came in previous 5 starts. He doesn't get enough credit at either place.
Weather or not Biff returns to championship form depends on RFR improvements. I believe he will be better then 2014. Unfortunately at 46, you have to wonder how much is left in the tank. Biff best days will come Intermediate track , flats , plates tracks and road courses. His main weakness may come at short track. Even though I think he underrated most of the time at them. Biff have a lot to prove and many more to prove wrong. Can he did it? Time will tell.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Saturday, January 10, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Tony Stewart
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Tony Stewart been under the radar since winning his last championship in fantasy nascar. I believe he still more then capable of being that guy again. Look for him to start the season off sluggish , but once the calendar flip to June. That where Smoke becomes relevant. I usually don't use Smoke until the first Pocono race. Don't really see the point.
Intermediate tracks have been a strength for Smoke in his career. Honestly in 2014 , he wasn't quite as bad as I thought. Only had 3 bad races. Outside of those races , he had only 2 races (Charlotte II , Kansas I) worse then 18th. Should be noted at those races , he finished 20th and 21st. Most of his races he finished in the low to mid teens. He was even stronger at larger tracks. Had an 8.0 average finish between the tracks of California and Michigan.
Smoke always been a strong flat track racer. 2014 was a bit down performance wise. But no doubt he knows how to find success on them. Let look at his career numbers and recent race data.
Indy could be his best track among the flats from a career standpoint. In 16 career races , Smoke have an 8.5 average finish and 2 wins. Finished 17th in 2014. But finished in the top 10 in 9 of the previous 10 races at IMS. Hard to not like him at Indianapolis. Pocono is my personal favorite track to use Smoke at. In 36 races , Smoke have an 11.8 average finish. In 2014 , he finished 36 and 13. Since July 2005 , he had only 3 finishes worse then 15th. 16 finishes of 13th or better. Hard to beat that. That almost a decade span.
New Hampshire is a very good track for Smoke. In 31 career races , he have an 12.3 average finish. Finish 36th and 7th in 2014. Recently been better in the summer race. 3 Top 10s in his last three summer races. The Fall been pretty messy for Smoke. Smoke been good at Phoenix in his career. Unfortunately since the repave , Smoke been pretty unreliable at Phoenix. Something to consider.
At short tracks , Smoke been inconsistent recently. Had 2 Top 5s in 2014. Outside of that , Smoke short tracks been iffy. He will hold value at short tracks.
Richmond probably his best track for a career point of view. He have 3 wins and 11.2 career average finish. Even though over his previous 3 races at RIR , Smoke average finish is 19.3. But on the plus side , the previous 4 races Smoke had an 4.6 average finish. So basically an 11.9 average finish altogether. Slightly below his average for his career.
Martinsville been a decent track recently for Stewart. Kinda overrated in my opinion. More hype then his record can back up. 6 Of the past 10 races have resulted in 17th or worse. 4 Of them were 24th or worse. Not exactly good numbers at any track.Bristol been pretty unkind to Smoke. Since 2006 , Smoke have 3 finishes inside the top 10. That's is terrible. Then again Bristol never been a strong track for Smoke. I would avoid him at Bristol. Despite his 4th place finish in 2014.
Road courses will be a solid area for Smoke. He always had a knack for running well at them. Behind Gordon , Smoke have the most wins. Watkins Glenn is the preferred over Sonoma though. Both are good spots to use Smoke. Side note on Sonoma , I feel like he have fallen off a bit there. Still a useful option , but not what he been at WGI.
Plate track been a down trending type track for Smoke. But I will give him benefit of the doubt. I am sure he can deliver top notch results. But recent results there have me wanting to stay away. Least until he get back to his old self at Daytona and Talladega. Just for the record , I wouldn't use him at the 500 even if he was on a hot trend.
I don't know what to expect from Smoke. As I stated in the Profile , I think Smoke could have a very good season in 2015. My fellow writers must feel the same way we all have him from 13th - 17th range on our rankings to start the season. His best days will be Intermediate tracks , flats and road courses. The plate tracks and shorts will likely be the places to avoid him. Also it worth noting Smoke been at his best during the summer months. 2014 that was also the case. We saw a upstick in production once the weather got warmer.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Friday, January 09, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Austin Dillon
Welcome to Timerssports
Austin Dillon was a consistent performer in 2014. Didn't really show any flashes of greatness like Larson , but he was always the safer bet. Usually had an top 25 car in practice and was able to finish in the teens when the checkers waved.
Plate tracks will likely continue to be a strong suit for Dillon. In 2014 , he finished inside the top 15 at all four races. Dillon understands how to race at both Daytona and Talladega. His experience in NNS pays off big time.
Short tracks was a solid area for Dillon in 2014. Martinsville by far his best short track. He posted finishes of 13 and 15 for an 14.0 average finish. He did what he needed to do. Keep his nose clean. Bristol he had mix results. The spring race , he had a car good enough for mid-teen results. But finished 11th. The summer portion , he finished 7 laps down in 28th. Could use a little improve.
At Richmond , Dillon needs to improve at the most. Had finishes of 20 and 27. Either race did he look anything close to be competitive. Overall he needs to work his short track game. Had an 19.0 average finish in 6 races and only 3 top 15s.
At Flats , Dillon showed consistency for the most part. Had several good runs. Outside of Phoenix , Dillon had an 15.2 average finish and worse finish of 17th. New Hampshire was his best track. Had finishes of 11 and 14. Solid outcomes for a rookie. At Pocono , he had finishes of 14 and 17. Still good. Could use some improvement and try to finish closer to the top 10 in 2015.
Indianapolis was Dillon lone top 10. Kinda interested if he can back that up in 2015. Indy no cake walk for young drivers. His 89.9 driver rating encouraging though. Finally Phoenix was Dillon worst track. Had finishes of 24 and 38. Wasn't very competitive in either race. The second Phoenix race Dillon had a flat and caused him to go behind the wall for repairs. Don't remember the reason why. Was running about 20-ish at the time.
Road courses went better for Dillon then I initially expected. At Sonoma , Dillon finish 17th. Run around 20th all race long though. At Watkins , Dillon had a high-teen competitive type car. But faded on the longer runs. Eventually finished 17th. Not terrible for Dillon who isn't known for his road courses abilities.
Intermediate racetracks Dillon needs to definitely improve at. They are a big bulk of the schedule. In 2014 , he had an 18.3 average finish and 1Top 10. Dillon biggest issue was backing up a solid result. Also he didn't have many top 15 results. In year 2 , he needs to take those top 20s and turn them into Top 15s. Otherwise Dillon pretty much useless in fantasyland.
We don't have a lot to go on with Dillon. Young drivers don't have the race data for us to make an accurate and fair judgement. Especially since usually the more race data= more accurate predictions. Based on his first full season , Dillon will be strong on plate track and flats. Questionable on short tracks and Intermediate tracks. Realistically I could see a sizeable improvement from year 1 and year 2. If there gonna be any viewable improvements , expect it to on the high-speed Intermediate tracks. Probably was his biggest weakness in 2014.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Thursday, January 08, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Clint Bowyer
Welcome to Timerssports
Clint Bowyer had a tough and down 2014 season , but trust me he isn't quite that bad. In fact I believe he can contend for a championship when given a fast car each week. I wouldn't use 2014 data to judge Bowyer 2015 fantasy outlook though. I would recommended using data from 2013 and before.
Short tracks I would consider Bowyer best type track. He been great on them since joining MWR. He an elite caliber driver at Martinsville. Over past 6 races , Bowyer have an 6.0 average finish and 113.5 driver rating. Very impressive. Last 6 races were with MWR and all 6 races he posted an driver rating above 100.0.
Richmond also been a very good track. I would put it in his top 5 of all tracks. Since joining MWR , Bowyer been a big threat to win pretty much every time. Outside of two bad finish , Bowyer been money with MWR. Including an 3.2 average finish and 116.6 driver rating. Bristol been a decent track for Bowyer not stellar though. Started off well with MWR with 3 finishes inside the top 5. Unfortunately have trended downhill in his past three starts.
Road courses will be definitely a strength for Bowyer. Since joining MWR , he been one of the stronger performers overall. Sonoma will be where he does most of the damage. Watkins Glenn isn't far behind though. Both tracks are attributable places to use Bowyer at.
Bowyer is surprisingly underrated at Plate tracks. I say surprisingly because he doesn't get enough credit at either track. In 36 career starts , Bowyer have 26 finishes inside the top 20 and 15.1 average finish. Pretty darn good. Bowyer finish 3rd both times in 2014 at Talladega. Daytona wasn't quite as friendly though.
Flats tracks been up and down for Bowyer. New Hampshire is his best flat. I consider Clint underrated. Never given enough credit. Bowyer always seems to unload a fast car at NHMS. In 2012 , he showed what he could do with pair of Top 5s. In 2013 , he wasn't quite as good. Had cars capable of finishing in the top 10. 2014 he had mix results. The stats don't show he can deliver top notch finishes.
Phoenix never been a good track for Bowyer. From time to time , he will knock off a top 10. But most of the time he nothing more then a teen-like driver. At Indy , Bowyer have never finish worse then 20th. Unfortunately his best finish with MWR is 15th in 2012. Not much upside lately with him. At Pocono he been better. Over the past 6 races , he have an 9.6 average finish. His worst finish in that span is 15th. In last three races , he posted driver rating above 91.0 in all three events.
At Intermediate racetracks , Bowyer will be inconsistent and post his best results at Michigan , Dover and Miami. Those are by far his best racetracks in past few seasons. At Michigan , Bowyer is an top 10 machine. Money every single time. Dover is one of his best unknown tracks. His name rarely comes up. Hard to believe his stout 7.0 average finish over past 2 seasons get overlooked. Last time he finish worse then 10th? All the way back in September 2010. He like a guy at freaking slot machine who cannot lose.
Bowyer will post some bad finishes , but there will be more good then bad. His best days will be on short tracks and road courses. Plate and his top Intermediate tracks also will be some of his better days. Bowyer worst days will likely come on certain high-speed Intermediate tracks and flats. If there one thing we know about Bowyer , then its he tend to perform his best with motivation. After a down year in 2014 , there plenty of it.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Wednesday, January 07, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Jamie McMurray
Welcome to Timerssports
Jamie Mac probably had his best season in 2014 in quite some time. Unfortunately he showed inconsistency all season long. His biggest problem over the years been bad luck. Anytime he having day , then watch out. There a good chance we will find a way to finish poorly.
I feel like Intermediate racetracks will give him the most potential overall. Even though there also will be some terrible finishes as well. Charlotte jumps out as his best track. Many people thought it was a fluke at the All-star race. But it wasn't. He backed it up with top 5 at the 600. Past 4 races here , he have an 11.5 average finish. His 16.6 average finish in 25 career races not too shabby itself. Including two wins.
Atlanta isn't JMac best track by any means. But 4 of the past 5 races have resulted in efforts of 16th or better. Teen finishes usually his range/outlook. Texas and Kentucky are other tracks he potentially could find success at.
On the flip side , Kansas and Chicago are high-speed Intermediate racetracks to avoid JMac. Kansas been a iffy place for JMac. Last season he have strong at the 1.5 mile venue. Had an top 5 car before experiencing mechanical issues. Perfect example from the opening paragraph. Chicago not an overall strong track for Jamie outside last season solid finish. After 2010 , 5th finish JMac had 3 straight finishes outside top 20s. Before last season's 9th place finish. So he been so-and-so at Chicago.
On shorts tracks expect JMac to be very underrated. He been pretty good on all three venues. Unfortunately the results don't show it. I believe Martinsville is JMac is best track. JMac understands what it takes to be successful here. In his past 4 races , JMac have an 18.7 average finish. Seems accurate right? Wrong. Driver rating doesn't match. His 94.4 driver rating resembles an top 10 result or close to it.
Bristol is his second best short track. Over past 7 races, JMac have an 14.8 average finish. Dating back to 2010 , he have 13.6 average finish. His only bad finish was the first Bristol race of 2014. Was running competitively in the top 10 before the Harvick wreck. Richmond is another good track. Showed excellent promise in the past few seasons. Past 3 races, he have an 7.0 average finish with an 106.7 driver rating.
Flats are questionable for JMac. He will at times deliver quality results. But there room for improvements. New Hampshire been his best flat over the past 2 seasons. His worst result been 16th and have 2 Top 5s in that span. 95.5 Driver rating backs up that 9.2 average finish for the most part. Phoenix is the track I am suspicious about. He been decent past few seasons. But outside of an 10th place finish in 2014. JMac Phoenix record been pretty dull. Not a ideal place to use him honestly.
Larger Flats been good to JMac for the most part. Pocono better of the two large flats. Before 2012 , JMac was pretty average here. Then June 2012 race he turned a corner suddenly. All 4 finishes in that span have been 16th or better. Which comes to an 11.5 average finish.
Indianapolis on the other hand been bleak for JMac lately. After 3 finishes of 6th or better in four race span from 2008-2011. His last three finishes are 15,22,and 20. Not exactly stellar numbers. But if the trend continues , he is expected to have a great finish in 2015 at Indy. At least according to the pattern in his career finishes.
At road courses expect mix results. At Sonoma , you can expect a great run by JMac. But questionable if he can close the deal. At Watkins expect a results in the teens. JMac much better at Sonoma just for the record. And it not very debatable either.
JMac is fool gold at plate races. There always will be a small chance he score an respectable finish. Unfortunately most times he will either win or finish outside the top 20. Checkers or wreckers basically. Not exactly something I want in a fantasy pick. So by all means keep picking him at Daytona and Talladega , just more fantasy points for me.
JMac will be inconsistent all season. That been his MO in his career. I think that a given. Most weekends expect him to be underrated. Why? The combo of inconsistency & the talent level of the NSCS field. I think his best days will on the shorts and high-speed Intermediate tracks. Also Sonoma isn't a bad place to use him. His worse days will likely come unexpectedly. For JMac it usually does.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Tuesday, January 06, 2015
2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Paul Menard
Welcome to Timerssports
If you have played fantasy nascar awhile , then there probably a good chance that Paul Menard have burned you. If you have recently started to play fantasy nascar , don't worry. The Nard dog will find you. Menard usually find bad luck at the worst times. More specifically , he have a bad habit of turning a good car into a poor finish.
On the flip side , Menard is known to take a crappy car and score a respectable top 10 from time to time. To me Menard is unpredictable and most seasons a streaky driver. Also Menard have a bad habit of finishing well in the first 12 races before bottoming out. Usually his best days will be on Intermediate racetracks.
Intermediate racetracks will likely be the places he have any kind of fantasy relevancy. Las Vegas stands out in the past few seasons as his best high-speed Intermediate racetrack. Had a car capable of winning last season. Real bullet on the long run in that race. Kansas probably his second best track. 10.75 average finish and 3 Top 10s in previous four races. 90.8 Driver rating not too shabby either.
Menard also shown promise on larger Intermediate tracks. Michigan stands out as his best racetrack over the past 2 seasons. In past 4 races , Menard have 3 Top 5s and 6.5 average finish. 99.5 driver rating suggests he didn't luck into them. Auto Club also isn't a bad place for Menard. He have an 8.5 average finish and 2 Top 10s in past two races.
Short tracks will be questionable in 2015. Past few seasons , he haven't been terrible. Unfortunately he haven't been great either. Bristol probably Menard best short track. In the past 4 races , Menard have an 11.2 average finish and 3 Top 10s. Menard doesn't get enough credit at Bristol. When we go to Bristol his name rarely comes up. Richmond and Martinsville pretty identical least stats wise. I believe Menard pretty underrated at both venues. Expect teen-like results at both tracks.
On Flats some of worse results will be recorded. But he will have his opportunies to shine, too. His best shorter flat track probably would be New Hampshire. He's have an 18.2 average finish in his past 4 races. 73.9 driver rating backs it up. Phoenix is his second best flat. His average finish is an 20.5 over his past 4 races. His best result in that span was 16th.
Larger Flats been more kind however. Since winning at Indy in 2011 , Menard have actually found decent success. 4 Of his 7 other races at Indy have resulted in 20th or better. Unfortunately he also have finishes of 34th , 41st and 29th. In fact , before last season dust up with Juan Pablo Montoya. He had finish of 14th , 1st , 14th and 12th from 2010 - 2013 races at IMS.
When we talk underrated at Pocono , I think automatically of Paul Menard. The average Nascar fan would say Menard terrible at Pocono judging by initial stats. But that inaccurate. From June 2010 to August 2012 , Menard had finishes of 16,13,14,10,9 and 11. Which is an 12.1 average finish.
Previous four races , Menard have an average finish of 30.2 with finishes of 33,26,30 and 32. All four finishes have an logically explanation though. June 2013 Menard had a flat on the final lap while running competitively running in the low teens. August 2013 , he was involved in a wreck. June 2014 Menard was running about 10th before experiencing an mechanically issue late in the event. August 2014 another wreck. If anything bad luck.
Road courses likely won't be in Menard strengths. But I am starting to see a positive trend at Sonoma. In 4 career races with RCR , Menard have an 14.0 average finish. Including finishes of 5th and 14th last two seasons. Not great , but not terrible either. Watkins Glenn however been at best interesting. Since joining RCR , Menard have an 23.2 average finish. Looking at the numbers , he have had two terrible results of 32nd (twice). Other two races been respectable with 17th and 12th. Again not terrible. You could do a lot worse.
Restrictor Plate Tracks will mostly be hit or miss. Past two seasons , Menard have been so-and-so. He had 1 Top 5 in 2013 and other three finishes of 43,26 and 21. Similar in 2014 , only 1 Top 10. Other three races he had finishes of 36,16 and 32. I expect a similar outcome in 2015.
Menard most weeks won't deliver an top notch finish , but he definitely have plenty of unseen (or overlooked) fantasy value. The key with Menard is using him at the right time. Menard will likely have the most value in the first 12 races. Beyond that you're playing with house money. Never know when the house will cash in. Intermediate tracks are the preferred tracks to use him at. His worse days will come on Restrictor Plate Tracks of Daytona and Talladega.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
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