2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Jimmie Johnson

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Jimmie Johnson enters the 2016 season as one of the titles favorites, but honestly it feels like a lifetime since Jimmie Johnson have been in the championship conversation. These last few season have seen Johnson jump out to a fast start to only stumble into deep slump as the chase approaches. And for reason unlike years past, he cannot break out of them during the chase. Will 2016? I don't think so. I expect Johnson to jump out to a fast start and then cool down as we hit second half of the season. This have re-occurred a few times now, so it no longer a fluke. It a trend.

His strongest type racetrack in 2016 will likely be the intermediate racetracks. Last season at intermediate racetracks, he compiled 16.7 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 98.9 driver rating. Johnson either wrecked out or finished inside the top 5 in 11 of the 17 intermediate racetracks in 2015. He won 5 times in 2015 and all of them came at the intermediate racetracks. One of his best intermediate racetrack is Texas, even though he is super bipolar there. He have 6 times at Texas and 5 of those wins have came in the fall race. Including 4 straight wins in the fall. Yeah he is a stud there in the fall. Over his past 4 races at Texas, he have compiled 7.0 average finish, 8.0 average running position, 10.0 average running position and 114.9 driver rating. Overall he have won 5 of the previous 7 Texas races. He have finished 9th or better in 10 of the past 12 Texas races. Including 7 Top 2 finishes in that span. In his past 12 Texas races, he have compiled 5.9 average finish (series-best), 7.6 average start (series-best), 7.7 average running position (series-best) and 117.9 driver rating (series-best). Aside from that, he also leads the series in top 5 finishes (7) and top 10 finishes (10). It pretty good to be Jimmie Johnson at Texas. I would consider Cali to be one of his best racetracks on the schedule. His career numbers are overly impressive here. He also been pretty solid recently as well. Over his past two races at Cali, he have compiled 16.5 average finish, 8.5 average start, 5.5 average running position and 117.2 driver rating. He finished 9th last season. He was dominated in 2014 and was by far the class of the field. However you recall that was that screwy goodyear fail race where everyone kept blowing tires. Johnson was a victim late in the race and cost it a easy win. He eventually finished 24th. That is his worse finish ever at Cali. His next worse finish? 16th (twice - 2003 & 2005). Overall he have knocked off 11 Top 9 finishes over his past 13 races at Cali. Including 8 Top 3 finishes from 2007 to 2011 seasons (9 races). Since? He have 3 finishes from 9th-12th place (4 races). Then he had that one poor finish in 2014, but he pretty dominated that day, so hard to go against him at Cali. He may not finish up in the top 5 each race here, but he will have a major threat to cause damage. Honestly his best intermediate racetrack actually could be Dover, considering he have 10 wins there. But most of you knew that already. He also will run well at Charlotte (wrecked out in both races last season), Kansas, Chicago, Atlanta and Las Vegas.

Short tracks will be a  major strength for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Last season at the shorts (Martinsville, Bristol and Richmond), he compiled 10.8 average finish, 18.2 average start, 13.3 average running position and 93.8 driver rating. Among the three shorts, he probably best at Martinsville. However his numbers have been down these past few seasons. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 20.3 average finish, 9.3 average start, 18.0 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. Last season he finished 12th and 35th. In the spring race, he got wrecked in the early part of the race and then his race just went south from there. Prior to that he finished 32nd in fall 2014. Another Martinsville race, where bad ruined his chances at a decent finishing position. Prior to those poor 35th and 32nd place finishes, he only have once finished outside of the top 12 and that was in his debut back in 2002. Johnson have been nearly unmatchable at a track that he have dominated since the 2004 season. Only a select few can be put in a class with Jimmie Johnson at Martinsville. In 28 races, he have 10 wins with 18 Top 5 finishes and 25 Top 12 finishes. More recently he also been pretty good. 5 of the previous 7 races have ended inside the top 12. Including 4 top 5 finishes since the 2012 season. He had 4 straight top 5 finishes prior to his recent finish slump at Martinsville. I expect him to get back on track in 2016 and I believe will get back in the win column or least the top 5 column.

His second best short track is probably Bristol. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 7.3 average finish, 13.8 average start, 13.5 average running position and 98.5 driver rating. He was very good here last season, as he had finishes of 4th and 2nd. He in fact have 3 straight top 4 finishes dating back to the 2014 season. 4 of his previous 7 races (dating back to 2012) have ended inside the top 4. Overall 6 of his previous 10 Bristol races have ended inside the top 4. Yeah he been pretty good at Bristol recently. He been probably at his worst at Richmond among the short tracks. Over the past 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 13.0 average finish, 14.5 average start, 10.3 average running position and 97.7 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 9th and 3rd. He have knocked off 3 straight top 9 finishes, dating back to the 2014 season. 6 of his past 8 races have ended inside the top 13. Overall 9 of his past 12 races at Richmond have ended inside the top 12. Including 7 of his past 12 Richmond races ending inside the top 10.

Road courses will be a strong spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Over the past two season at Sonoma, he have compiled 6.5 average finish, 17.5 average start, 6.0 average running position and 117.7 driver rating. He finished 6th last season, even though he had the best car for most of the race and led 45 laps. A late caution occurred and Jimmie Johnson couldn't hold off a hard charging Kyle Busch and after that he just faded through the field to 6th when the checkers waved. In 2014, he finished 7th. He have knocked off 7 straight top 9 finishes, dating back to the 2009 season. 8 of his previous 10 Sonoma races have ended inside the top 10, including a win back in the 2010 season. He been just as at Watkins Glenn. Over his past 4 races at WGI, he have compiled 19.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 14.0 average running position and 88.5 driver rating. He finished 10th last season and 28th in 2014. He have finished 4 of his past 5 races at WGI inside the top 10. Overall he have finished 7 of his past 9 races inside the top 12. Including 6 of those 9 races ending inside the top 10. So overall yeah Johnson been pretty successful at the road courses and I expect him to continue that success in 2016. Among Nascar elite drivers, I would consider him the most underrated road course racer in the series. He should be least good for top 10 finishes at both Sonoma and Watkin Glenn. More than likely, he will contend for a top 5 finish at least one of these road courses.

Shorter flats tracks aren't exactly Johnson's strongest area, but he certainly can be effective fantasy option when he needs to be. I expect him to be decent in 2016, but he will be better at the type tracks listed above though. Even though he was good last season at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Just not what he once was though. Last season at shorter flats tracks, he compiled 11.0 average finish, 8.3 average start, 13.3 average running position and 94.9 driver rating. He been better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 15.3 average finish, 10.0 average start, 11.8 average running position and 94.2 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 5th and 11th. In fact he been very consistent here over the years. 5 of the previous 6 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 11. Including 4 Top 6 finishes and 3 of those top 6 finishes have translated into top 5 finishes. Prior to the recent repave, he was dominated at this racetrack. He knocked off 10 straight top 5 finishes with 4 wins in that 10 race span from 2006 to 2011 seasons. He since have came back down to earth, but as we put more laps in at Phoenix, I believe the Johnson of old will resurface. He have found just much of success at New Hampshire, even though he have a few bad finishes lately that misleads. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire, he have compiled 18.8 average finish, 5.0 average start, 19.5 average running position and 80.2 driver rating. Truthfully his numbers are much better than that. However in July 2014, he wrecked within the first 10 laps and finished 42nd. Excluding that race, he have compiled 11.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 12.7 average running position and 95.1 driver rating. Over 8 of his past 12 New Hampshire races have ended inside the top 7. Including 6 of his past 8 races, dating back to the 2012 season. His best finish was 2nd in September 2012. In 28 career races at New Hampshire, Johnson have an stout 10.4 average finish,  3 wins, 10 Top 5 finishes and 19 Top 10 finishes. He almost a lock to finish inside the top 10 when he have trouble free races. Usually he will least contend for a top 10 finish. I expect no different in 2016!

Jimmie Johnson is probably the most underrated plate racer in Nascar, and believe me when I say that! He is very good and have proven to be one of the most reliable fantasy option out there at times. Last season on the plates (4 races), he compiled 6.8 average finish, 5.5 average start, 6.3 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. He been better recently at Daytona than Talladega. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 13.5 average finish, 12.8 average start, 15.0 average running position and 91.5 driver rating. He finished 2nd and 5th last season at Daytona. He finished 5th in the 2014 Daytona 500 as well. He got involved in a early wreck in 2014 summer race though and finished 42nd. In 2013, he won at both Daytona races (season sweep). Over the past 6 Daytona races, he have posted the top 5s (5) and tied with Dale Jr for the most top 10s (5). Only different between the two is Jimmie have had an DNF and Dale have not. Otherwise they been pretty much dead even since 2013 across the board in overall performance. At Talladega, he been more of a hit or miss type driver. Over the past 4 races at Talladega, he have compiled 16.8 average finish, 7.5 average start, 6.8 average running position and 109.0 driver rating. He finished 18th and 2nd last season. Last fall I believe he got into Kyle Larson late in the race on a restart and that alter his final finishing position. In 2014, he didn't get a good finish in either race. He had finishes of 24th and 23rd. In 2013, he had finishes of 13th and 5th. So overeall at Talladega, he been so and so. Some good finishes and some poor finishes. Even though he almost always have a strong car at Talladega.

Larger flats should be a solid spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Last season on the larger flats (3 races), he compiled 11.0 average finish, 8.0 average finish, 11.7 average running position and 101.7 driver rating. He been better at Indy than Pocono recently, but both are very good tracks for him throughout his career. Over the past 2 races at Indy, he have compiled 14.5 average finish, 11.5 average start, 12.5 average running position and 91.5 driver rating. He finished 15th and 14th over the past two seasons. Prior to 2014, he have finished 1st or 2nd in his past 5 of 8 races at Indy(dating back to the 2006 season). He been pretty good throughout his career at Pocono and should be strong there once again in 2016. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 13.5 average finish, 14.5 average start, 14.5 average running position and 96.2 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, Johnson posted finishes of 6th and 3rd. He finished 39th in August 2014, but finished 6th in June 2014. Overall he have finished 9 of his past 12 Pocono races inside the top 10. Including 4 of his past 6 races ending inside the top 6. He won at Pocono most recently in June 2013.

I like wrapping up my previews with a little summary of what I stated above. I think that is very important to do, as I understand these stats can become very confusing. Anyhow with Johnson in 2016, I expect him to be a major player this upcoming season. I think he will knock off somewhere from 3 to 5 wins and make the chase once again. I expect a majority of those wins to occur on the intermediate racetracks and short tracks. He will also perform very well at the road courses and Daytona. As well as the flats of Pocono, Phoenix, New Hampshire and Indy. However he haven't gone to victory lane at any of those tracks since the 2013 season. Overall Jimmie Johnson is one of the best all-around drivers in the series, he doesn't have an weakness. He just have weak strong points. Which isn't anything to complain about, if you are Jimmie Johnson.

*All stats from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheetSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kurt Busch

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Heading into the 2015 season, I felt like Kurt Busch was going to be in for a monster season with Tony Gibson as his crew chief and I was right about it too. Despite missing the first 3 races (through Las Vegas), he still was one of the best drivers on a weekly basis starting at Phoenix. He wasn't quite as good as teammate Kevin Harvick, but still performed like a top 5 driver most race weekends. In 2016, I expect Busch to continue his strong success with SHR. Long as Tony Gibson is crew  chief and SHR have speed, I believe Kurt will be a threat to run and finish up front.

The intermediate racetracks will be one of his strong suits in 2016! Last season he was pretty strong overall on 17 intermediate racetracks, he supported 9.9 average finish (5th-best in series) with 8.0 average running position and 107.8 driver rating. More often than not, Kurt Busch finished inside the top 10. Even though he often had a top 5 quality car. I thought his big problem was finishing out races. To me, he never could finish consistency up inside the top 5, even though he had the speed to. Out of Dover (finished 31st and 17th), he didn't really have any bad races in 2015. But most of his finishes were in the 7th-14th place range. His best racetracks among the intermediate racetracks would be Cali (best racetrack IMO), Texas, Chicago and Kentucky. I would say Cali and Texas are his best racetracks. Followed by Chicago and Kentucky. We only visit Chicago and Kentucky once per season though. I would say Cali is his best racetrack by far and quite frankly it not very close either.

Kurt Busch is a good driver on the flat short racetracks and he should perform decently in 2016. Last season on the short flat racetracks (4 races), he supported 10.3 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. He been better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the previous 2 seasons at Phoenix (minus spring 2014 race - engine issue), he have supported 6.3 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. In that 3 race span, he have finished inside the top 7 in every race. He finished 39th in his debut with SHR in spring 2014, but he blew his engine. I also feel like he was still getting use to his new team at that point. Overall 10 of his previous 15 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 10. Including 5 of his previous 7 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 8. Phoenix is considered one of Kurt's best racetracks. And that won't  change in 2016 either. He been worse at New Hampshire recently though. Over his previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 20.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 84.7 driver rating. New Hampshire isn't really a great track for him like Phoenix have been. He been alright, but a good day for him is usually somewhere in the teens. Even though he recently he had fast cars at New Hampshire. But to only receive misleading finishes. Over the past 3 races at New Hampshire (minus September 2014 - finished 36th; many laps down due to in-race issue), he have supported 15.3 average running position with 10.3 average running position and 103.3 driver rating. Over his previous 11 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished between 10th-19th place in 6 of those 11 races. He best finish is 10th twice in fact. Prior to that when he was still with Pesnke, he reeled off 5 straight top 6 finishes from June 2008 to June 2010. Since he really haven't gotten any off-the chart finishes. Overall you can expect Kurt to run strongly at times at New Hampshire, but history says he won't finish any better than 10th-19th place range. What's challenging about New Hampshire is, it is a track-position venue. Track position is key. If you get mired in mid-pack on a late restart, then you are pretty much screwed. Very tough to predict.

Road Courses will be among his strongest track racetracks in 2016. He always been a strong road course racer and that won't change anytime soon. Over the previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 7.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. He finished 2nd last season and 12th in 2014. Even though he was running inside the top 5, before Bowyer spun out and he got caught up in it. Overall he have reeled off 5 straight top 12 finishes dating back to the 2011 season. Including 4 Top 4 finishes in those 5 races. He been equally as good at Watkin Glenn. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 4.0 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 106.9 driver rating. Last season he finished 5th and 3rd in 2014. Prior to that he finished 9th place in 2013. Overall he have reeled off 7 Top 11 finishes in his previous 9 attempts. Including 5 Top 9 finishes over his previous 7 races, dating back to 2009 season. 3 of his previous top 9 finishes have ended inside the top 5. Overall the previous two seasons (4 races) at road courses, he have supported 5.5 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. He have the best average finish in the series during that span. He also have the most top 5 finishes (3), the best average running position (8.8) and the best driver rating (111.6) in the series.

Short Tracks should be a okay type racetrack for short tracks venues in 2016. Last season at short tracks (6 races - Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol), he have supported 15.5 average finish with 8.2 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. At Richmond, he supported 11.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 103.4 driver rating. Kurt Busch dominated at Richmond last spring, while leading 291 laps and won. He have finished inside the top 15 in three straight races at Richmond. Overall he have finished 5 of the previous 6 races inside the top 15. Including 4 top 9 finishes in previous 6 races. Going deeper into the data pool, he have finished 11 of the previous 18 races at Richmond inside the top 15. Including 9 Top 10 finishes in that 18 race span, dating back to the 2007 season. Obviously only 4 to 6 of the previous Richmond races are relevant, but it still good to look deeper into his career stats. He been pretty solid here over the years. That won't change in 2016 in my opinion. Kurt Busch was very at old Bristol, but haven't yet found his footing with new Bristol though. Over the previous 4 races at Bristol, he have supported 17.3 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 96.0 driver rating. Obvious his performance isn't the problem as he have ran competitively almost each time he have visited this track. His final finish position is the issue. Over the previous 6 races, he have finished inside the top 15 in 4 of those 6 races. Including two top 5 finishes in that span of 4th (March 2013 and August 2014). He also have led in 4 of those 6 races. He led the most laps in spring 2015 (last season) race, where he led 98 laps to an 15th-place finish. Noticeably he got involved in a wreck late and finished a lap down. Martinsville isn't a great track for Kurt, even though it not a terrible track for him either. However it not one that I would recommend you using him at though. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 21.3 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Now he haven't been recently, but always seems to find bad luck at Martinsville that prevents him from getting a deserving finish. Minus his lone Martinsville win in spring 2014 (he got in a wreck on pit road with Brad Keselowski by the way), he have not finished inside the top 10 since 2005. No that is no mistake. Even though he have reeled off 10 finishes between 11th-18th.

Big flats tracks should be a strength for Kurt Busch during the 2016 season. Last season on the big flats (3 races), he have supported 16.7 average finish with 15.7 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, he have supported 21.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 104.0 driver rating. He finished 37th and 5th. Doing deeper into his Pocono data over the previous 4 races, he have supported 14.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 110.1 driver rating. Outside of his 37th place finish, he have reeled off 5 straight top 13 finishes. Overall he have knocked off 6 Top 7 finishes over his previous 8 races, dating back to the 2011 season. Digging deeper into the data pool, he have reeled off 13 Top 9 finishes over his previous 20 races, dating back to the 2005 season. He haven't been quite so lucky at Indy though. Over his previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 18.0 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 80.7 driver rating. He finished 8th last season and 28th in 2014. Overall he only have 5 Top 14 finishes in his previous 10 races dating back to the 2006 season. Over his previous 5 races (dating back to the 2011 season), he have supported 21.4 average finish with 17..4 average running position and 80.9 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have finished 21st or worse in 3 of those 5 races. His lone decent finishes are 14th (2013) and 8th (2015 - last season).

Kurt Busch is a very underrated plate racer. I consider him the best plate racer to never win a points paying plate race. He never get enough respect, because he usually isn't the first guy that people think of at the plate venues. Last season at Daytona and Talladega, he have supported 9.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 84.8 driver rating. He been pretty good at Daytona and Talladega. Over the previous 3 races (2 seasons) at Daytona, he have supported 9.7 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 98.2 driver rating. Overall 6 of his previous 10 races have ended inside the top 14. 5 of those 6 races have ended inside the top 10. 4 of those 5 races ended inside the top 6. He have found same deal of success at Talladega, but at a less higher rate up front. However he have been more consistent with his top 20 finishes though. Over his previous 4 races at Talladega, he have supported 15.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. He have reeled off 3 straight Top 12 finishes at Talladega. 5 of the previous 8 races have ended in 20th or better.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Brad Keselowski

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Brad Keselowski took a step back in 2015 and many people thought he had a disappointing season, even though he was posted a better average finish (11.0) than 2014's 12.6. However he posted less wins (1) and top 5 finishes (9) in 2015. Even though he posted 5 more top 10 finishes. So while his top 10 finishes were more consistent, he lost his upside which made him such a desirable fantasy option. In 2016, I expect him to remain consistent but with more upside though. I think both Penske and JGR will be strong with this 2016 race package, so I fully expect Keselowski to be least a top 10 contender every week.

He will likely be his strongest and most consistent at the intermediate racetracks. Especially the 1.5 milers. Last season on 17 races at intermediate racetracks, he supported 6.9 average finish with 8.4 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. He three times did Brad Keselowski finish outside of the top 10 and for those that are wondering he dominated the Darlington race, while leading 196 laps. That was one of the races that Nascar used the downforce package at. He was very strong on the 1.5 mile racetracks in 2015. He supported 6.5 average finish with 7.8 average running position. He finished 9th or better in all 11 races. Even though he only finished inside the top 5 in 3 races. Those three races were Kentucky, Texas and Homestead. He had the car to beat at Kentucky all weekend long, but he kept getting penalties and kept losing his track position on pit road. He dominated Texas as he led 312 laps from the pole. He was leading with a few laps ago and got passed by Johnson. He also was very strong at Homestead as he finished 3rd after leading a race-high 86 laps. His best tracks would be Kentucky, Texas, Las Vegas, and Chicago.

Keselowski also should be pretty strong on the short flat racetracks of Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season on the short flat racetracks, he supported 7.3 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 113.9 driver rating. He been really strong at both venues. I would call New Hampshire his better track, but not by much though. Over the preview 2 seasons (4 races) at New Hampshire, he have supported a series-best 5.5 average finish with series-best 4.8 average running position and series-best 125.3 driver rating. He have been stout here recently no doubt, but he always been very strong at New Hampshire. He have finished 12th or better in 9 straight New Hampshire races, dating back to the 2011 season. Overall he have reeled off 10 finishes of 12th or better in 13 career races. Including 7 Top 6 finishes and 4 of those 7 races have ended inside the top 4. Including 2 Top 2 finishes in his previous 3 races prior to last September's 12th place effort. He will be just as strong at Phoenix and have been in recent seasons. Over the previous 4 races at Phoenix (2 seasons), he have supported 5.5 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.8 driver rating. Last season he posted finishes of 9th and 6th. He have reeled off 8 straight top 11 finishes. Including 4 straight top 9 finishes and 6 Top 6 finishes over his previous 7 races, prior to finishing 9th last November. Overall on the short flat racetracks, he have reeled off 16 straight Top 12 finishes at Phoenix and New Hampshire. In those 16 races, he have an series-best 6.0 average finish with 6.8 average running position (2nd to Harvick's 6.1 ARP) and 113.5 driver rating (2nd to Harvick's 120 DR). He also leads the series in top 10 finishes (13), Top 15 finishes (16), Top 20 finishes (16) and 2nd in Top 5 finishes (8 - 2nd only to Harvick's 9 Top 5s). His last non-top 12? All the way back in November of 2011! He basically a machine on this type racetrack.

Short tracks will be another type of venue that he will be strong on in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol) , he supported 16.7 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 95.9 driver rating. By looking at the numbers, you would probably say this is a weak type racetrack for him, right? Well that false. He had a lot of bad luck last season. Finished 35th in the first Bristol race, had a issue in the first Richmond race (finished 17th) and 32nd at Martinsville (involved in wreck). His three races he didn't have problems in? He finished 2nd (Martinsville), 6th (Bristol) and 8th (Richmond). He been at his best at Richmond recently. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 7.5 average finish (2nd-best in series) with 4.0 average running position (series-best) and 122.7 driver rating (Series-best). Last season he had finishes of 8th and 17th. He was strong in the spring race and probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car, but I believe he was down a cylinder so he couldn't get going on the restarts. He was running top 10 when a late caution came out, so he pitted for 4 tires and fuel. That pretty much ended at shot he had a solid finish. He was also pretty strong in the fall race and finished 8th. He been pretty decent throughout his career. Minus his debut (Fall 2009 - finished 36th) and April 2011 (38th place finish), he have only once finished outside of the top 17. That race in 2013 where he finished 33rd. So overall, he have knocked 8 Top 15 finishes in 13 career races and T Top 10 finishes in his previous 8 races, dating back to 2012. 2 of those 3 races, he didn't finish inside the top 10? He had a top top 5 car in both events. So yeah he been good at Richmond!

He been alright at Bristol. Over the previous 2 seasons (excluding last spring race - finished 35th; misleading data) , he have supported 7.3 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 110.5 driver rating. In those 3 races, he finished 6th, 2nd and 14th. He been pretty solid at Bristol throughout his career. In 12 career races, he have knocked off 9 Top 19 finishes. Including 5 Top 6 finishes over his previous 9 races. 4 of those 5 races (80%) have ended inside the top 3. 3 of those 4 races have resulted in wins or runner-up finishes (August 2011, March 2012 & August 2014 ). I would consider Martinsville his worst racetrack most recently. Over previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 25.8 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 84.9 driver rating. Now numbers are misleading, I have seen Keselowski run very well at Martinsville and he have in the past. In fact, 6 of his first 8 races at Martinsville (March 2010 to April 2013) ended in 12th or better. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. However over his previous 4 races, he have finished 32nd or worse in 3 of 4. This stench of poor finishes (since March 2014) came right after finishing career-high 4th in October 2013. Don't be fooled though. He had top 5 potential cars in all three of the races he wrecked in at Martinsville. If he can keep his car on the track (and the lead lap), he can (and probably will) finish strong.

Big flats will likely be a strong spot for Brad and his Penske teammates in 2016. They have the horsepower advantage over most of the field and are usually very competitive! Last season on the big flats of Indy and Pocono (3 races), he supported 9.7 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 98.6 driver rating. He been very good at Pocono and Indy recently. At Pocono over his previous 4 races (2 seasons), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 102.1 driver rating. He finished 2nd and 17th last season at Pocono. Neither of the Penske cars were that good in the first Pocono race if I remember correctly. I think it the part of the season where they were lacking speed for a few races. Over his previous 9 races at Pocono (dating back to 2011 season), he have managed 5 Top 6 finishes. Including 3 Top 2 finishes. Overall he have managed 8 Top 18 finishes in those 9 races. He also been pretty good at Indy, but there less data to go on though. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 11.0 average running position and 14.5 average running position and 94.1 driver rating. He have finished 12th and 10th over the previous 2 seasons. Overall he have finished 12th or better in 4 of the previous 5 races at Indy, dating back to the 2011 season. His lone non-top 12 finishes? 19th (debut in 2012) and 21st (2012 ). Last season's race was probably his best performance overall honestly. He started deep in the field and start was able to be very competitive. What so impressive about coming from deep in the field (31st starting position - worst ever starting spot at Indy), is because Indy is difficult to make passes at. In that race, he held 10.0 average running position and 102.6 driver rating. Both career-best from a performance standpoint. He also completed 79% of the laps inside the top 15. Also a career-high. Yeah he should pretty good at both Indy and Pocono!

Road courses will be a good type of racetrack for Keselowski in 2016. I fully expect him to perform better at Watkins Glenn than Sonoma. He have found very little success at Sonoma and that what stops him from being put at the top in regards of road course racers. As he have found plenty of success already at Watkins Glenn. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 21.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 92.8 driver rating. Misleading stats though. He finished 35th in the 2014. But finished that up with 7th place effort last season. Overall he have finished 4 of 6 career races inside the top 7. Including 3 straight top 2 from 2011 to 2013 (3 races). He been much  worse at Sonoma though. Over previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 20.5 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 64.3 driver rating. His best career finish came in 2011 of 10th. He followed up that race with 12th place finish in 2012. Other than that, his best career finish have been 19th. That 19th place finish came last season. Overall he have finished 19th or worse in 4 of his 6 career races. He needs to do better at Sonoma, considering he is in top tier equipment!

Restrictor Plates usually are hit or miss, even though he is typically a very strong plate racer. Last season at Daytona and Tallaega (4 races), he supported 24.0 average finish with 15.8 average running position and 81.7 driver rating. Typically Brad is a strong performer, but he tend to get caught up in wrecks often at both venues. At Talladega over the previous 4 races (2 seasons), he have supported 16.3 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 84.4 driver rating. He have finished 4th and 1st in 2 of his previous 3 Talladega races. Overall he have reeled off 5 Top 7 finishes over his previous 9 races. He haven't been quite as good recently at Daytona. Over previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 22.8 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 78.1 driver rating. He have finishes of 29th and 41st last season. Overall he have reeled off 4 Top 15 finishes over his previous 10 races. 3 of those 4 races ended inside the top 10. His latest top 10 finish was at the 2014 Daytona 500 though. He been hit or miss at Daytona in my opinion. More miss than anything though.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Carl Edwards

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Carl Edwards enters his 2nd-full season as a member of Joe Gibbs Racing. His first ended in multiple wins and a chase birth. Despite a sluggish start, Edwards was able to end the season very strongly and I wouldn't expect the same sluggish start from the driver of the 19 car in 2016. In fact, I have pretty high standards for him this upcoming season. It almost expected that he wins multiple races again. Edwards will be his strongest on the intermediate tracks and short tracks. He will also be very solid at the short tracks and road courses. Honestly there isn't a track where, he cannot run and finish well at.

The intermediate racetracks are probably his best type of racetrack. I think JGR will be pretty stout  in 2016 and the top teams usually are pretty strong at the intermediate tracks. Last season in 16 races (Minus Las Vegas - wreck), he have supported 9.1 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. He started off the season a bit sluggish and didn't score his top 10 finish until Texas and that was 10th. I don't think he really got going until Kentucky. I think that 4th-place finish really put a fire under Edwards. He was especially strong on the 1.5 mile racetracks going forward. He finished out the season with 5 straight top 11 finishes, including 4 Top 10 finishes. I would consider Kansas, Charlotte, Darlington, Atlanta, Texas and Las Vegas as his best racetracks probably. If I had to pick two, then I would go with Charlotte and Kansas honestly. Then probably Atlanta and Darlington. Simply put, you cannot go wrong with Edwards at any intimidate track and if he have some momentum headed into the weekend, then that's just a bonus.

Short tracks is a major strength for JGR as whole and they were pretty strong last season. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he supported 15.3 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 92.5 driver rating. Edwards was strong every time he went to a short track in 2015, however he had a misleading high teen to mid-20 finish at each track. He probably been at his best at Bristol I would say over the previous two seasons. Over the previous 4 races (2 seasons), he have supported 9.8 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 109.9 driver rating. His numbers are pretty stout here recently and they would have been better if Gordon didn't get into him last spring. Even though he have 3 Top 7 finishes in other three previous races. Including a win in spring 2014 with RFR. He also probably should have won the fall race in 2013 too. He led 119 and was leading the race when his engine went south. Overall 15 of the previous 20 Bristol races have ended inside the top 16 for Edwards (Dating back to 2006 season). Including 7 the of the previous 12 races ending inside the top 12. 6 of those race have ended inside the top 9.  His second best short track is probably Richmond recently. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 15.3 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. He finished 11th and 19th. He struggled last spring at Richmond. It was a strange race, it was ran during the day instead at night (rained out on Saturday night), and finished 19th. He followed that up with 11th place finish. Looking at his stats over the years, he been pretty consistent in recent seasons. Overall he have finished 9 of his previous 12 Richmond races inside the top 11. He have posted 8 Top 10s finishes as well. At probably at his worst at Martinsville, even though he had a top 5 car last spring. Over the previous 4 Martinsville (2 seasons), he have supported 16.0 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 86.1 driver rating. Through his career Edwards have been nothing but a teen driver. In 23 career starts, he only have about 5 Top 10s finish. He have 14 finishes from 11th-20th. He have finished 8 straight races in that 11th-20th place range. Including 14th and 17th efforts last season as well. His last top 10? All the way back in 2011 (9 races ago). Prior to 2012, he reeled off 3 top 10 in a 4 race span from March 2010 to October 2011. His best finish since have been 11th place in spring 2012 race. However with JGR, I expect him to be much more competitive than he was RFR. So I think he breaks his top 10-less streak at Martinsville in 2016!

Short flat racetracks will be a strong spot for Carl Edwards and JGR in 2016! He was pretty strong at both Phoenix and New Hampshire last season. In 2015 on the short flat racetracks, he supported 9.3 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 102.2 driver rating. He been pretty equal at New Hampshire and Phoenix. Both from a career point of view and recently! At New Hampshire over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 10.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 92.4 driver rating. He finished 5th and 7th last season with his first two races with Joe Gibbs Racing. He also have knocked off 4 Top 9 finishes over his previous 6 races at New Hampshire. Overall 8 of the previous 11 New Hampshire races have ended inside the top 13. Including 5 Top 9 finishes since the 2010 season (11 races ago). It also worth noting that Edwards swept the poles last season at New Hampshire. In 2015 at New Hampshire, he supported 6.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 104.8 driver rating. He always been pretty good here and I don't see that changing in 2016. He been just as good at Phoenix. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 12.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 95.7 driver rating. Over that 4-race span, he have finishes that consists of 12th, 13th, 15th and 8th. He been pretty good at Phoenix dating back to the 2010 season (12 races ago). In that 12 race-span, he have reeled off 9 Top 15 finishes. 7 of those 9 Top 15 finishes ended in 12th or better. Including 5 Top 9 finishes. His latest coming in spring of 2014, when he finished 8th place.

Edwards also is pretty solid at road courses, even though I think he is still underrated. He been a solid driver on this type racetrack and people are just now realizing it. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races) at Sonoma, he have supported 20.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 95.2 driver rating. Last season he got very unlucky and got wrecked by David Ragan. In 2014, he went to victory lane after outrunning Jeff Gordon in the final few laps. Over the previous 4 seasons, he have managed 2 top 5 finishes (1st - 2014, 3rd - 2013) and 2 top finishes outside the top 20 (40th - 2015, 21st - 2012). Overall he have reeled off 5 Top 13 finishes over his previous 8 attempts (dating back to 2008). Including 3 Top 5 finishes over his previous 5 races, dating back to the 2011 season. He been just as good at WGI in my opinion. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 6.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 97.2 driver rating. He doesn't have a win here yet, but he been pretty darn good the past two seasons. His numbers throughout his career have been impressive. By stats this is considered his best racetrack at 8.7 average finish in 11 races. He have only once finished worse than 14th and that was all way back in his debut in 2005. Overall he have reeled off 5 Top 8 finishes over his previous 7 races (dating back to 2009). Including 4 Top 5 finishes over his previous 7 races, dating back to 2009 season.

Big flat racetracks will be another type racetrack like that Edwards should have decent amount of success at, even though he have struggled at both venues (Indy and Pocono) over the years. Last season on the large flat racetracks (3 races), he supported 12.7 average finish with 8.7 average running position and 106.2 driver rating. Last season at the larger flat racetracks, he also posted impressive 3.7 average starting position. Including two poles (one at Pocono and one at Indy). Which translated into some solid results. He posted finishes of 15th (1st Pocono race), 10th (2nd Pocono race) and 13th (Indy). He didn't impress us with any top 5 finishes or anything like that, but he was pretty consistent with his finishes, all of them coming in the 10th to 15th place range. Over the previous 4 Pocono races (2 seasons), he have supported 23.8 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 83.7 driver rating. He finished 10th and 15th last season. Prior to that, he been okay at Pocono. But I wouldn't call him anything beyond a high single digit to middle teen driver though. Over his previous 13 races (dating back to 2009), he have posted 9 Top 18 finishes. Including 6 Top 11 finishes. His best finish in that span is 3rd back in 2010. Even though he have won twice before at Pocono. First time coming in his debut in 2005 and then again in June 2009. He been decent at Indy over his career, even though he have posted majority of his finishes in the teens. Over the previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 14.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 97.8 driver rating. He have finished 13th or 15th over the previous three seasons, dating back to the 2013 season where he finished 13th. Overall he have finished 7 of his career 11 races in the 12th-18th place range. He have collected 3 Top 10 finishes, with his last coming in 2010 of 7th place. He also finished 29th in 2012. Overall you know what you are getting with Edwards on the big flat racetracks. He will likely be a top 10 driver that finishes in the high single digits to low or middle teens.

The restrictor plates will be where Edwards does his worst work usually. He haven't done much of anything at either racetrack. He only have two top 10 finishes in his previous 12 races (which equal to the past 3 seasons). Going back further to 2011, he only have 4 top 10 finishes in his previous 18 races at Daytona and Talladega. Not exactly something to be proud of, even at the restrictor plates. He have only finished inside the top 20 about 39% of the time. For a driver of Carl's talent, he needs to be batting .500 in my opinion. Otherwise it is pretty pointless for him to have any type of fantasy value. Considering he pretty much runs well anywhere. I personally would stay away from Edwards at both Talladega and Daytona. Right now I just don't see any value with him, and that might change in the future. But headed into the season, I think there too many other good places he can be employed at.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Dale Jr

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8 years ago, Dale Earnhardt Jr joined HMS back in 2008. And 5 years ago, I would have said there no way he was ready to step up and become a elite talent in the HMS organization. But you know what at start of the 2012 season, something changed about Dale Jr and ever since he been one of the consistent drivers in the series. He topped 10 Top 5s and 20 Top 10s in his past 4 seasons at HMS and posting 11.7 average finish over his past 144 races. That's pretty damn solid! He will be his strongest on the intermediate racetracks, restrictor plates, short tracks and flat tracks. He will also perform well at road courses, which is something I didn't think I would ever see. Simply put, Dale Jr is a complete driver. He will run well just about at any track and have top 5 upside on a weekly basis. However he more often than not, should be counted on for a top 10 finish. If you are looking for a safe consistent choice, then Dale Jr is your guy!

Restrictor Plates will be Junior's strongest type racetrack. It no secret that Dale Jr is one of Nascar's most talented plate racers and always have the speed to back it up too. Rarely do we go to the superspeedways and not hear about the driver of the #88 car. He probably a lock to start on every fantasy team at the Daytona 500.  Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races) at Daytona, he have supported 4.8 average finish with 9.8 average running position and 110.0 driver rating. He have finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the past 4 of the last 5 Daytona 500 races and added two more top 4 finishes to that total during the summer races as well since the 2010 season. Yeah he pretty damn good at Daytona. However he haven't been as strong at Talladega. Which will probably surprise some people. Over his previous 4 Talladega races, he have supported 15.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 104.1 driver rating. He finished 1st and 2nd last season which was the first time since the 2011 season that he have had posted a better average finish at Talladega than Daytona. In his previous 14 races (dating back to the 2008 season - debut season with HMS), he have managed 5 Top 10 finishes (3 top 5s) and 9 Top 20 finishes total. Overall he been a little bit inconsistent, however you cannot argue with his major upside if you pick him. As we saw last season, it don't take much for Dale Jr to finish strong at a plate race.

The intermediate tracks have became a real strong spot for Dale Jr over the past few seasons and he now considered a primary driver at these venues. He was strong last season at the intermediate tracks. Last season in 16 Intermediate races (minus Homestead race - finished 40th), he supported 9.2 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 97.0 driver rating. He was very strong early in the season at the intermediate racetracks in 2015. He started off the season with 6 straight top 6 finishes, including 5 Top 3 finishes. Then he finished 14th at Dover. He followed that up with 2nd at Michigan, 20th at Kentucky and 10th at Michigan again. He start to see him down trending at that point in terms of fantasy value as was becoming a little inconsistent. But then he follows that up with 8th, 12th and 3rd at Darlington, Chicago and Dover. Of course he then ends the season with 3 straight finishes outside of the top 20 at Kansas, Charlotte and Homestead. Overall a stout 2015 season by Dale Jr on the intermediate tracks. I would consider Michigan, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Texas his best intermediate racetracks on the schedule. Especially Michigan and Atlanta. I would call them two his best two racetracks. Even though he also been pretty strong at Las Vegas the past two seasons.

Large Flat racetracks have been very kind to him recently and that shouldn't change in 2016 either. Last season on the large flat racetracks (3 races), he supported 12.3 average finish with 14.7 average running position and 91.8 driver rating. He been better at Pocono than Indy recently though. Over the previous 4 Pocono races, he have supported 4.3 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. He finished 11th last June, but got damaged halfway through the race and had to battle back to a respectable finish. Or otherwise his average finish would have been even better. His other three finishes over the past 2 season have ended in either 1st or 4th. He swept the 2014 races. Overall he been pretty impressive since the 2011 season at Pocono. Over the previous 10 Pocono races (Dating back to the 2011 season), he have posted 9 Top 11 finishes. Including 6 Top 6 finishes in that 10 race stench of races. Yeah he been pretty stout at Pocono and should continue his success in the 2016 season at the large flat racetrack. Indy haven't been a bad track for Dale Jr, but I wouldn't call it a great one either though. Over the past two seasons (2 races), he have supported 15.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 80.5 driver rating. He finished 22nd last season at Indy. Prior to that, he had reeled off 3 straight top 9 finishes at Indy dating back to the 2012 season. Prior to that three-race stench, he had only 2 Top 10 finishes in his previous 12 races dating back to his track record in 2000.


Dale Jr should be pretty solid on short flat racetracks. Last season at the short flat racetracks (Phoenix and New Hampshire), he supported 18.5 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 98.2 driver rating. Over the previous 2 seasons (8 races), he have supported 12.9 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 100.4 driver rating. I would say he is better at New Hampshire than Phoenix. Even though he is pretty good at Phoenix too. He finished 43rd and 1st last season. Prior to his Phoenix wreck last spring, he had reeled off 4 straight top 8 finishes, dating back to the 2013 season. Overall he have knocked off 11 Top 14 finishes in 16 starts since coming to HMS in 2008. He been pretty strong, I would say at New Hampshire recently, even though he had that misleading 25th in the last season's chase. Over the previous 4 New Hampshire races, he have supported 12.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 97.9 driver rating. Minus his 25th-place finish last fall, he have reeled 11 straight top 17 finishes. Including 4 straight top 10 finishes. Overall he have finished 8 of the previous 14 races inside the top 10. 12 of the previous 15 races inside the top 15.

Short tracks will be another type racetrack that Dale Jr performs pretty well at! I expect him to be solid driver on the short tracks once again in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he supported 14.0 average finish with 18.2 average running position and 84.1 driver rating. I would say Martinsvlle have been his best racetrack recently. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 101.3 driver rating. He have been pretty solid at Martinsville recently. 3 top 5 finishes in his previous 4 races. He lone-top 5 was 36th last spring, but that was because of a wreck and finished 47 laps down. He been pretty impressive since the 2010 season at Martinsville. In that 11-race stench, he have managed 8 Top 8 finishes, with five of those races ending inside the top 4. He won in fall of 2014 for though of you that don't remember. That marked his first career win at the short track. He also been pretty solid at Richmond. Over the previous 4 races at Richmond, he have supported 9.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. He finished 14th and 5th last season at Richmond. Overall he have reeled off 8 straight top 14 finishes. Including 5 top 12 finishes and 4 of those 5 races have ending inside the top 10. He probably been at his worst at Bristol over the past two seasons. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 22.0 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 77.0 driver rating. He had finishes of 9th and 16th last season. 4 of the past 6 races have ended inside the top 16. Overall he have reeled off 12 Top 16 finishes ins his previous 14 attempts. In that span, he have knocked off 7 Top 12 finishes and 10 Top 15 finishes.

Road course were once considered bad racetracks for Dale Jr and from the general public, he may still be viewed that way. However the stats over the past two seasons say otherwise. At Sonoma over previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 5.0 average finish (best-average finish in the series) with 10.5 average running position and 106.4 driver rating. Overall he have reeled off 3 straight top 12 finishes at Sonoma dating back to 2013 season. 4 of his previous 6 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished 12th or better. Going back further, he have knocked 5 Top 12 finishes in his previous 8 races, since start of the 2008 season. He haven't quite as good at Watkins Glenn over the past few seasons. Over the previous 2 Watkins Glenn races, he have supported 11.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 103.1 driver rating. He have finished 11th in back-to-back races at WGI. Overall he have knocked off 3 Top 15 finishes in his previous 5 road courses races at WGI. However his last top 10 was all the way back in 2005, where he finished 10th place. He been close to breaking that top 10 mark though.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Ryan Newman

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Ryan Newman have been one of the more consistent drivers over the past two seasons, despite not having any wins or many top 5 finishes. Of all the winless drivers over the past two seasons, I would put Newman as the next driver in line to breakthrough to victory lane. However I don't think he will be able to straight up race himself to a win in 2016. I don't think he have the talent to take a top 10  or top 15 car and race it into a winning car. I also don't think RCR have the speed to run up inside the top 5 on a weekly basis, which is kind of why Newman haven't found victory lane with RCR yet. His best days will come at most intermediate racetracks and flats. He also will have the potential to run well on the short tracks and road courses.

Intermediate racetracks will be where he performs his best at most likely in 2016. In 2015 on the intermediate racetracks (17 races), he supported 12.4 average finish with 15.1 average running position and 84.6 driver rating. In those 17 races, he posted 3 Top 5s, 7 Top 10s, 11 Top 15s and 15 Top 20s finishes. He was very consistent last season on the intermediate racetracks. Of those 17 races, he posted 3 of his worst finishes during the chase. He had finishes of 22nd (Homestead), 19th (Dover) and 16th (Texas). Those were 3 of 6 races, he failed to finish inside the top 15. The other three races were Kentucky (20th), Michigan (18th - 1st race) and Dover (18th). His best Intermediate tracks are Chicago, Las Vegas, Michigan and Darlington. He use to be pretty good at Dover, but he only have one top 15 finish over the past two seasons since joining RCR. He also have ran very well at Atlanta and Kansas since joining RCR. He have finished inside the top 11 in every start at Atlanta and Kansas since joining RCR at start of the 2014 season.

I expect Newman to perform very well on the short flat racetracks in 2016. He have found success at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. I don't think that will change in this upcoming season. Last season on the short flat tracks (4 races), he supported 8.8 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 91.0 driver rating. He been better at Phoenix than New Hampshire recently though. Phoenix is ranked as his 2nd-best racetrack in terms of average finish over the previous two seasons. At Phoenix over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 8.0 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 95.5 driver rating. Prior to the 2010 season, this was considered a pretty average track for Ryan Newman. However since winning in 2010 spring race, he have turned it up at Phoenix. In the previous 12 races, he have reeled off 10 Top 11 finishes. That includes 6 Top 5 finishes and 8 Top 10 finishes. Prior to the 2010 season (2009 and before - 15 races), he posted only 3 Top 5 finishes and 9 Total top 20 finishes. He also had 6 finishes of 34th or worse. He only had one of those type finishes over his previous 12 races at Phoenix. He been almost as good at New Hampshire recently as well. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 86.0 driver rating. In his previous 4 races at New Hampshire, he have posted 3 Top 11 finishes over his last 4 races. Including a 5th-place finish in July 2014. He always been good at New Hampshire and have remained pretty solid here throughout his career. Over his previous 13 races (dating back to his SHR days - 2009 season), he have posted 10 Top 11 finishes and 10 of those have resulted in top 10 finishes. 7 of his previous 8 races at New Hampshire have ended inside the top 18. 5 of those 8 races have ended inside the top 11 and 4 of those 5 races have ended inside the top 10.

He will also be pretty solid on the large flat racetracks in 2016. His numbers were not good last season on the large flats. Even though his wreck with AJ Dinger at the first Pocono kind of killed his numbers as a whole. Last season on the larger flat racetracks (3 races), he supported 24.3 average finish with 18.7 average running position and 70.5 driver rating. He been a great performer throughout his career at Pocono. He wrecked out last June here, so his numbers are misleading. He also finished off the lead lap in the August race. Over the previous 4 Pocono races, he have supported 19.3 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 77.4 driver rating. Should be noted, he was running very competitively last season before wrecking with Dinger. Prior to finishing 39th and 23rd, he have finished 18th or better in 19 straight races. Actually 14th or better in 13 straight races at Pocono. Including 8 Top 8 finishes. With 5 straight top 8 finishes prior to wrecking out last June.Yeah I feel pretty good about disregarding last season's outcomes at Pocono and predicting that Newman will get back to his old self in 2016! He haven't been quite as good at Indy though. Even though he have some solid stats since he joined SHR back in 2009. Over the previous 2 seasons, he have supported 11.0 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 81.3 driver rating. He have reeled off 5 straight top 12 finishes dating back to the 2011 season. He have reeled off 8 straight top 17 finishes. Including 6 Top 13 finishes. He have not finished worse than 17th since 2010. In his first 7 races at Indy, he finished 31st or worse 4 times.

Short tracks will be decent to Newman in 2016, but I think we mainly will see teen-finishes out of Newman. Even though I am sure he will manage a few top 10 finishes before the season over. Last season on the short tracks (6 races - Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol), he supported 13.3 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 81.3 driver rating. His best short track is Richmond in my opinion. He been consistent there throughout his career and holds an 11.5 average finish with ranks as his best track in terms of average finish. Over his previous 4 Richmond races, he have supported 12.0 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 88.9 driver rating. He finished 11th and 20th last season at Richmond. But Prior to that, he been very strong. He had 8 straight top 15 finishes before finishing 20th last summer. Including 6 Top 11 finishes and 5 of those 6 races ending in 9th or better. In fact, he had 4 straight top 9 finishes before finishing 11th last spring. Going back further, he have posted 19 Top 11 finishes and 22 Top 15 finishes in 28 career starts at Richmond. I would rank Bristol as his second-best short track. Over the previous 4 Bristol races, he have supported 11.0 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 86.5 driver rating. He been a little inconsistent at Bristol throughout his career, but his recent numbers say he is on the up-wing though. He posted finishes of 10th and 5th last season here. He currently rides an 4-race top 16 streak at Bristol. Overall, he have reeled off 13 Top 16 finishes in his previous 15 races at Bristol. Including 6 Top 12 finishes in his past 10 races, dating back to the 2011 season. I would consider Martinsville as his worst racetrack most recently among the short tracks. Over the previous 4 Martinsville races, he have supported 14.3 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 82.5 driver rating. It helps that he have finishes of 3rd and 7th in the past two fall races, but he also have finishes of 20th and 27th in the spring. Not exactly comforting! In fact, 4 of his previous 6 races at Martinsville have ended in 20th or worse. Including finishes of 20th, 27th, 31st and 38th. Prior those stench of poor finishes, he had 3 straight top 11 finishes from April 2012 to October 2013. Overall he have produced 8 Top 11 finishes over his past 14 races (dating back to 2009 season) at Martinsville.

Road Courses will be a solid place for Newman, but I wouldn't call it great place for him though. He knows how to get around both Watkins Glenn and Sonoma. But I don't think he will produce anything beyond a low teen finish or a high-single digit finish. Even though he always been pretty stout at Sonoma. Over the previous two seasons at Sonoma, he have supported 10.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. He have finishes of 9th and 11th over the past two seasons. He have reeled off 4 straight top 18 finishes dating back to the 2012 season. 7 Top 18 finishes dating back to the 2008 season in his past 8 races. But only 4 Top 15 finishes in that span. He usually good for a finish between 13th-18th place range. When looking at him from a career point of view, he only have had one finish outside of the top 20 and that was in 2011 where he finished 25th. He haven't been quite so lucky at Watkins Glenn though. Over the previous 2 seasons, he have supported 28.0 average finish with 20.0 average running position and 72.4 driver rating. That's misleading though. He finished 14th in last season's event. In 2014, he finished 41st after running into trouble and only be able to complete 55 of 90 laps. Prior to that 41st finish, he had 4 straight top 16 finishes. Overall he have reeled off 5 Top 15 finishes in his previous 6 attempts.

This will surprise some people but Newman was a pretty solid restrictor plate racer in 2015! Last season (minus the Daytona 500 wreck), he supported 9.0 average finish with 26.3 average running position and 65.1 driver rating. He had finishes of 8th and 38th last season at Daytona. Newman usually get quality results at the restrictor plates. Over the past 4 seasons at Daytona (dating back to 2012), he have posted 4 Top 10 finishes and 3 finishes of 20th-22nd place range. Of course his lone non-top 22 finish was his Daytona 500 wreck where he finished like 19 laps down. He been pretty similar at Talladega I would say as well. Last season he had finishes of 7th and 12th. He been pretty solid over the previous 4 seasons as well. Over the previous 7 Talladega races, he have posted 5 Top 12 finishes. Prior that 7-race stench of races, he had 6 straight finishes of 23rd-36th place. So he been pretty up and down since 2009. On the plus side, least he is consistent and predictable. I wouldn't expect anything beyond a teen-finish though.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Aric Almirola

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Aric Almirola isn't the most talented driver nor does he drives for a top tier race team, but he have proven he can be a legit fantasy option on the intermediate tracks, short tracks and short flat racetracks. Last season he had his best season as a full-time Cup driver and posted a career high 17.8 average finish. While also posting a career high Top 5 finishes (4) and Top 20 finishes (28). So 2015 was a pretty good year for Aric Alimorla. Can he top it in 2016? I don't think so. Even though he will come very close to it though. I think he will be fairly consistent in 2016, but I think his equipment will hold him back from knocking off many top 5 and top 10 finishes. He will likely have a state line of 3 to 5 Top 5s, 6 to 8 Top 10 finishes, 25+ Top 20 finishes. Those are where his numbers have hovered so far with RPM and honestly I don't think his numbers will change that much in 2016.

I think the short tracks are where Aric will perform his best at in 2016. He been pretty good at these venues in 2015. On the short tracks in 2015, he supported 13.7 average finish with 17.7 average running position and 79.4 driver rating. I remember Aric saying Bristol is one of his favorite racetracks on the schedule. He was rock solid last season at this short track. Last season he posted finishes of 13th and 17th. Over the previous 4 Bristol races (minus 2014 summer race - wreck), he have supported 12.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 85.9 driver rating. His 3rd place in spring 2014 really enhanced his stats though. He was strong in that race and probably remains his best career race at Bristol. In those other 3 races? He have managed finishes between 13th-17th. That's where I would expect him to finish at in 2016. He also pretty solid at Martinsville. Aric wasn't any thing special last season at Martinsville as he posted finishes of 16th and 12th. But he been very consistent since joining RPM. He have finished 21st or better in every start with RPM dating back to 2010. Overall 5 of the past 8 races have ended inside the top 16. With 4 of 5 races ending inside the top 12. Including 3 top 8 finishes. His latest? 2014 where he finished 8th. Much like Martinsville (and Bristol to lesser extent), he have been pretty consistent at Richmond! Over the previous 4 Richmond races, he have supported 12.8 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 79.0 driver rating. He haven't performed overly strong, but still pretty solid. He have reeled off 6 straight top 20 finishes at Richmond dating back to the 2013 season. In that 6-race time period, he have knocked off a top 10 each season. Finished 8th in 2013 (spring race), 10th in 2014 (summer race) and 4th in 2015 (summer race). His other three finishes ended in 17th-20th place though.

Short flat racetracks should be another strong spot for Aric Almiorla. Last season his numbers were very poor, but he usually a strong performer at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season at short flat racetracks, he supported 21.8 average finish with 24.3 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. But to be fair, he had that 43rd place DNF at the second New Hampshire, which pretty much kills his stats. So let's look at the other three races instead. At his non-trouble races at Phoenix and New Hampshire, he supported 14.7 average finish with 19.3 average running position and 75.7 driver rating. Prior to finishing 43rd at New Hampshire last fall, he have finished 3 of the previous 5 races inside the top 15. Including 2 top 6 finishes. His latest coming in fall 2014 in 6th place. Over the previous 4 races at New Hampshire (minus last season wreck), he have supported 16.3 average finish with 19.8 average running position and 73.6 driver rating. He been a little better at Phoenix though. Over the previous 4 Phoenix races, he have supported 15.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 77.5 driver rating. At Phoenix, Aric have been a very consistent driver since joining RPM. He have finished 10th-19th in his past 8 Phoenix races. From Fall 2012 to spring 2015 (6 races), he finished 15th-19th in every race. His other two finishes ended in 10th and 12th. That happened in Spring 2012 (12th) and Fall 2015 (10th).

The intermediate racetracks will be another solid spot for Aric Almirola and the 43 team in 2016! He was pretty solid last season on this type track. In 16 races during the 2015 season (excluding the Homestead race - incident), he have supported 14.1 average finish with 17.3 average running position and 78.8 driver rating. Noticeably his average finish is better than Jamie McMurray (14.4), Denny Hamlin (14.8), Paul Menard (15.9), Jimmie Johnson (17.2), Kyle Larson (19.2) and Austin Dillon (22.6). All of those drivers equal to or greater quality rides than Aric. He wasn't anything great when looking at his finishes individually, but they are pretty impressive after they start to add up. In 2015, he had 2 Top 5s (13%), 4 Top 10s (25%), 10 Top 15s (63%) and 13 Top 20s (81%). Should be noted he scored the 10th-most Top 15 finishes and 10th-most Top 20 finishes in the series. What made him such a powerful fantasy option last season in second half of the season was his consistency. On top of his consistency, he was very under the radar. In certain fantasy leagues that made him a excellent fantasy value. From Kentucky to Texas (7 races - minus Kansas race; had power steeling issues), he supported 11.4 average finish with 15.6 average running position and 84.0 driver rating. He managed 3 Top 10s and 6 Top 15 finishes in those 7 races. His lone non-top 15 finish came at Texas in 18th place. The tracks that I would really consider him at would be Dover (best intermediate racetrack in my opinion), Charlotte, Texas and probably Atlanta.

Large flat racetracks was not the kindest to him in 2015 He struggled at both venues last season, but it had a lot to do with 2 DNFs though. In 2015 on the large flats, he supported 33.0 average finish with 26.7 average running position and 56.2 driver rating. Both Pocono and Indy ranks as two of his worst racetracks over the past two seasons. From career point of view, he been better though. He probably a little better at Indy than Pocono, but he have also raced there less than times though. Over the past two seasons at Indy, he have supported 29.5 average finish with 23.5 average running position and 62.4 driver rating. Even though he haven't as bad those numbers suggest though. In his first three starts, he had finishes between 17th-21st. Last season was the first time he didn't finish on the lead lap. He finished 38th. Overall he isn't too bad at Indy I would say, even though the sample size is pretty small so far. He been worse at Pocono, but I think his recent DNFs there makes him look way worse than he actually is. Over the previous two seasons at Pocono (4 races), he have supported 29.5 average finish with 25.8 average running position and 58.3 driver rating. Ugly numbers at Pocono the past two seasons, but there is bright side. His stats are deflated a bit here because of his DNFs in August 2014 and July 2015 (35th and 43rd place finishes). Outside of those two races, he have finished his last 5 races at Pocono in 18th-22nd place range.

Restrictor plates will allow Aric to be a solid driver, but I am not banking on anything beyond a finish between 13th-20th though. In 2014, he scored his lone cup win for RPM. However that was screwy race from the start, so I wouldn't put too much stock into that. Over the previous 4 Daytona races, he have supported 22.3 average finish with 22.5 average running position and 72.4 driver rating. He seems to have a lot of mix finishes at Daytona. One top 15 finish with one finish outside the top 30 every season since 2013. That's not something I am really thrilled about, since that basically tells me he have the same chance of wrecking out as he does finishing inside the top 15. At been little better at Talladega however. Over the previous 4 Talladega races, he have supported 20.8 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 65.8 driver rating. Aric just been consistent at Talladega. 8 of his past 10 Talladega races have  ended inside the top 20 dating back to 2008 with Dale Earnhardt Inc. He have finished 13th-16th in 3 of his past 4 races at Talladega. Since being in the 43 car for RPM (starting back in 2012), he have finished 5 of his 8 races inside the top 16. 4 of those 5 races have ended inside the top 15. I would feel pretty good about picking Aric Almirola at Talladega, if I were simply looking for a consistent driver.

Road Courses isn't a great type of racetrack for Aric, but isn't necessarily a bad one either though. Last season he had finishes of 14th and 16th at Sonoma and Watkin Glenn. He been better at WGI than Sonoma in my opinion. Over the previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 17.0 average finish with 26.0 average running position and 70.0 driver rating. He have finished 16th or 18th in 3 of his past 4 races at Watkins Glenn. Since lone poor finish since joining RPM? 37th in 2013. He was involved in a accident though. He been pretty solid at Sonoma recently. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 18.5 average finish with 21.5 average running position and 67.4 driver rating. He finished 14th last season at Sonoma which marks his best finish on a road course. However his prior tow finishes have ended in 20th (2013) and 23rd (2014). In his two starts before that, he had finishes of 28th both times. Even though his first start in 2008 with Dale Earnhardt Inc was 4 years apart from his first RPM start at Sonoma in 2012. Overall I would call Aric a high-teen potential type driver. He should be good for a finish between 15th-20th most likely. Anything beyond that is probably unwishful thinking.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Denny Hamlin

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Denny Hamlin enters the 2016 season as the underdog in the JGR stable. Hamlin probably have the most to prove and more importantly he have the most to gain. He didn't have a bad 2015 season, but he didn't exactly set the world on fire. Of course it hard to look impressive when one teammate won 5+ races and the other won the championship. In 2016, I expect Hamlin to be the weak link once again.  Even though he clearly not a weak link by any means. I just view him as the one driver in the JGR stable that is overlooked because of who he is teammates with. However I am sure many drivers would love to be the weak link at JGR.

The shorter tracks will likely once again be a strong spot for Hamlin! He always been a great short track racers and his numbers are pretty impressive throughout his career. Last season he was pretty strong and showed why he should be still considered elite at these venues. In 6 races on the short tracks, he supported 10.2 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. He will likely be at his best at Martinsville. I consider this as his best racetrack on the schedule. His recent numbers alone are good enough to make him a top fantasy option. Over the previous 4 races at Martinsville, he have supported 7.8 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 107.2 driver rating. He won at Martinsville last spring and finished 3rd in the fall race. Overall, he have finished inside the top 6 in 15 of the past 18 races at Martinsville. Including 9 Top 3 finishes and 5 of those 9 races ending in wins since the 2006 season. He used to be pretty strong at Richmond. But he have fallen off in recent seasons though. Over the previous three seasons (6 races), he have finished 18th or worse in 5 of 6 races. His lone top 15 finish was last summer where he finished 6th. He finished 21st or 22nd in 4 straight races prior to finishing 6th last September. Last season at Richmond, he supported 14.0 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 92.9 driver rating. He was pretty damn stout last September at Richmond. He started all the way in 25th, but had 6.0 average running position and 114.1 driver rating. He probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car in that race. Nobody had anything for Kenseth that night though. Bristol been a pretty inconsistent track for Hamlin throughout his career. Over the previous 6 races at Bristol, Hamlin have supported 21.0 average finish with 14.3 average running positon and 88.8 driver rating. He have performed fairly solidly overall in the past three seasons. I think JGR solid short track program helps, but I think Hamlin just lacks the finishes. When he can finish on the lead lap, he usually good for a pretty strong finish. His last three lead lap finishes have looked like this: 3rd, 6th and 1st.

At short flats racetracks, He been pretty strong at both New Hampshire and Phoenix. Both been very good tracks for Hamlin throughout his career. Last season on the short flat racetracks (4 races), he supported 11.8 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 92.0 driver rating. I consider Hamlin to be better at New Hampshire than Phoenix, even though he been pretty good at both venues. At New Hampshire, he have found more success recently. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 15.3 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 104.7 driver rating. He have finished 4 of the past 5 races inside the top 14. 2 of those races have ended inside the top 10. His lone bad finish was 37th in 2014. Overall he have finished 8 of the past 11 races inside the top 14. 5 of those 8 top 14 finishes have ended inside the top 3. Including an 2nd place finish last September. At Phoenix in recent seasons, he been just as good probably. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 13.8 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 82.2 driver rating. He only have 2 top 10 finishes in those 4 races, but they came have came in the past two November races. Overall at Phoenix, he have finished 5 of the past 8 Phoenix inside the top 8.

I still consider Denny Hamlin a flat track master as he is one of the most well-rounded drivers on the flats. He is just as strong on the large flat racetracks as the shorter flat racetracks. Last season at the large flats (3 races), he supported 12.3 average finish with 9.7 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. He better at Pocono than Indy, even though he been pretty solid at both racetracks throughout his career. Last season he finished 22nd and 10th at Pocono. Prior to that in 2014, he had finishes of 9th and 4th. Overall 5 of the past 8 races at Pocono have ended inside the top 10. Last season at Pocono, he supported 16.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 97.4 driver rating. He was pretty strong in the second Pocono race, but was tagged with a misleading 22nd-place finish. He been pretty stout at Indy over the past few seasons. Over the previous two seasons, he have posted finishes of 3rd and 5th. He started off his career kind of rough, but recently have turned it on at Indy. He have managed 6 Top 10 finishes in 10 starts. He have posted 3 top 6 finishes in his past 4 races dating back to the 2012 season. Over the past two seasons at Indy, he have supported 4.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. He finished 5th last season!

The intermediate racetracks are a major strength for Joe Gibbs Racing, and Hamlin should be considered a strong threat any time he is on the racetrack. Last season he was rock solid, even though he started off a bit rocky at the intermediate racetracks. In 17 races, he supported 14.5 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 97.0 driver rating. His best intermediate racetracks are probably the ones with the worn-out surfaces. Like Darlington, Homestead, etc. The racetracks I would recommend using him at would be Darlington (best racetrack), Homestead, Texas, Charlotte and probably Michigan. Darlington is his best racetrack. He have managed 8 Top 10s and 5 top 5s in only 10 starts. He finished 3rd last season at this venue. Among tracks we visit twice (2 times) per season, I would say Texas or Charlotte is considered his best racetrack. I would go with Texas since have won there twice. He more inconsistent at Texas over the past few season though. Las Vegas and Homestead are also other intermediate racetracks that he have historically performed well at throughout course of his career.

Restrictor Plates will be a very strong type of racetrack for Denny Hamlin and the 11 team. He been nearly unstoppable the past few seasons at Daytona. Okay not unstoppable. But you know what I mean. Over the previous 4 races at Daytona, he have supported 3.8 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. Realistically speaking, Hamlin arguably been the best driver at Daytona. Him and Dale Jr are probably pretty much dead even been looking at the numbers. He have not been so lucky at Talladega though. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 16.3 average finish with 17.3 average running position and 92.1 driver rating. He been better in the spring race ( 1st and 9th) than the fall race (18th and 37th) the previous two seasons. His last top 10 finish in the fall race at Talladega? All the way back in 2011. Hamlin have suddenly turned into one of the best plate racers in the series since start of the 2014 season. Believe it or not, it not always been like that. He always been decent, but these past two seasons been a pretty mild improvement in production and performance.

Road Courses are clearly his weak spot and been for numbers of years already. He actually started off his career pretty well at both venues. Yeah I know (shocker right there), but since he been pretty average at best. At Sonoma, he started off his career with 3 Top 12 finishes (including 2 top 10s) in his first 4 starts. Since? 6 Straight finishes of 18th or worse. 5 of 6 races ending in 23rd or worse. Including 3 straight finishes outside of the top 30 from 2010 to 2012. At Watkins Glenn, he started off his career very strong! In his first four races from 2006 to 2009 (4 races), he posted 4 straight top 10 finishes. Including his best road course of his career in 2007 where he finished 2nd. Promising, right? Wrong! Since start of the 2010 season, his best finish is 19th and that was in 2013. 5 of the 6 race since the 2010 season have ended in 24th or worse. Including 3 straight finishes outside of the top 30 from 2010 to 2012. Something had to happen to him between 2009 to 2010 that made him so bad on the road courses. But I don't recall what happened though. If anything even happened. But he took a major decline in production and performance.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kyle Larson

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Kyle Larson will enter his 3rd season as full-time driver in the Cup series! After a rapid-hot start to his career in 2014, he hit a brick wall last season. Now many are doubting the young CGR driver, after a major letdown season. If there one thing I learn in fantasy nascar, then always bet on a driver coming off a disappointing season. Larson have the talent and potential to be a top 10 driver on a weekly basis in 2016. Even though Larson will once again be inconsistent, but he have the experience now to learn from his prior mistakes. Last season he had the speed and I think CGR will be even faster in 2016. The low-downforce rules package should only help him even further in my opinion. Realistically I expect him to run towards backend of the top 10 to lower teens mostly in the upcoming season. Maybe middle to higher teens on his worst days though.

Intermediate racetracks will be Larson's  strongest type racetrack in 2016. He was strong last season, but rarely got the results. Last season on the intermediates, he compiled 18.3 average finish, 13.5 average start, 12.8 average running position and 87.8 driver rating. The one stat that should stand out is his 12.8 average running position. That 12.8 ARP ranked 10th among all driver last season. I would say Dover is his best intermediate racetrack. Dover been his best track so far in his short cup career. Over the past 4 races at Dover, he have compiled 7.3 average finish, 8.5 average start, 9.8 average running position and 98.1 driver rating. In those 4 races, he have managed finishes of 9th, 3rd, 6th and 11th. His 11th place effort came back in his debut in 2014. So he enters the 2016 season, with 3 straight top 9 finishes. He had finishes of 9th and 3rd last season. Last season, he compiled 6.0 average finish, 11.0 average start, 8.0 average running position and 103.1 driver rating. Dover is considered Kyle's best track and I am willing to bet he score least one top 5 finish at the 1-mile racetrack in 2016.

I would say Texas is Kyle's second best racetrack among the intermediate racetracks. He very good at Texas. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 18.5 average finish, 11.3 average start, 12.8 average running position and 90.0 driver rating. Last season, Larson had terrible luck at Texas. However he was stout in both races though. Last season at Texas, he compiled 31.0 average finish, 7.0 average start, 14.0 average running position and 84.0 driver rating. Last spring race, he had a top 10 car and had a great pit stop at the end that would have put him in a great position for a strong finish. However with about 20 laps to go, he had pit road penalty that put him at tail end of the field. Last fall at Texas, he had easy top 5 speed. He was running around 2nd or 3rd in that race but had a blown tire. He pitted and then charge through the field again into the top 5. Guess what? He had another blown tire, that pretty much ended his day and finished 37th. Other good tracks for him would be Homestead, Expect him to be a top 10 driver on the intermediate racetrack, but he won't always get there results. So be prepared to deal with disappointment. On a good day, he will finish anywhere from 7th-12th place range. On a bad day, he will probably finish somewhere from the high teens to mid-20s realistically.

Larger Flats have been a strong spot for Kyle Larson in his first two seasons and I expect that to continue in 2016. Last season on the larger flats, Larson compiled 9.7 average finish, 15.7 average start, 10.3 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. He been pretty equal at Pocono and Indy. I would say Pocono is the track I feel better about him at, as he have more experience there. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 9.0 average finish, 14.3 average start, 12.0 average running position and 95.1 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, he compiled 10.0 average finish, 21.0 average start, 11.5 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. He had finishes of 8th and 12th last season at Pocono. His worst career finish in 4 career starts? 12th and that came last August. Pretty good numbers to have at Pocono, wouldn't you agree? At Indy, he have only made two career starts. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 8.0 average finish, 10.0 average start, 8.5 average running position and 103.6 driver rating. He have posted driver ratings in both races above 102.0 for those that are wondering. Overall in 6 starts on larger flats tracks, he have compiled 8.7 average finish, 12.8 average start, 10.8 average running position and 97.9 driver rating. Across the board, he ranked among the best in Nascar on the larger flats. At both Pocono and Indy, I expect him to back up his first two season and be least a top 10 driver in 2016.

Shorter Flats should be a decent type track for Larson in 2016, even though he didn't blow us away last season. Last season on the shorter flats, he have compiled 19.8 average finish, 10.3 average start, 17.5 average running position and 79.8 driver rating. He been worse at New Hampshire than Phoenix, so far in his cup career though. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire, he have compiled 13.3 average finish, 11.5 average start, 17.0 average running position and 84.8 driver rating. Last season he was much less successful than hew as in 2014. Last season at New Hampshire, he compiled 24.0 average finish, 11.5 average start, 23.0 average running position and 70.4 driver rating. I am not going to sugar coat it, Larson was bad last season at New Hampshire. After finishing 2nd and 3rd in his rookie season, I think expectations were high for him at the 1-mile racetrack. Plain and simple, he didn't deliver. He finished 2 laps down in the first New Hampshire and wasn't really that competitive. To be fair, I think he got a pit road penalty that put him down a lap. After that he lost another lap before finishing 31st. He finished 17th in the second race though. Which isn't terrible, even though it isn't great either. He been up and down at Phoenix so far in his career. But overall respectably. He just haven't gotten the finishes he deserved. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 8.0 average start, 12.5 average running position and 88.4 driver rating. He have qualified 12th or better for all 4 of his races at Phoenix. However only 2 of those 4 races have translated into top 15 finishes. He finished 20st in his debut in 2014 and 21st last fall shortened race. He was actually fairly solid for the first run of that fall race, but as the race went on his car faded down the leaderboard. Realistically I expect a finish anywhere from lower teens to higher teens at the shorter flats. Probably 13th-18th place range more specifically. Larson proven he can run well at both tracks, so he will have the potential to knock off some top 10s finishes. But I am not banking on that heading into the season.

Short tracks will be another decent type racetrack for Larson, but I expect him to be inconsistent with his finishes in 2016 like he was in his first two seasons. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he compiled 18.2 average finish, 11.6 average start, 14.0 average running position and 89.2 driver rating. He probably will be his best at Bristol. In every race at Bristol, he have had a very competitive car. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 17.5 average finish, 21.5 average start, 13.8 average running position and 92.4 driver rating. He finished 10th, 12th and 7th in his first three starts. He actually led 90 laps last spring and eventually finished 7th. He had a fast car last summer at Bristol as well. But he ended up finding the wall and finished 41st. No doubt he was fast in that race. Bristol been a very good track for Kyle Larson and I am willing to bet, one of his first cup wins will come at Bristol. He also been pretty good at Richmond so far in his cup career. He been pretty decent so far. No top 10 finishes, but still pretty respectably. Over the past 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 12.8 average finish, 8.0 average start, 13.8 average running position and 85.1 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 11th and 12th last season. His finished 16th in his debut in 2014. Since? He have compiled 11.7 average finish, 10.3 average start, 11.0 average running position and 91.4 driver rating. His worst finish in those three starts is 12th. Pretty good numbers to have to start of your cup career! I don't think I need to tell you how bad Kyle Larson been at Martinsville so far in his cup career. He missed last spring race because of a illness. He probably wasn't too sad about that. Considering in 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 30.3 average finish, 17.0 average start, 25.3 average running position and 59.0 driver rating. His best  career finish? 19th last fall. He was pretty decent in that race actually. Held 77.7 driver rating and 16.0 average running position. He completed about half that race inside the top 15. So by far his best race to date. His previous three races ended in 30th, 27th and 42nd. Larson will get a lot of finishes from 7th-15th at Bristol and Richmond. Anything beyond top 20 is probably asking for too much. Even though he had his best race by far last fall. Still one race means nothing. Overall the short tracks will be decent for him. Just expect some disappointment from time to time though.

Road Courses will be where Larson is a legitimate sleeper at. People don't really view Kyle as a great road course racer, but he been pretty good so far in his cup career. Which would be surprising to most. As Larson isn't really known for his road course skills.  I would say WGI is his better track though. Over the past two races at WGI, he have compiled 8.0 average finish, 14.5 average start, 15.0 average running position and 89.7 driver rating. He finished 12th last season at WGI. He performed around that area for most of the race. He held 11.0 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. At Sonoma, he just have had terrible luck. Over the past two seasons at Sonoma, he have compiled 21.5 average finish, 3.5 average start, 12.5 average running position and 86.3 driver rating. In his debut in 2014, he was running top 10 before his power steering went out and had to gut out a 28th place finish. Last season, he finished 15th but he had a top 10 car in that race. He held 9.0 average running position and 98.4 driver rating. At road courses, I would expect finishes in the lower to middle teens from Larson, if everything goes according to plan. He will probably have a shot at the top 10 too, especially if he have a fast car.

The Plates will be a major weakness for Kyle Larson in 2016, if his first two seasons is any indication. He been absolutely terrible at Daytona. His best career Daytona finish? 34th last season's Daytona 500. In 4 career races at Daytona, he have never finished on the lead lap. 3 of those 4 races, he have could not finish the race. Ouch! That's isn't exactly ideal fantasy numbers to like, if you looking at him for the upcoming season's opener. He been better at Talladega, but that not really saying too much. In 4 races at Talladega, he have compiled 23.0 average finish, 26.8 average start, 19.0 average running position and 81.9 driver rating. He finished 9th and 17th in his rookie season, but much like most of his stats he nose-dived in 2015. He had finishes of 42nd and 24th. On the plus side, 3 of those 4 races he completed on the lead lap. His lone bad finish was in April 2015 where he wrecked out. At the plates, he will be nothing more than a top 20 potential driver and at Daytona he probably isn't even that honestly. Least not until he is able to actually finish a race.

Look I am not going to stand here and tell you how much potential and talent Kyle Larson have. You have seen that on display already. He wasn't great last season, but there was no doubt that he had speed almost every time he was on the track. If CGR can gain a little more speed like they had in 2014, then this kid could have a pretty stellar season. However his inconsistency and equipment will hold him back most weekends. I think he will contend for finishes in latter part of the top 10 to the anywhere in the lower to middle teens. More specifically probably from 7th-15th most weekends. Like I mentioned before, he will be inconsistent. So while his potential may be a top 10 or top 15 driver, you have to be prepared to be disappointed from time to time. Trust me, he will disappoint at certain tracks. I think his best shot at wins will come at the flats tracks or certain intermediate tracks. He will also be strong at Bristol and the road courses as well. Realistically I am not expecting him to win though.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2016 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers List

Welcome to TimersSports

Hope everyone is having a phenomenal offseason like I am having! As much as I have enjoyed the time off, I am pumped for the upcoming season. I am excited to be contributing to TimerSports once again this season. Every Wednesday, I will release my initial Fantasy Sleepers for each race. Typically my posts will consist of 3 Sleepers with information on them. Such as stats, comparisons, etc. Okay so that the basic rundown of what to expect when we get into the season. Enough about that though. Time to dig into today's business: 2016 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers! Below I have listed my sleepers for the upcoming season. Enjoy!

1. Paul Menard - Yes I know you all are very shocked that Paul Menard is my top sleeper for 2016! Facts are facts though. Name me 5 drivers who isn't considered a powerhouse driver who can outproduce Paul Menard in 2016? Yeah I am pretty sure you won't be able to come up with five drivers. He is one of the more well-rounded drivers in the series and can run respectably just about on any type racetrack. His strong suit over the past few seasons have been at the intermediate racetracks. Paul have a tendency to start off the season well and become inconsistent when we approach the chase though. I fully expect him to have a lot of low to middle teen finishes. On Menard's worst days maybe high teens to low twenty, but most of his finishes should be from 11th-17th probably. I also believe there will be opportunity for him to snug some top 5 and top 10 finishes. I would expect those chances to come at tracks like Michigan, Las Vegas, Texas, Kansas, etc. If you want a in-depth look at Paul Menard, then I would highly recommend checking out Jeff's Fantasy Nascar Preview on Paul Menard (click here to view it).

2. Aric Almirola - Almirola blew me away last season how consistent he was last season. He always been a somewhat consistent driver for RPM, but last season I think we saw him step it up a notch. Especially in the final 21 races. In the final 21 races of 2015, he posted 16 Top 18 finishes. With 5 of his 6 top 10 finishes coming in the final 11 races. Hopefully he take last season's and apply it this upcoming season. I expect him to be his strongest at the short flat racetracks (Phoenix and New Hampshire) and short tracks (Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol). He also will have several strong solid runs on the intermediate racetracks. Especially the 1.5 mile high-speed intermediate tracks. He seems to have a habit of running well at them. Personally I expect big things from Aric Almirola in 2016. I think he is going to stabilize himself as a top 15 driver to top 20 early in 2016. What impresses me most about Aric is what he can do with average equipment. Considering there are probably close 20 drivers in better rides than him. I expect him to have mainly finish from the mid to upper teens, but as the season goes on he should contend for finishes closer to the top 10 though.

3. Kyle Larson - I have heard a lot of talking going on about Kyle Larson this offseason and none of it have been good! Larson will enter his 3rd full-season as a Cup driver and everyone is overlooking the young CGR driver. If you watched Larson last season, then you know how fast he was all season long. There no doubt about it. He had speed in that 42 machine almost every race weekend. Most weekends, he had top 10 or top 15 speed. What hurt him was how many poor finishes he came away with. Most times it was him overdriving his equipment, stupid mistakes or just plain bad luck. In 2016, I expect him to rebound fairly nice. I believe Larson will take some of those poor 20-ish place finishes from 2015 and turn them into solid results. However I don't think he will find victory lane. I think last season, everyone was pressuring him to perform at a high-level after a stout rookie season. Now everyone expectations are lower for him, I think that going to help him a lot. Larson will likely continue to be inconsistent like he was last season, but I also expect him to have better fantasy production though. More top 5, top 10 and top 15 finishes. Hopefully a similar stat line to the 2014 season or closer to it.


Okay that's it for my 2016 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers! This wasn't a long post and I probably could have added some stats, but the general projection of this was to give you an overview of the top sleepers. Obviously once we get into the season, I will use stats and comparisons to sell you on a driver. Anyhow I hope you all enjoyed this short piece. 

Thanks for reading,

Garry Briggs