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I love Atlanta, I have always considered this as one of my favorite racetracks on the schedule. This is one of the tracks that where track position really isn't that important. The racing surface at Atlanta is pretty worn out, so we tend to see solid number of passing throughout the race. I don't expect anything different to really happen than from usual. We will see the big-names rise to the top before it all said and done. They may not all start there, but mark my words that they will get there and they will likely finish there too. I also think it important to take notes who is fast, because we are headed to Las Vegas next week and it is also an worn-out intermediate racetrack. So having addition notes to that race data will be extremely helpful when selecting our lineups then. For now let's get into today's preview!
Let get started!
1-Jamie Mac: I fully expect CGR as whole to be better than they were a season ago. I think both him and Kyle Larson will be their strongest on the intermediate tracks. More specially they should be solid on the 1.5 milers like here at Atlanta. Last season at Atlanta, he finished 40th after getting caught up the Jeff Gordon wreck. Over the past three seasons at Atlanta, he have compiled 21.0 average finish, 11.0 average start, 14.0 average running position and 81.4 driver rating. In 2014, he finished 12th place. Over the past 6 Atlanta races (dating back to 2010), he have finished 12th-16th in 4 of the past 6 races. If the trend continues then you can expect another top 15 finish from him in this weekend race. In two races in 2015 that they used 2016 rule packages, he compiled 14.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 82.3 driver rating. His numbers were not terrible last season at Kentucky and Darlington. But like recent numbers they points him to be a low teen-like driver.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski will be a top 10 threat for this weekend race, but beyond that he haven't been that good recently at Atlanta. Even though he was strong last season at Kentucky and Darlington, where he compiled 4.0 average finish with 3.5 average running position and 131.0 driver rating. I would say he was the strongest driver last season in races that they tested out the 2016 rule packages. Over the past 3 season at Atlanta, he have compiled 27.7 average finish, 12.3 average start, 9.7 average running position and 92.0 driver rating. He finished 9th last season at Atlanta and posted 10.0 average running position with 96.0 driver rating. He was never a race-winning threat, but like much of 2015, he was good enough to be a top 10 driver though. Overall he have finished 3 of the past 5 races inside the top 9 at Atlanta. The two races he didn't? He had an engine let go and another race he had an accident. So if he doesn't have any problems, then he likely will finish inside the top 10. However I think Penske will benefit greatly from this season's rule package, so I think he finishing position will around the top 5.
3-Austin Dillon: We saw a large improvement from 2014 to 2015 out of Austin Dillon and one of the most noticeable improvements can be seen on the intermediate racetracks. I am pretty certain that the intermediate racetracks is where we will see Dillon at his best. It's very hard to judge Dillon at Atlanta, since none of his races can be counted as reliable race data behind wheel of the #3 car. In three career races at Atlanta, he have compiled 27.3 average finish with 26.7 average running position and 58.2 driver rating. His best career finish came in 2013 in the #33 car with Circle sport (former RCR alliance) and finished 19th place. That remains his best career race to date so far. In his rookie year with RCR in the #3 car, he finished 24th. To be fair, his team was holding him back with how they setup his car. They wanted him to get use to the cup level to start the season. Last season he qualified 15th and ran around there for awhile, but wrecked early in the event. He eventually finished 39th and close to 40 laps down. So really hard to get a good idea what to expect. However he ran okay last season at Kentucky and Darlington. In races that they used 2016 rule package, he compiled 23.5 average finish with 20.0 average running position. That alright I guess, but not exactly what I am hoping for out him, since we saw him run better last season than that at times. To me, I think there too many unknowns to take a chance with Dillon. I would personally play the wait and see game with him.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is immediately one of the first drivers that I think of when I think of the intermediates and also one of the first drivers I think of at Atlanta as well. Last season he had bullet of a racecar and was top 5 strong all day, eventually he found himself finishing 2nd to Johnson. In fact he had the dominating car that day and led a race-high 116 laps. Over the past 3 seasons at Atlanta, he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 4.7 average running position and 122.7 driver rating. Impressive stat line, however it is misleading. Yeah hard to believe, right? He finished 19th in 2014. But he was dominated that day. Nobody could come within a foot of him in that race, if I remember correctly. Late in the race, a gambling Paul Menard had a slow restart and Harvick got caught up in a wreck, pretty much ending his night at the victory. In that race he led a race-high 195 laps. He have led 100+ laps in 3 of his past Atlanta races. Harvick haven't always been good at Atlanta though. In his first 14 career races, he only had two top 10 finishes (including a win and 3rd place finish in his first two races). However in 2008, he turned the corner and never looked back. Over his past 11 races at Atlanta, he have compiled 8 Top 9 finishes and 4 of those races ended inside the top 5. More recently, he have finished 4 of the past 5 races inside the top 9. At races in 2015 that they raced 2016 race package, he compiled 6.5 average finish with 5.0 average running positon and 114.1 driver rating.
5-Kasey Kahne: I trust Kasey Kahne like I trust my kids to spend my money wisely! I have made it no secret for my dislike for Kasey Kahne as a fantasy pick. But I will give him credit though, he was bad fast last season here at Atlanta. He had a top 5 car before fading late in the event. Over the past 3 seasons, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 83.3 driver rating. In 2014, he won at Atlanta. But I wouldn't put too much into that race for two reasons. One it was a night race and two he needed to win to make the chase. So there a very good chance, HMS gave him the best equipment possible. That won't be the case this time around. He will likely contend for a finish between the higher single digits and low teen-like finishes. Last season in races they used the 2016 race package, he compiled 19.5 average finish with 18.5 average running position and 76.6 driver rating. He finished 28th at Kentucky after having some sort of mechanical issue late in the race. He finished 12th Darlington. He wasn't nothing special in either race though. Ran in the lower teens mainly!
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is fresh off a win at Daytona and have locked himself into the chase for the 2016 season basically. He should be a solid pick this weekend at Atlanta as JGR should have the speed to be up front all weekend long. Last season at Atlanta, he finished 38th after having issues. He started 4th and led 14 laps. Over the past 3 seasons at Atlanta, he have compiled 26.3 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 86.3 driver rating. In 2014, he finished 3rd after leading 37 laps. Over the past 5 Atlanta races, he have finished 8th or better in 3 of 5 races. The two he didn't? finished 38th both times because of issues during the race. Over the past 4 races overall, he have either finished inside the top 5 or 38th place. Boom or bust pretty much, wouldn't you say? Last season when 2016 rules package was employed, he compiled 3.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 115.9 driver rating. I would go out and say that Hamlin will have top 5 potential for Sunday's race. I want to see how does in practice first though.
16-Greg Biffle: Greg Biffle is coming off a poor finish at the Daytona 500. I really had somewhat high hopes for him in Daytona, but his day went downhill fast after a tire went down. I wouldn't call him hopes at Atlanta that great either. He haven't been bad recently, but his performance last season was pretty pathetic. In that event, he started 19th, finished 25th, posted 60.4 driver rating and 22.0 average running position. Over the past 3 Atlanta races, he have compiled 16.7 average finish with 19.7 average running position and 72.9 driver rating. Prior to finishing 25th last season, he had 4 straight finishes between 10th-15th place. I think it is a bit unfair to solely judge Biffle on last season's race where RFR was pretty far behind still. Since then, I have seen improvements from this organization as a whole. He wasn't terrible last season in the 2 races that they used 2016 rules package, but he wasn't that good either. He compiled 17.0 average finish with 20.0 average running position and 72.2 driver rating. I think Biff will finish somewhere around 14th-20th in Sunday's race!
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch have not skip a beat after winning the championship in 2015 and looked stout at Daytona. I think he keeps up his impressive start to the season at Atlanta! He missed last season race, but he is a 2-time Atlanta winner since joining JGR. So I am not worried at all. Over the past 2 Atlanta races, he have compiled 8.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. He won at Atlanta in 2013 after leading 36 laps. Overall he have finished inside the top 6 in 3 of his past 5 races at Atlanta. In 10 starts with JGR, he have finished half (5) of those events inside the top 6. He have finished 8 of 10 races inside the top 18. He have led least 19 laps in 6 of those 10 races at Atlanta. Including 5 of his past 7 Atlanta races! He was strong in races that they tested the 2016 rules package. He compiled 4.0 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 122.6 driver rating. I think JGR will be the team to beat all season long and I think that starts here at Atlanta. Heading into practice, I view Kyle as a top 5 to winning fantasy pick.
19-Carl Edwards: I view Carl Edwards as one of the strong favorites for this event. Last season I was a little iffy about Edwards, but that was because he was with a new team. He now comfortable at JGR and have a impressive track record at Atlanta throughout his career. That won't change this weekend. Over the past three seasons at Atlanta, he have compiled 11.7 average finish with 7.7 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. He finished 12th in last season's event. Even though he had a top 10 car for the event. In 2014, he finished 5th and was strong all race long. Not top 5 strong, but still around top 10 strong. In 2013, he led 68 laps on his way to an misleading 18th place finish. Overall he have finished 11 of his 18 career races inside the top 7! Including 9 Top 5 finishes since joining the cup series back in 2005. This have always been a great racetrack for him and I fully expect him to have more success with JGR. He was strong last season when this rules package was employed at Darlington and Kentucky. He compiled 2.5 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 109.2 driver rating. His 13.0 RP isn't that impressive like his teammates, but it should be noted he managed only an 16.5 average starting position, so that have to be factored in as well. I think Edwards will be a very popular pick this weekend and for good reason too.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth like his teammates should be strong picks for Atlanta this weekend! Last season he was top 10 guy all day long and finished 5th at the 1.5 mile intermediate racetrack. Over the past 3 seasons at Atlanta, he have compiled a series-leading 6.3 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 104.7 driver rating. His number aren't just good over the past 3 seasons, but he been like a machine at this place! He have 16 STRAIGHT top 13 finishes. No joke, he have 16 straight top 13 finishes dating back to the 2005 Nascar season. That is a decade of races at Atlanta Motor Speed by the way. In that span, he have posted 10 Top 9 finishes. Including 5 of the past 7 races ending inside the top 9. To me Kenseth isn't the sexy product like Kevin Harvick or Joey Logano, but it hard not to be impressive. Most people will overlook him because he is known for his consistent finishes more than dominating races. And that's fine by me, I will take consistency running up front all day long. Especially with the upside that he brings to the table.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney will battle for ROTY honors in 2016 with fellow rookie competitors! None of the rookies got off to great a start. Blaney one of them who was able to finish last Sunday's Daytona 500 (19th place). Blaney does not have any data at Atlanta to fall back on, so we will have look at races that Nascar employed this season rules package at in 2015. He only raced of the two events (Darlington). In that race, he started 9th, finished 30th, posted 28.0 average running position and 66.6 driver rating. He had a issue in that race that admired him back in the pack. So it really hard to get a good feel from him overall. However I do believe the intermediate racetracks will be one of his strong suits. Combine how he performed last season with his Wood brothers strong alliance with Penske, I think he will be solid contender for a top 15 to top 20 finish. Personally I don't really trust him. So far in his cup career he haven't found a lot of luck. I am not gonna touch until he proves himself this season. In Yahoo, I might though. Just depends how he looks in practice.
22-Joey Logano: Logano should be easily one of the heavy favorites to win Sunday's race at Atlanta. He really been the best driver recently on the intermediate racetracks and was pretty stout with his package in the two events last season. Over the past 3 seasons at Atlanta, he have compiled 6.7 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 121.0 driver rating. When looking at the numbers, he been right there with Kevin Harvick in regards to the next driver in the series at this place since 2013. He finished 2nd in 2013 and 4th place in last season's race. He wasn't bad in 2014 race either. In that event, he finished 14th and probably had about an top 10 car for that event. Outside of the past three seasons, you can pretty much just ignore since the data is inaccurate. Especially since he never really had any real success with JGR in the 20 car. He was stout when Nascar started this season's rule package in 2015. He compiled 3.0 average finish with 4.0 average running position and 120.7 driver rating. In fact, I would say that Penske had the strongest two cars last season at Kentucky and Darlington based on the numbers.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott had a tough race at Daytona. He started off very well and then his day went to crap after wrecking right in front of Carl Edwards and crashing into the grass. There isn't any race data to go on with Elliott. So there isn't a lot to say about him, but I would say based on his lower series stats, he is a solid driver on the intermediates. He will likely hang out from the lower 20s to mid teens at Atlanta. Depending how HMS wants to play it. Realistically I think Elliott can finish inside the top 20 in his debut at Atlanta. I think anything beyond that is pushing it though. I am very interested how Elliott does in the upcoming weeks.
27-Paul Menard: I won't bore you all with a lot of stats. Just know that Menard is a solid teen driver with the tendency to often start off the season well. Over the past three races at Atlanta, he have compiled 18.3 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 71.1 driver rating. Okay that's not very impressive. To be fair, he finished 24th in 2013. Over the past two seasons he have had finishes of 13th and 18th. Since joining RCR, he have compiled 4 Top 18 finishes in 5 races. At end of the day, he isn't the sexy option that you are drooling over. But is the fantasy option that will deliver a reliable result if you are looking to go off-sequence. Given you are willing to give up some points to the competition. In races that they used the 2016 rule packages, he compiled 20.5 average finish with 21.5 average running position and 66.4 driver rating. He wasn't great in either race, but not too far off his range though. I would expect a finish between 13th-18th place.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt should be a solid top 10 driver at Atlanta, but I am expecting more than that though. I felt like he solid last season in the two events that we employed 2016 rule packages. But not at the point where he was overly strong though. He compiled 8.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 104.6 driver rating. Typically any driver ratin between an high-90 and low 100 driver rating is a indication that an driver performed in the mid to high single digits. His average running position backed that up too. Clearly that is small simple size, so I am not sure how much you should put in that. However for now that is the main data we have to go on. And combined that to his Atlanta stats recently. Over the past two seasons he have compiled 8.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 92.2 driver rating. Overall he been pretty strong at Atlanta. Over his past 9 races at the racetrack, he have compiled 6 Top 6 finishes. Including 2 wins since the 2009 season. Both came in back-to-back spring races (2009 and 2010). In his lone start with SHR at Atlanta, he finished 13th in 2014 as he led 22 laps in that race after starting 22nd. Headed into this weekend, my mindset is that the chevys are still behind JGR and Penske. Until I saw evidence of that proves otherwise, I am going to be a bit lower on those organizations like HMS and SHR.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is a interesting driver for sure in 2016. He is someon that I am very much will be keeping my eye on early in the season. He looked pretty good at Daytona for much of that event. And I think he will keep up his solid start at Atlanta. I think Larson is one of those drivers who really will benefit from this package. Over the past two season at Atlanta, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 83.7 driver rating. He finished 8th in his Atlanta debut, but he followed that up an disappointing 26th place finish last season. To be fair, he ran decent in that race though. He just got caught back in traffic and got into someone else's wreck, if I remember correctly. He was strong last season in race that they employed the 2016 rules package. He compiled 22.5 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 87.5 driver rating. Hard to judge him off of that though. Since he wrecked out of Kentucky. However he was top 10 strong for much of that race. He was pretty solid at Darlington too. Believe he got his car up near the top 5, before the final caution slowed his progress. He should be a top 10 driver this weekend in my opinion.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is someone who I think will be overlooked this week, but I personally don't know where he or HMS is in terms of progress from last season. They struggled with this package in my opinion. I think this race package more favors the Penske and JGR cars. Last season in races that this package was employed, he compiled 14.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 86.7 driver rating. So he wasn't terrible, but he wasn't at the level that we were expecting. He been very good at Atlanta recently though. Over the past 3 Alanta races, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 96.1 driver rating. He have finished 1st and 4th the past two season. Including winning this event last season. He have finished inside the top 5 in 4 of the past 6 Altlanta races. In fact, he have finished 8 of his past 14 races inside the top 5. Based on pure history, I would say Johnson is a must-have on your team. But that isn't the case. For now I am waiting to see what happens with practice and qualifying first before I decide what to do with him.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex looked pretty strong at Daytona but I think we will know what they have at Atlanta. I will be honest, I was a little worried about the 78 team. I thought they might come swinging out of the gates since they were switching from Chevy to Toyota. But after watching Daytona, my worries are gone. Of course that Daytona and you cannot really judge a team's speed that well. But I feel like they are in a good place right now. He was very strong last season here at Atlanta. He finished 6th place after having a top 10 car for most of the event. Over the past 3 seasons at Atlanta, he have compiled 10.7 average finish with 11.7 average running position and 91.5 driver rating. So not like he just started running well out of nowhere at Atlanta. Over his past 6 races, he have finished 14th or better in 5 of those races. Including finshes of 6th or better 2 of his past races. He have ran very well at Altanta recently and I have a strong feeling that will be the case well again. He complied 13.0 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 104.6 driver rating in races that they used the 2016 rules packages last season.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr started the season off with a bang and not one that fantasy players wanted to see either. So he started off the season off slow, now we head to Altanta. Can he get back on track? I think he can, but likely only will finish inside the top 10 based on the numbers though. Over the past 3 seasons at Atlanta, he have compiled 7.3 average finish with 9.7 average running position and 99.1 driver rating. He finished 3rd here last season, but that his lone top 5 finish other finishing 3rd in his HMS debut in 2008. Overall he have finished 7th-17th in 7 of his 11 races with HMS. 3 straight finishes from 7th-11th prior to finishing 3rd in last season's event. He compiled 14.5 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 77.6 driver rating in races that they employed the 2016 rules package last season. So not exactly what you want to hear, if you are considering him as fantasy pick. Could that be misleading? Oh for sure it could! Especially since it such as small data sample. However it all we have to go on for now. So until I see an reason to consider him, I am playing the wait and see game with the 88 team.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
