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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: JMac is well on his way to a second straight chase birth with a quality effort at Bristol. Now, he just needs solid top 15 finishes over the next few races before the final 10 races. But he been running a lot better lately, it seems like the Chip Ganassi cars are hitting their stride right now in the speed department. Earlier this season, teammate Kyle Larson was a standout at Michigan with this new race downforce package. That should benefit JMac some, maybe get some pointers or something. But he wasn't bad either, he ran around top 15 good for most of that event. In fact, he spent 50% of the race inside the top 15 and finished. He been solid at Michigan for awhile now. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 84.1 driver rating. Not only a pretty solid record, but he have ran pretty well in recent Sprint Cup series races. As I mentioned earlier, he finished 9th place earlier this season at Michigan. That may have jump started his season. He have been competitive in every race since. Had bad luck at Sonoma and Daytona. But since Kentucky, he have been on it! Over the past 6 Cup races, he have finished 8th or better in 4 of 6 races. He should be considered least a top 15 option at Michigan this weekend, if not more with solid practice sessions.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off a poor Bristol race, not because he performed bad. He ran well (not great, but well), however he got tangled with Kurt Busch late in the race. He should rebound nicely at Michigan though. He had a top 5 car back in June and should be good once again. Over the past 4 Michigan races, he have compiled 6.8 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 105.9 driver rating. He finished 5th back in June and was very strong. Behind Logano, Elliott and Larson, he made a strong case to have the 4th-best car. Maybe 5th, if you put Smoke ahead of him (he was good too). Still, he had a top 5 good car. He even led some laps (10) in that race. He been consistent at Michigan for awhile now. He have finished 13th or better in 10 straight Michigan races. Including 7 Top 10 finishes in that span. On top of that, he has 5 straight Top 9 finishes entering the weekend at Michigan. Despite all of that success, he have never won at this racetrack for some reason. To me that is a bit shocking, but it will only be matter time before he wins though. Also Keselowski have been the most consistent driver in the series, dating back to Talladega (11 races ago). In that 11-race span, he have posted an series-best 7.8 average finish. Including 7 Top 5 finishes. His other 4 finishes? 15th, 17th, 33rd and 15th. So he been top 5 or bust really from a fantasy vantage point. It should be noted that, he have finished 3 of past 5 races in 15th or worse. But the other two (WGI, Pocono) races, he finished inside the top 3. However, Keselowski should be on the short-list of possible winners this weekend.
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon had one of his best finishes of the season at Bristol and will look to build on that momentum at Michigan. And not to mention that Michigan is his favorite's racetrack (he have said that multiple times since being in Cup). While listening to MRN broadcast in June, Austin Dillon mentioned he loves big, fast racetracks (even though it not a secret) like Michigan. He been very good recently at the track. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 89.6 driver rating. He have had some misleading finishes at Michigan so far in his cup career, which is why some people will overlook him while looking at his cup stats here. Finished 30th, 22nd and 20th from June 2014 to June 2015 races. But he was about top 15 to top 20 good in all of those races. Better than his finishes let on. Just poor luck. Including speeding penalties and flat tires. But he have shown why he has great potential recently with his last two races. As he have posted finishes of 8th and 4th. Last August, he had one of his best of his career (arguably second-best), when he started and finished 4th. Why was it so impressive? He had to start dead last after engine change, but then charged through the field and took the lead. What stood out was he was one of the very few who could pass a dominant (and eventual race winner) Matt Kenseth. He led 19 laps on that day. A few race ago at Pocono, he was in a position to win his first cup race if the race played out a little differently. Two different tracks (Pocono and Michigan), but they are both big and fast. As I said earlier, he loves these type of tracks. I bet his first cup win comes on this sort of track! He was top 10 good back in June here as well. I like him as a top 12 to top 15 fantasy option as of right now, with upside to finish inside the top 10.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick will be a top fantasy pick this weekend at Michigan, even more so after his win at Bristol. A win many didn't see coming, after qualifying 24th. However, I wasn't too shocked. Poor qualifying efforts isn't anything new for him and we all know how much speed is in the #4 car. And at Michigan, he have been a complete stud overall. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.5 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 111.9 driver rating. He finished 5th place back in August, but wasn't really ever a race-winning threat. A big reason for that was because he qualified 29th after pitiful qualifying session. He was around back that up and perform well overall though. But I am sure his performance would have been better, if he didn't have to start so far back. Not only did that put him in a hole early, but his pit selection wasn't that great either. Over the past 9 races at Michigan, he have finished 8 of those 9 races inside the top 10. In fact, he have finished 6 of the past 7 races here inside the top 5. With 5 of those 6 top 5 finishes, ending in 2nd place. The lone race he finished outside of the top 5? 29th place in June 2015. He dominated that race, but he had a flat tire after a late caution, before the rain came. He never was able to rebound and then the race was called. He have been more consistent in the August races, including 3 straight 2nd place finishes during the August races. Over the past 10 Sprint Cup races this season, he have posted the 3rd-best average finish (11.8) with 3rd-best driver rating (102.2). He been even better since New Hampshire. Over the past 5 races, he have finished 6th or better in 4 of the past 5 races. He had 5.0 average finish in races he was able to finish in that span. Only race he didn't finish was Watkins Glen for anyone wondering. He is my pick to go to victory lane this weekend!
5-Kasey Kahne: A few years ago or maybe even last season, it would be concerning that Kasey Kasey have gone 7 straight races without a top 10 finish. But it have became a common theme that Kasey have finish outside of the top 10. In fact, he have only 6 Top 10 finishes in 23 starts this season. He also went a 10-race stench last season (in 2015) after Sonoma, ironically his last top 10 this season was Sonoma as well. See a trend? I do. Will he break his top 10-less streak? Maybe. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, he have compiled 14.8 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 82.5 driver rating. He been consistent at Michigan. Over the past 6 races, he have finished inside the top 16 in every race. Over the past 8 races, he have finished 7 of those inside the top 16. He have finished his last 4 races in between 13th-16th place. Earlier this season (in June), he finished in 13th. However, despite finishing finished 13th he wasn't that good overall. He only posted 70.6 driver rating and 20.0 average running position. While only spending 13% of the laps inside the top 15. So just the final laps of the race. A good August summer stat about Kasey Kahne at Michigan? He have finished inside the top 16 in every race here (in August), dating back to the 2008(!) season. Kasey Kahne should be a solid top 15 option headed into the weekend!
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is the hottest driver in the series at the momentum and have some great racetracks to coming up before the chase (and in the chase). Michigan use to be one of his best tracks and finished inside the top 2 from June 2010 to June 2011. And recently, he have started to turn it around, too. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.0 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 92.2 driver rating. He been strong a lot lately. He finished 33 earlier this season, but he was strong before getting involved in an accident. Last August, he was very good once again and finished 5th place. Before that event, he had finishes of 11th and 7th as well. So, he seems to be onto something lately at this track. On top of that, he never had more momentum this season than he has right now. Over the past 5 Sprint Cup series races, he have posted an 4.2 average finish with 5 Top 9 finishes. It also should be noted that, he have started 6th or better in every single one of those races. While leading each of his last two races. Hamlin is starting to heat up at the right time and this might be a good week to employ him. Personally I find it ridiculous that more fantasy players haven't jumped on the Hamlin bandwagon. I am on and gonna see how much stream it can gain. He's a top 10 guy headed into practice in my book.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr is coming off an career-best 2nd place finish at Bristol, so can he take that and use it as momentum? I don't know honestly. His season have gone south, since that consistent start the the season up until Pocono. Since wrecking at Michigan (in June), he have been inconsistent. Over the past 9 races this season, he have finished 4 of those 9 races in 26th or worse. He been better over the past 5 though. He have posted 3 Top 12 finishes over his past 5 races since New Hampshire. So that's positive, right? You bet, but his numbers at Michigan haven't been that good though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 23.8 average finish with 22.0 average running position and 63.5 driver rating. Not good numbers overall. Even though, he finished 3 of his first 4 races inside the top 19. Including an 15th place finish back in August 2014. Speaking from performance that is his best race at Michigan. He have finished 25th-29th in his last 3 Michigan races. Headed into the race, I am not very high on Stenhouse Jr. If he was more consistent with his finishes and had higher upside, then I would be more on board with him this week. Honestly, at best this week he get an 15th place finish. Anything beyond that is likely bonus for anyone who uses him.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is coming off a poor Bristol finish, where he was looking dominated through about 300 laps. But then he had a parts failure, which costed him another win probably. He knows turn his attention to Michigan. A questionable track for him, but I don't think the track record will matter much when it comes to him. He has a lot of speed every weekend, so it won't matter too much. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 33.3 average finish with 28.5 average running position and 65.0 driver rating. He have finished 31st or worse in 5 of the past 6 races at this track, but it not because he have ran poorly though. Over the past 9 Michigan races, he have failed to finish on the lead lap in 6 of those races. Most of those races, he have had a pretty quality racecar. However, much like a lot of Rowdy's finishes. It was simply just pure bad luck. In the June race, he wasn't bad at all. He was running top 10 before his engine let go, after the first 52 laps. There isn't a lot to say about Busch this week really. He will have top 10 potential headed into the race, but his track record will likely chase most fantasy players away from rolling the dice with him though.
19-Carl Edwards: Last week at Bristol, it was looking like JGR was for sure going to victory lane. Him, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin were looking very stout early and often. But Busch had a parts failure, Hamlin had problems in the pits and Edwards couldn't get going on restarts. However like Hamlin, he (Edwards) was able to score solid finish. So it wasn't a bad weekend for the JGR camp. They weren't great back in June (at Michigan), but I expect them to be much better this time around. I think Edwards will be leading the charge. He is one of the drivers who loves this race package the most and has a great track record here. Over past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.8 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 97.0 driver rating. He finished 6th earlier this season here and posted 100.0 driver rating. Last August, he finished 6th once again. He performed a little better in that event and about top 5 to top 7 good for much of that event. His best performance at Michigan (since joining JGR) was his debut in last June's race. He started 4th and finished 12th. Performance wise, he was very good and was top 5 good for the race. He led 41 laps in the early going, before falling back before the rain came and derailed a strong finish for him. Edwards is probably a top 5 guy headed into practice!
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth last weekend was considered one of the favorites headed into the race, but ended up being involved in a wreck though. So I am willing to bet, most people will steer away from him. Last season, we saw something similar happen and went on to win this event. Do I think he can repeat last season's win? No, I don't think so. JGR running better than anyone one else right now. However, Kenseth just haven't proven to me that he can go up front and lead a lot of laps. He will be a solid top 10 guy though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.3 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 94.2 driver rating. He does have finishes of 14th (in June), 1st and 3rd over his past 3 starts. He wasn't ever a factor earlier this season in June though. He had one of his worst performances of the season and I cannot figure out why honestly. Not like he spent most of the race a lap down or anything, he just ran poorly. Kenseth have posted 4 Top 10 finishes over his past 6 Sprint Cup Series races this season. I think he will rebound and make it 5 of his past 7 after the weekend is over.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney had one of his best races of the season at Bristol (as I expected he would), but he didn't the result he wanted in the end though. He need to (and should) run quite well at Michigan. This is another Ryan Blaney (and wood bro) type racetrack. It may be the opposite of Bristol (big and fast), but Blaney this season seems to excel on tracks that don't see a lot of tire wear. Michigan would qualify as the lap times don't drop too much. Most similar racetrack? Kansas. How did he do there? Oh, he just had a top 5 car with top 5 finish and finished 6th. No big deal, you know? Another good track to compare to Michigan? Las Vegas from way earlier this season. He finished 5th place there. He haven't fair too well at Michigan (in the finishes department) overall though. In 3 career starts, he have a best finish of 17th this past June. But he was better than that though. In that event, he held an average running position of 14th and ran inside the top 15 for 2/3 (66%) of the race. He was very strong back at Michigan. Started from 5th and ran inside the top 10 a lot early in the race, but then his day went south. He unfavorably caution flew during green flag stops and put him deep in the running order. He battled back into contention, before bouncing off the wall, while running around 10th place. After that, he slid back and finsihed 17th place. I think he at least an top 15 driver this weekend. That 21 car seems to have a lot of speed in it lately, too.
22-Joey Logano: Logano coming off a disappoint Bristol race that many expected him to deliver a top 5 finish. He wasn't bad though and finished about 10th place. Regardless many fantasy players expected him to be more than he was. He now heads to another great racetrack for him. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 4.0 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 121.3 driver rating. He dominated this race earlier this season and eventually went to victory lane. In fact, he have never finished worse than 9th place at this track, since joining Penske (7 races ago). He scored his first win back in August 2013 and have finished 4 of his past 6 races inside the top 5. Even better? 2 of his past August races have ended inside the top 3. He finished 7th in last August race here. Historically speaking, when Logano starts up front at Michigan, he goes on to dominate and finish inside the top 3. He have started inside the top 3 in 3 races (June 2016, August 2014, August 2013) and his numbers are unreal. In those 3 races, he have compiled 1.7 average finish, 1.3 average starting position, 3.0 average running position, 275 laps led and 140.5 driver rating. So how good have been in those races compared to the field? His 1.7 average finish ranks as the series-best (Harvick is second with 3.0 - min. 3 starts). His 1.3 average starting position ranks as series-best. Second-best (among driver who qualify - 3 starts min.)? Brad Keselowski at 9.7 and Carl Edwards at 11.0. His average running position is once again a series-best (3.0). Second-best is a full-3 positions behind (drivers who qualify with 3 starts min.). His 275 laps led and 106 fast laps are also series-best. Of drivers who ran all three races, nobody else have more than 46 of either. And finally his driver rating also ranks as series-best at 140.7. My point being? If Joey Logano qualifies up front, he usually goes on to make it a very long day for everyone else at Michigan.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott showed a lot of potential to break out of his top 10-less streak at Bristol, but faded in the latter laps of the race after getting damage from a wreck. So he will try to rebound at track that he was very strong at earlier this season. I was convinced that he could have won at Michigan, if there was another restart. But regardless he had the second-best car to eventual race winner Joey Logano. He will look to rebound at Michigan. He been rock strong this season on the intermediate racetracks, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him up front contending for the win again. Ironically, his last top 10 finish was finishing 2nd at Michigan back in June. So maybe, his season will come full-circle and finish back up front. At this point, I am only saying he is a top 15 fantasy option, but he could definitely change my mind after practice and qualifying.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman had a poor Bristol race, but he comes to one of his favorite racetracks in Michigan. He always seems to run pretty well at this place, no matter what team he drives for. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 90.3 driver rating. He finished 11th back in June and led one lap, after starting from 6th place. Performance wise, he had one of his better races this season. He held an 96.8 driver rating and 9.0 average running position. He also completed 96% of the laps inside the top 15, which further showed how strong he was for that race. Not the first time, he have been good here. Overall, he have posted 11 straight Top 18 finishes, dating back to the 2011 season. Including 9 Top 15 finishes in that 11 race span. Over his past 4 races at this track, he have finished 11th or better in 3 of those 4 races. He have finished 5 of his last 8 races at Michigan in the top 13. Newman won't be the first driver that comes up at Michigan, but he definitely one of the safest option to go with though. Headed into the weekend, he is almost a lock to finish inside the top 15 in my book.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch streak of finishing on the lead lap ended at Bristol. I cannot believe that it took him almost 24-full races to finally not complete a lap this season. That's just crazy to me! He will try to rebound at Michigan. A track that have been unkind to him in the past. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 92.7 driver rating. Earlier this season at Michigan, he wasn't too bad overall. He finished 10th place, after starting from 17th. He wasn't ever a true contender but good enough to be a quality race though. He only have 6 Top 10 finishes over his past 20 races at Michigan. With 3 of those 6 ending inside the top 3. Including 2 wins. The most recent one coming last August! Despite a rough patch from 2010 to 2013, he is starting to find his stride at this track. Over the past 6 races at this place, he have compiled 4 Top 13 finishes. With 3 Top 10 finishes, 2 of those 3 have came in the past 3 races at this track. Kurt should be considered a top 10 option, but I really don't consider him anything beyond that though.
42-Kyle Larson: Is there a man with more bad luck than Kyle Larson? Okay, maybe just one, (cough) (cough) talking to you Martin Truex Jr! But seriously, Larson is running very strongly right now. Top 5 speed at both Watkins Glenn and Bristol, but never saw get the results. The race before that? Pocono. Probably had the right strategy down, if the race played out a little differently. Not only is he running well, but his teammate (JMac) is also pretty fast. At a slow start, Chip Ganassi Racing have found the speed they are looking for. This is probably Larson's last real shot at making the chase, he needs a win and I am sure that 42 team will do everything they can to get him there. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 19.0 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 86.2 driver rating. Misleading numbers, as Larson had that DNF back in 2014 August's race. If you exclude that race, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 97.1 driver rating. Believe it or not, Larson have had 3 chances to legitimately go to victory lane. In his first time, he was on the same pit strategy as eventual race winner (Jimmie Johnson) but was penalize and had to fight back to finish 8th. His next slipped away opportunity was June 2015, a rain-shortened race. Larson had the race-lead late but had to pit. Few laps later the rain came and he was in 17th place. He was top 10 good for much of that event. His latest win that slip away was this past June's race. Not sure, if he ever had a shot at the win, but he definitely had a top 5 racecar though. Larson probably has potential for top 10, if everything goes according to plan. He always have upside, so top 5 isn't out of the question, either. But I wouldn't bank on it though.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johsnon scored just his 4th top 10 finish over his past 16 races at Bristol, and will try to build on that 7th place finish. However, he has a tall task at hand though. He have struggled to finish races here in the past. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 20.8 average finish with 18.3 average running position and 81.3 driver rating. Over that 4-race span, he doesn't have any bad bad finishes, but 3 of the 4 have ended in 16th or worse. More concerning? Over the past 8 races here, he have posted 6 finishes of 16th or worse. 4 of those 6 races have ended in 26th or worse. His lone good top 10 finishes were in 2014, where he finished 9th and 1st. I am not really loving Johnson this weekend to be honest, it been awhile since I really liked Johnson at a track. Hendrick MotorSports just too far behind the comp to be relevantly competitively. They will run top 10 or top 15, but nothing much beyond that though.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr runs well each and every week, but each week he finds new ways to finish poorly. It was actually fitting that him and the Kyle Larson found themselves in the same wreck, both drivers seems to find mystery ways to find trouble. Truex more than Larson, but luckily Truex have locked himself into the chase already. Or otherwise it would be more concerning. Truex have ran well at Michigan recently. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 91.7 driver rating. He started off with some poor finishes with the 78 team at Michigan in his first two starts (36th and 33rd). However, he have finished 12th or better in his last three starts at Michigan. Including a pair of top 5 finishes in last season's races. In fact, he finished 3rd in both races. Overall, he have finished 6 of the past 9 Michigan races inside the top 12. If Truex Jr can avoid bad luck, then he is definitely a top 10 guy with major upside. Like most weeks, I am not very confident that he can do that. So don't be shocked, if I have him a bit lower in my fanasy nascar update this weekend.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
