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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: JMac had a nice rebound race at a screwy Charlotte race, where many of the top tier drivers had issues. Still, he had a top 10 car for much of the day. He now turns his attention to Kansas Speedway. JMac always runs well at Kansas, but always seems to find himself on the bad luck end of things though. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 24.6 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 77.1 driver rating. Overall 5 of his past 9 races at Kansas has ended in 16th or better, but none has been better than 9th though. 3 of his past other 4 races has been pure bad luck and they all has came since the first Kansas race of 2014. In May 2014, he was running 5th when he pancaked the wall very hard. I remember his car was on fire, because I started him in couple of my fantasy leagues on that Saturday's night race. Some things you just don't forget. Anyhow, he finished 39th that day. He came back in October and was extremely strong. He was running top 5 and got a speeding penalty with under 30 laps to go. He charged through the field back into the top 5 with just a couple laps to go, then he had some mechanical issues which dropped him to 25th place. Yes, I also started him that day as well. The dude couldn't catch a break at Kansas in 2014, it was stupid crazy! Last season, he fair a bit better with finishes of 13th and 20th. Unfortunately, earlier this season he found more bad luck at Kansas. He wasn't anything special on the first run of the race but after a round of pit stops, he was forced to make an unscheduled stop to fix unallowed adjustments to his car. That put him multiple laps down and he was playing catch-up rest of the race. Headed into this weekend's race, I view JMac as a top 15 driver most likely with a possible top 10 within reach.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is having a fine season, but a even better chase so far through 4 races. Much like last season up to this point, Keselowski haven't had that major slip up. The most noticeable thing about Penske at Charlotte last week? They had faster cars than they usually unload at the 1.5 mile tracks. That could be due to the lack of track time for the other teams, but I am not sure about that. They may have found something of late. He should continue the success at Kansas this week. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 15.0 average finish with 10.8 average running position and 95.6 driver rating. He had some bad luck in 2014, but since has finished inside the top 10 in 3 straight races. Overall, he has finished 11th or better in 8 of 11 career races since being put in the #2 car back in 2011. In fact, he won one of his first races in the #2 back in 2011 at Kansas in July. A strong asset that Keselowski holds? Leading laps at Kansas. He has led a lap in 6 straight races at Kansas. Including earlier this season, where he was a borderline top 5/top 10 driver. If you remember, he was involved in the Denny Hamlin wreck late in the event. However, he was able to battle back strongly to an 10th place finish. He has been strong on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase so far. On two-1.5 mile tracks (Chicagoland and Charlotte), he has compiled 6.0 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. He should be at least an top 10 driver, as always he will have the chance to finish top 5.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon had a tough race at Charlotte on Sunday afternoon and now will need two very strong races at Kansas and Talladega. He was able to finish inside the top 10 earlier this season here and should be a good choice once again. Over the past 5 races here at Kansas, he has compiled 19.2 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 747 driver rating. He haven't ever been impressive at Kansas, but in 3 of 5 races he has finished inside the top 20. Including an 6th place finish back in May. He wasn't quite that good, he struggled in the teens mainly. However, he was able to get track position late and snagged a strong top 10 finish. RCR as a whole has struggled on the 1.5 mile in the chase and haven't fair well like they did early in the season. I will say that his 16.5 average running position and 75.0 driver rating in two chase races at Chicagoland and Charlotte is pretty solid though. Not great, but pretty good considering he finished Charlotte more than 100 laps down. He did run nearly 70% of the laps inside the top 15 at Chicagoland and had 81.0 driver rating (with 14.0 average running position), for what it is worth. You are probably asking, ''Jeff, why aren't you looking at data from the entire season? He ran good at the 1.5 mile tracks all year, right?'' Yes, I could easily pull up stats from the entire season on intermediate tracks. However, there is a couple problems with that. The last 1.5 mile track before Chicagoland was Kentucky back in July. Before that? Back in May at Kansas. Point being? Teams' performances will change. Therefore looking at data from 3 or 4 months ago, isn't exactly the best idea. Of course that is solely my opinion and you are more than welcome to look up that data on your own. Dillon is a solid-lower teen driver headed into this weekend.
4-Kevin Harvick: Kevin Harvick for the second straight race found problems and for the second straight season is backed into a corner. Harvick is a fighter though and things we have learned about him is, he becomes dangerous when the odds are stacked against him. He has been great at Kansas since joining SHR. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 6.8 average finish with 5.6 average running position and 121.6 driver rating. Harvick haven't won at Kansas in the #4 car, but he has had some very impressive performances though. In 3 of 5 races with SHR at Kansas, he has finished 2nd place. The other two races? 12th and 16th. Obviously, he had misleading finishes in those races. Harvick does have a win recently at this track, but it was in 2013 with RCR where he started on the pole and dominated. In 21 career races, he has only finished worse than 16th in 3 races. This is easily one of his best tracks from a career point of view. Harvick has had a tough chase so far on the 1.5 milers. He had a top 3 based on pure speed at Chicagoland, but he put down a lap early because of a pit road miscue. Then had a strong car last weekend at Charlotte, but had a mechanical issue which ended his day. I learn when Harvick needs to win, he will find a way to win. He needs to win one of the next two races, I think he will have a great shot at the win. There isn't a track on the schedule (other than Phoenix), that he would rather be at this week.
5-Kasey Kahne: The HMS cars are on a roll in the chase and Kasey Kahne might have been the most beneficial of them all. I know, he isn't contending for wins like his two teammates are. But he might has had the biggest bump in performance of any of the HMS drivers. He ran top 10 at both of the 1.5 mile tracks in this chase. He has compiled 5.0 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 94.8 driver rating. Biggest surprise about those stats? He has the best average finish in the series in those two races. Something I wouldn't have guessed a couple months ago. He also has performed very well at Kansas Speedway recently. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 12.4 average finish with 10.8 average running position and 93.4 driver rating. Those are pretty strong numbers from Kahne, considering he had been in a funk the past couple seasons mainly. Overall, he has posted 4 Top 5 finishes over his past 8 races at Kansas. All since the repave by the way, for the record. The other 4 races? 15th-22nd place. All 4 of those races has came over the past 6 races here. That's not good at all, but that is solely past history. Earlier this season here, he was about an top 12 to top 14 driver for much of the race. He finished 16th, so he was in the range where he ran most of the night. I expect him to perform better this time around, with Hendrick being noticeably quicker.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin was another driver who had a poor race at Charlotte and will need to likely win in the next two races. He has been good at Kansas of late. Over the past 5 races here, he hs compiled 21.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 80.9 driver rating. Over his past 4 races, he been very predictable overall. In the May races (spring), he had a DNF (37th earlier this season and 41st in 2015). In the fall races (October), he has finishes of 7th and 2nd. Now, I don't know about anyone else I love those kind of trends. Hamlin has been a good performer on the 1.5 mile tracks this season, but haven't really been that great overall. He was very strong last week, until he had that engine issue. I think my biggest problem with Denny Hamlin is how Joe Gibbs Racing has lost his horsepower advantage over the Hendrick Motorsports. Now that JGR has lost it edge, I think Hamlin will be hurt the most. He been more inconsistent with his finishes as well. I don't like that very much. He should be a top 10 driver headed into the weekend, but unless he looks fast in practice, he probably doesn't have enough upside to warrant top 5 potential.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr is having a pretty good season overall, even though not many are giving him much credit though. Over the past 12 races this season (dating back to New Hampshire), he has compiled 8 Top 20 finishes overall. Including last week at Charlotte. His record at Kansas is pretty good as well. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 18.2 average finish with 19.2 average running position and 71.8 driver rating. Overall, he has made 7 career starts at Kansas Speedway. In those 7 races, he has finished 19th or better in 4 of those races. With 3 of those races, he has finished 13th or better. Even better? He has finished 13th in his last two races. Including back in May, where he ran top 15 for much of the night. From a pure performance standpoint, it was easily his second-best race at Kansas. His best race was back in 2013, RFR still had speed back in 2013 though. So it only nature that he had a better performance than though. Still, back in May he was very good. Headed into the weekend, he most likely a top 20 driver with enough to sneak out another top 15 finish at Kansas. Personally, I am not super high on him as a fantasy option. Unless, you are looking for a solid teen driver. Then he is your man, as he been pretty consistent all year, unless he has problems in the race.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy kept his strong chase going with a solid 6th place finish at Charlotte. Even though, he had to battle back from a unscheduled pit stop just before the halfway mark. That exactly how championship drivers perform, when they find themselves in a hole. Now, he looks onto Kansas. A racetrack where he has been known to be a weak performer at. But he has found the magic touch lately though. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 6.0 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 104.2 driver rating. In his first 14 career races at Kansas, he had only 2 career top 10 finishes. Over his past 3 races? 3 straight Top 5 finishes. Including a win back in May, where he led 69 laps on his way to victory lane. He probably had the 3rd or 4th best car in that race overall. Like so many other times, he found a way to get in a great position when it counted the most. He also has ran well on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase. As he has compiled 7.0 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 107.0 driver rating. He didn't have the best car in either race and had to battle back from issues early in the race. Still, when he needed to, he rebounded and got a solid finish in the end. Headed into the weekend, he is probably a boarderline top 5 finish or at worst just outside of that. His track record is concerning, but he has 3 straight top 5 finishes. That is not luck people. 3 or more of anything isn't luck, it is an trend. I like positive trends like that, as you should too!
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards has not had the best chase so far in 2016 and haven't had a top 5 finish since Kentucky. That was over 3 months now though. He had came close a few times since then with strong 6th or 7th place finishes. Still, no top 5 finishes in well over 10 races. He has been good at Kansas of late though. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 10.0 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 92.4 driver rating. This always been a great racetrack for Edwards though. He performed extremely well throughout his cup career here. Over his past 6 races alone, he has 5 Top 11 finishes. Including 4 Top 8 finishes. He has finishes of 8th and 11th over his past 2 races at the track. Earlier this season here, he finished 11th place. But he had a long day. He was running around 10th place and had a loose wheel. He went a lap down after that and it took him the entire event to rebound from it. He did finish nicely at the end, but I consider that to be his downfall of 2016. After that race, he has been on a downward spiral for the most part. Headed into this weekend race, I view him as a top 10 driver. Just because of his top tier equipment though. At the moment, I have absolutely zero faith in him. He haven't proven to me, he can finish well. Until he does, I am keeping his upside at a minimum. Least for the time being that is though.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth keep on doing what he does, getting strong finishes without anyone knowing it. With 5 of his past 6 races, he has finished 9th or better. The one race, he didn't? He wrecked at Bristol. In the chase, he has performed very well. Including 3 straight Top 5 finishes now with an strong 2nd place run at Charlotte. He now has two-2nd place finishes over his past 3 races. Yet, nobody is giving him much consideration as a possible championship contender. He should be on everyone short-list to make it very far in this chase. As for this weekend, he should be one of the favorites overall. He has ran very well at Kansas throughout his career and by far been one of his best tracks. Over his past 5 races here, he has compiled 9.4 average finish with 10.8 average running position and 102.8 driver rating. Over the past 12 races here, he has posted 8 Top 8 finishes. Including 2 wins over his past 8 races at this track. Only one of them has came, since joining the #20 team though. Over the past 6 races here, he has 4 Top 10 finishes. Including 2 Top 5 finishes over the past 3 races at Kansas. People don't give Matt Kenseth as a top tier driver in the series, he should be though. Headed into the weekend, he is a solid top 5 fantasy pick with the ability to challenge for the win.
22-Joey Logano: Logano had a very tough race at Charlotte, despite having one of his fastest cars in months. He needs to win at either Kansas or Talladega, or at worst outscore the other drivers who had a bad race at Charlotte. This is a great racetrack for Joey and he should have as good as shot as he will have in the chase. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 9.8 average finish with 5.8 average running position and 119.1 driver rating. Since joining the #22 team, he has been top 5 or nothing. In 7 starts with the #22 car, he has compiled 5 Top 5 finishes and 2 finishes outside of the top 35. In fact, over the past 4 races at Kansas, he has compiled 2 wins. Joey should be given strong consideration at Kansas this weekend. Not only because he has a great track record, however he could be a great value this week. Not many people will be jumping on the Logano bandwagon, as his performance and finishes haven't been all too great in the chase so far. If the 22 unloads fast, then he might be a bit of steal in certain fantasy formats. Personally, I view him nothing more than a top 10 driver headed into practice!
24-Chase Elliott: Chase Elliott much like Logano up above, will have to find a way to win likely over the next couple races to advance to the next round in the chase. Realistically, Elliott has a good chance to win at both Kansas and Talladega. I would say the odds are much more in his favor at Kansas though. Earlier this season, he struggled for the most part but ended sneaking into the top 10 and finishing 9th. He wasn't that good for the entire event, but he got the finish when it counted. HMS upstick in speed is the biggest reason for having faith in the young rookie driver. He should be at least view as a top 10 driver with clear upside to contend for the race win this weekend. Michigan is the most similar track to Kansas (in my opinion) and he almost won at both Michigan races this season, for what it is worth overall. I am not saying Michigan data translates to success, but it certainly worth mentioning though. There isn't much else to say with limited data at Kansas to look at. Outside of the standard leagues such as Yahoo Fantasy Racing, he could make a very strong under the radar pick. People still haven't jumped on board with him, I think this could be the week he cashes in. He had a top two cars in both 1.5 milers in the chase so far.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is having an average chase so far and I honestly don't see that changing. He just doesn't have the speed and yes I know I keep saying that every single week. And yeah, I am sure almost everyone is tired of hearing it. Like I said a couple weeks ago, until he proves me otherwise I will keep bring it up. He has 3 Top 10 finishes over past 5 races this season, dating back to the Richmond race. So he is getting some quality finishes of late. Not terrible, by any means top 10 finishes are good. Bad news? He more often than not running just outside of the top 10 during the chase, based on race performances. I think my biggest issue with Kurt Busch overall is his lack top 5 upside. Since winning at Pocono earlier this season, he has only posted one more top 5 finish and that was at New Hampshire. More concerning, he isn't even coming close to being a top 5 contender and I don't like that very much. When you are running back-end of the top 10 and you are a top driver, then you have zero fantasy value. Kurt Busch reminds me a lot of Jeff Gordon of 2015. A popular driver, who cannot contend for top 5 finishes. But just good enough to remain in consideration when it came to fantasy nascar. However, he is currently on a 3-race top 8 streak at Kansas though, including an 3rd place finish back in May.One of his strongest performances of the season.Headed into practice, I view him as top 10 driver.
42-Kyle Larson: Last week in my Fantasy Nascar Update, I said that Kyle Larson was going to be a great fantasy value with him being eliminated from the chase. As I expected, he was under the radar from most fantasy players. He should be a pretty good fantasy choice this weekend as well. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 18.6 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 91.8 driver rating. In his first three races at Kansas, he had finishes of 15th or better. Including his lone career top 10 finish of 2nd back in his second career at the track. He has finished off the lead lap in his past two races though. Earlier this season, he had stupid short-run speed. His car took off much better than anyone else, even better than Martin Truex Jr's car did at times. However, like usual his car would fade on the long run. He still had a bout 5th to 7th place car though. Of course, he was then involved in the Hamlin wreck late in the race. He got his car repaired and stayed on the lead lap, but then pancaked the wall due to a ill-handling car. I am going to assume it was because all of the damage he already had. After that, he pretty much was done for the night. He been strong on the 1.5 mile tracks in chase so far. Had an 7th place car at Chicagoland, before a penalty and had about an 6th or 7th place car at Charlotte as well. Even though, he made a case for being top 5 good at portion of the event. Headed into the weekend, I view Larson as top 10 drive with clear upside to be contend for a top 5 finish.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has dominated the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase, as he has led the most laps in both races. He should be considered one of the favorites for that reason alone overall. He been very strong at Kansas as well throughout his career. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 14.0 average finish with 14.6 average running position and 90.2 driver rating. He has 3 Top 9 finishes over his past 5 races. Including 2 Top 3 finishes over his past 3 races overall. In fact, over his past 15 races, he has posted 8 Top 3 finishes at this track. With 13 of 15 races ending inside the top 9. Since the start of the 2013 season, he has 5 finishes of 9th or better. Including 4 Top 6 finishes in the last 7 races. This is a great track for him overall and he should be considered one of the favorites this weekend. Not only because he has a great track record, but because how fast he has been over the past month of the season. Headed into practice, I view him as the favorite. We saw what Truex Jr did after he won in the first race of the chase. He went and dominated some races.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr was a disappointment at Charlotte last weekend, but he should be able to rebound at Kansas. He dominated this race back in May, but had a problem with the lugnuts and it cost him a easy win. He always been pretty good at Kansas, especially of late. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 12.6 average finish with 10.2 average running position and 104.4 driver rating. He has posted 4 straight races with them ending in 15th or better at Kansas. Overall, he has compiled 5 Top 4 finishes over the past 9 races. Altogether, he has posted 7 Top 15 finishes over that 9-race span. Truex Jr is a top 5 fantasy pick headed into practice in my opinion and should be on the short-list on everyone's radar to wins. I really like him this weekend, if the 78 team unload a fast car then the competition better watch out this weekend. Martin Truex Jr is just behind Johnson as the odds-on favorite in my eyes.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
