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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kevin Harvick - I really wished we would had seen final practice on Saturday, but up to that point, I think that Harvick is the man to beat. He was fast on Friday and topped the charts in the morning session. He was bad fast earlier this season at Auto Club (got tangled up with Kyle Larson) and then won at Kansas, not too long ago. I don't care how you look at it, I think you would have to consider the #4 car the odds-on favorite. I don't believe he will run away with the race, but I have a feeling the Fords will be tough to beat in the race. Several of them are starting up front and Harvick is obviously the one you will have to beat!
2. Kyle Busch - I consider Michigan as Kyle's worst track. Which use to never surprise me, as Michigan and Kansas are pretty comparable tracks. But in his last 18 races here, Kyle has just 3 top 5 finishes. And no top 5 finishes since the 2013 season. He had finishes of 7th and 10th here in 2017. While, he has turned his luck completely around at Kansas. Weird, but he could certainly start to turn things around this weekend though. He has a very fast car and one that is capable of going to victory lane, in my opinion. Will it happen? I don't know. It does not hurt that he is having one of his best seasons' of his career. And he has had some pretty amazing seasons at the cup level, too! There's red flags about Kyle, but honestly I don't think it really matters with him. He has proven some many times that he can go out and win a race without batting an eye.
3. Joey Logano - I love Logano this weekend. He qualified really well on Friday and has looked really good in both practice sessions. This is one of his best tracks and he is former winner here. I don't think anyone was surprise when he unloaded pretty fast this weekend. I would say it was expected out of him and the No.22 team. Personally, I see a top 5 run out of him. He may be more on the boarder line as a few drivers below him will have the potential to jump him in the race. Overall, I would say that Joey is in that 4th-7th place range. That is probably where he is most weekends, anyhow. I think the question is can he take a jump at that top 3? That is what I am waiting to happen out of the No.22 team. They are getting closer, I think.
4. Martin Truex Jr - I think Truex Jr will be fast in Sunday's race, but I also think that his pit crew will possibly cost him. Every single week, his pit crew does something will cost him positions. They may be the reasons why he does have more wins this seasons. I don't think Truex Jr could had won many of those races, but who knows what could had happen, if things ended differently. If I am picking Truex Jr this weekend, that is my only concern. There is nothing else that really jumps out at me. He has momentum on his side, he almost won here last August and top it all off, he has another quick car. Things are looking good for that 78 car. The ball is in the pit crew's court now.
5. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson has a tall task on hand for this weekend and
that is to win for the 4th straight time at Michigan. If he does
accomplish that feat, he will have do so from the 25th starting
position. This is something new for Kyle Larson, as he has been a great
qualifier in his career at Michigan. In his three wins here, he has
never started outside of the the top 12. He does has a fast car though.
He was amazing at Auto Club in March and had the car to beat at Kansas.
He may had won that race, if his team kept up with the track better.
Regardless, I am not too worried about the #42 car. He will be fine and
he will most likely contend for a top 5 finish. Don't let him starting
mid-pack scare you away!
6. Kurt Busch - Like his brother, Kurt also has had his share of terrible runs here at Michigan. However, Kurt also has had his share really strong runs. With the Busch brothers, it seems to be one or another. I am very interested to see which one is drawn for this weekend. I think the #41 will be tough to beat on Sunday. But I don't think he has a top 5 car entering the race. He will hang around for awhile, but I think the cream will rise to the top and the #41 is gonna ride around somewhere in the top 10 for most of the day. This season, the #41 car has a habit of finishing somewhere in the around 8th place. That is the trend that I am noticing. I say he finishes between 6th and 9th place on Sunday's afternoon!
7. Chase Elliott - I am not super high on Chase Elliott this weekend, but I am not super low, either. I don't think Elliott has the speed to get to victory lane, but I think it will be difficult for him to be outside of the top 8 or top 10 though. For the most part this season, it seems like the #9 car is good enough to be a contender for a top 10 position. That's about it. He never really turns it on and really no chevy driver, other than Kyle Larson, really can go a different level. I think that is what really is hurting the value of Chase Elliott's right now. In Fantasy Nascar, I believe that upside is what gives a driver that hype we are looking for. HMS does not have it right now. You will have to settle for plain and boring right now, if you are looking at Chase Elliott. He won't get up there and contend for a top 10 finish. But he will probably give you a solid top 10 finish though.
8. Brad Keselowski - I am never that high on Keselowski for some reason (I know I say all of the time and it is true) and this weekend is no difference. He does have back-to-back top 5 finishes in his last two races at Pocono and Michigan. However, I am just never that high on him. He has found success in the past at Michigan, so I am sure he can find his way into the top 5 again this weekend. I honestly cannot find a good reason to say to avoid him because everything looks good for him. He has 3 top 6 finishes in his last 4 races this season. So momentum - check. Former winner here - check. His crew chief loves to gamble - check. So yeah, there is no real reason to avoid him. Everything points to him having a solid day. However, there is just something inside of me that just doesn't like him all that much. Or maybe, as I stated multiple times, I am simply not that high on him
9. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has only really one great finish here at Michigan and that's kinda surprising when I was looking over the numbers. His 4th place finish in August 2016 still is his only top 10 finish of his career at Michigan. With his success at Kansas or other intermediate tracks, I would had figured that he would fair better at a place such as Michigan. And honestly, I am not too sure how well he will do this weekend at Michigan. He showed a lot of speed on Friday and then Saturday, we only had that one practice session. I kinda wish that he had made a longer run than he did. He did not appear on the best-ten lap average. So It would had been nice to see a longer run out him. Regardless, I think he will be in the top 10 on Sunday, but the longer runs will be the question though.
10. Erik Jones - Erik Jones has been amazing on the intermediate tracks this season, so I am gonna say that Jones will keep the good times rolling at Michigan. He has speed in his car, but I don't think he will go to victory lane. Last August, he was probably close as he has ever gotten. Of course, Kyle Larson came in there and stole it all away from him and his teammate. I don't think Jones is even close to being what he was last August. I also believe that has a lot do what how well other teams are running compared to last August. Jones will most likely contend for a finish in latter part of the top 10, but most weekends I think that where the #20 is likely stuck.
Just missed -
Clint Bowyer
Denny Hamlin
Aric Almirola
Jimmie Johnson
Jamie Mac
*****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
