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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Martin Truex Jr - Heading into the Nascar playoffs, I wasn't super high on Truex Jr. As 4 of his last 6 races, he has finished 14th or worse. And 5 of 6 races, he has finished 11th or worse. His lone top 10 finish was back at Watkins Glen, when he finished 2nd. But he has looked great this weekend. He didn't qualify as well as I would had liked, but he looks like the man to beat, in my opinion. He has been at top of the speed charts all weekend and seems to be one of the strongest cars on the long runs in race trim. In his last three races at Vegas, he has led the 2nd most laps than any other driver. He also supports 5.3 average finish and 2 top 5 finishes. In 2018, he has been one of the best drivers on the 1.5 mile tracks. He has finished in the top 5 in every race, but the Texas race. He wrecked in that event. In the most recent race on 1.5 mile tracks, he went to victory lane at Kentucky. There is a lot of things to love about Truex!
2. Kevin Harvick - Headed into the weekend, I thought Harvick was the driver to beat or at worst a top 3 driver. Nothing really has changed for me. He looked very good (as expected) since unloading on Friday. Like Truex Jr and Kyle Busch, I feel like Harvick is at his best on the 1.5 mile tracks. This is the No.4 team's bread and butter. In 6 of 7 races on 1.5 mile tracks in 2018, he has finished in the top 5. In 3 of those 6 races, he has finished in the top 2. Including 3 wins at Atlanta, Vegas and Kansas. I do feel like when he won at Vegas earlier this season that No.4 team was miles better than everyone else. It took awhile for other team to catch up. Now I feel like the competition is more balanced out. Does not mean he won't be strong though. The No.4 car will be one of the cars to beat on Sunday!
3. Kyle Busch - I think Kyle Busch is gonna be very like the two drivers up above and we know what he is capable of on any given weekend. He is a lock for a top 5 finish on Sunday, in my opinion. Like the two drivers above, I would include him in as one of the heavy favorites. I do believe that the winner will come from one of the big three. With all of that said, I think the drivers above are slightly better than him this weekend overall. However, I would never bet against Kyle Busch. If he is there at the end, you best believe that he is very capable of stealing the deal!
4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski is undoubtedly the hottest driver in the series right now! He won at Darlington and then won at Indy! Two of the biggest races of not only the season, but two of the biggest races in motorsports! I think making it three straight will be a lot tougher though. Everyone will be bringing their A game this weekend at Vegas and Keselowski didn't exactly dominate either events. However, he was in a prime position at the right time and more times than not that is key. I really like Keselowski as he has a great track record here at Vegas and will likely contend for a top 5 this weekend. With that said, I think the three drivers above are clearly ahead of him though.
5. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson has been one of the best drivers in the series at Vegas in the last two races here. In his last two races here, he has the 2nd-best average finish (2.5), 3rd-best average running position (5.0) and 3rd-best driver rating (115.0). The only two drivers that has performed better than Larson has been Martin Truex Jr and Brad Keselowski. And Keselowski and Larson are nearly identical though. This weekend, the No.42 car has looked very good overall. I would not say that he is the same class as the big three, but I think he can hang with them though. It seems like Larson has been just a step behind of the leader. He is never bad, but he isn't quite elite enough to win. I think how he performs on Sunday could indicate how he performs on this type of track in the Nascar playoffs.
6. Joey Logano - Logano and Penske always seem to run well here at Vegas. That has been a common theme for Joey since he has arrived with the No.22 team. In 6 races with the No.22 team (since 2013), he has not finished worse than 12th place. His worst finish in that span was back in 2013, his very first race with Penske. Since then, he has 5 straight races at Vegas where he finished in the top 10. In all 5 of those races, he has led. In those 5 races, he also holds the 3rd-best average running position (6.6) and 3rd-best driver rating (111.4). This weekend, I think he will be strong again. He will start from the front row with Erik Jones. I don't think he will stay up in the top 3 for the whole race, but he more than capable of running in the 4th-7th place range. That is probably the range where I expect him to finish in, too.
7. Erik Jones - Erik Jones will start on the pole here at Vegas and will look to add another win to his already impressive season. I personally don't think he will end up in victory lane, in fact I kinda view him more of a top 10 driver. He has looked good in practice, but we know how it goes in the race. This season on 1.5 mile tracks, he has been mainly a top 10 consistent threat. I would lean on that more than anything. When you look at all of the competitive cars, you can understand why, too. He's a solid fantasy pick, no doubt though. I love his consistency on this type of track. I have always preach about consistency, because consistency translates into value. We love predictability! I have Jones finishing somewhere from 5th and 9th place on Sunday's afternoon!
8. Ryan Blaney - I love me some Ryan Blaney this weekend. He is very good at places like Vegas and I consider this as one of his best tracks. His numbers are very impressive overall. In his last three races at Vegas, he has compiled 6.0 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 106.1 driver rating. Those are awesome numbers across the board! Blaney is a stud at Vegas and he has looked pretty solid in practice this weekend. It seems like that is a common theme for the Penske cars at Vegas. They always show up looking pretty good. Of the three, I probably have the least confidence in Ryan Blaney. But I also believe that Blaney has displayed the most speed of the three drivers, too.
9. Chase Elliott - Elliott had a strong end to the regular seson and is looking to keep the momentum going in the Nascar playoffs. I have been very tough on Elliott over the past couple season and that only because I know exactly what he is capable of. He finally broke through at WGI earlier this season and that was huge for him. Since then, he has ran pretty well. From New Hampshire to Darlington, he did not finish worse than 9th. After his win at WGI, he had finishes of 9th,3rd,5th and 15th. Not bad overall! Here at Vegas, he has had a lot of bad luck in his career so far and that is why his average finish is only 25.0. He did finish well in 2017, where he ended up finishing 3rd place. As for this weekend, I think he will end up being very good. Most likely a top 10 driver, if he does not get another DNF.
10. Kurt Busch - I will admit this final spot was pretty tough one to decide on. I did go with Kurt Busch in the end because I think he is one of the drivers with the most to prove. When we talk about the championship here in 2018, this is a driver that is never considered. Make no mistake that Kurt is still very capable of finishing in the top 5. He has been a solid bet week in and week out this season to finish in the top 10. If he does that in the first round of the playoffs, I think he moving on to the next round. As for this weekend, I think he will be where he usually is. Around 8th-10th place range, that has been the range where he seems to finish around the most.
Just missed -
Denny Hamlin
Clint Bowyer
Aric Almirola
Ryan Newman
Alex Bowman
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
