Welcome to Timerssports
Well folks, I have been away for about the past month and not doing any Fantasy Nascar content. So big stout out to my fellow writer, Garry Briggs, for keeping the fort down by himself. I am gonna try to be more committed to his blog than I have been this season, but some things are simply more important sometimes. Regardless, I am looking forward to these two races and then all of the off-season content that is planned over the next few months.
Onto ISM (aka Phoenix), I hope everyone enjoys the return of Fantasy Nascar Update and as always, crack up some beer and let's dig into it!
Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kevin Harvick - After having his advancement in the playoffs taken away, Kevin Harvick is now just 3 points to go to advance. Do I think he need to win in order to advance? Personally, I don't see him having to win. There is only one way that he does not advance and that if one of the drivers below him happens to win. And being frank, I don't think any of them will end up winning. It is possible, but I would think it will be difficult feat to pull off. This weekend, the No.4 car will start on the pole. He is very quick overall. This is the best possible track for Kevin to go to. He loves this place and has to be the odds-on favorite to win. He is my pick to win!
2. Kyle Busch - Rowdy has been one of the best drivers in the series this season and consistently has been regarded as a top 3 driver in the series. And really, that has been the common theme over the past several seasons. And at this track, he might be considered the best driver in the series over the past 5 races. In his last five races, he has compiled 2nd-best average finish (3.6), the most laps led (340), best driver rating (117.0) and best average running position (5.4). Great numbers and his numbers on similar track in 2018 are impressive as well. At Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond in 2018, his numbers are insanely good. In 4 races on shorter flat tracks, he has compiled the best average finish (1.8), most fast laps (163), best driver rating (122.0), third-best average running position (5.5) and 2nd-most laps led (288). He won at Richmond earlier in the playoff, after he led 92 laps and locked himself into the next round. Could we see a repeat performance? Maybe!
3. Joey Logano - Logano has been one of the most consistent drivers in the series here in the playoffs, but not enough people have noticed that. Over his past 5 races this season, he has not finished worse than 8th place and has compiled 4 top 5 finishes. Including finishes of 1st and 3rd in his last two races. In his last 11 races, dating back to Michigan (excluding The Roval), he has compiled a series-best 6.1 average. He also has posted the most top 5 finishes, top 10 finishes, 2nd-most laps led, series-best average running position and 2nd-best driver rating. In simple terms, Joey Logano has been the best driver in the series for nearly the last three months. His consistency during that period is second to none. Sure, he haven't dominated races but he has won the long-term battle. I would take consistency over inconsistency. Especially, if you are hovering around the top 5 week in and week out. He will start from inside the top 5 on Sunday at ISM!
4. Chase Elliott - Elliott is having a stellar season, it was not what I expected from him. He really turned it on here in 2nd half of the season and into the Nascar playoffs. His slower start to the season (compared to other contenders) really what did him in this round of the playoffs. He will have to win, in order to advance. He has a pretty good car this weekend, but I don't know if it one good enough to beat the competition. I say he's good enough to challenge for a spot in latter part of the top 5, but it is questionable if he is on par with guys like Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch though. But he has a great career record at ISM. In five career starts, he does not have any finishes than 12th place and that was in 2017. In that event, he had one of the cars to beat. He led 106 laps, before late restarts. In his last two races at ISM, he has finishes of 3rd and 2nd. In his last 5 races here, he has compiled 6.8 average finish (3rd-best in the series in that span), 6.2 average running position (tied for 2nd-best), 133 fast laps (3rd-most), 140 laps led (tied for 4th-most) and 110.8 driver rating (3rd-best). Something that stood out? His lowest career driver rating in a race here is 101.0. In the last five races here, that is the best-lowest driver rating in the series. 2nd-best lowest driver rating is 97.9 and 3rd-best lowest driver rating is 97.7. After that it really drops off! Want another thing to love about Chase Elliott? In 6 of his last 7 races this season, he has finished 7th or better. In those 6 races, he has posted 3 top 5 finishes. Including wins at Dover and Kansas. He will need to win on Sunday!
5. Martin Truex Jr - I am not super high on Truex Jr this weekend at ISM such say Kevin Harvick, but it is hard for to rank him below this ranking though. He is good enough to challenge for a top 5 and even a win. But my gut telling me that he won't win. I guess that thing that gives me the most confident in him is his numbers on shorter flats in 2018. In 4 races on similar tracks, he is right there with the best in the series. On similar tracks, he has compiled 6.5 average finish with 4.8 average running position (2nd-best in series), 370 laps led (most in the series), 115 fast laps (3rd-most) and 119.0 driver rating (3rd-best). Those are impressive numbers and they are nearly equal with both Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. He will have to start deeper int the field than both drivers, but there is no doubt that he has the speed to get up front. The question is will he avoid costly mistakes in the race? We will find out!
6. Brad Keselowski - Entering the Nascar playoffs, many people were expecting Keselowski to make a deep run into the playoffs. He was knocked out after the Kansas race though. After finishing 12th and 27th at Dover and Talladega, his fate was all but decided come the Kansas' race. He just didn't have the speed in the end to be up front during that event. Even if he did manage to stay close to the front, I don't think he had anything for the No.9, No.18 or even No.42 car. This season it seems like the Penske cars are never really great, but more times than not find a way to be consistent throughout races. And sometimes, they find themselves in really great position. Think about Keselowski and Logano's wins this season. They didn't have the cars to beat in any of those races. As for ISM this weekend, he is probably nothing more than a latter top 5 driver to top 10 driver. Keselowski haven't really had great luck at this place lately, however. As 4 of his last 5 races here has ended in 15th or worse. In his career, he has only posted one career finish in the top 5 during the fall race at this track. Not ideal!
7. Kyle Larson - To say that Kyle Larson has had a bad season would be an insult to him and his team. Larson has had a solid season, he just haven't won victory lane. There has been several races where Larson should had won. Races, he simply let slip pass him. Through 34 races, he has collected 11 top 5 finishes and 18 top 10 finishes. If he finishes in the top 5 in the last two races, he would pretty much almost equal his totals from 2017 - aside wins (But he will leave that for off-season content to discuss further.) He should had a couple wins this season. He had dominating performances at Bristol, Kansas, The Roval and Darlington. All races where he had a car capable of going to victory lane. They all ended the same, bitter disappointment. So it is not like Larson didn't have opportunities to win. As for this weekend, he has another fast racecar. I think it is safer to rank him in middle of the top 10, but his upside is undoubtedly in the top 5.
8. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch needs to win or finish four spots ahead of Kevin Harvick (if everyone else stays behind him in points.) He was looking strong in final practice and he had one of the best cars on the long run. His team told him that he was one of the strongest cars after lap 6. That bodes well for a place like Phoenix. He also have a great record here at this track. He is starting a little deeper in the field than I expected (not by much), but I think he will be easily a top 10 driver on Sunday. It does not hurt that his teammate is Kevin Harvick, he may know a thing or two about winning here.
9. Erik Jones - Jones was one of my dark horses entering the Nascar playoffs. He just had a crappy few races and that really did him in. In the first round, he had finishes of 40th, 11th and 30th. That will get you eliminated real quick. That exactly what happened. Since then? Only one finish worse than 8th and that was at Martinsville. This season in general, Jones has struggled on shorter flat tracks. His best finish of the four races was 9th, earlier this season at Phoenix. He has no finishes worse than 16th, but do you see the problem? Consistent, but just about average. His average finish among those 4 races is 12.5, but his average running position is 15.5. I am probably ranking him too high based on that, but he is looking really good in practice though. He has been near top of the speed charts all weekend. That why I have him slotted in at 9. I have liked what I seen from him all weekend! They pointed at his stout lap times on the NBC's boardcast, too. Another good sign, if you are have some Erik Jones' stock!
10. Aric Almirola - Aric will need to win to advance and he haven't really looked that good overall. Not bad by any means, but he isn't as good as he needs to be. I think he will be better in the race and move forward in the race. But I think he will finish between 8th and 12th when the checkers wave. You can also expect him to run in that range, too. Aric has been solid on these shorter flats this season. As he has compiled 8.5 average finish with 8.0 average running position. Exactly where I expect him to finish around. But he will need to do more than that, if he wants to advance to the championship race!
11. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer just not someone who has impressed me this weekend. He haven't been terrible, but like Aric, he needs to be better than he has been. The No.14 team at times this season has been awesome and at others, he haven't. As of late, things have not been going too well for him overall. In 4 of his last 5 races this season, he has finished 13th or worse. Including 3 finishes of 21st or worse. Right now, he has no momentum at all and the speed in his car just isn't quite there.
12. Ryan Blaney - I felt like entering the playoffs, Blaney had two really awesome shots at wins: Texas and Kansas. He was a top 5 contender at both tracks. Phoenix was probably one of the places where I have the least confident in him. In his first two career starts, he had finishes of 8th and 10th. Since? He has finishes of 23rd, 16th and 17th. Good news? His most recent finish (16th) was better than his previous two finishes. This lines up with his numbers on shorter flat tracks in 2018, too. As he has compiled 16.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 77.1 driver rating. You don't need to be well educated on these stats to know that these numbers aren't very good. He is not even a top 10 driver. This weekend, I have not been impressed with the no.12 car so far. I will give him benefit of the doubt though. Maybe he will surprise us?
***All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatsheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
