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#1-Kurt Busch: I really like Kurt at Phoenix! He has a very underrated record at this track! In the past 11 races at Phoenix, he has compiled 8 Top 11 finishes. He finished 11th and 7th in two races in 2019. In 3 of his last 4 races overall at Phoenix, he has posted finishes in the top 11. Including finishes of 11th, 7th and 10th. This is our first crack on the shorter flats, but I do like him a lot this weekend.
#2-Brad Keselowski: In a 8-race span from 2012 to 2015, Keselowski had 8 straight top 11 finishes. Including 7 Top 10 finishes in that eight race span. What has happened since then? Well his numbers has noticeably declined and so has his performance! From 2012 to 2015, his lowest driver rating in a single race was not below 109.0. In his last 8 races here? He has posted 6 races with a driver below 98.0 and 5 of those races were below 93.0. During that 8-race span, he has posted 5 finishes of 14th or worse. Keselowski never domainted this place in his career, but his numbers of late aren't setting the world on fire exactly!
#3-Austin Dillon: Dillon has 7 Top 20 finishes in his last 10 races at Phoenix and people thought he might be turning a corner back in fall 2018. In that event, he had best performance here at Phoenix and finished 8th. It was short-lived as Dillon posted finishes of 24th and 21st. In 2017 and 2018, he had 4 straight top 18 finishes. So what exactly happened in 2019 at Phoenix? He just wasn't very good in general on the shorter flats. He showed something early in the season with a 6th at Richmond. But after, he failed to finish inside of the top 20 any race on the shorter flats of New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix. Is there's a reason for his decline in production in 2019, compared to 2018? I guess there's no real proven connection but I say the speed from the RCR camp was a big factor in that. Could Ryan Newman leaving impact it? Certainly a strong possiablity. I don't really love Dillon this weekend honestly. Run well here and I might consider him later in the season on the shorter flat tracks, though.
#4-Kevin Harvick: Whenever we come to Phoenix, they always talk about how awesome Harvick is and some consider this as his best track. From 2012 to 2016, I would have to agree. In the modern era, he can put in a special category of dominant (in my opinion) at one track. From 2012 to 2016 (9 races), he posted 8 Top 2 finishes. Including 6 wins! From November 2013 to March 2015, he wheeled off 4 straight wins. From November 2013 to March 2016, he led at least 139 laps in every race. So how has he looked since? Well he has had 7 races here and posted 6 top 6 finishes. However, he had failed to lead lap in 5 of those 7 races and only has 1 top 3 finishes. But like I mentioned before, he has 6 Top 6 finishes during that 7-race span. So he still very good, he is just not as dominant as before. Probably close to a top 5 lock as it will get though!
#9-Chase Elliott: Elliott is really good here at Phoenix, but he has cooled off in the finishes department of late. In his first 5 starts, he had no finishes worse than 12th and had two top 5 finishes in November 2017 and March 2018. In March 2017, he led a career-high 106 laps on his way to 12th place finish. Of course, he followed that up with back to back top 3 finishes. So what has happened since then? He has finishes of 14th, 23rd and 39th. In last fall's event, he had some really bad luck and finished 39th. During that entire playoff run, he some terrible luck honestly. So I will give him a pass on that. He was strong in the first and second stages of that race. He had a 91.3 driver rating, despite finishing dead last. Folks, that is a strong indication that he was a elite performer for that event. And he was exactly that.
#10-Aric Almirola: Aric has been really good at Phoenix, prior to last fall's race. In the previous 4 races (dating back to his final start with RPM), he has finished 9th or better. In last spring's race, he finished 4th and led 26 laps on his way to his second straight top 5 finish at this track. I think Aric is gonna have a huge bounce back season and I feel like he is very underrated at these shorter flat tracks like Phoenix.
#11-Denny Hamlin: Old Phoenix or new Phoenix, Hamlin has been pretty good here overall I would say. Especially over his last 4 races at this track! As he has posted 3 top 5 finishes in his last 4 races. Including a win at this track in last fall's race. He led 143 laps on his way to victory lane! In last spring's race, he was very good and finished in the 5th position when the checkers wave. He was much better in last fall's race, but he has posted 4 straight top 10 finishes in the spring's races. Including 3 top 5 finishes in the last 4 spring races!
#12-Ryan Blaney: Blaney has been up and down in his career here at Phoenix, but he put together of strong performs in 2019 and finished 3rd in both races. He was also very strong in November 2018's race, but fnished 34th in that event. He had a mechnical issue that forced him to exit the event's early. If not, I bet he would had finish somewhere in top 5 or at worst somewhere in the top 10. I think there's better tracks out there for Blaney, but he has shown great potential at Phoenix lately.
#14-Clint Bowyer: Folks, I am never super high on Clint Bowyer and that will not change this weekend! He is decent here at Phoenix lately, but I wouldn't count for anything beyon a high-single digit finish or low-end teen finish! So somewhere 8th and 14th is most likely his finish/performance range. Exactly what has finishes has most been here. In his last 6 races here, he has finished 4 times between 8th and 13th. His other two finishes are 6th and 35th.
#18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch is good as they come here at Phoenix! He has been pretty incredible at this track! In 8 of his last 9 races here, he has compiled 8 top 4 finishes. He has been even better over just the past two seasons here! In his last 4 races at this track, he has either finished 1st or 2nd in every single race. He has gone to victory lane in 2 of his last 3 races at this racetrack! He had his worst race last fall since 2017 here guys! And most people would kill to have a race like he did last fall! He started 1st, finished 2nd, led 69 laps and held impressive 125.6 driver rating. Those are ''down'' numbers compared to his previous three races here. Overall in 5 of his last 6 races here, he has led at least 69 laps. In 4 of those 6 races, he has led at least 113 laps!
#19-Martin Truex Jr: I feel like sometimes that these shorter flats are a weak spot for Martin Truex Jr. Dont get me wrong, he has some impressive showing on similar tracks. But he also has left some to be desire as well! At Phoenix, he has been good I suppose. In his last 6 races here, he has compiled 5 finishes of 11th or better. In 4 of his last 5 races here, he has finished in the top 6! That's very good! He also only has led 11 laps in that 6-race span, though. Now you don't need to lead laps to to be considered a strong fantasy pick! However, the elite fantasy picks with winning upside will usually have that potential. I am not saying he cannot, but he really hasn't proven himself even here at Phoenix. With that said, he's a championship calbier driver and will always have a great chance to go to victory lane. I wouldn't bet against him, but I do believe there's better tracks out there for him!
#20-Erik Jones: Jones hasn't been terrible at these shorter flat tracks, but he also a lot safer on the intermediate tracks, though. He wasn't very good overall. He finished 29th at the first Phoenix's race, finished 14th at Richmond, 3rd at New Hampshire, 38th at Richmond and then 7th at Phoenix. Obviously, some of those bad finishes were simply just bad luck. But if you look at his career numbers at these shorter flat tracks, then you see why he can be a bit inconsistent. Phoenix is his 9th-best track, New Hampshire is his 14th-best track and Richmond is his 18th-best track in term of average finish position. Now obviously, you have to dig deeper than looking at average finish as that is a fool's game. But you do get my point I am trying to make. He certainly can deliver top 10 finishes on this type of track, but he also can lay an egg!
#22-Joey Logano: Joey was really good in his first 7 starts with Penske and the #22 team! He posted 6 top 10 finishes and 3 Top 5 finishes, including a race win in 2016. However, his numbers went south since that race win in 2016! Over his last 6 races, he hasn't had a lot to love here at Phoenix! He has finished 12th or better in 3 of his last 5 races here. Problem is? His best finish is 9th and has only led twice during those 6 races. Good news? He led 93 laps in last fall's race, before eventually finishing 9th! So there's some reason to believe that he is coming back around at this place.
#24-William Byron: I am higher on Byron on the intermediate tracks than I am on the shorter flat tracks like this weekend at Phoenix! In 2018, Byron had a pair of top 12 finishes. Problem? He took a step back in 2019 and performed worse, while finishing 17th and 24th. He wasn't horrible in 2019 on these shorter flat tracks, but he also wasn't great. He had no finishes better than 12th, but he also didn't have any DNFs. He needs to make som progress here in 2020 on this type of track honestly. He showed some promise in 2018 during his rookie season, but really took a step back in 2019. I wouldn't recommend him this weekend, but I woud keep an eye on him and watch him for future races on this type of track!
#42-Kyle Larson: Larson was a very interesting driver on shorter flats in 2019! He had 3 finishes in the top 6 and 2 finishes outside of the top 30! He did have finishes of 4th and 6th here at Phoenix though. Larson actually had gotten some solid finishes here at Phoenix lately. In his last 7 races, he has compiled 5 finishes of 6th or better! In his first 5 starts at this track, he had just one top 10 finish! Larson still not a elite driver here, but he just been really consistent here over the past couple seasons. He not leading laps or challenging for the win, but just doing what he suppose to and finishing in or close to the top 5. I am not in love with him here at Phoenix, but I certainly don't hate him. I guess he's a just not the sexy pick at Phoenix, but a very effective one!
#48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson was pretty consistent between the 8th and 14th position in 2019 on these shorter flats! In 4 of 5 races, he finished in that 8th and 14th finishing posiiton. He finished 30th at New Hampshire. He was consistent here at Phoenix in 2019, as he compiled finishes of 8th and 14th. He used to a machine here, though. From 2005 to 2011 (12 races), he posted 12 straight top 10 finishes. Including 4 wins between 2007 and 2009 (5 races). Those days are long gone, but the track has changed a ton since then, too. One of the biggest reasons for Johnson decline in production, too. His age has also affected that, in my opinion. Johnson could challenge for a top 10, but I would say a low-teen outcome is most realistic with upside being a top 10 finish!
#88-Alex Bowman: Back in 2016, Bowman was filling in for Dale Jr and he had a special performance in the fall's event here. He started on the pole and led 194 laps on his way to 6th place finish. Of course, he was dumped late in the event and that probably cost him a shot at a top 3 finish (in my opinion). A couple seaosns later, he returned to the track (as full-time driver) and honestly he just not posting the same results. In his last 4 races, he has just posted 1 top 20 finish and that was a 13th place finish back in March 2018. Since then? He has finishes of 30th, 35th and 23rd. Not good at all! He wasn't very good on the shorter flats in 2019, either. He compiled 4 finishes of 17th or worse in 5 races. His best finish in 2019 on a shorter flat track was a 14th place finish at New Hampshire.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
