Saturday, December 06, 2014

2015 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Casey Mears

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Casey Mears

Car #: 13

Make: Chevy

Aka: MearsGang

Season Debut: 2003

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career starts: 416

# of Career Poles: 4

# of Career Wins: 1

# of Career Top 5s: 13

# of Career Top 10s: 50

# of Career DNFs: 55

# of Career laps led: 473

Career Average Finish: 23.4

Career Average Start: 24.1

# of 2014 Wins: 0

# of 2014 starts: 36

# of 2014 Top 5s: 1

# of 2014 Top 10s: 3

# of 2014 Poles: 0

# of 2014 DNFs: 1

# of 2014 Laps led: 4

2014 Average Finish: 22.3

2014 Average Start: 25.5

2014 Reap: Mears quietly had a nice , but solid season in 2014. Only scored 3 Top 10s , but that more then he have had in the previous 4 seasons in the Sprint Cup Series. Mears had an 22.4 average finish in 36 races. Which was his best average finish since driving the 07 car in 2009 (19.8 average finish.) Mears also scored one top 5 (Daytona) , that was his first top 5 since 2008 with Hendrick MotorSports in the 5 car. In 2014 , Mears only had 1 DNF in 36 starts. Pretty good overall year for Mears.

Strong tracks: Watkins Glenn , Sonoma and Daytona.

Weak tracks: Indy , Darlington and New Hampshire.

Additional info on Mears: Every year since joining the 13 team. Mears have improved his average finish. Most people believe Mears is useless because he is in a underfunded ride. That's a big misunderstanding! Mears is a fantastic option at both Talladega & Daytona. Typically stays out of trouble there. In 2014 his worst finish was 14th (first Dega). Also a great value at road courses. Pretty underrated there as well.

Yahoo Grouping Prediction: B Grouping Tier

Overall Value Prediction: Limited

2015 Fantasy Outlook: Honestly I am not sure what to expect exactly. Mears last season was pretty reliable because he finished 35 of 36 races. Not something he been able to do a lot in past seasons. Realistically Mears is a pretty limited option in Yahoo Fantasy Racing. I could see myself using him few times though. Maybe more , just depends on how things turn out. Would love to see Mears score more Top 10s in 2014 , but probably gonna be difficult. Usually Mears starts the season off very well. Then decline in productive. Outside of road courses & plate tracks , Mears is hard to count on.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

Friday, December 05, 2014

2015 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Danica Patrick

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Danica Patrick

Car #: 10

Make: Chevy

Aka: Princess , DP

Season Debut: 2013 (First Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career starts: 82

# of Career Poles: 1

# of Career Wins: 0

# of Career Top 5s: 0

# of Career Top 10s: 4

# of Career DNFs: 11

# of Career laps led: 20

Career Average Finish: 25.3

Career Average Start: 27.4

# of 2014 Wins: 0

# of 2014 Top 5s: 0

# of 2014 Top 10s: 3

# of 2014 Poles: 0

# of 2014 DNFs: 4

# of 2014 Laps led: 15

2014 Average Finish: 23.6

2014 Average Start: 22.3

2014 Reap: Danica showed solid improvement from year 1 to year 2. In 2014 , she improved her # Of Top 10 , Top 15 and Top 20. Also improved her average finish and start. While decreasing the rate of DNFs and non-led lap finishes.

Strong tracks: Michigan and Atlanta

Weak tracks: Martinsville and Pocono

Additional info on Danica: Most people think Danica is just a money maker for SHR. Yes her average performances haven't been stellar. But remember most of the competitors have been racing for 15 years in stock. Danica about 5. She slowly grasping knowledge. Each year she have improved. 2015 she needs to take that next step though.

Yahoo Grouping Prediction: B Grouping Tier

Overall Value Prediction: Serviceable option at larger racetracks

2015 Fantasy Outlook: I expect Danica to continue to improve , but honestly think she will be a limited option in Yahoo Fantasy Racing. Her price may be too much in salary cap formats (like Fantasy Live.) There few tracks she will be an asset like Daytona and Talladega. Also believe she will be an sneaky option at Intermediate tracks. Outside of Martinsville , her best performances have came at fast and large racetracks. I fully expect that trend to continue.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2015 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Denny Hamlin

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Denny Hamlin

Car #: 11

Make: Toyota

Aka: Hammy , DH

Season Debut: 2006

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career starts: 326

# of Career Poles: 19

# of Career Wins: 24

# of Career Top 5s: 91

# of Career Top 10s: 154

# of Career DNFs: 27

# of Career laps led: 7069

Career Average Finish: 14.6

Career Average Start: 14.2

# of 2014 Wins: 1

# of 2014 Top 5s: 7

# of 2014 Top 10s: 18

# of 2014 Poles: 3

# of 2014 DNFs: 2

# of 2014 Laps led: 363

2014 Average Finish: 14.3

2014 Average Start: 14.5

2014 Reap: Hamlin was inconsistent at times. Especially early on. As the season went on , I felt like Hamlin found his groove right after his crew chief was suspended. Hamlin had a few bad races in the chase. But found consistency when it counted most. People don't give Hamlin enough credit. Toyota was down on power all year. For him to be competitive as he was , it was impressive.

Strong tracks: Martsinville , Darlington , Richmond and New Hampshire

Weak tracks: Sonoma and Watkins Glenn

Additional info on Hamlin: A lot of people are high on Hamlin heading into 2015. But honestly I am not sold. Not because I don't believe Hamlin cannot have a fantastic season. But how fast Toyota is will likely be a big outcome on the success of JGR from an season pov. Expect Hamlin best performances to be on the flats.

Yahoo Grouping Prediction: A Grouping Tier

Overall Value Prediction: Stable Option

2015 Fantasy Outlook: Hamlin will be solid at times in 2015 , but not sure if he's an top notch option. Especially if Toyota ponies doesn't significantly improves. Kinda wish Hamlin would have dipped off (finishe wise) towards end of the season in 2014. Because he pretty useless in Yahoo Fantasy Racing. As the A grouping tieris pretty stacked with firepower. Not overall confident , JGR cars will be able to keep pace. Especially since this tier is filled with Hendrick power. I expect 1win , 8 Top 5s , 17 Top 10s , and 25 Top 20s from Hamlin in 2015.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2015 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Sam Hornish Jr

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Sam Hornish Jr

Car #: 9

Make: Ford

Aka: SHJr

Season Debut: 2008 (34 races)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career starts: 131

# of Career Poles: 0

# of Career Wins: 0

# of Career Top 5s: 3

# of Career Top 10s: 9

# of Career DNFs: 20

# of Career laps led: 71

Career Average Finish: 25.3

Career Average Start: 22.7

# of 2014 Wins: 0

# of 2014 Top 5s: 0

# of 2014 Top 10s: 0

# of 2014 Poles: 0

# of 2014 DNFs: 0

# of 2014 Laps led: 0

2014 Average Finish: 17.0

2014 Average Start: 13.0

2014 Recap: Hornish only made one start in place for Hamlin with JGR. He started 13th and finish 17th. Hornish was racing on the NNS side in the 54 car in 2014 mainly. Be interesting to see how he does with RPM.

Strong tracks: Richmond and Watkins Glenn

Weak tracks: Bristol , Kansas and Phoenix.

Additional info on Sam Hornish Jr: Now if you have played fantasy nascar since 2007. You probably aren't buying into Hornish for 2015. Big reason is because he's inconsistent and not exactly super talented. At times , Hornish should show flashes of potential. But he will also wreck out a lot too. Only 9 Top 10s in 131 starts. This is in equality or better  equipment to RPM. He's will finish 17th - 25th a lot. Count on that.

Yahoo Grouping Prediction: C Grouping Tier

Overall Value Prediction: Overvalued/ Inconsistent

2015 Fantasy Outlook: Hard saying what Hornish will be. Honestly I expect Hornish to show flashes of brilliances. But more often then not , he will likely be running in the upper teens or twenties. I would describe Hornish as the American vision of Marcos Ambrose. Realistically I DON'T think Hornish will be much better then Ambrose was. RPM never been a powerhouse afterall. In 2015 , I expect 1 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , 9 Top 15s , 18 Top 20s

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2015 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Michael Annett

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Michael Annett

Car #: 7

Make: Ford

Aka: Annetie

Season Debut: 2014

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career starts: 36

# of Career Poles: 0

# of Career Wins: 0

# of Career Top 5s: 0

# of Career Top 10s: 0

# of Career DNFs: 6

# of Career laps led: 5

Career Average Finish: 33.7

Career Average Start: 29.3

# of 2014 Wins: 0

# of 2014 Top 5s: 0

# of 2014 Top 10s: 0

# of 2014 Poles: 0

# of 2014 DNFs: 6

# of 2014 Laps led: 5

2014 Average Finish: 33.7

2014 Average Start: 29.3

2014 Recap: Annett didn't do anything special in 2014. Most of the time , just quietly had a nice season. Never was a factor for ROY. But I was impressed at times. Especially since the level equipment he's in is complete crap. Surprisingly had his best races at the 2 & 2.5 mile venues (Pocono, Auto Club , Michigan, Indy, Talladega).

Strong tracks: Pocono , Kentucky and ACS.

Weak tracks: Dover and Richmond

Additional info on Michael Annett: I don't think Annett is a overly useful driver. But I think he's an serviceable option when used properly in certain formats. His best days will likely come at an larger track. How deep the talent pool is in Yahoo Fantasy Racing will have a huge impact on his value.

Yahoo Grouping Prediction: C Grouping Tier

Overall Value Prediction: Underrated/ Sneaky Option

2015 Fantasy Outlook: I don't expect a lot from Annett in allocation leagues. Mainly because the results he delivers aren't effective enough to be considered fantasy relevant in most formats. Salary cap leagues is where Annett usually can be a nice bargain or should be. I expect similar results from 2014 , but I think Annett overall potential could significant improve. I say he doubles the number of Top 20s from 2014.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

Thursday, December 04, 2014

Fantasy Football Starts/Sits (WK14)

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***Scoring format: CBS Sports

Quarterbacks -

Starts:

Tony Romo- Yes I said start Romo in week 13 (3 total points outcome), but I learned over the years Romo isn't someone who will consistency disappoint. Romo may have a poor game here & there , but he's someone you can count on more often then not. The Bears have been nightmarish against the pass. As Chicago have greatly struggled on defense since the firing on Lovie Smith after 2012 season. The Bears have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game (24.5) vs Quarterbacks. Including 2.2 Touchdowns and 285.5 yards per game.

Russell Wilson- To me Russell is a solid QB. Usually solid Quarterbacks like Wilson can take advantage of good matchups. Like the one in week 13 vs Philly. The Eagles have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game (22.8) vs Quarterbacks. They also have allowed 284.8 yards (4th-most) , 2.0 Touchdowns (T-4Th most) and 17 rushing yards (6th most) per game to Quarterbacks.

Ryan Tannehill- Tannehill have been quietly having an awesome season! Yet very few have actually noticed. Well Mr. Tannehill , I salute you. In all seriousness , RT have a nice matchup against Baltimore. The Ravens are significantly better against the run then the pass. They are one of the best in the leagues at stuffing runners. But they are ranked 6th against the pass in 2014 in fantasy points per game (22.1) vs QBs. They also have allowed the most passing yards this season with 3518 or 293 yards per game.

Sits:

Mark Sanchez - Yes we all love seeing  Mark Sanchez light up the Boys defense in week 13. But party over , the Seahawks in town. They are literally like the official party crashers of the NFL. Never should start a Quarterback vs this defensive unit. Almost certain to end ugly. As the Seahawks have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game (14.5) vs Quarterbacks. They are allowing like 207 yards & roughly 1 TD per game.

Joe Flacco- Oh Flacco..Flacco! Flacco Owners by now know his overall numbers usually are better at home then on the road. In week 14 , JF on the road against the tough & underrated  Dolphins pass defense. The Dolphins have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game (15.8) vs Quarterbacks. Sit him!

Big Ben- Big Ben have cooled off in recent weeks since his back-to-back 6 Touchdowns. Anyhow in week 14 , the Steelers will face divisional foe Cincy. I expect a low scoring affair among the AFC North power house forces. Also Cincy have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points per game (15.6) vs Quarterbacks. There more suitable options to go with in week 14. Sit him!

Running Backs -

Starts:

Frank Gore- There probably more consistent options then Gore , but cannot say anyone have a more favorable matchup in week 14. The Raiders are fantasy gold in pretty every defensive category. They have allowed the most fantasy points per game (24.1) vs running backs. I don't think I could will myself to sit Gore. The matchup is WAY to good.

Eddie Lacy- Remember when everyone was saying Lacy was the biggest fantasy bust of 2014 in the first 5 games? How idiotic that seems now. Of course like 2013 , Lacy have became one of the top league's rushers. The Falcons have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game (22.7) vs running backs. Lacy have effectively became an extra receiver for Aaron Rodgers in certain situations. Which is addition value to Lacy. Value which isn't really needed. In simpler terms , an added bonus.

Rashad Jennings- If Jennings plays in week 14, he should be started vs an terrible Tennessee defense. Who been slaughtered in recent weeks. Jennings isn't a star , but he's can get the job done. The Titans have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game (23.4) vs running backs. Jennings get added value with catching the ball out of the backfield. Jennings have 26 catches in 8 games this season. Titans have allowed 283 yards & 3 TDs to running backs though the air.

Sits:

Lamar Miller- Miller been a pretty average running backs in recent weeks. With not reaching 100 yards or any Touchdowns in his past 5 games. Miller also have had a significant tough schedule lately as well. The Ravens have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game (12.3) vs running backs. I expect roughly 16 carries for 80 yards from Miller in a close competitive game.

Doug Martin- DMart is alive! As Martin had his best game of 2014 for 58 yards & 1 TD in week 13. Which probably makes him look worse then he already have been. Still wouldn't trust him to deliver a reliable score in week 14 vs Lions who have been stout vs the run. Lions have allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points per game (14.8) vs running backs. There more reliable options out there. Sit him!

Alfred Morris- Not saying Morris cannot be a good option in week 14 , but its seems unlikely. Two big reasons: A) Washington is a mess. B) The Rams are pretty good at this defense thing. This unit was terrible to start the year. But over recent weeks , they are looking like the team we all thought they could be. Morris screwed up a good matchup vs Indy in week 13. Hard to trust him vs an unfavorable situation. The Rams have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game (15.2) vs running backs.

Wide Receivers-

Starts:

Kelvin Benjamin- Benjamin is every bit of his hype and then some. This guy is the real deal! I been impressive by him. His rookie season success should continue against the New Orleans Saints! The Saints have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game (26.1) vs Wide Outs. And Kelvin is like the only fantasy relevant option on Carolina.

Golden Tate- Tate is having a career season with Detroit. And nothing Tampa Bay does likely changes that. The Bucs been very fantasy friendly in 2014 to Wide Outs. As they have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game (25.4) vs Wide Outs. Tate ranked 12 among all Wide Outs with 11.2 fantasy points per game. He been good all season long. Expect it to continue vs Tampa.

Davante Adams- Davante Who? Davante Adams another rookie. Adams in my opinion is the most underrated player at his position in this rookie class. Adams in a deep WR core in Green Bay. Compared to other rookie wideouts! I potentially think Adams could  have a great game vs Falcons. Atlanta attention will be on Nelson and Cobb mainly. The Falcons have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game (25.2) vs wideouts.

Sits:

Martavis Bryant- This day and age , trends most of the time means absolutely nothing. With that being said , most trends aren't consistent enough to be relevant. Bryant is starting to have a trend of his own develop. In back-to-back games , he failed to have 50 yards. 2014 stats suggests it will continue vs Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed the 2nd fewest points per game (16.3) vs WideOuts.

Vincent Jackson- Since arriving to Tampa , VJax big issue been consistency. Not his fault. He usually good for 50-60 yards , but his upside is very limited due to lack of touchdowns. The "Number 2" Receiver  Mike Evans have scored more times this year then VJax have in the past two seasons. Do I really have say anymore?

James Jones - Being the 3rd Wide out in the big pound wasn't good enough for James Jones! Now he's in a terrible offense with very little upside. Yet surprising over 50% of ESPN still own him. Just not enough consistency for Jones to be highly relevant. The 49ers have allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points per game (20.8) vs Wide Outs.

Tight Ends -

Starts:

Jason Witten- Witten been solid in recent weeks. Its should continue vs the Bears who have been terrible against tight ends. The Bears have allowed the most fantasy points per game (11.2) vs Tight Ends. Start him and enjoy the points.

Kyle Rudolph- The talented tight end out of Notre Dame only will make his 6th start of 2014 due to injuries. When he played , he have been effective. Averaging 10 yards a catch. The Jets love giving out fantasy points to Tight Ends. The Jets have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game (11.0) vs Tight Ends.

Sits:

Larry Donnell- Its playoff time in fantasy football , Donnell just isn't gonna cut it. Especially after his 40 yards performance vs Jacksonville. Larry have a nice matchup , but not the upside in NY offense. Donnell is boom or bust.

Vernon Davis- VDavis have 210 yards on the season. Never thought I would see the season where that would happen. Nevertheless he is averaging 3.3 fantasy points per game. Not gonna cut it in fantasy football during the playoffs. Also has a middle of the road matchup.

My piece of advice for underdogs in their playoffs matchup this week would be this: Throw the kitchen sink at your lineup. You're the underdog already. Why not try to pull off a hail mary? If I knew I was going lose. Then I would want to go in blazing glory. You would be shocked on how many times it has worked.

For a better overview of who to start , check out Wiliam Frang Rankings. Or ask us on Twitter who you should start.

**All stats from FFToday

Links to previous Starts/Sits -

Starts/Sit - Week 1

Start/Sits - Week 2

Starts/Sits - Week 3

Starts/Sits - Week 4

Starts/Sits - Week 5

Starts/Sits - Week 6

Starts/Sits - Week 7

Starts/Sits - Week 8

Starts/Sits- Week 9

Starts/Sits- Week 10

Starts/Sits - Week 11

Starts/Sits - Week 12

Starts/Sits - Week 13

Twitter - Matt Aleza

2015 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Trevor Bayne

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Trevor Bayne

Car #: 6

Make: Ford

Aka: TBayne , TB

Season Debut: 2015

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career starts: 58

# of Career Poles: 0

# of Career Wins: 1

# of Career Top 5s: 1

# of Career Top 10s: 3

# of Career DNFs: 12

# of Career laps led: 28

Career Average Finish: 20.5

Career Average Start: 25.9

# of 2014 Wins: 0

# of 2014 Top 5s: 0

# of 2014 Top 10s: 0

# of 2014 Poles: 0

# of 2014 DNFs: 5

# of 2014 Laps led: 8

2014 Average Finish: 32.2

2014 Average Start: 21.3

2014 Recap: Ugly year for Bayne. Best finish was 19th (twice). Interesting that he finished 20th at Las Vegas and Charlotte. Then followed both those races up with 19th place finishes (Texas & Michigan). Outside those 4 races , he only had 3 other races that he completed. Bayne gonna have to learn to finish races in the future. Note Bayne only started 12 races for the wood brothers in 2014.

Strong tracks: Las Vegas , Charlotte and Chicago.

Weak tracks: Talladega  and Daytona.

Additional info on Trevor Bayne: Most people don't realize the #21 car is basically an extra Roush car (as Woods Brother are allianced with RFR.) Overall his MO shows Bayne biggest issue is inconsistency. Even on the high speed intermediate racetracks. Which I expect him to excell at. I don't expect Bayne to be anything special though. Look at Ricky Stenhouse Jr rookie campaign. Expect similar results in Bayne.

Yahoo Grouping Prediction: C Grouping Tier

Overall Value Prediction: Inconsistency

2015 Fantasy Outlook: I expect Roush to better in 2015. But Bayne will likely be at best an top 20 option most weeks. I expect 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks to be his strong suit. Bayne is overhyped in my opinion. I don't think he gonna do much of anything. Unless Roush significantly improves. Don't forget Bayne wasn't nothing special in NNS or his limited cup schedule. 0 Wins , 1 Top 5 , 3 Top 10s , 12 Top 20s seems about right for Bayne in 2015

Twitter - @JeffNathans