2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Paul Menard

Welcome to Timerssports

2015 Paul Menard Profile

If you have played fantasy nascar awhile , then there probably a good chance that Paul Menard have burned you. If you have recently started to play fantasy nascar , don't worry. The Nard dog will find you. Menard usually find bad luck at the worst times. More specifically , he have a bad habit of turning a good car into a poor finish.

On the flip side , Menard is known to take a crappy car and score a respectable top 10 from time to time. To me Menard is unpredictable and most seasons a streaky driver. Also Menard have a bad habit of finishing well in the first 12 races before bottoming out. Usually his best days will be on Intermediate racetracks.

Intermediate racetracks will likely be the places he have any kind of fantasy relevancy. Las Vegas stands out in the past few seasons as his best high-speed Intermediate racetrack. Had a car capable of winning last season. Real bullet on the long run in that race. Kansas probably his second best track. 10.75 average finish and 3 Top 10s in previous four races. 90.8 Driver rating not too shabby either.

Menard also shown promise on larger Intermediate tracks. Michigan stands out as his best racetrack over the past 2 seasons. In past 4 races , Menard have 3 Top 5s and 6.5 average finish. 99.5 driver rating suggests he didn't luck into them. Auto Club also isn't a bad place for Menard. He have an 8.5 average finish and 2 Top 10s in past two races.

Short tracks will be questionable in 2015. Past few seasons , he haven't been terrible. Unfortunately he haven't been great either. Bristol probably Menard best short track. In the past 4 races , Menard have an 11.2 average finish and 3 Top 10s. Menard doesn't get enough credit at Bristol. When we go to Bristol his name rarely comes up. Richmond and Martinsville pretty identical least stats wise. I believe Menard pretty underrated at both venues. Expect teen-like results at both tracks.

On Flats some of worse results will be recorded. But he will have his opportunies to shine, too. His best shorter flat track probably would be New Hampshire. He's have an 18.2 average finish in his past 4 races. 73.9 driver rating backs it up. Phoenix is his second best flat. His average finish is an 20.5 over his past 4 races. His best result in that span was 16th.

Larger Flats been more kind however. Since winning at Indy in 2011 , Menard have actually found decent success. 4 Of his 7 other races at Indy have resulted in 20th or better. Unfortunately he also have finishes of 34th , 41st and 29th. In fact , before last season dust up with Juan Pablo Montoya. He had finish of 14th , 1st , 14th and 12th from 2010 - 2013 races at IMS.

When we talk underrated at Pocono , I think automatically of Paul Menard. The average  Nascar fan would say Menard terrible at Pocono judging by initial stats. But that inaccurate. From June 2010 to August 2012 , Menard had finishes of 16,13,14,10,9 and 11. Which is an 12.1 average finish.

Previous four races , Menard have an average finish of 30.2 with finishes of 33,26,30 and 32. All four finishes have an logically explanation though. June 2013 Menard had a flat on the final lap while running competitively running in the low teens. August 2013 , he was involved in a wreck. June 2014 Menard was running about 10th before experiencing an mechanically issue late in the event. August 2014 another wreck. If anything bad luck.

Road courses likely won't be in Menard strengths. But I am starting to see a positive trend at Sonoma. In 4 career races with RCR , Menard have an 14.0 average finish. Including finishes of 5th and 14th last two seasons. Not great , but not terrible either. Watkins Glenn however been at best interesting. Since joining RCR , Menard have an 23.2 average finish. Looking at the numbers , he have had two terrible results of 32nd (twice). Other two races been respectable with 17th and 12th. Again not terrible. You could do a lot worse.

Restrictor Plate Tracks will mostly be hit or miss. Past two seasons , Menard have been so-and-so. He had 1 Top 5 in 2013 and other three finishes of 43,26 and 21. Similar in 2014 , only 1 Top 10. Other three races he had finishes of 36,16 and 32. I expect a similar outcome in 2015.

Menard most weeks won't deliver an top notch finish , but he definitely have plenty of unseen (or overlooked) fantasy value. The key with Menard is using him at the right time. Menard will likely have the most value in the first 12 races. Beyond that you're playing with house money. Never know when the house will cash in. Intermediate tracks are the preferred tracks to use him at. His worse days will come on Restrictor Plate Tracks of Daytona and Talladega.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Aric Alimrola

Welcome to Timerssports

2015 Aric Alimrola Profile

Alimrola have more then a few years under his belt at NSCS level , but yet he haven't had that breakout season with RPM. Last season win at Daytona stands out as his only victory in his young career. Almirola have proven to be a threat to run well when thrust into the right situation.

Almirola best days will come on short tracks and Intermediate racetracks. Last season he showed promise at multiple venues.Expect inconsistent results on both type of tracks. But some of his best finishes will likely come on the shorts and intermediate racetracks as well.

At short tracks , expect inconsistent results. He will likely have a car capable of running in the teens. Martinsville or Richmond could be considered one of his best tracks. Last season he was very good at them. Clipped the top 10 in both races. In 2012 and 2013 , he even showed promise. Bristol remains iffy from a fantasy vantage point. He haven't had a standout run yet. But he haven't been anything worst then top 25 option either. Of the 6 races on shorts , expect finishes in the upper teens or somewhere in that area.

Intermediate racetracks it harder to pinpoint where to use him. Kansas stands out. In last 4 races at Kansas , Aric have 3 Top 10s. Homestead makes a strong case as his second best Intermediate racetracks. At Homestead he's have 4 Top 20s in 5 starts. Expect results from boarder-line top 15 to low twenties on most weeks.

Larger Intermediate tracks have been a troublesome spot for Aric. Auto Club Speedway stands out as his worst track. In 7 career races , he have an 31.5 average finish. Including 3 DNFs. Michigan is a much better track. In 6 career races , he have an 20.5 average finish. 5 of his 6 races resulted in 20th or better. Unfortunately his best result is 17th.

On flats , New Hampshire and Phoenix will likely be the best places to use Aric. In 14 races at those venes ,  10 of those he finished those inside the top 20. In the previous 10 races , he have finish 8 of them inside the top 20.

At the larger tracks , it been a real struggle so far for Aric.  Indy probably his best larger flat. In 3 career races , he have an 19.0 average finish with best finish of 17th and worse of 21th. He haven't gave us any reason to doubt him at Indy. Unfortunately he haven't gave us any reason to trust him either. Pocono been his worst flat by far. In 6 career starts , Aric have an 24.0 average finish. Best finish of 18th.

Road Courses , successful and Aric Alimorola mix well as me and my ex-wife. In 8 career races on road courses , Aric have an 25.9 average finish and 3 Top 20s. Best result of 18th. Tough to defend a guy who haven't even finish inside the top 15 at either venue. When it comes to fantasy value , he holds little to none at Sonoma and Watkins. Least until he improves his road courses skills.

Restrictor Plate Tracks will likely remains a iffy area for Aric. Despite winning at Daytona , Aric have only have 6 finishes better then 20th. Only one other top 10. In fact his win at Daytona is his only top 20 there. Talladega he finish respectable most of the time there. Probably better options out there.

Aric will have his moments in the sun. I think there about 6-7 races where he will have relevancy value. But I wouldn't try to force anything either. Aric ceiling most weekends be top 15. Usually expect a finish in the mid to upper teens. Low twenties on his worst days. I honestly would try to use him at the short flats of New Hampshire and Phoenix if necessary. I kinda feel like those are one of his better tracks. Same with Richmond and Kansas. Kansas he probably found the most successful in this point of his career.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2014 Fantasy Nascar Bust Review

Welcome to TimersSports

In Fantasy Racing , sleepers are the primary hidden gems. We always look for them to find addition fantasy value. Busts are in my opinion much harder to find/determine. The general public definition is someone who fails to match or exceed original standards. Not the definition I would use to describe an bust. But you get the idea.

Today we are diving into some blast from the past. Few weeks ago , I gave my top sleepers for the 2014 season (click here). Now we turn our attention to the busts review. Lets roll!

Garry's Bust List:

Kyle Busch - Rowdy Busch had a stellar season in 2013. Busch headed into the 2014 season as a top pick among the fantasy nascar community and general public. Instead of being one of the most reliable drivers in our sport , he had a down season. His lone win came at Auto Club. Had one of his worst seasons in almost every major category. By Busch standards , it was a down year. Not all his fault , but at end of the day he was a bust.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Ricky Jr had a very nice rookie campaign in 2013. So it only logically he was in for an better 2014 season , right? Yeah it is. Unfortunately  he races for Roush and the 2014 season was pretty much a lost cause early in the season. Stenhouse had 1 Top 5 and 5 Top 10s. Didn't see that coming. Especially not an 22.4 average finish in 35 races. Hard to defend a guy who went backwards in year 2. Maybe better luck in 2015?

Kurt Busch - In 2013 , Kurt drove for the underfunded 78 team before being promoted to SHR in 2014. Many people were expecting big time numbers after all the success with the 78 in 2013. Sadly things didn't go according to plan. In fact , Outside of his win it was a pretty lackluster season. No doubt had few other good runs. But not consistency. Had 6 Top 5s , 11 Top 10s , 18.6 average finish and 6 DNFs. Not many expected these numbers. The bright side he ended 2014 positively with new Crew Chief Tony Gibson.

Twitter - @Gbriggs12

2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Sam Hornish Jr

Welcome to TimersSports

2015 Sam Hornish Jr Profile

Sam Hornish Jr will return to an full time ride in 2015 with RPM. If you have played fantasyracing since 2006 , then you know all about Sam. Hornish is an younger Juan Pablo Montoya when it comes to stock car. From time to time , knock off a top 10. But more often then not will contend in the mid to upper teens/ twenties. Like Montoya , he cannot be trusted. Sam have yet to prove he's cup material. His best year was with Penske (filling in for Dinger) , had an 19.3 average finish in 20 races.

Sam will likely have some solid races where he looks really good. But he also will have you say , "what was I thinking picking him" on others days. Point is Hornish an bag of surprises. Never know what could come out.

His best days will be on the larger tracks like Pocono , Michigan and Auto Club. His best two tracks are Pocono and Michigan least in the past it been. His 17th at Auto Club in 2014 backs up too. In his NSCS career , he's have an 21.1 average finish on those tracks. So expect finishes in the mid to upper teens. Top 10s aren't out of the question though.

Outside of Pocono , flat tracks aren't exactly a strong suit for Hornish. At New Hampshire , he will likely make a strong case as an top 20 option. Phoenix he will be at best an top 25 value. RPM haven't exactly set the world on fire at these venues either.

On short tracks , Hornish will have his moments to shine. But he also will have some of his worse results as well. Richmond is considered his best short track and it really isn't much of a debate either. Posted finishes in the top 12 3 of previous 5 starts. At Bristol and Martinsville , I wouldn't expect anything beyond an low twenties result.

Road Couses will likely be nightmare-ish like when it comes to fantasy value and Sam. In his career , Sonoma is by far his worst track. His 35.0 average finish drives chills down my backside. His Watkins Glenn record makes a good argument , but his lone good result is an 5th. Beyond that he have finishes of 14,32 and 36. Should be noted , his 5th finish was in the 22 car. With RPM , he unlikely to match that. Sam Hornish Jr is no Marcos Ambrose at road courses. Not even close. Even though people think since he have a open wheel background he an top notch driver on the courses. In reality he's not. Open-wheel and stock car are two different forms of racing. He will likely be good for a finish in the teens.

Plate tracks probably aren't the best place to use him. In cup career , Sam have a best finish of 15th and have more often then not have finished 20th or worse. Think I would pass. Better places to use him.

At end of the day , we don't have much to go on others then past data. Honestly expect Marcos Ambrose results from 2014. Minus top finishes at the road courses. RPM equipment  will limit him as well. I will probably have him penciled in at the larger oval of Pocono , Michigan and Auto Club as an legit fantasy option. Other then that it hard saying. That what the season is for though.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Welcome to Timerssports

2015 Ricky Stenhouse Jr Profile

Ricky I think have plenty of potential to be a solid cup driver , I was quite surprised how much he regress from year 1 to year 2. In year 3 , he needs to be consistent in pretty much every area. More importantly , Ricky needs to find more speed on a weekly basis. Something he lacked in 2014.

Intermediate tracks is where Ricky will earn his bacon. Last season , his numbers were ugly. But Roush usually unload fast racecars at these tracks. In rookie year , his best races came at Kansas , Texas and Chicago. All three high-speed intermediate racetracks. Last year was just a down year for RFR. I trust 2013 data a little more.

Short tracks could go either way with Ricky. His 20.8 career average finish suggests he been somewhat competitive. But he only have a small simple size of races. Difficult to get accuracy data from it. Expect mix results mainly. Short tracks aren't exactly Roush strong suit.

Road courses he been pretty bad overall. His career average finish is 24.0. That tell me its not one of strengths. His Nationwide record probably could back that up as well. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. I probably wouldn't use him at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn.

Plate tracks been Ricky strong suit. He have finished in the top 10 six times in 8 races. But he also finished 41st in his most recent start. Roush strong suit definitely will be Plate races. But from a fantasy vantage point , picking Ricky is playing with fire. If he wrecks out (like the summer 2014- Daytona race) , you literally a sitting duck. Trust me I know because I was.

Ricky will be a useable option from time to time. Mainly at plate races and maybe high speed intermediate racetracks. Much of the Ricky equation will heavily depends on the improvemts (performance wise) at RFR. If improvements are little to none , don't expect much use from Ricky Jr in 2015. Same goes for Bayne and Biffle.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Danica Patrick

Welcome to TimersSports

2015 Danica Patrick Profile

Danica Patrick quite possibly one of the most underrated drivers in the NSCS. She always get blasted for being an average driver. What people don't understand is she only been in stock car racing for roughly 5 years. Most of her competitors have least 10-15 years of experience on her.

Danica have the abilities to run competitively inside the mid to upper teens / lower twenties. Last season we saw a incline in production. Kansas and Michigan stood out to me. Arguably her race of her career was at Kansas. Michigan not far behind. High speed Intermediate tracks will likely be her secondary strength to Plate tracks. Due to her inconsistency. Outside of Kansas and Michigan , she had a mix results in 2014. Unlikely to change in 2015. Least that the logical answer.

Short tracks will likely continue to be issue for Danica. In her NSCS career , she had very few good showings. Why? Mainly due to being lapped or damaged racecar. Short tracks can causes problems even for some of our sport top drivers. Nevertheless from a fantasy vantage point , I would recommend avoiding her on the short tracks. 26.8 Average finish in 2014. Richmond was her best result of 16th. Only one other top 20. Not exactly fantasy relevancy.

Flat tracks she will have mix results. So far in her career have been far better on the shorter flat tracks then the larger flats. New Hampshire and Phoenix stood out in 2014. She had 24.7 average. At Pocono and Indy she had a 36.3 average finish. Little misleading though. She had competitive cars at Pocono , but had bad luck. Still the flats make me nervous with Danica especially from a fantasy pov.

The Plate tracks will be interesting to say the least. I believe Danica best finish will come on one of the these 4 races in 2015. Most times these races ends will maybe 15 or so cars left on the lead lap. Usually underfunded or inexperienced drivers get a chance at an single digital finish. Pinpointing on which of the 4 is the tricky part. She also have proven to be a solid qualifier too. That's a bonus in some league formats.

Danica will likely be nothing more then an top 20 option on most weekends with top 15 upside at certain tracks. She probably never gonna be anything beyond that , least this upcoming season. I would try to use her at Daytona , Kansas , Michigan and other similar tracks. Most weekends she will be more of a liability then an asset. I often forgotten that and paid the price. Most of you probably have too. When selecting high risk/high reward drivers , its always wise to weight weather it worth it after everything is factored in.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2015 Fantasy Nascar Driver Preview: Trevor Bayne

Welcome to TimersSports

Trevor Bayne 2015 Fantasy Nascar Profile

Trevor Bayne in my opinion have abilities to be a successful driver for Roush in the future. Especially with his overall strength be highspeed-Intermediate tracks. Something Roush usually strong at.
2015 could be a interesting year for Bayne. Typically rookies struggle , and I am sure he will have growing pains. But the 2015 rule package lines up nicely for Bayne. The cut horsepower will make these Cup cars drive like the NNS cars did. Bayne no stranger to them. Will this automatically give him an advantage? No of course not. But it definitely won't hurt either.

Looking at Trevor in general , his best days will come on the high speed intermediate racetracks. Michigan , Texas , Kansas , Charlotte to name a few familiar ones for Bayne. Those are the tracks us fantasy players should target. Usually for rookies , familiar tracks lead to respectable finishes. Unfamiliar tracks not so much.

His worse days will likely come on the road courses and maybe short tracks. Road courses haven't been a strong suit for Bayne so far in his career. Moving up to Nascar top competitive level won't make it any easier. Short tracks are questionable due to the unknowns of Bayne abilities on short tracks. We don't really have a simple size to know. Kinda gonna have to play the wait and see game.

Restrictor Plate Tracks will be interesting to say the least. On one hand , I believe Bayne is overrated on the plates. Outside of the one win , he been a bust. On the other hand , RFR always brings fast cars to Daytona and Talladega. So the potential will be there. Of course all 43 cars have potential there..so.

The missing unknown to the Bayne equation will likely be the Roush itself. No question RFR struggled to find speed in 2014. I don't see RFR being quite as bad to start off 2015. But no doubt we would have higher standards for Bayne if RFR was an top-tier organization like back in 2012. To Quote Rocky III  , "Eye of the
tiger, man; the edge! And now you
gotta get it back, and the way to
get it back is to go back to the
beginning." RFR needs to get eye of the tiger back.

At end of the day , if Bayne is on the lead lap and in contention for a top 20 its will be a good day. Early in the season expect him to be at best an top 25 driver. As the season approaches the second half , look for an incline in production. Usually rookies get better as the season goes on. Hopefully most of his poor results comes in the first 18 to 20 races.

Twitter - @MattAleza