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We are headed to Pocono this weekend! The most unique racetrack on the schedule in my opinion! Pocono only have three turns. All three turns are different which make getting your car 100% perfect nearly impossible. The key is for teams to find a equal balance among the turns.
Usually the powerhouses (Hendrick, Haas, Penske, Gibbs,etc) dominate this race. This racetrack require a lot of speed as cars will rocket around the 2.5-mile racetrack. The huge downside to tracks like this is the fastest cars usually don't win! This weekend you would want load up on the powerhouses, but don't be afraid to add a few dark horses to your lineups.
1-Jamie McMurray: JMac is coming off an top 10 at Dover! He may go under the radar at Pocono though. Last season he posted finishes of 7th and 10th. Over his past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 11.5 average finish, 15.0 average start, 15.5 average running position, and 84.7 driver rating. Those are some really reliable numbers! Historically speaking he been hit or miss though! In 19 career starts, he only have an 19.7 average finish with 6 Top 10s. However he have finished 17th or better in 6 straight Pocono races.
2-Brad Keselowski: Penske was considerably off at Dover. Kinda wonder if that was a fluke or not. Last season he finished 23rd and 2nd. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, BK have compiled 11.8 average finish, 6.8 average start, 8.8 average running position, 113 laps led and 108.4 driver rating. Those are pretty solid numbers since the repave. He been decent from a career point of view too. In 10 career starts, he holds an 13.4 average finish with 4 Top 10s. Including 4 Top 6s in his past 7 races (since 2011). More noticeably, he have finished inside the top 4 in 3 of those 4 races.
3-Austin Dillon: I am not gonna spend a lot of time on Dillon as it tough to get a good read on Dillon's fantasy value before practice and qualifying. He have shown a lot more speed lately which might make him a sneaky play. Last season he posted finishes of 15th and 17th. Also posted 19.5 average running position and 79.4 driver rating. So not like he lucked into those finishes. Honestly Dillon he seems to have a knack for running well at larger tracks such as Michigan and Pocono.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is my early pick to win. Last season he stood out to me as one of the best driver here. He posted 8.0 average finish and 10.0 average running position with 112.5 driver rating. His numbers would be better if he didn't go a lap down in the first race last season after a blown tire. He been one of the most consistent drivers at Pocono. In 16 of his past 20 races (dating back to 2005) , he have finished 15th or better. Including 9 of those races resulting inside the top 10. He haven't been the best driver since the repave, but probably will be a heavy favorite after practice and qualifying though.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey is Pocono best kept secret (or worst kept secret). This is a very good track for him. However he been pretty bi-polar between the first and second Pocono races. Over the past 3 seasons (6 races), Kahne have wheeled off 3 Top 10s (2 Top 5s, including a win). Unfortunately all three of those results have came in the August's race. Kasey, June and Pocono don't belong in the same sentence! His finishes are as followed: 42,36 and 29. He have ran well in the June race, but haven't gotten the results. This is a trend however though. Meaning it pretty much worthless unless it continue. Kinda the side affect of trends, we cannot put too much into. But we cannot ignore them either. Either way Kahne should have a fast car!
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick have ran well at Pocono, but haven't gotten the results to show for it though. I always have said places like this are where she will succeed at. I like Danica a lot this week, but I have a feeling she will disappoint somehow though. She posted terrible results last season of 30th and 37th. However qualified and competitively ran well in both races. Really hard to say how Danica will do at Pocono. SHR should give her a car capable of running inside the top 20 this week.
11-Denny Hamlin: I was convinced snippers had a bulleye on the Joe Gibbs Racing cars. Glad I didn't bet on any of them at Dover. Pocono was at one time a personal playground for Hamlin. I think he back to his old self on the flat tracks. Pocono remains a very good track for Hamlin. I usually throw away 2013 season data for Hamlin as that was a weird year for him. Last season he posted finishes of 9th and 4th. While posting 9.5 average running position and 102.2 driver rating. Those are very good stats in a down year. JGR is way better off than last season and I think Hamlin gonna deliver a big-time finish. Historically speaking, Hamlin been stout. In 18 career starts, he have held 11.9 average finish with 12 Top 10s. Including 9 Top 5 and 4 wins. Only two top 5 since 2012 though.
16-Greg Biffle: Biffle have shown improvements recently, but I am not convinced RFR is back. At best, RFR is clinging onto relevancy! Honestly I don't like Biff much this week. Sure he finished 5th and 16th last season. But he held 17.5 average running position and 78.8 driver rating. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 8.3 average finish, 14.5 average start, 14.3 average running position, and 87.5 driver rating. Those aren't terrible numbers, but I am still not ready to jump on the Biffle bandwagon. There too many unknowns with this organization to be trusted!
18-Kyle Busch: Busch have been super competitive since returning from injury. Pocono have been a decent track for him too. I wouldn't call it great though. He posted finishes of 12th and 42nd last season. His 42nd place finish was a soared engine. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, Rowdy have compiled 21.6 average finish, 6.8 average start, 20.2 average running position, and 77.5 driver rating. Those are pretty average numbers. He been much better than that though. In 3 of those 6 races, he have either wrecked out or had a mechanical issue. In the other 3 races? He have compiled 8.7 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 98.5 driver rating. There probably better options than Rowdy this week though.
19-Carl Edwards: Heading into Dover, one of my biggest concerns was Carl Edwards. What does he go out and do? He speed twice on pit road. However I believe this will put him off most people radars at Pocono. Last season he struggled with finishes of 29th and 42nd. Those are terrible finishes, but he wasn't that bad though. Before last season? He wheeled off 4 of the previous 5 races inside the top 11. His other finish was 18th. I believe Edwards will be undervalued this week.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth isn't a great pick this weekend. Pocono always been an average track for him. Over his past 4 starts at Pocono, he have compiled 27.5 average finish, 18.0 average start, 19.8 average running position, and 71.1 driver rating. In 30 career starts, Matt have only 10 Top 10 finishes with 16.1 average finish. He have finished 5 straight races at Pocono outside the top 20. Over his past 16 starts, Kenseth only have 4 Top 10 finishes. So he is basically averaging a top 10 finish every 4 races.
22-Joey Logano: Logano and Team Penske seem to have fallen off the map lately. Performance wise they've been decent, but decent isn't gonna cut it. Logano should make a okay option this week though. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 9.0 average start, 10.5 average running position and 97.7 driver rating. Since the repave (6 races) , Logano have been one of the best in the series. Minus last June race, he have slapped together an impressive 6.8 average finish (series-best) with 10.6 average running position and 103.3 driver rating. Don't sleep on Logano, as he could pack quite a punch as a fantasy option.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is a good sleeper for this weekend race. He is a 6-time winner and won success here recently. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 7.0 average finish, 10.8 average start, 8.3 average running position, 72 laps led and 113.6 driver rating. I wouldn't call Gordon a must-have or even a legitimate fantasy option. However he always seems to run well here for whatever reason. Even in down years like '09,'10,'12 and '13. All seasons he struggled to find wins, he ran well here.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is a hidden value-play this weekend. His stats don't show it, but he been a legitimate top 15 option. And he is running significantly better with his new crew chief. Mark my words, Menard will contend for another top 10 this weekend. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 30.3 average finish, 20.5 average start, 21.3 average running position and 63.7 driver rating. Very ugly numbers, but he was competitively running near or inside the top 15 when he had issues in all 4 races. Before he have had that stench of bad luck? He finished 6 straight races inside the top 16. Actually he wheeled off 5 Straight finishes of 14th or better from 2010 to 2012. More impressively had 3 straight Top 11 before landing in the shitter at Pocono!
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is one of the most underrated options at Pocono. Least this weekend that is. Pocono is a very great racetrack for him. I think it have something to do with the fishing. And he love fishing on the water! Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 6.0 average finish, 15.8 average start, 13.0 average running position, 21 laps led and 95.3 driver rating. Last time finished outside the top 20? 2005. Which is 20 races ago! Last time he finished worse than 15th? 2008. In fact, he finished 9 straight races inside the top 12. Including 7 Top 10s in the past 9 races. Not many drivers have the consistent thing down at Pocono like Newman!
41-Kurt Busch: I have had this Pocono racetrack circled twice for Kurt Busch! His performance last June still stand out to me. He had one of the strongest cars in the field and that was in a down year. I have high hopes for him this weekend. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 6.5 average finish, 7.8 average start, 7.5 average running position, 44 laps led and 114.3 driver rating. Those are very good numbers, but he been even better recently. Over his past 7 races here, Busch have knocked off 4 finishes of 3rd or better. Historically speaking, he have held an 14.7 average finish with 11 Top 5s and 15 Top 10s in 27 races.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson may be on to something lately. He definitely have shown more speed lately and at Dover it all came together for the 2nd-year driver. What stood out most how strong he was last weekend. Not only in the race, but in practice too. Hopefully that continue at another good racetrack for him. Pocono is definitely a track he can have success at. Last season he posted an 8.0 average finish, 7.5 average start, 12.5 average running position and 95.7 driver rating. Hard judging Larson since we have little season data, but I am fairly high on him.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson coming off Dover with a win and now goes to another great racetrack. I am not gonna spend a lot of time on Johnson, but he have a strong track record here. In 27 career starts, Johnson have an 9.9 average finish with 3 wins. Including 6 Top 6 finishes in his past 10 races at this racetrack! Over his past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.8 average finish, 9.8 average start, 13.3 average running position, 176 laps led and 103.3 driver rating. I think Johnson is very beatable this weekend, but also believe he may put laps around the field. So kinda risk vs reward.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex have ran very well this season! He have finished inside the top 10 in 12 of 13 races this season. Unfortunately this isn't a great track for him from a career point of view. In 18 career starts, he have finished only 6 of those races inside the top 10. I think Truex will make a fine fantasy option, but I wouldn't expect anything super special though. He did finish 9th last June though.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Earnhardt Jr will be one of the more popular fantasy options this weekend. I don't think he will sweep Pocono again, but hard to argue against his results since 2012. In the past 6 races, he have compiled 8.3 average finish, 10.7 average start, 7.8 average running position, 80 laps led and 117.5 driver rating. Some people say he is a must-have, but I disagree. He probably the most reliable option, but I think there a few drivers with more upside.
*All stats from DriverAverages.com & FantasyRacingCheatSheet
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