Welcome to TimersSports
We are headed to my personal favorite track of The Glenn. For awhile now I thought road courses were some of the most entertaining tracks of the schedule. I think road course racing have became more of a focused skill than it use to be. 20 years ago only a selected few drivers could run up front, but now anyone can go out and win a race. I think that speak volume how rewarding winning these type of races.
This is the second road course on the schedule, however don't get the two tracks confused though. They are two different racetracks that have two different style of racing. Sonoma (we raced there earlier this season) is like a short track. A lot of drivers will have damage but they can still race competitively. Mainly because the racing is tighter and the action is slower. The Glenn is quite the opposite. While some drivers will perform well at one, he or she may not find the same amount of success at the other. Don't get me wrong, there are some drivers out there who have found success at both though.
**Qualifying is on Saturday.
1-Jamie Mac: JMac is better at Sonoma than the Glenn. Even though his numbers are pretty good here at The Glenn. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 12.5 average finish with 10.0 average start, 11.5 average running position and 94.3 driver rating. He have finished 11th and 14th. He actually have finished 11th-17th in 4 of the past 5 races at The Glenn. His only bad outing? In 2012, he finished 39th but only completed 24 laps before getting involved in a accident. From career point of view, he have only two top 10 finish in 12 career starts. However he have finished 17th or better in 8 of those 12 races. His career best finish was 3rd in 2006 with Roush.
2-Brad Keselowski: This is one of Brad's best racetracks unlike Sonoma have been. Over the past 4 seasons, he have finished 2nd in three of those races. However he finished 35th here last season. I cannot remember exactly what happened, but I know something went wrong and he lost several laps. Trust me because I had him in most of my fantasy lineups. The Glenn fits Brad's racing style more and it have shown in the finishes so far in his Cup career. Since winning the championship in 2012, I think he is having one of his worst seasons. Even though he having a strong season overall by looking at his numbers compared to the competition. In years past I would say he is a must have, but I think you could go against the majority though.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is not a great fantasy pick for your team this weekend when considering the tracks he potentially have coming up. Last season he struggled after starting 31st and finishing 16th. He was decent in that race but had nothing more than a 25-ish place car if my memory is correct. His value get dropped more because he haven't ever shown much promise on the road courses in any racing series. I cannot name one race in his entire career where he looked remotely good. Typically Dillon is good for a finish from 15th-22nd. That exactly whe/re I expect him to run and finish this weekend at The Glenn.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick will be one of the heavy favorite in this week's race. Not only is Harvick a great driver here historically but he was bad fast here last season. He may have won this race if he didn't have to pit within the first four laps for a miscue by his crew on the car. If I remember right he spent most of the day trying to recover from that. He eventually did and finished 7th! In 14 career starts, only twice have he finished worse than 15th. The last time he finished worse than 15th was back in 2009. The combination of stout speed and track history success makes him in my eyes the odd-on favorite to win. Of course I say this every week about him. Any good fantasy player would agree though.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne is well in a slump. When I mean slump I mean he sucks! Sorry but that exactly how I feel about him. Outside of Sonoma, he have only one top 10 finish since Richmond back in April. You cannot expect to make the chase with results like that. Not to mention, he have finished 19th or worse in 5 straight races. 3 of the past 4 races (dating back to Kentucky) have resulted in 27th or worse. Plus Sonoma is his better road course. The results just haven't been there like it been with Sonoma in recent seasons. Truthfully I am not very high on Kahne going forward. At this rate, I think he will have to win a race to make the chase and I think that will be difficult.
10-Danica Patirck: Patrick shocked with a top 15 run at Pocono. I wasn't surprised by how fast she was, but I was caught off guard that she actually finished a race there. Well props to her. At the Glenn I am not sure how I feel about her. I think there potential with her, but I haven't seen her race enough to say she is a legit fantasy option this week. However she have shown conistency at The Glenn in two career starts. In 2 career starts, she have compiled 20.5 average finish, 39.0 average start, 25.5 average running position and 52.9 driver rating. I think she finishes somewhere in between 19th-24nd this week. So pretty much her usual.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is a very average road course racer and personally I doubt he is even that. Okay I may be a little harsh, but he isn't a good fantasy option though. Over his past 5 races at the Glenn, he have finished 19th or worse in every single race. Including three races of 34th or worse. However there a trend at Sonoma and The Glenn. He started his career at both tracks with success. Since 2010 he have not finished inside the top 10 in a race on either course. Before 2010? He finished inside the top 12 in every start at both tracks minus 2008 at the Glenn. I am willing to bet he is nothing more than a mid-teen at best fantasy pick. Even though he have often ran well at the road courses, but only to find a way to finish poorly.
16-Greg Biffle: Biffle was one of the drivers I was pretty high on at Sonoma, but he finished like 28th after getting into Danica Patrick. Quite frankly he is much better at Sonoma than he is at the Glenn. So my hopes aren't awful high for him. Realistically a top 15 finish would be like a top 10 finish for fantasy players who risk it with the Biff. I don't hate him considering he have finished 8th and 6th in 2 of the past 3 seasons.Thinking back to last season race here, he wasn't terrible overall. He hung around in the teens and completed for a top 15 run. However few late cautions probably helped him compelled into the top 10 though. While I don't hate Biffle, I don't like him much either. Gamble with the Biff at your own risk, but you won't see him on my fantasy team this weekend.
18-Kyle Busch: The streak ended at Pocono, but he probably will start a new one this weekend though. There isn't a better fantasy pick to choose from this week. Kyle brings the rare combination of monument and strong track record. Last season he finished 40th but it all started with a penalty on pit road and then he had a run-in with Martin Truex Jr and that pretty much ended his day. Before last season's poor finish? He finished 8th or better in 9 straight races. Kyle is basically the modern day version of Jeff Gordon at the Glenn back in the '90s. I think it will be very hard to bet against Kyle Busch this week. He won earlier this season at Sonoma and he is much better at the Glenn than he is there. So if Kyle can run top 5 at Sonoma, then I think he may be one of the few heavily favorites who can realistically win on Sunday.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards will probably be one of the most talked about fantasy options headed into Sunday race because of the success he have found here recently. However as we saw at Sonoma, it really doesn't matter how much success you find in the past. Over the past two season, he have compiled 4.5 average finish, 16.0 average start, 11.0 average running position and 99.1 driver rating. From career point of view, Edwards been pretty much unstoppable. In 10 career starts, Edwards have held an 8.4 average finish with 9 Top 14 finishes. Including 4 top 5 finishes in the past 6 races. In fact, his worst finish ever at this track was in 2005 with 19th place effort. For those that were wondering it was in his rookie season at the Glenn.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is fresh off a win and could have another strong race this weekend. I think he is one of the most underrated fantasy options in the field. Most people don't realize how solid he been on the road courses lately. More specifically at the Glenn. Over his past 8 starts (dating back to 2007), he have finished 14th or better in 7 of those 8 races. Including finishes of 8th and 9th in 2 of the past 3 seasons. Now he is far from a legit fantasy option in most format because of his ride quality, fantasy value (price) and other important factors. If you are looking to for a safe fantasy pick then you may have found your man. If you are looking for a top 5 finisher, then you will have to look elsewhere.
22-Joey Logano: I said this at Sonoma and I will say this again this weekend that Joey Logano is the most overlooked fantasy option in the field on a weekly basis. Personally I think he abused on the road courses by most people. Everyone should have him on their radar as a legit potential top 10 pick with upside to be a top 5 guy. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 6.5 average finish, 10.0 average start, 12.5 average running position, and 92.0 driver rating. Over his past 4 races here, he have finished 7th or better in 3 of those races. Remember earlier this season he had a solid run at Sonoma. They are two different tracks, but he have found a great deal of success at both courses. So hopefully the trend continue for Joey Logano. I view him a top 10 guy headed in, but it wouldn't shock me to see him win on Sunday.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon's run at Sonoma pretty much nailed his coffin shut in term of any relevancy this season in my book. The Glenn have been a very tough place for him. Despite winning 4 races at this course from 1997 to 2001 (5 race span), he have gone into a major slump at this place. Since his 2001 win (13 races), Gordon have finished 21st or worse in 8 of those 13 races. More importantly he have only 2 top 10s in that 13 race span. Best finish? 9th in 2007. His only other top 10 result was in 2010 (10th). Digging deeper into the stats, he have finished inside the top 15 in 5 races dating back to the 2002 season. With 2 of those coming in the past 8 at this place. I guess my point being don't fall for the Gordon trap.
27-Paul Menard: Menard isn't exactly an ace on the road courses, but he haven't terrible lately either though. However I think he have performed better at Sonoma though. In 6 career stats at WGI, he have finished 12th-19th in 4 of those 6 races. His two results outside of the top 19? 32nd (twice). Unfortunately both have came in the past 3 races. Including last season here. While there isn't a lot to like about Menard, I do think he offer more than most realize. I am not saying he will be a game changer, but he can be a nice top 15 fantasy option or so. Something than more than enough, however I think how the competition does will determine his overall value.
41-Kurt Busch: Hated for Kurt Busch to get wrecked last weekend at Pocono. I for sure thought he showed more speed last weekend than he did in quite awhile. Oh well onto another great track for Kurt. The Glenn been one of his best tracks for awhile, even though he is a little better at Sonoma. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 6.0 average finish, 9.0 average start, 7.0 average running position and 108.8 driver rating. Last season he probably had one of the strongest cars on the long runs. If I remember right he had the best car in that race. He didn't lead any laps, but he had an impressive 4.0 average running position. At a road course that is pretty darn stout if you ask me. From career point of view, he offer a lot to like. Kurt been rock solid. He have finished inside the top 11 in the past 6 races of 8 races. Surprising Kurt have never won at WGI.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson finished 4th last season at The Glenn. I wouldn't say he was great in that race as he struggled all weekend long. Never really looked like anything beyond an top 25-ish driver, however on one of the last green flag runs he drove through the field like a 10-year vet. I think that was the race when everyone was convinced on how good this kid really is. While he isn't having a season like last season (CGR clearly lost what they had in 2014), but I still do think he can respectably contend for a top 10 or top 15 finish. That all you can ask for from most fantasy picks this weekend at WGI though.
47-AJ Dinger: If you are going against AJ Dinger this week than you are either on drugs or you are taking fantasy racing lessons from my fellow colleague
Garry Briggs (he is slightly insane though). Either way it would be very unwise. Over the past two season, AJ Dinger have compiled 5.5 average finish, 5.0 average start, 8.5 average running position, 30 laps led and 116.9 driver rating. Last season he won this race, started 6th, and held 6.0 average running position. Overall thought Jeff Gordon and Marcos Ambrose were the two biggest threat to him last season here. Gordon is in a major slump this season and Ambrose isn't in Cup anymore. Believe me when I say Dinger can and will be tough to beat. You would be a fool to bet against him!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is in my opinion one of the most underrated racers on the road courses. People will overlook him and that will be a very big mistake though! I would not be shocked to see him go to victory lane on Sunday. He finished 28th last season but he was very strong in that event. He was pretty fast but just didn't get the finish he wanted. Before that? He have finished inside the top 10 in 3 straight races. Dating back to 2007 (past 8 races), he have finished inside the top 12 in 6 races. Including 5 of those races inside the top 10. Johnson is a little better at Sonoma, but I doubt that matter much to the 48 team. Chad and Jimmie are out for blood , so I wouldn't be shocked to see them gamble on Sunday in order to win. So there risk but the reward could be huge!
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex and the 78 team are starting to show signs of speed again! I like that as I was little concerned there for a few races after Sonoma. However they seems to be in good shape now. Hopefully it continue as we get closer to the chase. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 8.0 average finish, 14.0 average start, 12.0 average running position and 96.2 driver rating. A lot of people think Truex suddenly became a strong road course during the 2013 season. Let me tell you that is 100% inaccuracy and his past stats at WGI will tell you that as well. In 9 career starts, Truex have finished inside the top 15 in 7 of those races. Including 4 top 5 finishes which is roughly half of his starts.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is the first name that comes up when we go to road courses, but lately it have. I was convinced last season was simply a fluke. However another strong run at Sonoma earlier this season have changed my mind quite a bit. I think 3 straight top 11 finishes on road courses is a trend and it is a trend that I could definitely see myself jumping on. Given he shows the speed in practice. While Dale Jr been nothing special, I do believe he is headed in the right direction. I think he offer great fantasy value due most people will just overlook him. But first I want to see how he practices and qualifies though.
***All stats are from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
