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We are headed to Texas this weekend for the Sprint Cup Series race at Texas Motor Speedway! I love this track and personally it's one of my favorite tracks that are 1.5 mile in length. From a fantasy vantage point, I think this is overall a pretty fantasy friendly place. You can really mix and match your lineups to your liking. Meaning you don't have to stack your lineup with star power. I would recommend stacking your lineup with heavy favorites, but sneaking in a few sleepers could be a great idea! With the recent events that happened, I think it could play out favorable for fantasy players.
Here's today preview! Enjoy!
1-JMac: I told you all about how great of a fantasy option JMac was going to be in last week's preview. Hope you all listened because he is coming off a 2nd-place run at Martinsville. For the record that is his best finish of the season. Texas is another good place for him to be used at. Of the remaining tracks, I would say this is his best track. Earlier this season, he finished 9th after leading 9 laps. I would strongly argue that was his best race at Texas since rejoining CGR . Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 16.2 average start, 15.8 average running position and 84.3 driver rating. He had some bad luck in that span of races. I think it important to note that he have knocked off 3 straight top 20 finishes. Including back-to-back top 10 finishes dating back to last fall. In fact, those finishes have ended in 5th and 6th. JMac been inconsistent here since the start of the 2012 season. In the past 7 races at TMS, he have wheeled off 6 Top 18 finishes. He also been decent on the 1.5 milers this season! He have put together 16.8 average finish with 16.6 average running position. However if we take out that Atlanta race (wreck), he have 13.9 average finish and no finishes worse than 20th.
2-Brad Keselowski: The Penske boys are in a situation where they have to win this weekend or both of them are probably going to miss the next round with the final cut-off race being Phoenix. Keselowski is in a better spot than Logano, but not by much. Earlier this season, Keselowski was okay but I wouldn't call him anything special though. In that race, I thought Johnson and Harvick were class of the field by far. Then came everyone else. Keselowski was top 5 strong, but that pretty much it though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 7.6 average finish, 9.8 average start, 9.6 average running position and 105.6 driver rating. Since the fall 2012 race(6 races ago), Keselowski have been easily one of the most consistent drivers in the field. Only once have he finished worse than 9th and that was last spring. Even though he easily had a top 3 car for that race. What happened was that he got penalized for speeding I believe. Teammate Joey Logano went to victory lane. In 4 of those previous 6 races, he have finished 6th or better. This is a very good track for Keselowski. In fact, I would go far as this is his best track left on the schedule. Even though Phoenix also is a great track for him. He been strong on the 1.5 milers in 2015. In 9 races, he have put together 7.4 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 104.3 driver rating. Only Logano have been more consistent in his finishes.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon's value have taken a dip in recent weeks, but don't be fool though. He have performed well, but he haven't gotten the finishes. He been a inconsistent driver on the 1.5 milers this season, but I would call it lackluster though. He obviously struggled on the first few performance wise. However he have ran well on this type track every time we came to it. I think having Slugger on the pitbox have helped a bunch as well. If the 3 team can put together a quality race, I think it will end in a very good finish. More than likely top 10. If they cannot put together a quality race, then you are probably in trouble. If you like trends then listen to this one: Austin Dillon have improved in all 5 of his starts at TMS.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick was in a great position to win at Martinsville but he had to pit and had to fight his way back to finish inside the top 10. However he now goes to two of his best tracks over the next two weeks. I would be very shocked if he didn't win least of these races. Earlier this season, he probably had the 2nd best car to only Jimmie Johnson. At times, I thought he was better than Johnson. It should be noted that Johnson wasn't all much better than Harvick. Johnson just was out front most of the time. Over the past 5 races here, Harvick have compiled 13.4 average finish, 11.6 average start, 13.2 average running position and 95.9 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have only once finished worse than 13th. That finish came last spring when he blew up after only 28 laps. If I remember correctly that race was held on a Monday due to rain. Histoically, Harvick been one of the best drivers in the series here. In 25 career starts, he have finished 15th or better in 19 races. Including back-to-back 2nd place finishes. Outside of Joey Logano, he probably been the 2nd-best driver on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season. Even though the results don't really show it. If you been watching him this season, then I don't really have to tell you that.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne been a tough driver to get a read on this season, but this have been a decent track for him in the past. Earlier this season, he was strong here and probably had a top 5 car up to late in the race. Honestly not sure what happened but he finished 8th. I felt like at Atlanta , Vegas and Texas (the first three 1.5 mile races), he had top 5 capable cars. Since he really have fell off on this type track in his performance. I guess Hendrick overall have fell off as a organization, too. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 14.6 average finish, 15.0 average start, 10.6 average running position and 97.2 driver rating. Since joining HMS in 2012 (7 races ago), he have been pretty solid here overall. In those 7 races, he have knocked off 5 Top 11 finishes. The bad news? In three starts in the fall race, he have finished 25th and 38th. The only two races, he haven't finished inside the top 11. However his career finish with HMS came in the fall of 2014 at TMS. I am not sure if that really helped anyone or made them even more uncertain about Kahne?
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin had a very nice finish at Martinsville and now have some momentum headed into Texas. A track that he have found plenty of success with since joining JGR. Earlier this season, he finished 11th but never really truly contended for the win though. None of the JGR were much of contender. However they are miles better now though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 10.3 average finish, 14.5 average start, 11.5 average running position and 91.8 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he have knocked off 4 straight top 13 finishes. Including 3 top 11 finishes in that 4-race span. Back in 2010, he swept both races, but since have not finished better than 13th. Despite the lack of top finishes here, he have been a pretty reliable fantasy option. Since his 2010 sweep, he have not finished worse than 20th in the past 8 starts. As I mention earlier, he have 4 straight top 13 finishes. I think JGR is better than they were all of last season and earlier this season. So he should least finish in the top 10 on Sunday. I would say more than likely top 5 though. What I have noticed is that Hamlin doesn't turn it on until late in the race. As we have saw often in the 2015 Chase!
18-Kyle Busch: You know who having a really solid chase? Kyle Busch. Two track have given him fits in recent seasons: Kansas and Talladega. He finished 5th and 11th at both of those track. He followed that up with a top 5 finish at Martinsville. He is in great shape headed into these next two races. He doesn't need to win, but knowing Kyle he will try to anyhow. He missed the race earlier this season, but he have performed well on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season. So don't be shocked to see him battling for the lead on Sunday. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 5.3 average finish, 11.0 average start, 9.0 average running position and 111.3 driver rating. Texas in my opinion is his best racetrack among the track of 1.5 miles in length. Especially over the past few seasons! Over his past 5 races alone dating back to the 2012 season, he have 4 top 4 finishes. His only result worse than 4th? 13th. In 13 career starts with JGR at Texas, Busch have put together 7 Top 6 finishes and 10 Top 13 finishes. Based on his recent efforts this season and recent efforts at Texas, I would say Busch is one of the best fantasy options in the field!
19-Carl Edwards: Things looked a bit ugly for both Busch and Edwards there for awhile at Martinsville, but both chase contenders were able to rebound very well. Edwards came home in 13th and put himself in a nice spot headed into Sunday's race. Earlier this season, he was decent I guess but nothing to write about. He finished 10th in that race and I believe that was his first top 10 finish of the season. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 14.6 average finish, 8.4 average start, 15.6 average running position and 88.0 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have put together 4 Top 14 finishes. Including 3 Top 10 finishes. From a career point of view, he have won three times with the last one coming back in 2008. Most recently he been a very reliable fantasy options. In his past 9 races at Texas, he have knocked off 6 Top 10 finishes. He been solid on the 1.5 milers. On the 1.5 milers this season, he have 11.7 average finish , 9.7 average start with 10.8 average running position and 96.8 driver rating. I would say he have signifcantly improved from the first Texas race until now. I would say he have a shot a top 10 finish at least.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth heads into Texas with a lot of chatter going on about him. Nevertheless this is a very good track for him! Earlier this season, he didn't have a very promising race overall. I believe he spun late in the race to make his day that much longer. He finished 23rd in that event, but was nothing more than a 15th place driver most of the night. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 14.2 average finish, 14.0 average start, 9.2 average running position and 98.6 driver rating. As good as Matt Kenseth been with JGR in 5 starts (3 top 12 finishes), he was simply the best in Nascar in his RFR days. Just listen to these stats: From 2002 to 2012, he had 15 Top 10 finishes and 12 Top 5 finishes. Only 4 times did finish worse than 9th. That was just ridiculous! I think RFR also had a better high-speed intermediate program when they were in their prime with Kenseth , Biffle and Edwards though. Based on this season results, I think Kenseth could make a very good fantasy option. Of course that if you are looking to gain ground on the competition. Overall he really don't hold too much value and quite frankly I think there better choices. Not because this isn't a great track for him (because it is), but because there too many unknowns with him.
22-Joey Logano: Like Kenseth, he also have a lot of chatter going on about him. Logano is in a bad position in points headed into Texas. Don't worry as he have been bad fast at Texas recently. Earlier this season, he finished 4th and led 19 laps. He was never truly a race-winning contender, but I thought he was the leader of that next group of drivers from 3rd-8th. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 5.0 average finish, 11.2 average start, 7.8 average running position and 109.9 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have finished inside the top 5 in 4 of those races. His worst finish was 12th. I think Logano punch his ticket to Miami this weekend and proves why he is still the man to beat for the championship!
24-Jeff Gordon: Last week while I was writing up the preview, I had a funny feeling that old Jeff Gordon was going to win at Martinsville. Sure enough he did exactly that! I am very happy for Jeff and his fans. So what is his fantasy outlook at Texas? I say it pretty good, as the 24 team can just ride around and take more risks than most drivers can. Earlier this season, he finished 7th but never contended for nothing more than a top 10 finish. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 22.8 average finish, 8.4 average start, 11.8 average running position and 97.6 driver rating. Gordon have been pretty unlucky at Texas, despite running very well. Last fall, he was batting for the win and Brad Keselowski got into Gordon and killed his chances of advancing to the final round of the chase. He finished 2nd last fall. In 2013, he finished 38th in both races. I was actually at the spring race that season and Gordon arguably had the 2nd-best car on the long only to Truex. I think he went to the garage with a mechanical issue though. This season Gordon been a consistent top 10 finisher on the 1.5 mile racetrack.
27-Paul Menard: I felt real bad for Menard back in the spring race because he had a stupid fast car in that race. He was running in 4th and catching the drivers in front of him. Then he pitted and everything went to hell and had to go behind the wall. Not the first time, he have ran well at Texas though. And I don't think that will be the last either. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 19.8 average finish, 11.8 average start, 15.2 average running position and 80.5 driver rating. He really haven't had a stellar performance recently (minus his 5th place finish in 2011), but I think he will within the next few races at this place. Since joining RCR in 2011 (9 races ago), he have put together 7 Top 18 finishes and 2 Top 10 finishes. As promising as that sounds, since joining RCR in 2011 he have never finished better in the fall than spring. In fact only once in his entire career have he finished better in the fall race than the spring. He finished 41st back in the spring. Yeah that doesn't bodes well for Mr. Paul. Not at all!
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch was just in a bad spot at the wrong time at Martinsville! I felt pretty bad for him, but I called it in my preview last week about avoiding Kurt. Martinsville hates him and he probably hates it. Texas have been a little kinder to him though. Earlier this season he finished 14th but he was much better than though. He actually led 45 laps in that race and probably had the 3rd or 4th best car in the race. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 23.0 average finish, 9.8 average start, 16.0 average running position and 85.3 driver rating. Kurt have been more of a hit or miss type guy here. Sometimes he does very well and other times he just sink the joint up. Just look at his past 5 races: 3 Top 17 finishes and 2 outside of the top 35. On the positive side, if you look at Kurt's record on the fall side. He have been pretty consistent dating back to the 2005 season. In 10 fall races at Texas, Kurt Busch have delivered 6 top 10 finishes. Kurt also been one of the strongest drivers on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season. He have put together 8.0 average finish with 7.6 average running position and 110.0 driver rating.
42-Kyle Larson: Young Kyle Larson didn't have the day he wanted at Martinsville, but he have a very good chance to be a excellent fantasy value after a couple average races in a roll. Texas in my opinion is his best racetrack or one of his best racetracks. He put together a pair of stellar runs in 2014 with finishes of 5th and 7th. So everyone had high hopes for him back in the spring and he laid a egg. Obviously Larson isn't what we were expecting, but don't worry he have bright future ahead of him though. Starting at Texas. I believe this 42 team wants to finish out the year strong and have something to build on for 2016. He been solid on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season, but he have had no luck once so ever. It funny because his teammate JMac played that role last season. While Larson got some of the best finishes. This year? Pretty much the opposite. At best I expect a top 12 from Larson. If he qualifies well and practice well, then I think he is top 10 material.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson just not having a great chase (much like last season), but I actually like him a lot at Texas. He won earlier this season, but i think him repeating that performance is a long shot. If he cannot finish inside the top 10 at two of his best tracks (Dover and Martinsivlle),. then how can we trust him at Texas? I cannot trust him, but if you are considering then it worth it a shot. He stats here are very impressive! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 6.8 average finish, 6.8 average start, 8.8 average running position and 118.9 driver rating. Outside of his 25th place finish last spring after getting damage from teammate Dale Jr, he been pretty much a class of his own. Only 5 other races since he made his debut have he finished worse than 10th place. Seriously! In fact, he have won 4 of the previous 6 races held at Texas Motor Speed. More bad news? He have won the past three fall races! If I had any hope at all that Johnson was going to be a great fantasy option this week, I would be putting a lot of faith in trends.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr is still alive in the championship hunt and could sneak into the final 4 at Homestead without anyone really knowing it. He will have a tall order though. I think he have to be perfect these next two races, given he does not go to victory. Earlier this season, he finished 9th. He had a top 10 car for that event. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 12.4 average finish, 12.2 average start, 10.8 average running position and 95.8 driver rating. Texas is one of his best racetracks on the schedule and I wouldn't be shocked if he went to victory this week. From 2011 to 2013 (4 races), he had his best stench of races at this track. In that 4 race span, he finished 13th or better in 4 straight races. Including 3 top 8 finishes in that span. Truex have been one of the strongest drivers during the chase on the 1.5 mile racetracks and should keep things rolling this week. If you are playing Yahoo Fantasy Racing this week, I think you should be prepared to use a start with Martin Truex Jr. Given you have any left.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr enters Texas with nothing to lose after being eliminated from the chase after Talladega. I have no problem with that, as it probably makes it easier for him anyhow. For us fantasy players that is a good things. See last week at Martinsville where he finished 3rd. Earlier this season at Texas he finished 3rd in that race. He was far from the best car in that race, but he was easily top 10 driver though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 16.6 average finish, 13.8 average start, 16.6 average running position and 89.5 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have 3 Top 5 finishes. His other two finishes? 43rd and 29th. Last time Dale Jr finsihed worse than 7th in the fall was 2010. In fact, he have back-to-back top 3 finishes in the fall race at Texas! Dale Jr started the season very well on the 1.5 mile racetracks, but lately he been pretty meh to me. Headed into the weekend, I don't think he holds enough fantasy value to be considered as a legit option. However I could get behind him if he shows me something in final practice though.
****All Stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
