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1-Jamie Mac: JMac is coming off his best finish of the season at Talladega and looks to pounce while the momentum is strong. He been very consistent this season in the teens in almost every single race. Usually he runs in the mid to high teens, but have easy potential to finish in the lower teens though. JMac isn't the flashy fantasy option, but he quietly get the job done on a weekly basis. He been okay at Kansas lately, but bad luck have been his theme though. Over the past 4 races at Kansas, he have compiled 24.3 average finish with 15.8 average running position and 83.8 driver rating. He had finishes of 13th and 20th last season which was a downgrade from what we saw in 2014. Yes, he had finishes of 39th and 25th in 2014. But he was impressive before finding back luck. In the spring event (night race), he was running top 5 before he slammed her into the wall. In the fall event, he was unbelievably strong. He passed more cars than anyone else probably. He led 27 laps early on, but had to charge through the field late (which wasn't too easy to do). But JMac did it with ease and made it up to the 4th position with about 5 laps left. He have another mechanical issue with his car. He been okay at the 1.5 mile track this season. He have compiled 16.7 average finish with 17.3 average running position and 70.3 driver rating. Again JMac isn't impressive with his overall performance, but he get the consistent results. I would expect him to finish somewhere around 15th place!
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off his 2nd win of the season and looks to get his 3rd on Saturday night. His first win at Las Vegas is important! Why? Vegas is the most similar racetrack to Kansas and he had the car to beat on the long run. He been very good at Kansas recently too. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.3 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 96.9 driver rating. Those stats are little misleading though. His 36th place finish in October 2014 really brings down his stats overall. Well least in a 4-race simple size it does. But overall, Brad K been very consistent at Kansas. Over the past 10 races, he have only once finished worse than 13th (and that was in October 2014 as I mentioned already). Last season, he posted finishes of 9th and 7th. Even though he was better than that in both races. He was very good last spring and probably was a top 5 driver. Another aspect I like about him at Kansas? He have started 6th or better in 5 straight races here. Including 4 of those 5 races inside the top 4 starting positions.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is off to a great start this season. He got into a slump in recent weeks, with no finishes better than 19th from Cali to Richmond. But he got back on track in Sunday's Talladega race. So can he make it back-to-back solid efforts? I think he very much can. And here's why? Dillon is a excellent driver on the 1.5 milers and he seems to only get better with experience. I mentioned this already this season, but his Crew Chief Slugger makes him a top 10 driver at this type racetrack. He was a stud here last October. He had a top 5 car before blowing a tire! I was very impressed by him overall in that event. Kansas have a few things in common with Michigan and Vegas as well. I have long considered Michigan one of Dillon's best track and last August, he was a absolute stud there while finishing inside the top 5. Kansas is basically a smaller version of Michigan. And Vegas also share a lot of similarities with Kansas. Both are 1.5 milers and both we don't see a lot of fall-off at. I am not gonna take past Kansas's races data into account for Dillon, because only race to me that is relevant is last October. Why? Slugger. He have had a major impact on Austin's surge over the past 30 or so races. Dillon have been strong this season on the 1.5 milers though. He have compiled 11.7 average finish with 13.0 average finish and 87.0 driver rating.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is a stud at Kansas and I don't think many people realize quite how good he been since joining SHR in 2014. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.0 average finish with 5.5 average finish and 122.3 driver rating. He been the 2nd-best driver to Joey Logano overall. But his numbers should be better than that though. He ran out of fuel last October, after putting himself in a huge hole to start the chase. He have posted 3 Top 2 finishes over the past 5 races. Great thing about that stat? 2 of those 3 top 2 finishes have came in the past two spring races at Kansas. He have finishes of 16th and 12th in the past two fall races. Harvick also been very good on the 1.5 milers this season. He have compiled 7.7 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. His performance on this type racetrack is only second to Jimmie Johnson, but he never seems to get the finishes he truly deserves though. On the most similar racetrack (Vegas), he was top 5 good. But I don't he was ever a race-winning threat.
5-Kasey Kahne: I believe Kahne and the 5 team is onto something in terms of speed, but for some reason I don't trust him. Big reason is this is a night race. All the practice data, we have to gather will be during the daylight hours. And what have Kahne's biggest issue been at HMS over the past few seasons? Falling behind with changes. With that said, teams will have to keep up with changes to stay in contention. At Texas, we saw the 5 team fall behind early with changes on the car. Before they hit on it late in the race. He been very good here at Kansas though. Over the past 4 races at Kansas, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 99.3 driver rating. Kahne have not had a bad race since joining HMS at Kansas honestly. He may have gotten a few questionable finishes, but not because of a poor race-performance though. In 8 Kansas races (since 2012) with HMS, he have finished 8th or better five times. Which means he have only had 3 finishes in that span outside of the top 10. Make things even better? He have managed 4 Top 4 finishes since the repave. He also have performed well on the 1.5 mile track this season. He have compiled 13.7 average finish with 16.7 average running position and 75.7 driver rating. Kahne is a top 15 driver headed into the weekend for me. He'll have top 10 upside, but he is far from a sure thing.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin have been pretty average this season, minus his strong run in the Daytona 500. Outside of that win, he have posted 16.5 average finish this season with only 4 Top 15 finishes. Hamlin was pretty inconsistent to the start the season last year as well, but he was able to turn it on in second half of the season. Only difference was that last season, JGR struggled in the first half of the year as whole. Not this season. So I am not sure what his problem is. He seems to be the slowest JGR car on a weekly basis. He have had a couple solid runs, but nothing that really stands out over his teammates. His numbers are okay at Kansas, but nothing too special. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 84.1 driver rating. He have posted two top 10 finishes over that 4-race span. But both of those results have came in the fall race. He finished 41st and 18th the past two seasons in the spring. He does have a win here from Spring 2012 race. But that was the final race on the old surface, before the repave was done. So not really liable data to look at.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr is on a tear (for him) to start the season. After 10 races, he have finished 16th or better in 6 of 10 races. He is having a season like Paul Menard have had the last couple years. They are very comparable with their numbers, except Stenhouse have a greater upside. Consistently finishing in the low to middle teen. That been Ricky's season so far overall. Is the most trusted driver or the flashy fantasy option? Nope, but he get the job done on a weekly basis. And Kansas have been one of his better venues the last couple seasons, when RFR was done on speed. Now that they have the speed, I fully expect Stenhouse to be a contender for a top 10. Much like Dillon earlier in this preview, I am just gonna throw out all previous stats. Only year that is useful is the 2013 season's data, but that was 3 seasons ago. So the relevancy isn't as appealing. Instead I would focus on this season's data. He been very good on the 1.5 milers this season. He have compiled 12.7 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 86.8 driver rating. He also have completed 84% of the laps inside the top 15. Which ranks him 10th in the series in that category. That put him ahead of guys like Keselwoski, Kenseth, Newman, Hamlin and Edwards. Stenhouse finished 12th back at Vegas for those that are wondering.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy have struggled for years at Kansas, but he have made great strides as of late at Kansas. He is on a 3-race Top 15 streak at this place! Including back-to-back Top 5 finishes. Rowdy is on a complete tear this season and I don't think he slows down anytime soon. Busch been very strong on the 1.5 milers this season. He have complied 2.7 average finish with 7.3 average running position and 108.0 driver rating. His performance numbers (Average Running position and Driver Rating) could be better, if he didn't start dead last at Atlanta. At Vegas, he seemed off to be all weekend long. But the 18 team got his car right where they wanted him at the end. But his car went away in the final laps and he finished 4th. That is a season-low on the 1.5 mile racetrack for the record. I just look at his past 5 races this season and this is his finishes: 1st, 1st, 38th, 2nd and 2nd. I personally don't think past stats means shit with Busch this season. He is on a mission and he can win on any given weekend.
19-Carl Edwards: After winning back-to-back races at Bristol and Richmond, Edwards hit a brick wall at Talladega. He now looks to rebound at Kansas. Great place to do it, too! He been strong here throughout his cup career and that won't change this weekend. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.8 average finish with 11.5 average running positon and 93.1 driver rating. He finished 20th last spring here, but that been his lone non-top 8 finish over the past two seasons. In 17 career starts, he have posted 12 Top 10 finishes with 6 Top 5 finishes. More recently (since the repave - 7 races), he have posted 4 Top 8 finishes (5 Top 14 finishes) in the last 7 races here. Edwards also have been very strong all season on the 1.5 milers. He have compiled 10.0 average finish with 8.7 average running positon and 100.8 driver rating. His numbers should be better than that (even though they are pretty good), as he was involved in a wreck at Las Vegas. He finished on the lead lap in that race, but he had damage that prevented him from contending for a top 10 finish in second half of the race. He was strong at both Atlanta and Texas. However both of those venues have a lot of fall-off, so the data there isn't quite as comparable as Vegas's data is.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is having such a terrible season, I don't think it possible for him to even a buy a finish at this rate. He will turn it around eventually, but damn this dude have some serious bad luck! Kansas always been a good spot for him and probably should have finished inside the top 2 last season here. But we all know what happened when Joey Logano got to Kenseth's bumper in the final laps. Still been a very solid track overall. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 10.8 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 98.3 driver rating. Kenseth is pretty much a machine here, with 11 straight Top 15 finishes overall. He have made 6 starts with JGR so far at Kansas. He dominated in his debut in 2013. As he led 163 of 267 laps from the pole for the win. Since he only posted 2 Top 10 finishes. But his other finishes have all been inside the top 14 though. So while the production isn't quite there, he still been very good. I like Kenseth, but I don't love him. Does he have the speed? You bet he does. Do I trust him? Heck no. I guess we will play the wait and see game with him.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney have developed a trend this season. It's a very interesting one at that, too. He have struggled with tire management in 2016. Racetracks that fall off a lot at, he have not finished better than 25th. Those tracks would be: Atlanta (25th), Richmond (28th), Texas (29th), and Cali (35th). Tracks that have little fall off at? He have not finished worse than 19th. I kid you not! Listen to these finishes: Las Vegas (6th), Talladega (9th), Phoenix (10th), Bristol (11th), Martinsville (19th) and Daytona (19th). Kansas is a lot like Vegas with a little fall off, so that should mix well for Blaney's fantasy value. He doesn't have a lot of experience at Kansas, but he does have two career starts here though. In those two races, he have posted finishes of 27th and 7th. In 2014, he finished 27th in the #12 car for Penske. He didn't have much experience at that point and time. Also feel like that #12 car wasn't prepared as well as the #21 car for the wood bros. As he wasn't running full-time schedule. So it would be less of a priority. However last season, he was very good at Kansas. He had one of his best races of his cup career there. He led 5 laps on his way to an impressive 7th place finish in the #21 car. There is a lot to like him this week. I have higher hopes for him than I have had at recent tracks.
22-Joey Logano: Logano seems to have a talent for pissing off Matt Kenseth, as the driver of 20 car didn't seem too happy with Logano after the Talladega race on Sunday. Will Kenseth try something at Kansas, where Logano dumped him last year? Maybe. But doubtful, least not yet anyhow. Logano have been very strong at Kansas recently. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 2.8 average finish with 4.5 average running position and 128.9 driver rating. Overall, Logano have 5 straight Top 5 finishes since October 2013. In that span of races, he have won twice. However both times it was in the fall. In fact, he have won the past two fall races here. But He also have finished 4th and 5th in the past two spring races. Nothing to shove to the side either. Before October 2013 and this hot streak of his, he have never finished better than 15th at Kansas. He also have been very strong this season on the 1.5 milers. He have compiled 5.7 average finish with 6.7 average running positon and 109.5 driver rating. It should be noted that Logano was very strong earlier this season at Vegas. He finished 3rd at Vegas and probably had the 2nd or maybe 3rd-best car overall on the long run.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott is having himself a very solid season and looks to contine it on Saturday night. I wouldn't be shocked to see him finish inside the top 5 once again. He doesn't have any data at Kansas, since he have never raced here at the Cup level before. However we do have 2016 data to fall back on. On 1.5 mile tracks this season, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 11.3 average running positon and 90.9 driver rating. His data is a bit deflated because of being caught up in a wreck at Las Vegas earlier this season. It should be noted that Chase was running top 10 before Kenseth spun in front of most of the field. If he avoided that wreck, I am pretty sure he would have finished top 10 easily. Be watching out for driver of the 24 car!
27-Paul Menard: Menard is off to pretty average start this season, I think I have mentioned this a few times already this season about him. I just haven't been impressed too much. Least not as much as I was expecting him too. Honestly RCR is a little off on the intermediate tracks, minus Austin Dillon of course. Menard have struggled this season to find his footing overall. Especially on the 1.5 milers. He have compiled 19.7 average finish with 21.7 average running position and 63.9 driver rating. I would give him a little break, if he ran better this season. But he haven't. Menard really haven't been too competitive all year. Vegas was his best performance among the 1.5 milers. And there he was only about 15th place car. He would flirt with a top 12 or so at times in that race, but more often than not he was hovering around that 15th place mark. Not much upside either, since he only have one top 10 on the season. He been good at Kansas though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.8 average finish with 15.8 average running position and 78.9 driver rating. Not great, but I have seen worse stats than that though. Since the repave, he have managed 4 Top 10 finishes in 7 races. Good, right? Okay, yes it is good. However 3 of his past 4 races here have ended in 17th, 18th and 19th. Those aren't bad numbers, but certainly think you could find a more reliable fantasy option though.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch have struggled here for years (much like brother Kyle have as well - until recently). I think Kurt can run well this weekend, but when I mean well I mean top 10 or top 15. Kurt just seems to be off this season overall. His top 5 speed from 2015, isn't there this season it seems. He been legitimately a top 10 driver on a weekly basis, but he cannot seem to get over the hump. His numbers at Kansas have seen solid improvements of late. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 21.3 average finish with 18.3 average running position and 80.8 driver rating. Those numbers are little misleading from a big picture standpoint. A couple poor finishes take away from Kurt's solid results. 3 of his past 5 races at Kansas have ended in 8th or better. Including finishes of 6th and 8th last season. I like seeing that type of improvements from a driver, and his numbers on the 1.5 milers aren't too bad either. This season on the 1.5 milers, he have compiled 7.3 average finish with 9.7 average running position and 96.6 driver rating. He have 3 Top 9 finishes on the year at the 1.5 milers. He finished 9th at Vegas after leading 31 laps from the pole.
42-Kyle Larson: I been pretty tough on the CGR cars this season, but I do think they are onto to something lately. They were complete shit back at Atlanta, but both of them showed big improvements at the latest 1.5 mile track of Texas. They both finished inside the top 15. That was great to see! I think they'll get better as the year goes on, and I think it will be more visible with Larson than JMac though. He haven't been too good overall on the 1.5 milers. He have compiled 24.7 average finish with 22.7 average running position and 58.8 driver rating. Really he only struggled at Atlanta. He was pretty pathetic in that race, I was not impressed at all. But at Las Vegas, he was running around 12th or so, before he was penalized and that sent his day south quickly. He wrecked a few times after that in mid-pack. After that race, Larson tweeted: ''I made too many mistakes today. Could have gotten a top 10 had things gone right but I choked too many times.'' He was good at Texas and finished 15th. Not great, but it was improvement from recent weeks. His Kansas's record isn't too bad. He have compiled 14.5 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 93.2 driver rating. Top 15 is where I am expecting him to finish on Saturday night.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is having a solid season so far and he been at his best on the intermediate racetracks this season! On intermediate racetracks (4 races), he have compiled 2.3 average finish with 5.5 average running positon and 120.9 driver rating. He been impressive on this type of track and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't win on Saturday night. He was very good at Vegas earlier this season. He probably had the car to beat on the short runs, but felt like the Penske cars were a little better on the long runs though. Regardless I expect great things from driver of the No.48 car! He been pretty good at Kansas in the past, too. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.3 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 91.2 driver rating. That doesn't even begain to tell how good Jimmie Johnson really been at Kansas. How good? How about 13 Top 9 finishes over the past 14 races at Kansas good? Yeah that sounds about right! In fact, he won this race last spring and finished 3rd in last fall's event. Johnson is heavily on my fantasy radar this week!
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr is one of those drivers who just seems to run well wherever we go, but then cannot find out how to finish. That been Truex's story in 2016. Consistency is running well, but he always seems to find himself in a situation that costs him a strong finish. Then again, that pretty much the tail of his cup career. He have ran very well at Kansas though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.3 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 97.8 driver rating. He been very good overall. He have 3 straight top 15 finishes. Including finishes of 9th and 4th in that 3-race span. Over the past 8 races, he have finished 9th or better in 5 of those races. Including 4 Top 4 finishes. His most recent one came in October 2014. Truex have ran well this season on the 1.5 milers, too. He have compiled 8.0 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 112.7 driver rating. I think he have performed much better on the worn-out surfaces of Atlanta and Texas. He was solid at Las Vegas, but not at the same magnitude though. In that Vegas race, he started 10th, finished 11th, posted 12.0 average running positon and 88.9 driver rating. Honestly not sure what happened to him in that race. He was charging towards the lead at one point and then bang he fell out of contention just like that. I think Truex will have a very good run this weekend with top 5 potential, but he more of a top 10 to top 15 driver because of his inconsistency.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is coming off another disappointing plate race (we all saw that coming ,right)! I was very disappointed by that outcome by the 88 team, but I am sure he will easily rebound at Kansas. This haven't been the greatest track for him, however Dale have been running very well this season. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 93.6 driver rating. He been much better in the spring time than fall. Over the past 2 seasons (4 races), he have managed 2 Top 5 finishes. They both have came in the past two spring races. His finishes in the fall? 39th and 21st. Overall, he have managed 3 Top 8 finishes over his past 5 races at Kansas. Including 4 of the past 7 ending inside the top 8 here. He also have ran very well this season on the 1.5 milers. He have compiled 4.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. He been a solid top 10 driver on most weekend before the checkers waved. He doesn't always look it in practice, but that 88 team seems to always make the right changes for him on raceday. I view him as a top 10 driver headed into the race!
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
