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1-JMac: The No.1 team have struggled all season long to find speed and he been arguably at his worst on the intermediate racetracks this season. It seems like the Gannasi program still have some work to do, before JMac is a quality top 15 option. So don't expect me to have high expectations for him, but that shouldn't surprise anyone who have checked out my Previews this season. He have been outright terrible in his two most recent attempts on this type of track. At Kansas and Charlotte, he just bad. Never even reached the top 15 mark in the 600. He performed a little better at Kansas, but his pit crew pretty much destroyed his day after the first pit stop. Prior to that major miscue, he wasn't really super competitive. Probably top 20 good at that point, and he may have sneak out an top 15 finish if things went more his way. On intermediate racetracks this season, he have compiled 17.5 average finish with 19.8 average running position and 66.8 driver rating. Of those 6 Intermediate tracks, I view two of them the most relevant though. Kansas and Cali. Cali is considered Michigan's sister track. Both CGR cars were awful and weren't even top 20 cars in my opinion. Then Kansas, well I explained what happened to him there. With poor outing at those two tracks, he does have a pretty consistent track record at Michigan. Over the past 8 races at Michigan, he have finished 16th or better in 6 of those 8 races. JMac displayed the consistency lately at Michigan no doubt, but like so many other weeks I don't really trust him to deliver a quality top 15 finish. Honestly I think current season's data is more important than past season data, hence why I am low on JMac this week.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski have been among the best in the series recently at Michigan and his numbers this season only helps his case. Keselowski isn't the most flashy fantasy option, but he seems to get the results at end of the day. Add-in, Penske is starting to find some more speed and you get something awesome. He been very consistent on the intermediate tracks this season. He have compiled 8.7 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 97.5 driver rating. Only once have he finished outside of the top 10 and that was at Texas. Not only have Brad been a consistent/strong driver this season, but he also have some success at Michigan as well. He enter this weekend with 9 straight Top 13 finishes at MIS. Not only does he have 9 straight top 13 finishes, but he is currently riding an 4-race Top 9 streak at this track. When you add all of this up, you pretty much get an top 5 fantasy option. Keselowski in my opinion is very underrated here and typically doesn't get the respect he deserves.
3-Austin Dillon: Two things you need to know about Austin Dillon for this weekend: 1) He been a solid driver on the intermediate tracks. 2.) Michigan is Austin's favorite racetrack and he been on the record in the past of saying that. He loves Michigan, it is big and it is fast! He also been on the record of saying he loves big and fast tracks. Well, Michigan definitely fits the description. So it shouldn't be shocking that he was so impressive last August. He just wasn't impressive, but unbelievable. He qualified up front in the 4th position. Then he had to start in the rear, in a race that didn't see many caution fly. He was able to easily drive up into the top 5 without much difficulty in my opinion. In fact, that performance last August remains his best-ever race in the Sprint Cup Series. He led 12 laps that afternoon and posted 112.0 driver rating. That driver rating is even more impressive because how far back he started. He have he faired well this season on the intermediate tracks though. He have compiled 12.8 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 84.2 driver rating. His average finish should be even better, but his pit gun broke on the final pit stop at Cali. Which meant, not all of the lugnuts could be put on. He ran top 12 prior to that and was inside the top 10 before that happened, he finished outside of the top 20 for the event. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 option with the upside to come away with a top 10 finish.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick have been awesome this season on the intermediate and he been even better at Michigan recently. He haven't been quite as good as he been the last couple years, but Kevin is still one of the top drivers in the top. We haven't seen him go out and dominate like he did early in the year at a couple of the 1.5 milers. But he still been awesome and his numbers are pretty strong. But they been a little off in regards to the bar Kevin Harvick have set in his first two seasons at SHR. On intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 4.8 average finish with 5.5 average running position and 118.3 driver rating. Again very impressive numbers! So how have he done recently at Michigan? How about, Five (5) 2nd place finish in his past 6 races? Yeah that sounds about right. His lone non-top 2 finish? Last June, where he finished 29th. However he was dominated on that day and was in his own zip code from drop of the green. However in that rain-shortened race, he had a tire go down right after the final round of green-flag pit stops. The race was called not too much after that happened. So his chances of making it up was extremely slim! Another thing to like about Kevin at Michigan since joining SHR? He have never finished started outside of the top 7, which have translated into strong finishes. Harvick have to get another win sometime, right? I think it could come this weekend at Michigan! He is one of the odds-on favorite in my eyes!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne have been the weakest driver in the HMS stable this season (to nobody surprise) and Kasey's biggest struggle have been to build any consistency. However, recently he have found something to his liking. He have finished 3 of the past 6 Sprint Cup races inside the top 10 and will look to build on recent success. His Michigan numbers actually are pretty strong overall when looking at it. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.8 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 86.3 driver rating. Since joining HMS (in 2012), he have finished 16th or better in 6 of those 8 races. And the two races, he did finished poorly was back in June 2012 and June 2014. Kasey is currently on a 5-race Top 16 streak at Michigan. With 2 Top 10 finishes in that 5-race span. However his past three finishes are resulted in either 15th or 16th place. That's not great, but it isn't bad either. Especially since Kasey have struggled in the past with developing any type of consistency. How have Kasey done this season on the intermediate tracks? Well, he have compiled 17.8 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 66.4 driver rating. Honestly, I cannot think of one race on this type of track that he have had a legit top 10 performance. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 though.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin have been up and down all season long, it seems like he is the overall weak link in the JGR organization right now at the Cup level. Good thing he has the win (at Daytona), because he may not get another win before the chase. Sure it is possible, but he doesn't seem to have enough of speed to run up inside the top 10 for a full-race in my opinion. He been okay at Michigan lately. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 15.8 average running position and 85.2 driver rating. He is currently riding an 3-race Top 11 streak at Michigan. But he have finished 5 of the past 9 Michigan races in 20th or worse. His best finish since 2012 have been 5th place and that was last August. Before this 9-race span, he was on a hot streak from June 2009 to June 2011 (5 races). In that 5-race span, he compiled 4 Top 3 finishes (including 2 victories and an runner-up finish). Since his numbers have regressed, but seems to be on the rise again. He certainly could have another top 10 or top 12 finish at Michigan. But he haven't faired too well in the consistently department in 2016 though. On the intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 15.2 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 85.6 driver rating. In only half (3) of the races on intermediate tracks have Hamlin finished inside the top 15. The other half have resulted in 16th or worse. However, only once have he failed to finish inside the top 20. So while he haven't gone completely off the deep end, he haven't been a top 10 finisher consistently like we expect from a driver with JGR equipment.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse is quietly having a pretty solid season for RFR and that should continue at Michigan. Stenhouse have been a top 15 driver all year long on the intermediate tracks! He have compiled 11.8 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 85.7 driver rating. That is not even mentioning his 9.8 average starting position or completing 84% of the laps inside the top 15. Across the board, his numbers are pretty much rock-solid! He doesn't do anything real special, but he been consistent. I think that what is most appealing to me honestly. His numbers at Michigan could use some work though. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, he have compiled 23.3 average finish with 25.2 average running position and 59.2 driver rating. With that said, judging Stenhouse by past stats is a terrible route to go when looking at stats. Almost any track, we go to Ricky will have ugly stats. But he have proven that he is very capable of finishing in the low to middle teens on a regular basis. I think that hold more true on the intermediate tracks than any other type of track, too. Headed into the weekend, he is a top 15 driver in my opinion.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is coming off another tough finish at Pocono and will try to rebound this weekend. Michigan haven't been the kindest to Rowdy over the years, but he been a stud all year long on the intermediate tracks. He have struggled in recent years here at Michigan. As over the past 4 races at MIS, he have compiled 33.5 average finish with 27.8 average running position and 67.8 driver rating. Prior to finishing 11th last August, Rowdy have posted 3 straight finishes of 39th-43rd place. Yeah that is pretty ugly! But he been better this season on the intermediate tracks. In 6 races, he have compiled 11.2 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 103.0 driver rating. Very good numbers and he have scored two wins this season on this type of racetrack. Sure cannot simply disregard his recent poor track record at Michigan, but I put more into current season data than track history. At the very least, Kyle is a top 10 fantasy option headed into the weekend!
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off top 10 run at Pocono, where he wasn't ever a true contender but he stayed inside the top 10 most of the day. He now goes to a track that he have found plenty of success at. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, he have compiled 16.0 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 86.2 driver rating. He had finishes of 12th and 4th at Michigan and have an average finish better than 10th place for his career at this track. He doesn't hurt that, Edwards have ran very well on the intermediate tracks this season. He have compiled 11.0 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 98.6 driver rating. He have ran well, but he have had a couple misleading finishes outside of the top 10 that would've improved his overall numbers. Edwards was very happy when Nascar announced that they would be using a new package at Michigan, he said something like Christmas came early for him. Edwards should be very much in it this weekend, if he unloads a fast car then you can pretty much expect a great weekend for him. He is a top 10 driver headed into the weekend and will likely have something for the top 5 as well.
20-Matt Kenseth: Some performances just stand out and that definitely hold true in last August race from Matt Kenseth. He was dominated from the pole and nobody could really touch him that afternoon. I highly doubt that Kenseth will display that sort of dominances again, but it wouldn't shock me to see him contend for a top 5 finish. Especially since he have had a lot of success here over the years. Over the past 4 Michigan races, he have compiled 14.3 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 97.6 driver rating. He been very good since joining JGR (like he was at RFR), as he have posted 5 Top 15 finishes in 6 starts. In those 6 starts, three times he have finished 6th or better. Including finishes of 4th and 1st last season at Michigan. In 33 career starts at Michigan, Kenseth have compiled 10.2 average finish with 3 wins and 14 Top 5 finishes. Among active drivers, he is ranked 2nd in average finish (to Edwards), leads the series in Top 5 finishes and tied for the best in the series in Top 10 finishes (Smoke also have 20 Top 10s). Kenseth also seems to be onto something of late on the intermediate tracks (finish wise). He finished 4th at Kansas and 4th at Charlotte. In intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 16.2 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 100.9 driver rating. He had some misleading finishes that drag down his numbers, he been a contender every time we go to the track. Kenseth have finished 11th or better in 6 of his past 8 races this season. Including 4 straight Top 7 finishes, after finishing a misleading 7th place at Pocono.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney have performed and finished his best this season when tire management does not come into play. On his last 4 races on tracks as such? He have finished inside the top 10 every single time. At Michigan, we won't have to worry about tire wear so I feel pretty good about Ryan's chances. I think that fact that he is aligned with Penske, only makes him even better of a fantasy option. I think Blaney could have a really solid run at Michigan. One of the biggest reasons is because how he ran at Kansas about one month ago. I think that is one of the more similar racetrack on the schedule to Michigan. So that definitely helps when it comes to Blaney. How have he done in general on the intermediate tracks this season? He have compiled 20.0 average finish with 14.5 average finish and 78.6 driver rating. Some misleading races in that pile of data, but really the only race I find relevant is Kansas. It also should be noted that he ran extremely well at Vegas and finished 6th back in March. Why is that important? Like Kansas and Michigan, we don't see a lot of tire wear.
22-Joey Logano: The Penske cars have found something recently and Joey Logano is getting closer to his first win of the season. Logano have been rock-solid on the intermediate tracks all season long. He have compiled 11.3 average finish with 7.2 average running position and 104.7 driver rating. He was very strong back at Kansas and top 10 good for that event and proably could've finish inside the top 5. However Denny Hamlin daredevil move that fail, pretty much ended any chance of that happening. That doesn't change the fact that Logano have had speed all season on this type of racetrack. He also have an impressive Michigan record since the repave. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 6.0 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 113.3 driver rating. He been a stud at Michigan since joining Penske in 2013. In fact, he have never finished outside of the top 9 in the #22 car. However he does have better finishes in the August races than the June races. But not like that really matters, since he have gotten nothing but top 10 finishes. Joey is a legit contender for Sunday's race and is one of the favorites in my opinion.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott just keep getting better and better, soon he will be in victory lane. I thought there for awhile that he would be going to victory lane at Pocono. But that didn't quite workout, so his will now try to get his first career win this weekend at Michigan. I personally don't think it will happen, but I won't be shocked by another top 5 or top 10 run. In fact, I would be disappointed if he didn't. He been very good this season on the intermediate tracks. He have compiled 12.3 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 91.0 driver rating. Minus Atlanta earlier this season, he been pretty much flawless on this type of racetrack and should only get better as the season progresses. I have very high hopes for Elliott this weekend at Michigan!
31-Ryan Newman: Newman had a pretty packed full-drama day at Pocono on Monday. First he got into Joey Logano and then he got into Kyle Busch (which led to Busch's departure from the race). However despite those incidents, Newman still managed an 12th place finish at one of his better racetracks. Guess what? He now goes to another solid racetrack in Michigan. Not quite the same record as Pocono, but still pretty good overall. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 85.5 driver rating. He have finished 18th or better in 10 straight races at Michigan. Including 3 Top 15 finishes in 4 races, since joining RCR in 2014. Newman consistency is what gives him fantasy value and to nobody surprise, he have been pretty consistent all season in the lower teens. He have been good on the intermediate tracks in 2016. As he have compiled 14.2 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 12 to top 14 driver. On most weekends, Newman will qualify decently and finish somewhere between 8th-14th place. That what I am expecting from him at Michigan.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch is coming off an win at Pocono and now will have a chance to tackle one of his worst tracks on the schedule. Michigan have long been known to be one of Kurt's weak tracks. Despite 3 wins in 30 career starts, he have only managed 16 Top 20 finishes in those 30 starts. Not to mentioin, he also have 8 DNFs. Eight DNFs! No other track does he have more at. For a comparison, he have 8 combined DNFs at Daytona and Talladega. With that said, his last DNF was in 2012. But that doesn't mean his finishes have been much better since then though. Over the past 6 races at Michigan, he have posted 4 finishes outside of the top 12 (including 3 of 20th or worse). His other two results? 1st and 3rd. His win coming last June. It should be noted that Kurt didn't have the best car last June, his teammate Kevin Harvick did. Kurt this season (I believe) is a much better driver. He is not going up there and leading a ton of laps every week, but he is getting solid finishes with ease. He have 8 straight top 10 finishes now. His numbers on the intermediate tracks are pretty good, too. He have compiled 10.2 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 90.2 driver rating. So he doesn't stand out, but he has 5 Top 10 finishes in 6 races on this type of track in 2016. Busch will have a shot at least the top 10 this weekend.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson probably had about an 10th place car at Pocono and finished 11th. Not too bad for him. He could be in for a better weekend at Michigan though. I feel like this new package will benefit him and Michigan been a pretty good place for him so far in his cup career. Over his first 4 career starts here, he have compiled 20.3 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 78.9 driver rating. That data is misleading, since he finished 43rd in his rookie year here. If we take out that race, his numbers would be: 12.7 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 87.4 driver rating. It should be noted that Larson probably had about an 9th or 10th place car last June, before having to pit from the lead just laps before the rain came. He finished 17th in that race, but he was top 10 good for the event though. Larson also have showed great improvements the last couple intermediate tracks. He finished top 15 at Texas, but then really made strides at Kansas. He had top 5 potential in that race, but got involved in multiple wrecks. First with Hamlin and Logano, but his team fixed his car. But it wasn't enough because he slammed the car not much longer after that. I would say there a very high chance that the damage of car was the cause of that. Then few weeks ago at Charlotte, he was strong again. However he faded as his car went away in the final 100 laps. Before that Larson really competitive inside the top 5 much of the night. Larson should be a top 10 driver headed into the weekend in my opinion.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson had a tough ending at Pocono, but he will try to put it behind him and focus on Michigan. However this haven't exactly been his best racetrack though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 92.7 driver rating. I consider Michigan as a struggling track for Johnson, because typically he have impressive stats at most tracks, with amount of success he have had over the years. But Michigan stands out as one of the venues he haven't exactly set the world on fire. Over his past 15 races here, he have only managed 5 Top 10 finishes. That is a pretty low number for him (imo). More recently, Johnson have posted only 2 Top 10 finishes over his past 7 races. However one of those have resulted in wins, back in June 2014. If you are looking for encouraging news, Johnson have been one of the best drivers on the intermediate tracks. He have compiled 4.8 average finish with 6.2 average running positon and 115.3 driver rating. There never a downside to picking Johnson, but I feel like he has better tracks up ahead of him though.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Man was that a ugly race at Pocono for Martin Truex Jr! First, he get damaged on pit road. Then, he has a tire go down in middle of a green flag run (right when green flag pit stops starting though). To make matters worse, he get another flat tire under yellow that requires him to pit again later in the race. Honestly after getting that damage on pit road, I felt like his day was toast anyhow. Just no speed in that car to do anything with. Even prior to that, he wasn't anything better than top 10 or top 15 car. So now, we move onto Michigan. Luckily for Truex, he have been a bullet on this type of track in 2016. On intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 11.8 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 119.6 driver rating. Honestly I feel like his past couple intermediate tracks, the 78 team have tried extra hard to give Truex a super fast car to lock him into the chase. I wonder, if they will put quite as much effort into his ride this weekend at Michigan. It wouldn't surprise me if they did, but then again would it even matter with his luck? Based on what I know, I would say Truex is one of the favorites headed into the weekend. Especially since he have dominated the past three intermediate tracks this season. Hard seeing that suddenly changing out of the blue.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr had one of his best races of the season at Pocono and now looks to have another at Michigan. This have always seemed to be a pretty good place for Dale and I think some people have forgotten about that. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 6.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 105.8 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he have finished inside the top 10 in every race. Not only that, but he have overall posted 9 Top 10 finishes in 16 races (since joining HMS in 2008). Including 6 Top 10 finishes over his past 8 races at Michigan. 4 of those 6 Top 10 finishes have resulted in top 5 finishes. So there no doubt that Dale Jr have been very good at Michigan recently. He been pretty good on the intermediate tracks this season as well. He have compiled 8.7 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 91.6 driver rating. I think Dale start turning his season around over the next couple weeks with some great tracks on tap, starting with this weekend.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
