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1-JMac: JMac have quietly knocked off 3 Top 10 finishes over his past 5 races and the two races, he didn't was at Sonoma and Daytona. Those two tracks are wildcards though. I believe JMac will forever live off his 2010 season that was capped off by him winning at the Brickyard. That race just might defend his career as one of his biggest victories (minus winning the Daytona 500 of course). But he haven't been that good at all since 2010 win here. Over the past 2 seasons at Indy, he have compiled 18.0 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 73.9 driver rating. Not great numbers, but not terrible numbers either. He won in 2010 at Indy as I mentioned and followed that up with an solid 4th-place finish (he wasn't nearly that good though). Since? 4 straight finishes of 15th place of worse. With that said, he have finished between 15th-20th place in the last three Indy races since the 2013 season. Back at Pocono, JMac finished 17th and was just a litter better than that. I would say, he had about an 15th place or so car. By looking at recent Indy numbers and how he raced earlier this season at Pocono, there really isn't a lot to get excited about. However, he have ran quite well over his past two Sprint Cup races. Track position was key aspects of those races, but still he have been more competitive. I think, JMac will be a solid top 15 fantasy option headed into practice.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keslowski is having a fine season is currently on a 11-race Top 15 finish streak that includes 3 Wins and 6 Top 5 finishes (8 Top 10s overall). In fact, Keselowski have either finished 15th or 1st in his past 4 Sprint Cup races. His numbers look like this: 15th, 1st, 1st, and 15th. If that trends continues, he should return to victory. I personally don't think that trend will hold true, since it so small but you never know though. At Indy, Brad Keselowski haven't bad but he haven't had a breakout race yet either. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 14.5 average finish and 94.1 driver rating. So far in the #2 car at Indy, he have finished 4 of his last 5 races here in 9th-12th place. His lone non-top 12 finish was in 2013. Keselowski also have led least 5 laps in 4 of those 5 races, only race he failed to lead was in 2014 where he finished 12th place. When looking his numbers, something pops out to me. More specially, 4 of 6 races for Brad at Indy, he have started inside the top 12. Yet, only one of those races have ended inside the top 10. In the other two races, he have started 31st and 22nd. Both of those races have ended inside the top 10. Just found that interesting. Also it is worth noting that, Brad started 31st in last season's race and led 17 laps on his way to an 10th place finish. While putting up his best ''overall performance'' to date based off in-race numbers. That fact that he started so deep and did that, tells me he is getting closer to having that breakout race. He was pretty good back at Pocono, too. He started from the pole and finished 3rd. His performance numbers on that day wasn't quite as strong as some other drivers, but I will blame that on a pit road penalty.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is having a pretty good season and is now coming off another quality race that put him closer to making the chase. At this rate, I don't think he will fall enough to miss the chase. Along as, he keep doin what he's doing right now. He has now finished 5 of the last 7 Sprint Cup races inside the top 16. I wouldn't call Dillon a great flat-track racer, but he still developing. He haven't been bad at Indy so far, but I wouldn't call him great either yet though. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 17.5 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 74.9 driver rating. He finished 26th place in his debut in the #33 car in 2013, but remember that was before he got to being a full-time Cup driver. In 2014, he made his debut at Indy in the #3 car and impressively finished 10th place and was really good that day. Started 17th, finished 10th and posted 89.2 driver rating and completed 71% of the last inside the top 15. In last season's race, he definitely went in the wrong direction in terms of performance at Indy. He started 25th, finished 25th, and posted 60.0 driver rating and had 26.0 average running position. He spent about 19% of that race inside the top 15, which translates out to about 30 laps. Earlier this season at Pocono, Dillon finished 37th place after wrecking. He wasn't really that competitive up to wrecking though. Still probably would've least finished inside the top 20 though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is having a pretty good season, but a bad pit stops and lack of luck have kept him out of victory lane this season on quite a few times. But regardless of that, Harvick is bad fast week in and week out. That will be the case at Indy this week. He was close to dominated last season here. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 5.5 average finish with 4.5 average running position and 125.1 driver rating. In last season's race, he had the best car and probably should have gone to victory lane. However, he didn't nail the restarts like he should've and had to settle for 3rd place. If we didn't get any late cautions in that race, I can promise you that he would've won. In 2014, he started on the pole but only led 15 laps onto 8th place finish. He was better than that though. He had a top 5 car for that event. Over the past 7 races at Indy, he have finished 8th or better in 4 of 7 races. 7 of the last 10 overall have ended inside the top 11, if you are looking deeper into the data pool. Harvick also tested here at Indy not too long ago, which should give him an advantage on the competition and a driver like Kevin doesn't ever need to get a leg on the comp. More times than not, it leads to great results for him. I really like Kevin Harvick headed into practice and he is my pick to win on Sunday. The 4 car should be heavily on your fantasy radar!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne looked good all weekend at New Hampshire and was running inside the top 15 all day long. Fast-forwards to 20 laps to go and then all hell broke loose. As you would guess, Kasey Kahne finds a way to take a pretty good car and turn it into an 25th place finish. That's classic Kasey Kahne for though. Indy been a good place for Hendrick Motorsports though. Over the past two seasons here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 101.6 driver rating. He had the car to beat in 2014, but I think HMS was super motivated to give Kasey's the best car that weekend, so he had a good shot at making the chase. He led 70 laps that day, on his way to 6th place finish. If it wasn't for the late caution, I think he would've gone to victory. Last season, he struggled though. He finished 24th place and really never had anything better than 17th or 18th place car honestly. However before that poor finish, he had 3 straight Top 12 finishes since joining HMS. Kahne finished 6th place back at Pocono, but he more of a top 15 driver than top 10 driver though. Like most weekend, I expect him to contend mainly in the low to maybe middle teens. If he looks fast in practice, then his ceiling will probably increase to top 10 upside.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is coming off one of his best races of the 2016 season at New Hampshire, and actually been pretty good at Indy over the past couple years. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 4.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. Honestly, Hamlin have been pretty inconsistent over the past 6 races at Indy. He has 3 finishes of 15th or worse. But on the plus side, he has 3 finishes of 6th or better. Even better? All three finishes have came within his past 4 races at this 2.5 mile track. Including back-to-back top 5 finishes. I will be honest, I don't even the 2013 race as a relevant race. That was a whacky year for Hamlin. He had to sit out several races that year and when he came back, he was never quite the same driver. His performance was considerably off, so in reality he has three straight Top 6 finishes at Indy. But whatever, my point still stands that Hamlin is a pretty underrated driver here. He finished 14th back at Pocono and ran around that place range for that event as well. Headed into the weekend, I view Hamlin as a top 10 driver overall.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Despite RFR's struggles last weekend at New Hampshire, they were able to place to cars inside the top 10 in the end. That's pretty impressive, even though they didn't deserve those finishes. So Stenhouse now have 2 Top 10 finishes in the past 5 Sprint Cup Races. But he also have wrecked out twice in the past 5 races. Honestly, I believe Stenhouse's best performances this season are mainly behind him at this point. He started the season off very strongly, especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. But now he is becoming more inconsistent as the season progresses. I think my fellow Fantasy Nascar writer Garry Briggs described him as having a very like-2013-2015 Paul Menard season. Which is kind of spot on, when you think about it. Under the radar, good on the intermediate tracks, consistent to start the season. Then the production start to drop at start of June. Pretty much fitting Stenhouse 2016 season to a tee! Stenhouse have struggled on the larger-flats in his career. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 29.5 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 54.0 driver rating. Stenhouse just haven't been bad, he have been terrible in 3 career races. His career high finish is 24th-place and have not posted a driver above 58.2. Worst yet? That driver rating have dropped in every start. Last season, he held 53.8 driver rating. Anything below 70 is very poor and realistically that is still pretty bad. I can understand one poor race, but not three of them. He have similar results at Pocono, however he did finished inside the top 15 earlier this season. Should be noted, he had nothing more than top 25 car and only spent about final 20% of the race inside the top 15. Otherwise, he was mired back in the low to middle 20s for most that event.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is coming off strong New Hampshire showing, where he led the most laps and should have finished inside the top 5. But he had to settle for an 8th place finish, after some late cautions. It safe to say that Rowdy is back into championship form and knocking off top-tier performances again. He been the best driver in the series for awhile now at Indy. He doesn't always have the car to beat, but he been the one driver who get good finishes, no matter what. In fact, he have a series-high 6 straight top 10 finishes at Indy. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 1.5 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 124.1 driver rating. He didn't have the best car last season, but he was probably the 2nd-best or at worst 3rd-best. Harvick slipping late in the race, allowed him to take advantage. Overall, he have finished inside the top 2 in 3 of the last 4 Indy races. In 11 career races at Indy, he have finished 8 of those races inside the top 10. His lone two non-top 10 finishes were in 2008 and 2009. 2008 was a whacky race, so I am not even going to consider it. He finished 38th in 2009, but that have been his finish outside of the top 10 though. Rowdy was top 10 good earlier this season at Pocono, until he got punted late in the race by Ryan Newman I believe. Which resulted him heading to the garage earlier than expected. Rowdy should be one of the first drivers you consider this week for Indy. He been that good!
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is having a pretty good season with JGR, but he coming off one of his worst performances of the season at New Hampshire. Not to say, he was terrible. But he didn't have a car better than 10th or 12th place much of the day. Late race incident with Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Kyle Larson only made his day much longer than it already was. He been good at Indy in the past though. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 14.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 97.8 driver rating. Edwards have finishes of 13th and 15th over the past two seasons. Last year in his debut at Indy with JGR, he wasn't bad. He started from the pole and led 20 laps and was on the boarder line of being top 5 good, before having to settle for an 13th place finish. In 11 career races at Indy, he have finished 7 of 11 races between 12th-18th place. It would be bold to think that he doesn't finishes inside the top 10, but history says the smart money is on a low to middle teen finish.
20-Matt Kenseth: In last week's preview, I said that Matt Kenseth could be the best kept secret at New Hampshire. Boy, do I hate when I am right and don't take my own advice. And guess what? He should be once again on your fantasy radar at Indy. He been very good here since joining JGR. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 5.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 102.4 driver raring. Kenseth have always been a stud at Indy though. Since the 2002 season (14 races), he have posted 10 Top 10 finishes (7 of 10 have ended inside the top 5) and 11 Top 12 finishes overall. Including 3 straight Top 7 finishes, dating back to his JGR debut in 2013. Kenseth also had one of the cars to beat at Pocono, but let the win slip away late in the event. He led 3rd-most laps, had the most fast laps and had a tied for 2nd-best average running position. On top of that, Kenseth tested here at Indy which only makes him a better fantasy option. He definitely someone who I would consider as a potential fantasy option.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney got back on track at New Hampshire with an solid 11th-place finish, but that was after an speed penalty at New Hampshire (again). Which makes his finish, that much more impressive. He having a fine season and will need to keep on having solid finishes to make the chase. If Dale Jr misses at Indy again, then he will have fight Trevor Bayne, Kasey Kahne and Kyle Larson for the final spot most likely. Him having good runs over the next 2 or 3 races will determine if the 21 team is running for the championship in 2016. He was very good here last season and finished 12th. And that was after, he started from 30th place. Blaney also had a chance to take part in testing here as well. Not only that, but he was pretty good at Pocono. He finished 10th that day, even though he was more of a teen-driver for much of that event. Headed into practice, I view Blaney as a low to middle teen driver with some obvious upside.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is coming off an 3rd-place finish at New Hampshire and will look to bulid momentum off of that. He have been good at Indy, since joining Penske. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 3.5 average finish with 7.0 average running position and 113.5 driver rating. He have finished 8th or better in every start since at being at Penske. In fact, he have improved in every start as well. In fact, he have finished 5 of his 7 career races inside the top 12. It is not uncommon for a driver to have a successful string of runs before finally breaking through to victory lane. Kyle Busch take that similar path, before he won last season. Logano could be the next driver who breakthrough at Indy. He also took part in a test session at Indy not too long ago. Headed into practice, I view Logano as a top 5 to 7 driver.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott have now posted back-to-back finishes outside of the top 30, during a slump of bad luck races. In fact, he have finished 4 straight races outside of the top 20. Which includes 3 finishes worse than 30th place. Question is when will he turn it around? Possibly this weekend at Indy. He finished 18th in the No.25 car in 2015 at Indy, but he wasn't really that competitive. He also didn't have much experience in a Cup car either. He now much better and been running very well this season. Earlier this season at Pocono, he was extremely strong and led 51 laps on his way to 4th-place finish. Chase really concerns with his bad streak of finishes, but it is hard to overlook what he has done as a rookie so far and what he did at Pocono. Fact remains that Chase is loaded with potential for this weekend. If he looks good in practice, then you can expect him to be a contender come Sunday afternoon.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman struggled at New Hampshire much more than I ever expected him to, but he still was able to squeeze out an solid 7th place finish. Even though, he didn't crack the top 20 until the lap 30 laps or so. Of course then he had that ''moment'' with just a handful laps to go, but it all worked out pretty well for Newman. He been good at Indy lately and is a former winner at his homestate racetrack. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 81.3 driver rating. He have finished 11th in both races since joining RCR. Overall, he has 5 straight Top 12 finishes at Indy. Earlier this season at Pocono, he finished 12th place and contended in that area for most of the event. Newman should be someone is a very safe bet as he usually is. Headed into practice, I view him as a top 12 or so driver with the upside to sneak away with an top 10 finish. He may not always has the fastest car in practice, but comes raceday he will be one of the few predictable finishers.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch for the second time in three races have failed to finish inside the top 10. He was running quite well at New Hampshire, until he got an flat tire and eventually finished 22nd place. Kurt will look at rebound at Indy, but truthfully he have better places left on the schedule. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 18.0 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 80.7 driver rating. He finished 8th in last season's race, but that is only one of 5 finishes that have ended inside the top 10 in 15 career starts. Overall, he have only two top 10 finishes at this track since the 2008 season. More concerning? He have finished 21st or worse in 5 of his past 8 races, dating back to the 2008 season. Also, he highest finish in that span is 8th place. That's also worrisome, as a driver of Kurt's talent and equipment should be able to finish higher than that. The other thing that stands out is, he have not posted a performance with a driver rating of 100.0 over the past 10 races at Indy. However, he was very strong at Pocono earlier this season. He actually won that race, while having the winning fuel-strategy. With that being said, results don't always translate from Pocono to Indy. Even though both are larger-flat tracks.
42-Kyle Larson: Remember earlier this season when Kyle Larson was one of the hottest drivers in the series from Dover to Daytona? Well that is nothing but a memory now for Larson and his fans as he have posted back-to-back lackluster results. To be honest, it almost like him and JMac switch roles. Earlier this season, it was JMac who had rotten luck while Larson had plenty of speed. Now they have opposite problems. JMac has more speed and Larson is the one struggling to find good finishes. Kind of funny when you think about it, isn't it? Anyways, Larson should be a good option at Indy though. Over the past two seasons here, he have compiled 8.0 average finish with 8.5 average running positon and 103.6 driver rating. He really haven't had a bad race at Indy yet. He also tested here recently, which should only help him have a leg up on the competition. Larson worries me some this week, but he also will be running on Saturday as well. So he will get some additional track time, which always seems to be helpful for him.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson's slump marches on and have now only posted two top 10 finishes since Bristol. That's 12 races, folks! Including 6 straight outside of the top 10, kind of reminds me of an a epic streak of bad finishes that Kasey Kahne had outside of the top 10 last season, around this same time. But that story is for another time though. Johnson was once a lock to finish up front at Indy, but that haven't been the case the past couple seasons. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 14.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 91.5 driver rating. Over the past 10 races at Indy, Johnson have been basically all or nothing. In that 10-race span, he have either been top 2 or outside of the top 10. As he have posted 4 wins and an 2nd place finish (2006,2008,2009,2012 and 2013), and 5 finishes of 14th place of worse. In fact, he have finished 4 of the past 6 races at Indy outside of the top 13. Honestly, I feel like Johnson have really fallen off at time of the year over the past two seasons. This season seems to be no different, as I predicted back in the off-season in the Jimmie Johnson Preview (click
here to view it). I am not very high this week on Johnson as I normally would be at Indy. He needs to earn my trust back, and he start by looking good in practice on Friday.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr isn't allowed to have nice things, is he? Guess not. He was arguably the 2nd or 3rd best driver at New Hampshire, before his day went to shit. He was really one of the few drivers who had anything for Kyle Busch in the early and middle stages of the race, which stood to me. Now, he goes to Indy looking for a rebound race. He been good at Indy. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 14.5 average finish with 14.0 average running positon and 85.1 driver rating. He have finished 3 of the past 4 races inside the top 11. He had his best race ever last season here and finished 4th. In that race, he was nothing more than 6th or 7th place driver but he took advantage of late race caution that moved him up the leaderboard. I do like him a lot this week though. Firstly, he tested here so that should give him a edge over the drivers who didn't get a chance to test. Also he been bad fast all season long, minus a couple short track races. Even with all of his bad luck this season, it hard to ignore that Truex is least a top 10 driver with major upside. He have to eventually get a finish that he deserves, right?
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
