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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: JMac may have just almost locked down his spot in the chase after Ryan Newman's big post-race inspection failure, after the Darlington race. Still waiting to see, if there is any penalties (I expect an 15-points penalty on Tuesday). If that is the case, then you would think JMac and the 1 team will try to get a solid top 15 finish on Saturday night. I personally don't see any reason why he shouldn't either. He been good this season on the shorter flats. In similar races on shorter flats (Richmond, Phoenix and New Hampshire), he have have compiled 12.7 average finish with 17.3 average running position and 75.7 driver rating. He haven't had any staggering speed in these races, but when it counted he have found ways to finish well inside the top 15. He also have found solid success at Richmond as well. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 11.2 average running position and 93.4 driver rating. Those numbers are pretty impressive and when you break his numbers down, they are probably even better. JMac have posted 6 straight Top 16 finishes at this track. Including 3 Top 4 finishes over that 4 race-span. He have started 27th and 31st in his past two Richmond races, yet he have posted finishes of 16th and 13th. Pretty good for qualifying so poorly. However, he arguably had his worst race-ever at Richmond since re-joining Chip Ganassi Racing back in April. He just wasn't competitive overall. A major asset for JMac at Richmond? Consistency. Over his past 12 races at this track, he have posted 10 Top 18 finishes. So only twice have he finished worse than 18th place. Pretty good, don't you think? Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 driver and that is pretty much it (in my opinion).
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski had a tough race at Darlington. He was suppose to be a heavy contender and he was until he had to pit for a loose wheel in middle of the race. And then again towards end of the race. Which meant, he spent good portion of the second half of the race, trying to catch back up to the leaders. He ended up 9th place. Not bad, considering all of the passing he had to do! How will he do at Richmond? Most likely very good. He have ran great on the shorter flats this season. But he haven't gotten the finishes, he have deserved though. On similar tracks, he have compiled 18.3 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 88.7 driver rating. His performance numbers shows you that he have much better than his 18.3 average finish suggests. Heck, he started 19th and finished 29th back at Phoenix. Still hold very respectable ARP and DR for season's stats on short flats. That alone should be a indicator he have performed very well. He also led laps in his previous two shorter flats races at New Hampshire (finished 15th - had top 5 car before incident) and Richmond (finished 11th - was pretty good overall; led 6 laps after starting 6th.) Brad also been very good at Richmond recently, too. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 8.2 average finish with 5.2 average running position and 116.8 driver rating. Over that 5-race span, he have posted 4 finishes of 11th or better. Including a dominating win here, just two years ago. He have finishes of 8th and 11th over his past two starts. His lone-top 11 finish was back in Spring 2014. He was top 5 strong, but he was down an cylinder though. So he couldn't get going on restarts, but after the restart he would be fine. A late (and rare) caution came out, and the 2 team made him pit. That's was race suicide for him. No way would he make up about 20 spots in just a few laps. He finished 17th on that day. I would say, he had the 3rd-best car behind Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick overall. It seems when Keselowski have incident-free races here, he is easily a top 5 fantasy pick. You can expect that to be the case on Saturday night as well.
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon surprised me with an 12th place finish at Darlington honestly, and he needed that run as well. Now he have some good breathing room entering Richmond. What can you expect from him this weekend? Well, he have performed pretty good on the shorter flats this season. In 3 races on shorter flats, he have compiled 14.0 average finish with 13.7 average running position and 82.1 driver rating. You know that actually come as a surprise, if I am being completely honestly. Entering the season, he performed better on intermediate tracks, plate tracks, large flats and short tracks. Than on the shorter flats (of Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire), but he been good this year as you can see. However, Richmond is considered one of his worst tracks though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 24.2 average finish with 20.4 average running position and 64.7 driver rating. So far in his career, Richmond is ranked as the 5th-worst racetrack. Also it is one of two racetracks (Dover) that he haven't finished better than 20th place. To say Dillon have underperformed at this venue is a understatement. The most similar racetrack to Richmond is Phoenix, for those who are wondering. He finished 9th earlier this season and 11th in last spring's race. So he found some success there, if you are looking similar venues. Personally I am not very high on Dillon. It been awhile since I been super high on Dillon, as he have really lost a lot of momentum (speed) from earlier in the year.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is having a great season and seemed to be cracking the whip of late. Won at Bristol, finished 5th at Michigan and should have won at Darlington. Now, he heads to Richmond. A track that he have won at twice since the start of the 2011 season. However, both times were when he was still with RCR though. The last time, coming in the 2013 season. He been very strong here with SHR though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 7.4 average finish with 5.2 average running position and 112.78 driver rating. Richmond is fairly similar to Phoenix, so to no surprise he have ran very well at RIR. How well? 7 Top 11 finishes over his past 8 races. Including 4 Top 5 finishes in that span. He always have ran well here, with 10.6 career average finish over 31 career races. He also have ran well this season on the shorter flats. On similar tracks in 2016, he have compiled 3.3 average finish with 4.7 average running position and 123.4 driver rating. He won back at Phoenix, after edging out a hard-charging Edwards. He then went to Richmond in April and finished a solid 5th place. He wasn't overly a stoodout, as Joe Gibbs Racing dominated much of that event. However, he led the next tier of drivers after Edwards and Busch. And followed that up with an 2nd place finish at New Hampshire most recently in July. So he been pretty darn good with 3 Top 5 finishes in 3 races this season. And with the way that the 4 car is running, he just may be the favorite to win on Saturday. My only concern? Can his pit crew get him to victory lane? There are a lot of long-green flag runs at Richmond, which means less restarts to bunch up the field. It will be quite difficult to gain spots back under green.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is coming off one of his best races of the season at Darlington, where he finished 7th place. He wasn't quite that strong the entire event, but his crew did a great job on adjusting later in the race and got him inside the top 10. And to my surprise, he was has been done very well this season on the shorter flats. In fact, I would describe his efforts this season as some of his best. On shorter flats this season, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 11.7 average running position and 85.1 driver rating. What stands out is his performance numbers are quite a bit higher than his average finish. Anytime, you get an misleading average finish, you get an chance to steal some fantasy value. As a lot of people don't really looked deeper into the data. He also been pretty good at Richmond as well. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.8 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 89.8 driver rating. He have finished 18th or better in every start since joining HMS. So 9 straight Top 18 finishes for the driver of the No.5 car. On top of that, he have finished 4th and 6th over his past 2 of 3 races at Richmond. Going deeper into the data pool, he have finished 14th or better in 4 of past 6 races. Headed into practice, I would view him as a top 15 fantasy pick.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hottest driver in the series right now? None other than Mr. Denny Hamlin. First half of the season, the 11 team struggled to find speed and finish out races. But no more of that form this raceteam. They are out running their Joe Gibbs Racing teammates on a weekly basis at the moment. Funny thing is, he did the exact same thing last year as well. He currently have 7 straight top 10 finishes have knocked off 4 Top 5 finishes in that span as well. He has the momentum and he also have a great track record as well. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.4 average finish with 12.6 average running position and 89.8 driver rating. He have been great here throughout his career. As he have posted an 10.5 career average finish in 20 career races, with 11 Top 10 finishes in those 20 career starts. Including currently back-to-back 6th place finishes. He struggled in 2013 and 2014 seasons at Richmond. But there is an easy explanation why though. In 2013, he got injured and was never the same driver again that season after he came back. And in 2014, he and his JGR teammates just were off for a good portion of the year. I believe that was last time Kyle Busch missed the chase as well. Further proof for the poorness of JGR in 2014. He also been very good on the shorter flats this season as well. On shorter flats this season, he have compiled 6.0 average finish with 8.7 average running position and 101.8 driver rating. As you can tell, he been one of the better drivers on this type of track in 2016. Headed into the race, I view Hamlin as a top 10 driver with clear upside to be a top 5 contender.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch is coming off another disappointing finish at Darlington and that makes three straight races with an top 10 finish. Prior to that, he was one of the hottest drivers in the Sprint Cup Series. We saw this at beginning of the summer, where Busch just doesn't seems to be quite as good. Looks like he will end like he started it. However, I do feel like Busch will be very strong at Richmond and going forward. The 18 team probably have been just trying some things out. To be fair, he spun out at Michigan and battling to get back on lead lap for the most of the race. And was pretty good at Darlington for awhile before fade late in the race. Regardless, I expect him and his JGR teammates to be very strong. They have been very impressive this season on this type of track and Busch have easily been one of the best. On similar tracks this season, he have compiled 4.7 average finish with 3.0 average running position and 126.0 driver rating. Busch easily had a top two car back at Richmond and would've won, if Edwards didn't move him out of the way on the final lap. He also been very good at Richmond throughout his Cup career. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 5.3 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 107.6 driver rating. In that span, he have posted 3 top 3 finishes in those 4 races. He been impressive in 22 career races at Richmond, too. In those 22 races, he have posted an impressive 6.8 average finish with 15 Top 5 finishes. Hard to overlook with Busch these type of stats.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off a bad Darlington race, where he didn't even finsih on the lead lap. After getting a flat tire on one of the final restarts. However, he will have a great chance to rebound at Richmond though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 12.4 average finish with 13.4 average running position and 92.7 driver rating. He have won twice in the past 6 races at this racetrack and won here back in April as well. He ran strong in last season's race here as well (in the fall) and finished 11th. But he much better than that. He was easily a top 10 driver, but got a misleading finish though. He been one of the best drivers on this type of track this season (to no surprise.) As on shorter flats this season, he have compiled 7.7 average finish with 5.0 running position and 119.1 driver rating. Impressive numbers since he ended up wrecking at New Hampshire and didn't really contend for a top 10 run. The real surprise about that race? In practice, his car looked dominant. Edwards said this was one of the best cars he have ever had. Started mid-pack and couldn't find a way to get to the front. Edwards should be a factor on Saturday night, especially if he starts up front.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth should be a heavy contender in Saturday's night race. He have been running quite well this season, after a sluggish start for the 20 team to the season. He have been good on the shorter flats though. On similar tracks this season, he have compiled 5.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 104.7 driver rating. He was specifically strong at the most recent short flat racetrack of New Hampshire. Not to mention, Kenseth dominated this race last season from the pole. I doubt we see that again. Regardless, he been pretty good at this place. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 12.2 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 105.4 driver rating. He been impressive over his past 8 starts at this track. As he have posted 7 top 7 finishes in that span. Including 3 straight Top 7 finishes. Headed into the weekend, Kenseth should be considered as least an top 10 fantasy option.
21-Ryan Blaney: My big concern about Blaney in my fantasy nascar update before Darlington? Blaney making a critical mistake that cost him a good finish, well that almost happened. I was actually surprised he was able to finish 13th place after being 2 laps down with only 60 laps to go. So how will he do at Richmond? Hard to say with his only race coming earlier this season at this track and he finished 29th. But he seems to do well on track that don't wore out quickly and Richmond would definitely qualify as that. The 21 car have had speed over the past 3 Sprint Cup Races and it hard to see the 21 team not trying everything they can to win on Saturday. I highly doubt we see them in victory lane, but I wouldn't be shocked by an top 10 finish out of them. However, I would lower my standards to top 15 though.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is coming off an solid Darlington race and will look to create some momentum entering the chase. He been good all season it seems, but he haven't dominated any races like we have seen last season. He been the best driver recently at Richmond though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 4.6 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 110.3 driver rating. He been awesome since joining Penske at Richmond. As he have posted 6 Top 8 finishes over his past 7 races overall. Including 3 Top 5 finishes over his past 5 races. Earlier this season, he probably had his worst race with Penske at Richmond, when he finished on the lead lap. Earlier this season, he finished 8th place and wasn't really much of a contender. I don't really love Logano this week. Why? Well, it seems like Logno fade and loses a lap early on the shorter tracks. I know that sounds weird, but go back and look at races of 1-mile or less. More often than not, the 22 car have faded into the 20s before having to fight his way back to the top 10. Now is that a fantasy pick you want? I don't know, if I would honestly.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott had a pretty good race at Darlington but faded in the final laps to finish 10th place. At one time, I really thought he was going to come away with another top 10 finish. However, it wasn't meant to be for him though. Still a very good weekend for the driver of the No.24 car. What to expect from him at Richmond? I am not really sure, but I have high hopes for him though. He been awesome here in the lower series and looked very good earlier this season. I wouldn't call it a top 5 event for him, but he was definitely capable of an top 10 run. However, he had to overcome pitting under green for an unscheduled stop. He did and finished 12th place. He finished 16th place here in Cup Series debut in the #25 car. Elliott have struggled to get good finishes this season the shorter flats. As on similar tracks, he have compiled 18.0 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 85.8 driver rating. Headed into practice on Friday, I would view him as a top 15 driver with strong upside to finish inside the top 10.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman will need a big points night on Saturday to launch back into the chase and him fail post-race inspection only further makes it more diffcult on him to make it. In my personal opinion, I think it almost impossible for him to gain 20-some points (assuming he get an 15 points penalty) on JMac. Unless he goes out and win or Chris Buescher chokes away the final chase spot. Even then, David Ragan would have to have a pretty good night as well. So how will Newman do at Richmond? I would say he is least a n top 15 threat. But knowing he needs to likely win to get in, I would say his team will gamble to get him closer to the front. He been very good at Richmond lately. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 13.2 average finish with 13.4 average running position and 86.5 driver rating. Newman have been very consistent here over the years. How consistent? How about 15 straight finishes of 20th or better, dating back to the 2009 season. Even better? Only twice in his Cup career have Newman finished worse than 20th place. Back times were when he was still with Penske in the #12 car. Over his past 6 races at this track, he have posted 4 top 11 finishes.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch had a tough night at Darlington and ended with his car being smashed after Paul Menard had a tire go down. Kurt Busch started off the season very well and was super consistent up until the Daytona race. After that, he have been extremely inconsistent. Why is being consistent so important for Kurt? While, the 41 car upside this season most weekend has been finishing inside the top 10. With no upside to finish inside the top 5, he needs to depend on consistency to give him fantasy value. He been good at Richmond though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.2 average finish with 9.2 average running position and 103.8 driver rating. Overall, he have finished inside the top 15 in 6 of his past 7 races. Including 5 top 10 finishes in those 6 races as well. Since being with SHR, he have finished the past 3 of 4 races inside the top 10. He won a race here just last April, if you remember. But I don't think he comes close to being a race-winning threat though. Headed into practice, I view him nothing more than a top 10 driver. Maybe even less than that, if he doesn't qualify well.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is running as good as anyone right now and is sizzling with back-to-back top 5 finishes for the first time since his rookie season. Larson not only finishing well right now, but has been very fast. Since Pocono, he have had a car with top 5 speed every time he has came to the racetrack. Right now is the time to buy into some 42 stock, if you haven't. As he has a lot of great tracks coming in the chase, but Richmond may not be highest on his list though. As he have struggled the most on the shorter-flats in his cup career. For some reason, Larson have struggled on the shorter flats this season and doesn't have the speed he have had at other tracks. He also haven't had much luck at Richmond either. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 13.2 average finish with 14.2 average running position and 83.1 driver rating. Richmond remains one of the very few racetrack that Larson haven't recorded a top 10 finish at yet. In fact the other other tracks, he haven't finished inside the top 10 are at Kentucky and Sonoma. Tracks we only visit once per season. Honestly, I am not as high on Larson as I have been in recent. I think he will be a great option in the chase, especially on the worn-out 1.5 milers. But I am not loving him at Richmond though.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson have had speed in recent in weeks, but at Darlington he just couldn't put it together and had a terrible finish. As for Richmond, I think he will be alright. However, I am not super high on the driver of the No.48 car though. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 101.4 driver rating. He is on a bit of hot streak though. As he has posted 4 straight top 9 finishes, including an 3rd place run earlier this season at this racetrack. If we dig deeper, he have posted 7 Top 13 finishes over his past 9 races overall at Richmond. He also been a strong performer on the shorter-flats as well. On similar tracks this season, he have posted an 8.7 average finish with 7.3 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. Headed into practice, I would say that Johnson is an easy top 10 fantasy option in my opinion. He could be more that with some strong practice and good starting position. I wouldn't be afraid to upgrade Johnson to one of my favorites, if he shows me some speed.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr finally broke back into victory after some many bad breaks. It was one week after Kyle Larson ,who also have found quite a bit of misfortune this season as well. Truex will now look to build on his way this weekend at Richmond. But I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Truex haven't been the greatest on this type of track. On the shorter flats this season, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 99.1 driver rating. He haven't been terrible, but by no means has he been great either though. Truex also has been good lately at Richmond. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 17.4 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 77.9 driver rating. Those numbers don't look overly great, but he been better than they suggests though. Over the past 6 races overall, he have posted 4 top 10 finishes. I don't Truex this weekend, but I don't really love him either. I think it going to be another one of those ''meh, he was good but it could've been better'' weekends for the 78 team. I expect them to save their best stuff for the chase, starting at Chicago.
**All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter- @JeffNathans18
