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Fantasy Nascar Update -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - With no practice outside of Thursday's lone practice session, I have no choice but to make Kevin Harvick as my default fantasy nascar's favorite to win this weekend at Charlotte. He has a great track record and great things happens when Harvick starts up front, especially on the front row. Harvick probably would've been one of the favorites regardless when he had started, but the fact he is starting up front makes it too easy. There's not a lot to say other than, Kevin Harvick should be in your fantasy lineup. His record since joining SHR stands out one of the best in the series. I think he will be strong, regardless when we start the race. He is currently my pick to win!
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Kyle Busch - Not a lot to say about Kyle Busch that you don't already know. He will be a a strong contender for this weekend's race. He has never won in the Cup Series at this track, but is easily the best-driver never to win. His record stands out here from all of the rest non-winners. He has 12 Top 10 finishes over his past 17 races at this track. Including 9 Top 5 finishes in that 17-race span. Every single one of those races were with Joe Gibbs Racing, too. His numbers of late, aren't that great with only finishes of 33rd and 20th. These bad finishes are easy to explain though. Last fall, he was leading the race and Kyle Larson nailed him coming on to pit road. They were 1-2 prior to that, after that neither car was the same. Busch also ran well earlier this season, probably about 8th to 12th place car for most of the event. With about 10 laps to go, he nailed the wall very hard. That ended his night. Don't worry about Rowdy, as he has been strong all season long on the 1.5 mile racetracks. He was capable of a top 5 finish back at Chicagoland, if he didn't get a pit road penalty. I view Rowdy as one of he safest fantasy choices this weekend. With limited practice time, I want someone trustworthy in my fantasy lineup. There are only a few drivers who are more trustworthy than Rowdy.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
3. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson and the 48 team will be heavy contenders in this weekend's race. There many reasons to like the former Charlotte's winner chances, too. First off, it is how he is running at the moment. The Chevy has had the advantage lately on the intermediate tracks (I mentioned this a couple weeks ago) and I wouldn't be shocked to see that trend continue. Hard to judge by practice, with it being so inflated with the limited on-track time. But I am willing to bet the 48 team will be one of the drivers you have to beat. Also the 48 car has been fast on the 1-mile tracks in the chase as well, and I thought the shorter tracks would be a weakness for him and HMS. If he can run well at Dover and New Hampshire, then he should easily be a solid choice at at track he has won 7 times at. Only twice since the repave back in 2006, but still he finished 3rd earlier this season. Pretty good, don't you think? Another thing I like about him? People are avoiding him, because he cannot finish out races. I don't care if he not finishing out races or not, to me that's means absolutely nothing. We based our fantasy selections based off on potential not history. The potential says Johnson should be capable of a top 5 finish. I don't know about anyone else, but I would love to steal some nice value with a driver like Jimmie Johnson!
My Overall Ranking: 4th
4. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin consistency is no longer in tact like it was for that 9-race stench in the summer months and his fantasy value has dropped during the chase. But I do believe in Denny Hamlin still though. He is a former winner at this track and is still capable of running inside the top 5, if he has a good enough car. Hamlin is often the forgotten child at JGR, because all of the high-profiled drivers they have. Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards all are bigger names than Denny Hamlin. Least from a success standpoint over the past couple seasons. So if he isn't on a hot streak, he typically won't get the credit he deserves. Make no mistake, Denny Hamlin is still a great driver and should be at least considered as a top 10 driver on any given weekend. The Gibbs cars struggled a bit at Chicagoland a couple weeks ago, but I think they all will rebound though. Denny will be the surprise though. Pretty good racetrack for Denny, he has an 9.4 average finish over his past 5 races here. Including 4 straight Top 10 finishes (back to back 4th place finishes), with an career average finish of 11.4. It get better, over his past 12 races here, he has posted 11 Top 10 finishes. Over half of those races has ended in 4th or better, as well. Yeah, he may be a tad good at this track, right?
My Overall Ranking: 5th
5. Joey Logano - This final spot was a tough one overall, with limited practice there was clear cut favorite as preference. So I went with stats on this one and that one have to go to Logano. He been very strong at Charlotte throughout his career and I would consider it as his best racetrack from a career standpoint. Over the past 5 races here, he has the 3rd-best average finish of 7.8. His fall (October's Charlotte race) record here is very impressive, dating back to his JGR days. In 7 fall starts at Charlotte, he has only once finished worse than 12th place. In fact, 5 of 7 races has ended in 9th or better overall. Including 3 Top 5 finishes in those 7 starts. Even better? His best two starts have ended in 1st and 4th. He won this event last season during the chase. He isn't as strong as he was last season on the 1.5 mile tracks though. So I am not by means expecting him to repeat his recent success here in the fall races. However, he should be closer to the top 5 than top 10 though. I have him finishing in the 6th-8th place range. He might have enough upside to sneak out a top 5 finish, but as I suggested before I am not banking on it though.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
B:
1. Martin Truex Jr - Martin Truex Jr starts from just outside of the top 5, but he should be one of the early drivers on the move in the race. As he is using the same car he dominated with at Charlotte earlier this season and the car he won with at Chicagoland, just a couple weeks ago. Hard to agrue with how impressive that car has been this season. I expect similar results from it this weekend at Charlotte once again. I think Harvick will be tough to beat, but Truex's car should give him a very strong challenge. He may not lead at the start, but I think the 78 car will be leading at some point. FRR has found something, they are not sharing with anyone else. Whatever it is, it has launched them into the championship favorite's seat. Truex Jr may awfully strong lately, actually ever since Darlington. That late pass on Harvick have made this raceteam nearly unstoppable. What do I need to say? Nothing, I guess.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
2. Carl Edwards - I don't know what to make of Carl Edwards this season, he started off really strong and consistent. And then boom, he has been super inconsistent once we got into June. Man, if only I knew where I saw that sort of thing before? Oh right, he pulled the exact same shit last year. Except, he started off the year being inconsistent and found consistency after we got into June. Oh the iron of that. He has amazing record here at Charlotte, but it is hard to say what to expect from the 19 team. Usually judging by the results of other 1.5 mile tracks are good idea, but we only have ran one of them since start of August. And that was Chicagoland, he struggled there (JGR did for the most part as a whole). So really there are a lot of uncertainty about him this weekend as a fantasy pick. I personally don't see him being nothing more than top 10 finisher. If that, based on his recent performances in the chase. Potential wise, he should be a good top 10 bet but I am not willing to raise the bar beyond that though.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
3. Kyle Larson - Big question following Dover was, ''What happened to Chip Ganassi Racing? Anyway this could have been prevented?'' Well, you see it simple as this: There wasn't enough laps ran in practice (not enough time really) for CGR to find those issues. If so, good chance Larson wouldn't been eliminated. But I think this was the best thing to happen for Kyle Larson from a fantasy vantage point. I fully expect fantasy players to avoid Larson and target drivers who are still in the championship hunt. That's where fantasy value can be found. This weekend, he is starting from the 25th position. Not ideal for him, but he should move up about 12 to 18 spots (18 spots being my realistic best-case possible). So he should be considered gold in leagues that reward moving through the field. This is given, he can finish. His recent finishes aren't great here, but he ran top 10 strong back in May and had a top 5 car back in last season's race as well. Other thing to like about Larson? He is use to qualifying poorly at Charlotte. Since being put in the #42 car, he has only started better than 24th place in one of five career races. He should move forward and finish in the 8th-14th place range.
My Overeall Ranking: 12th
4. Austin Dillon - Dillon has been very consistent this season and that haven't changed so far in the chase, and you can almost expect that going forward as well. He qualified solidly inside the top 20 for this weekend's race and should be a good top 15 bet once again. He has ran well at Charlotte, but not well enough to be a top 10 contender. For him to advance to the next round, I think he will have to least start running top 10 starting this weekend at Charlotte. His upside is most likely somewhere around 12th place or so.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
5. Kasey Kahne - I probably could've easily ranked Kahne over guys such as Larson and Dillon, but I decided not to. Kahne has been very strong in recent weeks, but I think he may find some bad luck this weekend. I mean, there is nothing that would suggest that but it wouldn't be the craziest thing to happen. He has finished top 12 in every race, dating back to Darlington. Last week, we saw his top 10 streak get snapped but kept it at an top 12 streak. I like him more on these type of tracks than most other tracks though. The HMS cars looked strong in limited practice this weekend, I think they will be able to stay with the Gibbs cars for the most part. Kahne also has found a great deal of success at this racetrack.
My Overall Ranking: 14th
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott is having a great rookie season, the most impressive rookie since Denny Hamlin in 2006. Elliott haven't found victory lane, but it is only matter of time now. In the chase itself, he has finished inside the top 5 twice now. Only other drivers who can say that is Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr through three races. Elliott also qualified very well for this weekend's race as well. Based off of potential, I would say is Elliott is certainly a top 10 driver. With top 5 upside, enough upside to make a powerful fantasy choice for anybody's lineup. It is hard to say his outlook, but at the moment I am leaning he's one of the better choices.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney is having a pretty solid rookie year, but has been overshadowed by Chase Elliott's year. Headed into the season, I thought Blaney had a legit shot at staying with Elliott but I clearly off on that prediction though. Still, you cannot take anything away from Ryan Blaney. He continues to improve and succeed weekly expectations. This week, I am not super high on him, even though I think his best result of the remaining races will be on a 1.5 mile racetrack. However, I think it will likely come next week at Kansas (on a newer surface). I don't hate Blaney this weekend at Charlotte, but I think he will be better off at Kansas and likely Phoenix. Headed into the race, I view him as top 20 guy with top 15 upside. I don't think he will be a top 10 contender this week. Likely see a finish from 13th-18th place in my opinion.
My Overall Ranking: 16th
3. Alex Bowman - Bowman is having a good season overall when he is aboard the #88 car, I would say. He has one of his best opportunities this weekend at Charlotte though. He qualified an season-best 2nd place and that's great for him. Starting up front at Charlotte usually lead to good things and the #88 probably has some speed in it, too. All of the HMS cars has been very strong of late and Bowman could easily be in for a strong top 10 run. I honestly wouldn't rule it out. However, he is a young driver and haven't really proven himself this season in terms of consistency. If he was more consistent, I would likely have ranked him more to his realistic finish. However, since I don't fully trust him yet. He takes a sizable nosedive. Remember, I am huge believer in consistency. If you don't have it, I will grade your ranking harshly. Despite good potential.
My Overall Ranking: 18th
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
