2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Kyle Busch

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Driver Name: Kyle Busch

Car #: 18

Make: Toyota 

Season Debut: 2005 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships:1

# of Career Starts: 426

# of Career Poles: 17

# of Career Wins: 38

# of Career Top 5s: 147 

# of Career Top 10s: 219

# of Career DNFs: 46

# of Career laps led: 12,359 

Career Average Finish: 14.6

Career Average Start: 13.1

# of 2016 Wins: 4

# of 2016 Top 5s: 17

# of 2016 Top 10s: 25

# of 2016 Poles: 2

# of 2016 DNFs: 5

# of 2016 laps led: 1,379

2016 Average Finish: 11.5

2016 Average Start: 9.6

2016 Fantasy Recap - Kyle Busch had a very strong 2016 season, at times he looked like the best driver in the series. Even when he looked off, he still looked like one o the best drivers in the series. That proabbly because he is one of the best drivers in the series. Very few has his skill-set behind the wheel and well-balanced across every type-track. From intermediate tracks to road courses, he's pretty good just about everywhere. Obviously the top-notch equipment helps, but his talent puts him above the rest though. Rowdy has now posted 38 wins in his career and on pace to easily destroy the 50-win mark in the next 4-5 years. In 2016, he was strongest at the intermediate tracks. The JGR were stout on at these venues in the regular season, while they fell off in the chase. Still, Rowdy was among the best still. He really only had a few poor finishes on this type of track and those were simply flukes. He was also very strong on the shorter flats as well. I would say this was his second-strongest type-track. In 6 races on shorter flats (New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix), he posted 5 Top 4 finishes and an 8th place. That lone non-top 4 finish was back at the first New Hampshire race where he led 133 laps. He also was a strong performer on the short tracks and plate tracks. The short tracks were a bit misleading. Especially at Bristol, as he found bad luck in both races. While he finished 1st and 5th at the two Martinsville races. Rowdy isn't really known as a plate racer but don't tell him that because he was a stud in 2016. He finished 3rd, 2nd and 3rd in the first three plate races. He intentionally ran in the back in the chase race at Talladega to ensure advancement to the next round. I always said that Rowdy is the series' most underrated plate racer. His lone weakness in 2016 probably was the larger flats. He won at Indy, but looked kinda lost at both Pocono races. He was good probably somewhere around 9th-12th place driver in both races. All-in-all, what a impressive year that Rowdy had. Hard to be upset with a year he had in 2016!

Strong Tracks - Kentucky, Indy, Texas, Cali, and Richmond

Weak Tracks - Michigan and Pocono

Yahoo Grouping Tier: A-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook -Kyle Busch is in for another monster season (See what I did there? - ha!) and should contuine his impressive pace since joining JGR. Over the past 9 seasons (all since behind the wheel of the #18 car), he has posted 3.7 wins per season. No driver in the series can say that, he is winning at epic pace for this day and time. In that 9 year span, he has posted at least 3 wins in 7 of 9 seasons. So odds are, he will post another 3-win season. Will he be able to repeat his career-highs 17 Top 5 finishes and 25 Top 10 finishes? I don't know, I say he comes very close though. Rowdy has many strong areas and obviously the intermediate tracks will be his primary strength as a fatnasy option. I think its almost a no-brainer to use him on the intermediate tracks. Especially the 1.5 mile tracks. He will definitely excel on those venues. He will also be very strong on the road courses (more so at Watkins Glenn), plates and shorter flats. He will have his good and bad days on the short tracks in general, but he will have more good than bad by far. There are a couple tracks that I would like to avoid him in general though. As listed up above Michigan and Pocono. These two tracks have given Rowdy all kinds of problems of late. For whatever reason, I will try to avoid him at all cost. With that said, Rowdy is a superstar so I wouldn't be against it either. Bristol and Dover are other tracks that I am a little worried about. Over his past 11 races at these two tracks, he has combined 6 DNFs. All of those 11 races has been since the 2014 season start. In that time span, he only has 5 DNFs at 21 other tracks. That's just insane folks! So yeah, I will have by eye on him when we come to those tracks. Overall, I expect Rowdy to have another impressive season. And you should too!

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Ricky Stenhouse Jr

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Driver Name: Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Car #: 17

Make: Ford

Season Debut: 2013 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 148

# of Career Poles: 1

# of Career Wins: 0

# of Career Top 5s: 7 

# of Career Top 10s: 7

# of Career DNFs: 12

# of Career laps led: 44 

Career Average Finish: 21.3

Career Average Start: 20.3

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 4

# of 2016 Top 10s: 6 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 5

# of 2016 laps led: 6

2016 Average Finish: 19.6

2016 Average Start: 17.4

2016 Fantasy Recap - A lot of people say that RFR was terrible in 2016 and I cannot disagree, but the bright spot bright was how well Stenhouse started off 2016 season. He blasted out of the gate with solid consistency. In the first 14 races in 2016, he posted 10 Top 16 finishes. Very solid, in fact he only posted 15 Top 20 finishes in the entire 2015 season. As you expected, he easily destroyed that total as he posted 22 Top 20 finishes. Which is 2nd-most since joining Cup full-time. His most top 20 finishes were in 2013 (Rookie year). With that said, RFR decline hasn't set in yet. It was just starting to see decline in speed.  On top of 22 Top 20 finishes, he also posted career-highs in top 5 finishes (4), top 10 finishes (6) and average start (17.4). He also posted 2nd-best average finish (19.6). His average finish is very notable because he jumped up from 22.3 to 19.6. That's up 3 from the 2015 season, pretty impressive I would say. It all about progress and he definitely made some in 2016. Overall a pretty solid year for Ricky Stenhouse Jr, as he did everything you could ask for from a young driver.

Strong Tracks - Talladega, Bristol, Kansas and Dover

Weak Tracks - Martinsville and Homestead

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Many people said that Greg Biffle leaving RFR was a huge mistake on RFR's end and I honestly have to disagree. So many people still believe that Biff was the lead dog in that orgzation. Experience wise? Sure. But I said last offseason that Ricky Stenhouse was going to be the best driver driver at RFR last season and was exactly that. Across the board, Stenhouse had better numbers than Greg Biffle. In top 5 finishes, top 10 finishes, average finish, average start, top 20 finishes,etc. They split the performance numbers, as Biff had edge in average running position (20.1 to 20.7), but Stenhouse had edge in driver rating (67.3 to 66.7). All in all, Stenhouse had the better year. Especially at start of the year and on the intermediate tracks in general. I think Stenhouse Jr is still a working progress on some of the short tracks, but he been more consistent on the 1.5 mile tracks. If you can be consistent on the 1.5 mile tracks, then you are good shape. In 2017, I think Stenhouse Jr will once again improve his numbers. Last year, we saw Stenhouse get on a roll for the first couple months before becoming inconsistent. If he can consistently finish inside the top 15 or close to it, then you will become a visible fantasy option in certain fantasy formats. He has the most fantasy value in Yahoo Fantasy Racing because of the final finish position being such a key factor, not so much anything else. He also could be a good play in certain salary cap leagues, more of a budget helper guy though. Probably a good mid-range filer at certain tracks, espeically places like Bristol and Dover. I think Stenhouse will perform his best at the intermediate venues, Bristol, Dover and the plate tracks. He also should be good at New Hampshire and Richmond on the shorter flats. I would avoid him on the larger flats and road courses altogether to be honest.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Clint Bowyer

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Driver Name: Clint Bowyer

Car #: 14

Make: Ford

Season Debut:

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 397

# of Career Poles: 2

# of Career Wins: 8

# of Career Top 5s: 58 

# of Career Top 10s: 167

# of Career DNFs: 30

# of Career laps led: 2,338 

Career Average Finish: 15.9

Career Average Start: 18.2

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 0

# of 2016 Top 10s: 3 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 2 

# of 2016 laps led: 3

2016 Average Finish: 23.6

2016 Average Start: 30.7

2016 Fantasy Recap - Clint Bowyer had one of his worst seasons ever behind the #15 Car for HScott. Statically speaking, he had his worst year ever as a full-time driver. It was also the first time that he haven't been apart of a major team as well. He only posted 3 top 10 finishes in 36 races and added 10 Top 20 finishes with 23.6 average finish. It safe to say he won't put up those type of numbers for quite some time again, as he will be driving for SHR in 2017 and beyond. You shouldn't put much stock into data from 2016 as it is considered to be greatly inflated compared to reality.

Strong Tracks - Sonoma, Michigan, Richmond and Martinsville

Weak Tracks - Phoenix and Atlanta

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Clint Bowyer should have a much better year than 2016, with a major uptick in equipment level. The challenging part with Clint will be not using last season data to get a good idea on his potential. Commonly, us fantasy players try to use past season data to figure out a driver's range. For 2017, that won't work so well. Anyways, I expect Bowyer to have a pretty good year with the #14 team. I think he will be at his best on the shorter track racetracks in general. As from a career point of view, everything points at Clint being an short track ace. With that said, Clint never been on a real raceteam in terms of top equipment. I say 2012 was the only year that he was in top equipment, when MWR was peaking. He won 3 races that year, so very hard to say what he could be with SHR. I still say that Clint will be at his best on the short tracks and road courses. You can also add the shorter flats and plate tracks to list of strengths for Clint. Phoenix is more of a weak track for him, but Richmond and New Hampshire are definitely close to top for him as strong tracks. As for intermediate tracks, I would say most weekends his ceiling is top 10. I don't really expect him to go out and contend for top 5 finishes. He may sneak in a couple top 5 finishes, but I don't think it can be depended on consistently though. Another question mark will be the larger flats for him. I am not really sure what to expect from him. With better equipment, we should see uptick in production but will it be enough? I don't know. He has never ran well at either track, but I would say he would be a top 10 to low-teen driver at those two venues. Overall, I expect good things from Clint Bowyer. He should get back to the win column in 2017 and posted somewhere around 6 to 10 Top 5 finishes and hover with 15 to 20 Top 10 finishes. I am not expecting the world, but those numbers are doable for him I think.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18\

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Ty Dillon

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Driver Name: Ty Dillon

Car #: 13

Make: Chevy

Season Debut: 2017 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 18

# of Career Poles: 0

# of Career Wins: 0

# of Career Top 5s: 0 

# of Career Top 10s: 0

# of Career DNFs: 1

# of Career laps led: 3 

Career Average Finish: 23.6

Career Average Start: 27.3

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 0

# of 2016 Top 10s: 0 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 1

# of 2016 laps led: 3

2016 Average Finish: 24.0

2016 Average Start: 27.1

2016 Fantasy Recap - Ty Dillon drove the #95 car (and #14 car - sub for Smoke) in 2016 in a part-time effort to gain additional experience at the Cup level, before making the jump to Full-time. He shared the seat with Michael McDowell. Dillon had a pretty good season overall. In 11 starts, he posted an solid 24.0 average finish with 3 Top 20 finishes. Not a great top 20 rate, but still not terrible either though. He only had 7 starts prior to 2016, so that's pretty solid. Also, he only had one DNF. For a young driver in a part-time role, that's all you can really expect. Ty reminds me a lot of Austin Dillon in terms of his driving style. When Austin first arrived on the cup scene, this exactly how Austin would drive. Just logging laps and knocking out quality finishes, without tearing up racecars. In 2016, that what Ty exactly did. His was very consistent, as only one finish resulted in worse than 25th place in his first 8 races. Including 5 races in the #95 car. His last three races ended in 27th, 32nd and 33rd though. So his numbers fell off in his final couple of races, however there was a different Crew Chief atop of the #95 team during those races. I personally believe that change was more for McDowell's benefit. So maybe that explains for his worst three races. Either way, Dillon had a pretty good season. Hard to hate on him for doing what he needs to do, while posting quality results in the process.

Strong Tracks - TBD

Weak Tracks - TBD

Yahoo Grouping Tier: C-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - There's a lot of unknowns about Ty Dillon at this point. He has a lot of expereince in the lower levels and had 11 races last season under his belt. So not like we are going in blinded, with no data at all. However, with that said he will be driving the #13 car. A raceteam that has struggled for a long time to be competitive. Casey Mears best days usually came when he finished around 20th. And 20th for him was like a top 10 finish. Most days, 25th-30th were his average day at the office. It doesn't really sound too promising for Ty Dillon, even though I expect a uptick in fantasy production than what Mears gave. But, I am not expecting a major incline though. Remember, Dillon is a pretty young driver but he should improve throughout the year. Early in the season is when you should expect his worst results. As he will have to get on same page with his new team. However, it will all come down to the performance of the #13 team. If the #13 team doesn't have significant improvement then it will definitely show down his progression. Dillon best days will likely be on the flats and shorts in 2017. Too hard to tell at the moment, as there very little data to go on. If he was put in the #31 car, I think we could have a much better idea what to expect from him. To me, we have to treat Dillon like he has never made a Cup start in his career. Because with the #13 team, that pretty much is what happening. With that said, we do know that the #13 performances pretty good on the shorter (in length) tracks. While struggling on the intermediate venues. He may have a couple standout runs on the intermediate tracks, but he will have far more bad ones than good one though.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Denny Hamlin

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Driver Name: Denny Hamlin

Car #: 11

Make:Toyota

Season Debut: 2006 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 398

# of Career Poles: 23

# of Career Wins: 29

# of Career Top 5s: 117 

# of Career Top 10s: 196

# of Career DNFs: 33

# of Career laps led: 8,122 

Career Average Finish: 14.3

Career Average Start: 13.2

# of 2016 Wins: 3

# of 2016 Top 5s: 12

# of 2016 Top 10s: 22 

# of 2016 Poles: 1

# of 2016 DNFs: 4

# of 2016 laps led: 524

2016 Average Finish: 11.7

2016 Average Start: 6.3

2016 Fantasy Recap - Hamlin had his best season since before he had his back injury back in 2013. I would definitely say this was the best he has looked since that magic 2012 year he had. Statically speaking, i would say that 2016 was his 4th-best season of his career. His 3 wins were his best mark since 4 wins in 2012. He also posted 12 Top 5 finishes as well. Which is a decrease from 2015, but only by 2. With that said, he posted a career-best 22 top 10 finishes. He also posted career highs in average finish (11.7) and average start (6.3). Those are great numbers and all, but despite having a career year, it doesn't really feel that way. At end of the day, it just feels like Hamlin had another good year. Despite the numbers saying he had his most balanced year ever. More often than not, he was really good but never a standout contender for wins. He reminded me a lot of Dale Jr. A lot of top 10 finishes, but not really enough of laps led or dominating performances. Don't be fooled one bit by that he had a very impressive season. More times than not, when he needed a good finish then he got one for the most part. Very strong year for Denny Hamlin. It seems like he is starting to roll back into form after a couple of years off his game.

Strong Tracks - Martinsville, Daytona, Darlington and Indy

Weak Tracks - Sonoma and Kansas

Yahoo Grouping Tier: A-list Grouping

Overall Value Prediction: Inconsistency with streaky potential

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Hamlin is a tough driver to figure out for the most part. Over the past couple seasons, he has had very slow starts to the season. Before finding his groove later in the year and becoming one of the more reliable drivers in terms of consistency. Will that trend continue in 2017? I don't know. Logic would suggest this should be the case, but things early in the season will eventually turn for Hamlin. His big problem seems to be not able to take end of the previous season's momentum and use it toward the following season. Overall, Hamlin should be considered as one of the best drivers in the series. He has proven he is a top driver across the board on just about every type-track. He will be at his very best on the shorter-flats and short tracks in general. His best track in my opinion is Martinsville. I would expect him to be extremely strong at the Plates, more specially at Daytona. He has been on a different level lately, after a very slow start to his career. He also will perform above average on the intermediate tracks, but I would say he will be inconsistent more than his teammates. I think you could say the same thing about the larger flats as well. Pocono and Indy are very good tracks for him, but his numbers just don't stand out at Pocono like back in 2010 area. The biggest question probably would be about the road course. His two worst tracks from a career point of view are the road course. However, he had top 5 runs in both road courses in 2016. Did he finally turn the corner or was it simply a fluke? Part of me want to say it was a fluke, but you don't luck into impressive runs twice on two different road courses though. I would say his fantasy value goes way up at both of those tracks. Overall, Hamlin should be considered a top 10 driver with high-upside. But that is when he is hot, when he goes on cold streaks, he should be avoided at all costs. As the reward really doesn't outweigh the risk. For me, Hamlin is a really good driver but hasn't shown me, he is an elite driver across the board. I would rather use him at his best tracks first and then chase the points when they are there.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Danica Patrick

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Danica Patrick

Car #: 10

Make: Chevy

Season Debut: 2013 (First-Full season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 154

# of Career Poles: 1

# of Career Wins: 0

# of Career Top 5s: 0 

# of Career Top 10s: 6

# of Career DNFs: 18

# of Career laps led: 57 

Career Average Finish: 24.1

Career Average Start: 25.7

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 0

# of 2016 Top 10s: 0 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 3

# of 2016 laps led: 30

2016 Average Finish: 22.0

2016 Average Start: 25.1

2016 Fantasy Recap - Danica Patrick had her best season ever in terms of average finish. She had an average finish of 22.0. However, he failed to produce any top 5 finishes or top 10 finishes for the first time since becoming an full-time driver. In 2013 (rookie season), 2014 and 2015, she at least posted one top 10 finish. So you would think that she had more top 20 finishes, right? Well, not exactly! She had 14 Top 20 finishes in 2016. In 2014 and 2015, she had 13 Top 20 finishes in each of those two seasons. However, her average finish for the season was up from 23.6 and 23.4 in 2014/2015 to 22.0 in 2016. All in all, her numbers stayed the same for the most part. Her only noticeable stat increase was that her average up. Overall, you cannot really say that Danica had a terrible year. She didn't have any eye-popping races where she was a standout or anything. However, she did a great job of limiting her really poor finishes. For Danica, that's key for her success. I thought she made more steady progress in 2016. She continue to improve year after year, it is a slow progression for her compared to the competition.

Strong Tracks - Michigan and Atlanta

Weak Tracks - Pocono and Indy

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

Overall Value Prediction: Limited potential with limited upside

2017 Fantasy Outlook - I don't expect major improvement from Dannica Patrick in 2017, actually I expect around the same numbers for the most part. She has made major gains since her rookie season. She is entering her 5th year as a full-time driver and should keep on making improvements at each type of track. Her best type of track will likely be the intermediate. More often than not, it seems to be her strongest suit overall. She can run well on the flats, road courses, shorts and plates but I think they further in between though. There will be certain tracks that she excels out, but I say they are most likely on the intermediate tracks. Danica's biggest issue is she isn't an appealing fantasy option in any formats really. Her limited potential and upside will hold her back to being nothing than top 20 to top 25 driver. A good trend from 2016 was that she was very consistent on the 1.5 mile tracks. As she overall finished 21st or better in 8 of the 11 races on that type of track. 7 of 8 of those top 21 finishes ended in 17th-21st place range. In simpler terms, she was basically was a top 20 caliber driver on the high-speed intermediate tracks. If she can retain that sort of potential and consistency in 2017, then she definitely will have some fantasy value in deeper leagues. Consistency is key, if she can be consistent then her value goes up. It about being predicable, if she can be predicable then it should be easier to read her from week to week. For a lot of us, I think not knowing what to expect is the scary part. Don't be shocked if Danica has her best year yet in the Cup Series. Every single year, it seems like her numbers get a little better. For her sake, I hope that the case once again.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com 

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Trevor Bayne

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Trevor Bayne

Car #: 6

Make: Ford

Season Debut: 2015 (First Full season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 130

# of Career Poles: 0

# of Career Wins: 1

# of Career Top 5s:  3

# of Career Top 10s: 10

# of Career DNFs: 17

# of Career laps led:  63

Career Average Finish: 24.2

Career Average Start: 22.5

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 2

# of 2016 Top 10s: 5

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 2

# of 2016 laps led: 34

2016 Average Finish: 19.9

2016 Average Start: 20.4

2016 Fantasy Recap - Nobody really gave Trevor Bayne much respect, even though he was the best driver for the first 20 races of the season at RFR. Yes, you read that right. He had an 19.8 average finish with 2 Top 5 finishes, 5 Top 10 finishes and 20 Top 20 finishes. He was tied or had better numbers than Greg Biffle in all of those categories. He was just a tad behind of Ricky Stenhouse Jr in all of those categories. Yet, people still viewed him as the worst driver of the three by far. But it was the complete opposite actually. Statically speaking, Trevor Bayne had easily his best season of career. Personally, I think people cannot get the image out of their head of Trevor's first year with RFR. Yeah he wasn't very good, however that's not the reality any longer. In 2016, he had his most Top 5 finishes, Top 10 finishes, Top 20 finishes, and best average finish. His season was so good, it was a career-setting year, even though the bar has been set incredibly low. In 2016, he had 2 Top 5 finishes. He had 1 in his first 94 races. He also posted 5 Top 10 finishes, he only posted 5 of them previously in his career. Also he led 34 in 2016, prior to that he only led 29 laps. He also posted an 19.9 average finish, his previous highest (min. 12 starts) was 22.5 average finish. All in all, he had a pretty good season with the #6 car.

Strong Tracks - Kentucky, Bristol and Las Vegas

Weak Tracks - Indy and Phoenix

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

Overall Value Prediction:  Inconsistent with limited upside

2017 Fantasy Outlook - I think Trevor Bayne will improve even more in 2017. I do believe the direction they are going with the current race package will benefit Bayne. I felt like last season's package was going to help him a lot. Going more in that direction should only help him against the competition. RFR lacks any real experience like Biff gave RFR, but I do believe RFR will be fine. They are slowly getting back to be contenders, but make no mistake they are still quite ways from being legit top 10 contenders though. Bayne on most weekends will most likely be an top 20 driver with upside to finish inside the top 15. More so in the low to middle teens most races. His best days will be on the shorter racetracks, especially Bristol. He also will perform good on some intermediate tracks. He will struggle at certain places, but I do think he will have the potential to finish in the teens at a lot of places we go though. Also make no mistake that he will have some bad races, where he never sees the top 20. And that's okay, because he is a young driver and still learning. Bayne will be off most fantasy players' radars. In 2017, I would project 0 wins, 2-4 Top 5 finishes, 3-6 Top 10 finishes and somewhere around 18-22 Top 20 finishes. He should be a borderline top 20 driver heading into the season.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18