Wednesday, February 01, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Joey Logano

Welcome to TimersSports

My fellow Timerssports writer, Jeff Nathans picked Kyle Busch to win the championship. It is hard to disagree with that pick. Rowdy is in my top 3, but I am going with another impressive wheelman. Maybe you heard of him? His name is Joey Logano. Young, talented and fearless can best describe Joey. On of top of that, he is in my opinion the best qualifier in the series. He does a better job of qualifying up front and turning them into results than arguably anybody else. And over the past 3 seasons, he is tied for the 2nd-most wins.

Intermediate tracks 

Logano's strongest type of track since joining Penske been his ability to run extremely well on all forms of intermediate tracks. Almost anytime we at this type of track, we can count on him to be a top 5 fantasy pick. Does he always deliver? No, but most of time he is right there in mix of things for the win. Cannot ask for much more than that. Michigan is probably his best intermediate track. In his past 7 races at Michigan, he's finished four of them inside the top 5. In his last 5 races at the track, he's compiled the best average finish (5.2), best average running position (7.0), best driver rating (117.5), most laps led (255) and most fast laps (98). In every category, he's ranked first. In his last 5 races at Michigan, he's finished 5th or better in 3 races. Since joining Penske (in 2013 - 8 races), he has posted 8 straight Top 10 finishes. He's led in 7 of 8 races, too. Statistically speaking, he's been the best driver since 2013 at Michigan. He's ranked first in wins (2) , top 10 finishes (8) , average starting position (5.1), average finish (5.4), average running position (6.4), driver rating (118.9), laps led (356) and laps inside the top 15 (92%). Also ranked 2nd in top 5 finish (4) and fast laps (132).

Other good intermediate tracks for Joey? Well, there are quite few of them. I cannot think of one track that Joey hasn't ran well. Of course, you can say that about any top driver though. Still, I would say Kansas is his second-best track. After that, Texas, Vegas and Darlington are his stand-out tracks. Kansas and Texas are undervalued tracks at the moment because he has one poor finish at both of those tracks last seasons. Even though, he has been a beast at both tracks over the past couple seasons. So let's take a look at both Texas and Kansas, so we can see exactly how good he's been.

Texas is a great track for Logano! He's ran very well at this place with the #22 team.  In 8 races with Penske, he has proven he's an elite option here. In those 8 races, he's finished 5th or better in 6 races. He's finished 4th or better in 3 of the last 4 races here. Also, he's a former winner too. Another thing to love about him at Texas? He's never finished worse than 5th in the spring race. His last four finishes in the spring? 3rd, 4th, 1st and 5th. What's else is there to say? I don't know, Joey is a stud at Texas! Don't judge him based off his 12.2 average finish in last four races, because it will likely be a painful regret.

Kansas is a lot like Texas for Joey, but he's even better. If you take his last 7 races at Kansas into consideration, you could say it is his best track. In his last 6 races (excluding spring 2016 race), he's posted 3.0 average finish, 4.8 average running position and 125.0 driver rating. The only driver that been even comparable during that run is Kevin Harvick. For good reason, too. In his past 7 races overall, he's finished 6 of 7 races in 5th or better. Yes, 6 top 5 finishes in just his last 7 races at Kansas. In his last 5 races, Joey has posted 3 Top 3 finishes. 2 of those ended in wins. I love his October's race trends. In his past 4 fall's race at Kansas, Joey has posted 4 straight Top 4 finishes. His last three finishes in the October's races: 3rd, 1st, 1st. He's a cold-blooded killer at this place!

Short Flat tracks 

Joey Logano is vastly underrated on the short flat tracks in general. He isn't bad one any of them, but never get credited for being a well-rounded driver. Let's look at him on New Hampshire. His numbers a pretty good at this place over the past couple seasons. Over his last 5 races at New Hampshire, he's posted 4 Top 4 finishes. His lone non-top 5 finish is 11th. For whatever reason, he was off in both races last season. But still got the finishes though. He's finished 11th and 4th in 2016.

I would call Phoenix his best short flat track, honestly. Logano been on it over his last 7 races here. In that time period (excluding Spring 2016 race last year), he's posted 2nd-best average finish (5.2), best-average start (4.8), 2nd-best average running position (5.8), 2nd-most laps led (214), 3rd-most fast laps (112) and 2nd-best driver rating (115.9). Also, he's one of three drivers to win over the past three seasons at Phoenix. Logano has been the best driver, not named Kevin Harvick. And if Kevin for some reason regresses at Phoenix, guess who is laying and waiting? That guy in the #22 Ford is clicking his chops. I love Joey at Phoenix!

Richmond is another undervalued track for Joey Logano! The Penske Fords been very strong at this place over the past couple seasons and expectations should remain high in 2017. In 8 race with the #22 team, Joey has posted 7 top 10 finishes. In his past 6 races, he's finished 6th or better in four races. Currently, he's on an 6-race Top 10 streak at Richmond. He had good races in 2016 at Richmond, but I wouldn't call it phenomenal though. Finished 8th and 10th, but wasn't really out of this world though. He's struggled somewhat in terms of performance on the short flats tracks. I don't know why, but he did win at Phoenix at end of the year. That something, right? Regardless, over the past three seasons, he hasn't had many ''bad'' races. Most of his finishes ended inside the top 10. All but two in last three seasons. And one of them, he was wrecked by a field-filler while leading. Folks, that's insane consistency! 

Short tracks 

Well, already took a look at the short flat tracks, so let's keep going with the short tracks. Bristol and Martinsville are very good tracks for Joey. He's good on both, but I would say that Bristol is the track I would prefer him on. Very few drivers been consistent at Bristol over the past couple seasons, but Joey is a rare exception to that rule. In his last 5 races at Bristol (excluding April 2015 race - he wrecked on lap with teammate Keselowski; April 2014 race - had power steering issues), he's posted 5.4 average finish, 5.8 average start, 294 laps led, 112.8 driver rating and 9.8 average running position. Based on numbers, he's a top two driver since joining Penske.

Martinsville is another great track for Joey, he's underrated here for vast number of reasons. If you look at his average finish over the past few seasons, you say he's sucks at Martinsville. But you have to take into consideration he was wrecked in November 2015. Remember that rivalry with Matt Kenseth? Yeah, that hurt him a lot here. In his last 5 races (excluding November 2015), he's posted series-best average start (1.8), series-best average finish (6.4), 3rd-best average running position (7.8) and 3rd-best driver rating (108.9). As you can see, he's a top 3 driver in all of the major stat categories. An amazing stat about him is his starting position. He's a machine here, when it comes to starting up front. Entering 2017, he has 5 straight races with starting 1st or 2nd at Martinsville. 6 straight Martinsville races, with starting 3rd or better.

Large Flat tracks 

Logano been good at both Pocono and Indy, but I would prefer him at Pocono. He had a couple bad races recently, but over been solid at this place though. Over the past two seasons, Pocono is ranked 22nd in average finish. Don't be fooled by the most ''overrated'' stat in nascar. Average finish is a useless stat, if you don't dig deeper and figure the factors. And what do you know, 2 of his last 3 Pocono resulted in ''misleading'' finishes for Joey. You think that had a major impact on his final finish position? You bet your ass it did. In August 2016 (last season's race), he was very strong. He had the car to beat, but got involved in a wreck with Elliott. In August 2015, he had the car to beat once again. Dominant car that day, but ran out of fuel with a few laps to go. Like I said, average finish is useless, if you don't do some digging. In his recent 4 non-troublesome races at Pocono, he has finishes of 5th,4th,3rd and 7th. In his last 8 races at Pocono, he's finished 10th or better five times.

Indy been a great track for Joey! In his first 4 starts (all with JGR), he's never finished better than 9th. In his last 4 starts (all with Penske), he's never finished worse than 8th. That should tell you a lot, right there! In his last three starts, he has posted 3 straight finishes of 7th or better. In that time period, Joey has posted 2 Top 5 finishes. In 2014 and 2015. He's also led a lap in each of his last four races at Indy for the #22 team. I don't know what else to say about him at the large flat tracks, honestly. As you can see, he's great on them!

Road Courses 

Logano is very underrated on the road courses, he's been good since joining the #22 team. Both ranked as top 5 tracks over the past couple seasons. Watkins Glenn is one of his best tracks for his entire career. In his last 6 races (since his JGR days in 2010), he's posted 5 top 7 finishes in last 6 races. He's been extremely strong at Watkins Glenn over the last two seasons, more specifically. He's finished 1st and 2nd in the last two seasons. Sonoma is another great track for him for his entire career. In his last 6 races (back to 2010), he's finished 11th or better in 5 of 6 races. In 4 races with #22 team, he's finished 11th or better in three races. In the last two seasons, he's finished inside the top 5 in both races. Overall, he's has 4 straight Top 5 finishes on the road courses!

Plate Tracks 

I am not really a fan of Logano at the plate races. He has proven, he can get the job done. But, it seems to be hit or miss with him though. At Talladega, he's won 2 of the last three races. Great, but 5 of his last 9 races ended in 25th or worse. And those 2 wins are his lone top 10 finishes, too in his last 11 races here. Not a good sign at all. Could he be turning the table on his record like Hamlin did in recent sesons? Sure, but we are basing it on two ''great'' races. I would rather take my shot at Daytona, honestly. He's more proven in terms of his finishes, in my opinion. In his last 6 races, he's finished 11th or better four times. In last 4 races, he's posted 3 Top 6 finishes. In that 4-race time period, he's posted 8.3 average finish, 14.8 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Those kind of numbers makes him a top 5 pick, based off numbers. He will be good on the plate tracks and will have the ponetial to win. However, I am not convinced we can trust him yet. I would go with about 6 or 7 other drivers. With that said, he is getting very close. Another good year and he has my vote.

**Stats from Driver Averages and Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet

Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com

Twitter - @Garryy12




2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kyle Busch

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My Pick to win the championship in 2017 is Kyle Busch! It is hard to overlook the combination that Rowdy possesses. Top-equipment, talent, speed, consistency, upside and clear winning potential. That's everything we are looking for in a driver and Rowdy has it. Could you make a case for a couple driver that has all of those things? Sure, but I think Rowdy has good shot as any of those drivers. There's a certain level of confidence to Rowdy the past couple seasons. I love that in a driver, I love it even more in a driver like Rowdy!

Intermediate tracks will be very strong for Rowdy and the No.18 team in 2017. Over the past couple seasons, there hasn't been many drivers as strong as him on the intermediate tracks. His real strength been the 1.5 mile tracks though. He was impressive on the 1.5 mile tracks in 2016. If take out his one race race Charlotte, he's wrecked and finished 33rd. He had 5.1 average finish (2nd-best was 8.6 - 3 positions by the way) with 7.7 average running position (tied for 2nd-best in series behind Truex Jr) and 108.8 driver rating (3rd-best in series). That's unbelievable really, he had a top 5 average finish on ten 1.5 mile tracks. Also, he's posted 168 laps led and 196 fast laps. He was ranked 5th in laps led at 168 and ranked 3rd in fast laps at 196. Busch was very strong on this type of track in 2016.

His best intermediate are Texas, Cali and Kentucky. But like most elite drivers, you can say any track on the schedule is good place to use him. When looking at all of the intermediate tracks, the only place I wouldn't use him is Michigan honestly. Everywhere else, I would give him the green light. I say Kentucky is his best track though. In 6 starts, he has been amazing! He's finished 12th in last season and by far had his worst season of his career there. He had career-low driver rating of 108.8 driver rating. In his previous 5 starts, he had compiled 4 Top 5 finishes. Including two wins and additional 2nd-place finish as well. Prior to finishing 12th in last season's race, he had 3 straight Top 5 finishes. On top of that, he had finishes of 1st and 2nd in 2014 and 2015. It also helps that he spent number of years racing here in lower series. Cali is his 2nd-best intermediate track, in my opinion. He had a rough race last season here and finished 25th. Ran very well in the race but had issues late in the race. I believe he spun out with a flat tire in the final couple laps. I know something happened to him, because he brought out the final caution. Prior to that race, he had compiled 4 straight Top 3 finishes at the track. Over his past 16 races overall (dating back to 2005), he has compiled 12 Top 10 finishes in just 16 starts. In that span, he has had 7 top 5 finishes. In 2013 and 2014, he's won back races. From 2011 to 2014, he had driver ratings above 123 in every race.

Shorter flats will be a major strength for Kyle Busch in 2017. Behind the intermediate tracks, I think this is his best type of track honestly. He's great at all three tracks and you could make a case for them all as top 10 tracks for him. Richmond been his best track from a career point of view. Rowdy been amazing in 23 starts. In those 23 starts, he has compiled 4 wins, 15 Top 5 finishes and 17 Top 10 finishes. So, just 6 finishes outside of the top 10. That's insane! It is also only one of three tracks that he had led 1000+ laps. The other two are Bristol and Dover. Rowdy was in his prime at Richmond from 2009 to 2012. In a 7-race span, he had 7 Top 6 finishes. While posting all four of his wins (May 2009, May 2010, April 2011 and April 2012) and additional 2nd place finish in 2010. After winning in April 2012, he went on a 3-race slump. Where he's finished outside of the top 10 for a career-high 3 straight races at Richmond. How about over his past 5 races here? 4 Top 9 finishes. While 3 of those 4 races has ended in 3rd or better. 2 of his past 3 races has ended in 2nd place. Mr. Rowdy is returning to form at Richmond. Not good for the competition!

Phoenix always been a great track for Rowdy! He seem to run well every time he's comes here and recently been on it. Over his past 6 races, he has compiled 5 top 9 finishes. Over just his past 3 races, he has compiled 3 straight races of 4th or better. I love Rowdy at Phoenix, I have always considered him a great driver here. In his entire career at Phoenix since joining the top series, he has never went more than 3 straight races without a top 10 finish here. I doubt that will change anytime soon. He's enjoying the best stench of his career right now. He has compiled 7 Top 9 finishes over his past 9 races at the track.

New Hampshire is as good as the two tracks listed above for Rowdy. He's great at New Hampshire, but his average finish is ranked as 17th-best over the past two seasons. But that has a lot to do with his 37th place finish back in September 2015. Over his past 8 races, he has compiled 5 Top 3 finishes. He had a great stench from July 2013 to 2015. In that span, he had 4 Top 2 finishes in 5 races. In 2016, he had finishes of 8th and 3rd. In July race, he had a top 2 car and led 133 laps on that day. Him and Truex were by far class of the field. Hard to say who was better though. Regardless, he had a misleading finish. In the fall, he wasn't quite as strong but still finished 3rd. The shorter flats will be great for Rowdy in 2017, I am expecting!

Short tracks been good to Rowdy, but he hasn't gotten the finishes lately at Bristol. He's use to own this place, but lately nothing seem to go his way. Over his past 5 races at this track, he had posted 4 finishes of 29th or worse. Over his past 6 races at the track, he's only has 2 top 11 finishes. Best finish of 8th came back in August 2015. It is hard to feel great about Rowdy with those finishes, but we all know how good he was there last season. Had a top 3 in the spring race but had mechanical issues. In the summer's race, he had a dominant car and led 256 laps before having another mechanical issue. A couple drivers are like that at Bristol lately. Matt Kenseth and Kyle Larson also has had top 5 cars in both races in 2016, and had issues. Rowdy isn't the only one!

Martinsville is a great track for him and not many people even realize honestly. He's been great at Martinsville recently and should keep the results pouring in, too. Over his past 8 races here, he has compiled 5 Top 5 finishes. While finishing 15th or better in every single race. Want to go back further? Over his past 12 races here, he has compiled 7 Top 5 finishes. That's nearly 60% of the time, he's finishing inside the top 5! The dude been on it! Rowdy enters 2017 with 3 straight Top 5 finishes at Martinsville.

The larger flats are interesting for him. At Indy, he's always been great. In 12 career races, he has compiled 10 Top 10 finishes with 5 of them ending inside the top 5. Rowdy has had the magic touch lately though. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 4 Top 2 finishes. Yes, 4 top 2 finishes in the past 5 races! What's stands out more? 3 straight Top 2 finishes at the track, including back-to-back wins here as well. Rowdy dominated last season's race from the pole and led 149 laps.

Pocono is a track that I considered as one of his worst tracks. I think you sell him as a underrated driver, but at the same time it is hard to do that because he is a elite driver. 5 of his past 8 races at Pocono has ended in 6th-12th. Problem is? His last top 5 finishes came back in 2011 (11 races ago) and only has 13 Top 20 finishes in 24 career start. That's barely over 50% of the time. Also, over his past 10 races, he has compiled 5 finishes of 21st or worse. Again, 50% of the time finishing outside of the top 20. If we dig deeper into the data pool, he has 5 career DNFs at Pocono. Tied for the 2nd-most at all 23 tracks on the schedule. Another scary thought about Rowdy at Pocono? 8 of last 10 races, he has compiled a driver rating below 100.0. That should tell you a lot about him, folks.

Road courses should be good to Rowdy in 2017, he's good on them. Watkins Glenn is considered a top 5 track for him by many. Hard to argue with that, too. In 12 career starts, he has compiled 10 Top 10 finishes. Minus debut in 2005, he has only finished worse than 9th in one race. Performance wise, he has only posted two races with a driver rating below 100, since joining JGR. That was 2010 and 2014. He finished 40th in one of those races, by the way. Over his past 5 races at the track, he has compiled 4 top 7 finishes. He's finished 6th, 1st and 2nd in 3 of the past 4 races. Pretty good, folks. His Sonoma's numbers aren't as good, but he's a former 2-time winner there though. His numbers are kind of lackluster honestly. In 12 career races, he has compiled just 6 Top 11 finishes. While just finishing 7 of 12 races inside the top 20. Like I said lackluster, but he does have two wins. Problem is? Those two wins are his lone top 5 finishes. On plus side, he has a win and additional 7th place finish in his past two races though.

Plate tracks been good to Rowdy recently, I think he is one of the most underrated plate racer in Nascar. People primary think of him at intermediate and short tracks, but then forget about him at Daytona and Talladega. Are they at top of his list of tracks? Nope, but he can be a very effective option though. I am not going to spend a lot of time at either track with him. But it should be noted that Rowdy has compiled 3 Top 5 finishes in his last 4 races there. In his lone non-top 5 finish? Talladega. He's hung at the back to ensure advancement via points. Talladega is his better track recently. As 6 of his past 9 races ending in 12th or better. Including 4 Top 5 finishes in that span of races. His most recent top 5 finish came last May 2016. Daytona been a lot tougher though. He's swept the top 3 in both races in 2016. However, those remind his lone top 5 finishes since summer 2011. Before that? Summer 2008, his lone career Daytona win. The plate races aren't the first place, I would use him. But, hey there are worse places to use him!

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kevin Harvick

Welcome to TimersSports

There are a lot of people concerned about SHR switching over to Ford here in 2017. And I agree, there are some concerns about them. Considering they decided not to start building their new 2017 cars until the 2016 season was complete. Is that worrisome? Sure, but if anything it will affect start of the season. I highly doubt we see it affect their entire season. Harvick been a bad man since joining the #4 team. Ford has great stuff that will allow Harvick to keep up the good results. I am not too worried about Harvick in 2017, I still have very high expectations for him overall.

Obviously the intermediate tracks are where you want to use him. It is no secret that Kevin Harvick been the man to beat on the 1.5 mile tracks over the past three seasons. However, it is quite difficult to say what track is his best though. 7 of his top 10 tracks (over the past two seasons) are considered some type of an intermediate track. Like I said, very tough to say what tracks are his best. With that said, it is more of a personal preference when comes to picking at his ''top tracks''. Personally, I would say Texas, Kansas and Michigan are his top 3 tracks. You could add Darlington, Vegas, Cali, Homestead and Atlanta to that list. Really any intermediate on the schedule, Harvick will likely have top 5 potential.

I think (in my opinion) Michigan is Kevin's best track. There are many great tracks for him, but Harvick been straight impressive at Michigan over the past 4 years honestly. Over his past 8 at Michigan, he has compiled 7 Top 5 finishes. In that 8-race span, he has compiled five 2nd-place finishes. The latest one coming in August 2015. He's currently has posted 3 straight top 5 finishes at Michigan. He's swept the top 5 in last season's races. Not much else to say about him at Michigan honestly. His second-best intermediate track (in my opinion) is Kansas. He's been amazing at Kansas recently! Over his past 7 races at Kansas, he has compiled 5 finishes of 2nd or better. Yes, you saw right. In 2016, he had finishes of 1st and 2nd. He's won the fall's race there last season, after leading 74 laps. While, he has finished 1st or 2nd in 3 of the past 4 races at Kansas. I honestly don't know how you can not rank this place inside his top 3 tracks on intermediate tracks.

After Michigan and Kansas, I think you could make a case for him at 4 or 5 tracks as his third-best track. I would say Texas because simply there's more data to go on with visiting it twice per year with the #4 team. Homestead, Cali and Darlington are neck and neck after that. On pure stats, they are all better tracks for Kevin than Texas, but again less data to go on, too. In fantasy nascar, I prefer to have data to fall back on. Harder to judge tracks that we visit once per year. Well, sometimes it is. Sometimes it is better, there is only one visit. Just depends what's your view point is.

Shorter flats should be a great type of track for Kevin Harvick in 2017. Let's start with the obvious track of Phoenix. Yes, we all are aware how great of track it has been lately for him. Over his past 10 races, he has compiled 9 Top 4 finishes. In that span of races, he has compiled 8 Top 2 finishes. Including 6 wins over his past 9 races at Phoenix. Just unbelievable. From November 2013 to March 2016 (6 races), he has a driver rating above 140 in every single race. While leading 139 or more laps in 5 of those 6 races. He's struggled last fall though. Finished 4th, led 0 laps and posted a driver rating below 100.0 for the first time in 11 races at Phoenix. I think it could had been the #4 missed the setup, the competition stepped up or SHR just didn't have the speed like the last couple season. It could been any of those, but personally I think it was a combination of all three. That's just me though.

Richmond and New Hampshire are both good tracks for him, but not even close to what he has been at Phoenix though. Hard to say that they are bad track for him, even though both tracks are ranked outside of his top 10 tracks over the past two seasons. Yes ranked 11th and 12th of 23 tracks. Despite his impressive numbers at both places. New Hampshire been a great track for him since joining SHR. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 4 Top 5 finishes over his past 5 races. In that span, he has compiled 6.4 average finish (3rd-best) with 4.6 average running position (series-best) and 122.4 driver rating (series-best). Over the past three seasons, no driver has been better than Kevin Harvick. Yet it ranked as his 12th-best track over the past two seasons. This is after finishing 1st and 4th last year. Folks, he's that good everywhere, even some of his best tracks look average on a big board.

Richmond is considered as his weakest track among the shorter flats, but in reality it is a great place for him. Over the past two seasons, it is his 11th-best track in terms of average finish. That average finish is 6.7, by the way. Yeah I know that's impressive. Over his past 8 races, he has compiled 7 Top 11 finishes. He has one win that span but that win came with RCR in his final start though. He been on it lately at Richmond. As 4 of his past 5 races ended in 5th or better. He's swept the top 5 in both races in 2016. Harvick been very good on the shorter flats and that should continue in 2017. He might not start off as strong, but I fully expect him to get a win on one of them though.

The short track been good to Harvick, but he hasn't gotten the finishes to match the performances though. Harvick been a very strong performer at Bristol over the past couple seasons and starting to get rewarded it too. Over his past 5 races there, he has compiled 11.8 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 116.5 driver rating. How does in ranked in those categories? 3rd, 1st and 1st. Yeah, he's been very good. His last three races at Bristol? 7th, 2nd and 1st. His lowest driver rating in 6 starts with the #4 team is 99.2, back in April 2014 when he wrecked with 20 to go. Martinsville been tougher on Kevin, but he is vastly underrated though. Over his past 4 races, he has compiled 13.8 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 108.4 driver rating. His performance stats (ARP and Driver rating) ranked him as the 3rd-best over the past two seasons. Those two drivers? Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch. Don't overlook him at Martinsville, he can run well here.

Larger flats will be good to Kevin and personally I think he is a bit underrated. He's so strong on the intermediate tracks and shorter flats, he get disrespect on other tracks. I think larger flats are one of them honestly. Over the past two seasons, Pocono is ranked 20th of 23 tracks in terms of average finish. Not good, but trust me, don't me fooled though. He did finish 42nd in August 2015. He's blew an engine after 20 laps. In his past 4 races (minus that August 2015 race), he has compiled 3 finishes of 4th or better. Harvick finished 4th and 9th in last season's races at Pocono. Not anything over special, but still pretty good though. Harvick been good at Pocono, since joining the #4 team. Only one race he hasn't been competitive and that August 2015.

Indy been a great track for Harvick throughout his career. In 16 starts, he has compiled 12 Top 11 finishes. In his first 4 starts, he had 3 Top 8 finishes, including a win in 2003. Then from 2011 to 2013, he went three straight races without a top 10 finish. Longest of his career here. How about his past three races (all with SHR)? Well, he has compiled finishes of 6th, 3rd and 8th. That's ties his longest top 10 streak of his career at Indy. Another would set a new career-high with 4 in a row. Can he do it? I think there's a great chance of that happening.

Plate tracks should be good to Harvick, but I would call it a weakness for him. Only reason I saw that is because of the unknown at the plate tracks. He could easily find trouble, I don't think many would like to risk that. Especially in a limited-start game such as Yahoo Fantasy Racing. Regardless, he has proven himself as a plate racer ace. Daytona been great for Harvick since joining SHR. In 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 4 Top 4 finishes. Including 3 straight top 4 finishes, before finishing 39th in last summer's race. Overall, he has compiled 4 Top 4 finishes over his past 7 races. That's a good number, folks. He's been better at Talladega though. Over his past 7 races, he hasn't finished worse than 16th. In 5 of his past 7 races, he has compiled finishes of 12th or better. In his past 6 races (all with SHR), he has finished 9th or better four times. He will be good at plate tracks, but as usual luck will play a role though.

Road courses are very underrated for Harvick, he doesn't get the respect that he's deserves. Sonoma, he been great at in his last three starts with #4 team. Over his past two starts, he has compiled finishes of 6th and 4th. In his first start with #4 team (in 2014), he was very strong. He had the car to beat on the long run but ran into issues during the race that derailed his finish. Overall, 5 of his past 7 races at Sonoma has ended in 10th or better. Harvick also been good at WGI. In 6 of his past 7 races there, he has compiled finishes of 15th or better. In 2 of his past three races there, he has compiled finishes of 7th or better. He's finished 32nd last year, but it was because of an accident though. He's finished a lap down for that race.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Jimmie Johnson

Welcome to TimersSports

Jimmie Johnson is coming off another great season, a season that he's made history. Johnson won his 7th championship since entering the Cup series in 2001. He's now tied with Petty and Earnhardt for the most championships. Something, many (including myself) expected to happen sooner or later. Johnson and the 48 team seem to figure every new rule and point packages that Nascar hand them. So I expect 2017 to be no different for them. If you are worried about the 48 team having a bad season, then please don't then. They will perfectly fine, I can promise you that!

Johnson will be at his best the intermediate tracks, Johnson has made a living off this type of track. More often than not, most of his wins has came on the intermediate. He has won on the other type of track, but you can expect his best shot to win on this type of track. Hard to name specific type of intermediate tracks, which Johnson is great at. As, he's great just about everywhere honestly. Texas, Cali and Dover are his best intermediate tracks. Chicago and Atlanta aren't far behind, either though.

You can make a case for quite a few intermediate as his best track, but I lean towards Texas as his best track though. He has been great there for his entire career and recently been excellent. Over his past 10 races at Texas, he has won a ridiculous 5 times. While posting a total of 8 Top 6 finishes in the process. 7 of 8 top 6 finishes were actually top 4 finishes. Okay that a large data pool, I guess. Over his past 5 races: 11th, 4th, 1st, 1st and 1st. You want to bet against him here? Go away and take the field. But I feel better about Johnson's odds though. Who wouldn't with a 50% winning percentage over the past 5 years!?

Cali is considered Johnson's best track from a career point of view. In 22 starts, he has posted a career-best 6.5 average finish with 6 wins and 13 Top 5 finishes. How good is Johnson at Cali? Well, he went 4 straight races (2012 to 2015) without scoring a top 5 finish. Why is that important? He's never went back-back races without a top 5 finish at Cali. In his first 17 starts, he has just 5 finishes outside the top 5. He went to victory lane in last season's race, after leading 25 laps. He dominated at Cali in 2014 and should had went to victory lane. But that the screwy tire race though. Johnson blew a tire late in the race. He led 104 laps of the 205, despite finishing 24th. Something that stands out over the past 6 races at Cali? 4 of 6 races, he has started 14th or worse.

Obviously places like Dover, Atlanta and Chicago are also very good to him as well. I would put them in that order as well. I think his intermediate tracks goes in this order: Texas (or Cali), followed by Dover, Atlanta and Chicago. After that you have tracks like Darlington, Vegas, Charlotte and Kansas, where he has had success on in the past and should be good bets. Michigan and Homestead would be his weakest tracks. He will have potential on them, just not as good as the other though.

Short tracks will be another strength for him overall. He can (and likely will) run well at both Martinsville and Bristol. If you are familiar with Nascar, then you know how well Hendrick Motorsports has been at Martinsville for years. Johnson is the king here at Martinsville. For years it him and Jeff Gordon that own this place. Now it's Johnson. Has the competition took it to Johnson the last couple years? Oh yeah, the competition is stiff at Martinsville. He isn't running away with it, but he is still one of he best here.

Martinsville is one of his best tracks. His numbers from a career point of view is just incredible honestly. In 30 career starts, he has posted 9 wins with 19 Top 5 finishes and 24 Top 10 finishes. Johnson is finishing inside the top 5 over 60% of the time for his career. That's insane! His recent aren't as good, but he reminded us all that he is still an elite driver in last fall's race. He went to victory lane the last time, we were at Martinsville. In his last three races, he has finishes of 1st, 9th and 12th. The numbers trending in the right direction lately, so that's great. Over his past 9 races at Martinsville, he has won 33% of the time. While finishing nearly half of those races inside the top 5. Overall, there isn't a lot of to hate about Johnson at Martinsville. He will have major potential and upside, any time he goes to this place.

Bristol is considered one of Jimmie's worst tracks from a career point of view, ranked 17th of 23 tracks on the schedule. You know what amazing about that? What we considered a ''bad'' track for Jimmie, is a good track for any other track. In 30 career starts, he has 14.7 average finish with 14 Top 5 finishes and 17 Top 10 finishes. How he has done recently? 7 of his past 12 races ended in 5th or better. That's nearly 60% of the time. 9 of the past 12 (75%), races, he has finished 9th or better. That's a large data pool. Let's go smaller! Over his past 5 races, he has finished 7th or better in 4 of 5 races. That's great, but his performance in 2016 was concerning though. In 2 races (last year - 2016), he's compiled 15.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 79.9 driver rating. Also, only completed 46% of the laps inside the top 15. He completed all but one lap in total as well. That's why I find it concerning. His performance at Bristol wasn't good at all. Of course, normally a lot of things happen during the race. So I am sure something occurred during the race which affected his finishes. Still, I thought it was relevant to mention though.

Shorter flats will be a good spot for him, but no longer a great type of track though. Seems like the JGR and Penske teams has had a step on Johnson lately. Phoenix will always be a great track for Johnson. Many people are in shock what Harvick has done there recently, but it the same thing that Johnson did there from 2006 to 2011. Okay, sure Harvick has more wins (and better numbers) during his impressive streak of runs at Phoenix. However, during 5-year span from 2006 to 2011 (10 races), Johnson posted 10 straight Top 5 finishes. Including 4 wins in a 5-race stench, between November 2007 to November 2009. Johnson is still finding himself at Phoenix again, but it will only be matter of time before he get back to his old self. Over his past 5 races at Phoenix, he has compiled 3 finishes of 11th or better. One of them ended in 5th. His other two races ended in 38th and 39th. So, he has had mix finishes lately there. With that said, he haven't forgotten how to race at Phoenix.

Richmond and New Hampshire are both ''good'' track for Johnson. He hasn't dominated at either track recently, but he should be good regardless though. New Hampshire is considered one of his better tracks, but he hasn't ever dominate though. Just consistency good throughout his career. His numbers recent can (sort of) reflect that as well. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 4 finishes of 12th or better. However, no finish better than 5th though. So he's in that good but not great category as of late. Richmond, he's been better at recently than New Hampshire. Over his past 5 races, he has compiled 5 straight finishes of 11th or better. While, 4 of those 5 races ended in 9th or better as well. He's finished 11th and 3rd in last season's races. He was strong in the spring race but was pretty average in the fall's race. Finished 11th, posted 74.6 driver rating with 17.0 average running position. Also spent less than 50% of the race inside the top 15. Struggled really to be a factor at all. 48 team could have been trying things for the chase though. Who knows though.

The Larger flats will be a strength for Johnson, but he hasn't dominant the larger flats recently like he use to. Johnson had a tough time on the larger flats in 2016. As he's compiled 18.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and completed just 43% of the laps inside the top 15. He was very strong in the first Pocono race but finished 35th, while still posting a 92.6 driver rating. He's led 3 laps and held 11.0 average running position. Also, he's completed 74% of the laps inside the top 15 as well. Very strong, but the 2nd Pocono race was complete opposite. He started 23rd, finished 16th, held 20.0 average running position (!) and completed 18% of the laps inside the top 15. His 70.4 driver rating for the event was one of his worst season on the season. Johnson been really hit or miss lately at Pocono. He's been exactly that over his past 8 races. In his past 8 races (at Pocono), he has compiled 4 finishes of 6th or better. And has 4 finishes of 16th or worse. Hard to get a good read on him. Also, there's no real pattern to his finishes. Which makes Johnson a unknown at Pocono for the time being.

Indy is a great track for Johnson and at one point, I would call it ''his place''. However, the last couple seasons, he has been knocked off the top of the mountain. We don't really see the old Johnson that would dominant the weekend. From 2006 to 2013, Johnson was the man here. In that span, he scored 4 wins and additional 2nd place finish. So 5 of 8 races ended in 1st or 2nd. In the process, he's also posted driving driver rating above 124.0 in all 5 races. Pretty impressive! He has finishes of 3rd, 14th and 15th in his last three races though. HMS seemed to fall off in the summer around Indy for some reason. Big reason for his fall-off, still posted driver rating in the 90s range though.

Road courses should be a good spot to use him, he is vastly underrated at them honestly. Johnson usually runs well at both Sonoma and WGI. However, he's rarely get the credit though. Johnson is good at both places, but I would say that he is better at Sonoma though. Johnson been on it at Sonoma since finishing 9th in 2009. Over his past 8 races (since 2009), he has finished 13th or better in single race. He has 7 Top 9 finishes in that span. He's finished 13th in last season's race. Prior to that, he had 7 straight finishes inside the top 10. Johnson been more inconsistent at Watkins Glenn, but his numbers are still very good. Over his past 10 races at WGI, he has compiled 7 Top 10 finishes. Good news, right? Well sort of. 2 of his past 3 races ended in 28th or 40th. However, 4 of his past 6 races overall ended in 10th or better. So some good and some bad, like any driver really. Johnson should be counted on to run well at the road courses, just not dominant though.

Plate tracks were a weak spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016 for the most part. In 4 races, he compiled 24.0 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 74.0 driver rating. In 3 of those 4 races, he had results between 16th-23rd. 2 of 3 ended with him finishing on the lead lap. The other race (Daytona 500) ended in 35th. So he had finishes of 35th, 22nd, 23rd and 16th. That;s not good at all! Johnson has had success at both tracks, so I am not going to sit here and tell you that. I am not going to tell you how good of a plate racer or how good equipment, he is in. You know all of that already. Will it be a weakness compared to other type of tracks? Most likely. Can he be a decent fantasy option? You bet! I am not expecting the world, but wouldn't shocked if he went out and won a race at Daytona or Talladega. After all, he swept the Daytona races and finished 5th and 13th in 2013. He's very capable!

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Brad Keselowski

Welcome to TimersSports

Brad Keselowski had a pretty good 2016, but I will be honest I always gave him somewhat of a hard time. I don't know why, but I could never pick him in fantasy nascar in 2016. I have no clue why, but he just wasn't an appealing fantasy option to me. Every track, he had good numbers though. In 2017, you can expect good things from him. He will run well at every type of track. The Penske cars are usually good everywhere.

Keselowski will be one of the strongest drivers on the intermediate tracks in 2017. Every year, Keslowski is strong on the intermediate tracks, so no reason to think otherwise about 2017. He does a great job of consistency finishing inside the top 10, on a weekly basis. His best tracks on the intermediate tracks? Kentucky, Chicago and Dalrington. You could put several other tracks up with inside the top 5, but those three stand out to me overall.

Kentucky is his best track overall, I would say. Not only as a intermediate track but I mean in all of Nascar. There's no track that he is better on, than Kentucky. That's my opinion, of course though. In 6 career races at Kentucky, he has only finished worse 7th once. In those 6 races, he has compiled 3 wins already. Also, he has led 62 or more laps in 5 of 6 races. Like that? While, he also compiled 4 races with driver rating of 120 or better. That's ridiculous!

Darlington is another really good track for him and a place that's been really good to him lately. Over the past 2 seasons at Darlington, BK has compiled 5.5 average finish with 4.0 average running position and 127.9 driver rating. Performance-wise, Keselowski been the second-best driver at Darlington, over the past two seasons. He has qualified inside the top 2 in the past 2 races and led over 240 laps. Also, he is tied for a series-high 82 fast laps as well. Chicago is statistically considered Brad's second-best track from a career point of view. He hasn't had a bad race with the #2 team team yet. In 6 races, he has compiled 6 Top 8 finishes. Over those past 6 races at Chicago, he has compiled 4 Top 5 finishes. Including 2 wins, since the 2012 season. He's just amazing at Chicago. BK can be counted on at Chicago!

Shorter flats tracks should be a strong spot for Brad Keselowski in 2017! He's one of the best in the series at places like Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond. I would say that New Hampshire is his best track among the three. He has been awesome at New Hampshire, throughout his career with the #2 team. Over the past 11 races here, he has compiled 11 Top 15 finishes. He has never finished worse than 15th in a race, since 2011 season. More recently, he has finished 4 of 6 races inside the top 7. While, 7 of his past 10 races resulted in 7th or better. Keselowski simply been on it at New Hampshire!

Richmond is his second-best shorter flat racetrack overall. Over his past 11 races at Richmond, he has compiled 8 Top 12 finishes. That's solid in long term. But how has he's done in shorter term? Well over his past 6 races at Richmond, he's compiled 5 finishes of 11th or better. Including 3 finishes of 4th or better. Currently, Keselowski has knocked off three straight of 11th or better as well. Phoenix is his worst shorter flat. With that said, he's really good here. Over his past 10 races here, he has compiled 8 Top 11 finishes. More recently? He has compiled 4 Top 9 over his past 6 races. Not bad at all! Keselowski will be very good on all three shorter flats.

Short tracks will be places where Keselowski runs well, but doesn't always get the finishes. Martinsville is a good example of that. He has ran very well there with Penske, but has a couple poor finishes lately. Over the past 10 races at Martinsville, he has compiled 7 Top 9 finishes. His three non-top 9? 31st or worse. All three poor finishes has came over the past 6 races. Good news though? He also has compiled 3 finishes inside the top 5 over the past 6 races. So 3 finishes inside the top 5 and 3 finishes outside the top 30, in the past 6 races. Complete boom or bust!

Bristol is another good example of running well, doesn't always lead to results for Keselowski. Bristol been his worst track in terms of average finish over the past 2 seasons. He started off with 2 wins in his first 2 starts with the #2 team. Over his past 9 races? He has finished 14th or worse in 6 of 9 races. While, 5 of those races ended in 30th or worse. Over his past 5 races? 3 of 5 races ended in 18th or worse. Not great numbers at Bristol overall in terms of finishes.

Larger Flats will be a okay type of track for him in 2017, just not anything special though. I think Pocono is by far his better larger flat. It has been pretty kind to him and Penske in general in recent years. Keslowski been amazing over his past 7 starts at Pocono! Over his past 7 races, he has compiled 5 Top 6 finishes. Over his past 6 races? 4 finishes of 3rd or better. Including 3 straight Top 3 finishes over just his past three races. That's very solid! Indy been a lot tougher on him though. In 7 career starts at Indy, he has never finished better than 9th (twice) overall. In his past 4 races, three times, he's finished between 12th-21st. His lone non in that range? 10th back in 2015. With all of that said, he has led 15 and 17 laps in past two races. Also, his performance in his past two races been pretty good. In terms of driver ratings, his past two races ranked as 1st and 3rd in his career at Indy. His 2015 race was impressive honestly. Started 31st and finished 10th. While still posting a driver rating of 102. He's failed to do that in any other race at Indy!

I view Keselowski as one of the best plate racers in Nascar, he's always strong on the plates. So there's no reason to think otherwise about 2017! However, I do get the feeling, Keselowski get a lot of poor finishes at plate races because of his driving style. Not to point fingers, but he can be faulted for some of his poor finishes recently. Are they always his fault? Definitely not, some of them are just bad luck. However, he's never been one to be sit back and play it safe. Over his past 8 plate races, he has compiled just 4 Top 20 finishes. However, he has posted 2 wins as well. With all of that said, he has posted 6 Top 7 finishes over his past 11 races at Talladega. Including 3 wins! So while, he's posted some bad finishes. He's also been good at getting quality finishes with Penske, including wins. Daytona is basically the same way with him. 4 top 8 finishes over his past 9 races at Daytona. With two other races ending in the 18th-20th range. And the other three additional races ending in 21st or worse. You take the good with the bad with Keselwski, he has a very high ceiling. A risk, that's easily worth gamble!

Road courses been pretty good to Keselowski overall, I would say! That should be the case in 2017 as well for him. Watkins Glenn is a obvious great track for Brad. He's been good here since joining the #2 team. Over his past 6 races, he has compiled 5 Top 7 finishes. Also in that 6-race span, he's finished inside the top 3 four times. He's never won, but I think that will change very soon. How much longer can he go without winning here? I would guess not too much longer.

Sonoma been tougher on Keselowski overall. He started off very well at Sonoma with the #2 team. With career-high 10th in 2011 and 12th in 2012. Over his past 4 races, he has compiled finishes between 15th-22nd. You can learn about a lot about a driver's performance by looking at their driver ratings. A very handy tool to know how to read. And Brad's career best driver rating was 94.8 back in 2011, when he finished 10th. Over his past 5 races, his driver rating has not been better than 84.5. His past three races his driver rating been 79.7, 70.4 and 58.2. Of course, a lot goes on during the races. So there's various of reasons for a poor driver rating. However, it been a trend for Keselowski at Sonoma. Poor driver rating for 3 races is a trends. And trends are patterns, not bad luck. Slice it how you want, but Keselowski isn't that good at Sonoma. It is the more challenging road course, afterall too.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

Monday, January 30, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Matt Kenseth

Welcome to TimersSports

Matt Kenseth is coming off a up and down 2016 season, a season where he could had won the championship. The key words are ''could had''. If we didn't see a late caution at Phoneix, he likely win that race and advances to the next round at Homestead. Caution came out late and everything goes downhill for him. Much like his season, bad luck at end of the race costs him. That's so Matt Kenseth at JGR. Every time something good could happen to him, bad luck strikes. Onto 2017, what can we expect? I think, we can expect Kenseth to keep producing really good numbers like he has in recent seasons.

The intermediate tracks will be a very strong spot for Matt Kenseth in 2017. Much like his JGR teammates, Kenseth should be a top driver in 2017 on this type of track. It is a type of track that the Toyotas has dominated over the past couple season. Along with Hendrick Motorsports, of course. Hard to say what are his top 3 intermediate tracks, but I say Texas, Kentucky and Atlanta. You could make a good case for any track honestly. He's pretty good everywhere. Just comes down to your personal preference though. His best track to me is Texas. This is place is a great track for him, not many tracks does he have more success. In 28 career starts, he has 9.4 average finish with 3 wins and 18 Top 10 finishes. Also, among the 1.5 mile tracks, he has led the most laps at Texas. Those are positive things to like about him, and they better as you dig deeper too. Over the past 12 races at Texas, he has compiled 10 Top 12 finishes. Yes, it's a pretty large simple size and is hard to get specific data. I agree, so let's look at more recent data. Over the past 6 races, he has compiled 4 Top 11 finishes. Including 3 Top 7 finishes in those 4 Top 11 finishes overall. Not bad at all. Could be better, but I won't complain with those numbers at Texas.

Kentucky is a track that has limited Cup data, but statistically it is one of Matt's best tracks on the schedule. In 6 career starts at Kentucky, he has never finished worse than 8th. Over his past 4 races at the track, he has compiled 3 Top 5 finishes. He finished in 8th in last season's race, but he was far better than that though. In that event, he's compiled 4.0 average running position with 113.8 driver rating. That ranked as the 3rd-best ARP and 4th-best driver rating. Realistically, he should had finished inside the top 5 again for the 4 straight time with JGR. Alanta is another great track for him. Over the past 2 seasons (minus last season's race), he has finished 5th and 2nd. In last season's event, he probably had the car to beat. He led a lot of laps early on and was looking really good. However, around the halfway point, he got a bullshit penalty. Long story-short, Matt Kenseth goes multiple laps down and finishes 19th. Prior to that, he may had the car to beat. Kenseth been awesome at Atlanta the past couple seasons.

Matt Kenseth will be very strong on the shorter flats in 2017, it is a very good type of track. Of course, he had some piss poor luck in 2016 at them. In fact, he had terrible finishes at both Richmond and Phoenix. Two races, where he probably should have won or had a great shot. Let's start the start, he didn't have any problems last season, New Hampshire! Kenseth just been stupid awesome at New Hampshire lately. Over his past 7 races there, he has compiled 5 Top 4 finishes. That's crazy good and his past three races has resulted in: 2nd, 2nd and 1st. Over this 7-hot streak, he has compiled 3 wins and another runner up finish. Reminds me a lot of Kyle Busch's hot streak at New Hampshire, in fact that streak was just before this one. Joe Gibbs Racing just been dominant lately at this track.

Richmond is another really good track for Kenseth. He's good here, no doubt. He been a machine at Richmond lately. Over his past 9 races there, he has compiled 7 top 7 finishes. While 3 of his past 4 races ended in 7th or 1st. In last season's event, he's finished 38th. Not good, but he finished over 70 laps down. While still posting nearly 100 driver rating. He had a top 5 for that event, before ending in the garage. I would say that Phoenix is his overall weakest type track. Over his past 7 races at PIR, he has compiled just 3 Top 7 finishes. It's not quite as bad as its look though. If you take out last fall's bad (21st) finish, his numbers are very good. Over his past 6 races, he has compiled 4 Top 12 finishes overall. Not bad numbers at Phoenix, just not as good as Richmond or New Hampshire.

The larger flats in recent seasons been very good to Matt Kenseth, he has even ran well at Pocono. A place that use to be considered one of his worst tracks. His latest breakout at Pocono, almost came out of nowhere. Because from August 2012 to August 2014, he had no finishes better than 22nd. That was 5-race span. Over his past 4 races (June 2015 to August 2016), he has compiled 3 Top 7 finishes. He won back in August 2015. However, that was the infamous ''fuel mileage'' race. Everyone in front of Kenseth ran out of fuel, except him. He was pretty good that day overall though. Posted nearly 120 driver rating, which says he's about a top 5 driver. I still say he isn't a top driver at Pocono though. He has some work to do, before we can trust him at Pocono.

Indy is his much better larger flat track overall. Kenseth hasn't had a bad race at Indy with JGR, yet. In 4 starts with JGR, he has compiled 4 straight Top 7 finishes. Meaning, he hasn't finished worse than 7th place. In fact, 3 of the past 4 races ended in 5th or better. Kenseth finished a career-high 2nd place in last season's race at Indy. With that said, it was the 3rd time in his career that he has accomplished that feat. So close, so many times. Maybe he will mark it off his list over the next couple seasons? Guess, we will find out soon.

The short tracks been great tracks for Kenseth since joining JGR and that should continue in 2017 as well. When you are looking at his numbers over the past couple season from afar, they look terrible. When folks, that's the thing! You cannot just judge a book by it cover. Bristol ranked as his worst track over the past two seasons, in terms of average finish. In reality, Bristol is one of Kenseth's best tracks overall. Over the past 7 races at Bristol, he has compiled 3 top 3 finishes and 4 top 13 finishes overall. That's good, but why such a poor average finish lately? That has a lot to do with 3 straight finishes of 36th or worse. He got involved in a wreck last summer at Bristol. He pancaked the wall in the spring race in 2016. And had an engine let go in 2015 summer race. Not good, but he been very competitive since joining JGR at Bristol. In fact, this has always been a great track for him.

Martinsville is a underrated track for him. People are still thinking that Matt is a terrible driver there, and that was true at one time. Yeah, he wasn't super good back in his Roush days. However, JGR is a far better short track program though. Over his past 6 races (excluding Martinsville fall 2015 - infamous Kenseth/Logano wreck), he has compiled 5 Top 6 finishes over that 6 race span. He was awesome in last season's races. Finished 15th and 4th, but was much better than that. He led 176 laps in the fall race and led another 45 laps in the spring race. Also posted an average driver rating over 120.0 for the two races combined.

Plate tracks will always be a place that Matt Kenseth will have a shot at, but honestly he is in a sense a little overrated. Sure, he is a great plate racer. He's kind like Jamie Mac. Really good at using the draft and running well, but has shit luck for finishes though. Over the past couple seasons, he has been terrible for plate race finishes. Let's start at Daytona! Over the past 8 races at Daytona, he has finished 20th or worse in 6 races. While 4 of the past 5 races at Daytona has ended in 20th or worse. 3 of those 4 finishes has ended in 23rd or worse. Not good numbers at all.

At Talladega, he been even worse in terms of finishes with JGR. Over the past 6 races at Talladega, he has finished 23rd or worse in 5 of past 6 races. Kenseth actually have led in 3 straight races at Talladega, yet have finishes of 28th, 23rd and 26th to show for. Another thing about Kenseth? He has qualified 8th or better in his past 4 races at Talladega. However, his highest finish is 23rd. Plate races just haven't been good to him for whatever reason at JGR!

Road courses are the final type of track, that we will look at for Matt! Road courses are somewhat of a underrated type of track for him. People say it is a major weakness for him, but I don't know if you can say that is true though. Sonoma? Okay sure. His last top 10 finish was back in 2008. His past 4 finishes ended in 20th, 21st, 42nd and 19th. Not good at all. How about Watkins Glenn? He been onto something there for sure. Over his past 5 races there, he has compiled 4 Top 10 finishes. While 9 of his past 10 races at Watkins Glenn ended in 14th or better. Hard to say that this is a poor track for him. In fact, it been one of his better tracks for awhile now.

Matt Kenseth is coming off a so and so season in 2016. He didn't have a bad year by any means, but it could have been better though. In 2017, you can expect for him to keep up his usual numbers. Probably 2 or 3 wins with double digit top 5 finishes. That's the normal, we have come to expect from him at JGR. He will have his good days and then there will be those bad days as well. His good days will likely be on the intermediate tracks, shorter flats, Indy and WGI. The plates, short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol) and Sonoma will likely be weak areas for him. I think the short tracks will be where you can use him, but there extra risk. He just has such poor luck ,it seems he finds trouble. If you are in a big hole early, then I might consider rolling the dice with him. Overall, I would expect another solid year from him.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

Sunday, January 29, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kyle Larson

Welcome to TimersSports

Kyle Larson is coming off a very good 2016 season, he's probably the biggest turnover from beginning of the season to end of the season. CGR lacked speed often in the first 10 races. After that, Larson and the 42 team were fast on a weekly basis almost. Several close calls before finally breaking through to victory lane. Larson is high risk/high reward driver. He will have his bad days, but he is very well-rounded. He can run well at any kind of track. His problem? Being consistent. What will he do in 2017? Well let's find out!

Intermediate tracks

The intermediate tracks will be good and bad for Larson. He will have some really good performance but then the next race just have shit luck. Not many drivers will be as inconsistent as Larson, but his upside is so large though. Hard to pass on him, when he looks really strong during the weekend. I have found that you should focus on Larson at his best racetracks. Use him at his best tracks and then let the chips fall wherever after that. His best intermediate tracks? Michigan, Dover and Homestead. You can also add Chicago and Darlington to that list.

Homestead is Larson's best track by far and it is not even close, either. Larson loves Homestead and has been a complete beast the past two seasons there. In 2015, he had the car to beat on the long run. Just never had the track position to get the lead and lacked short-run speed. In last season's event, Larson was a stud on both short runs and long runs. Only difference was that Larson could stench out the lead to 3 or 4 seconds easy once everyone tires worn down. He led a race-high (and career-high) 132 laps. Most impressive about Larson at Homestead? He has never qualified better than 20th in 4 starts, and that was with the #51 team in 2013. Despite that, he has finished 15th or better in every start. Also over the past two seasons, he has nearly double the fast laps than anybody else. He has 108 fast laps in the past two Homestead races, while Kyle Busch (2nd-most) has 63. While, we are at it, he's led the most laps over the past two seasons as well at 134 laps. He's great at Homestead, you better plan to use him.

Dover is Larson's next best intermediate track overall. It's not your typical 1.5 or even 2.0 mile intermediate track, but still considered as an intermediate track. Only 1-mile in length, but the speeds here are incredible. One of my favorite tracks on the schedule and Larson loves it, too! He has found some success here so far in his career. He finished 25th in last fall's race, after suffering mechanical early in the event. He could never recover and was eliminated from the chase. In his first 5 races at Dover, he compiled 5 top 11 finishes. He finished 11th in his debut at Dover in 2014. He followed that up wit finishes of 6th, 3rd, 9th and 2nd. His most notable finish was in 2016 spring race. That race could be responsible for giving his season a springboard. He qualified 24th for that race and nearly went a lap down after just 100 laps mark. 100 laps later, he was leading the race and eventually would finish 2nd and led second-most laps to only Kevin Harvick.

Intermediate tracks to avoid him? Kentucky, Kansas and Atlanta. At those three tracks in 12 starts, he's posted just 5 Top 20 finishes. That's less than 50%. He has one top 20 finish apiece at both Kentucky and Atlanta. Better places to use him!

Larger Flat tracks 

I love him on the large flat racetracks, he's so smooth at both Indy and Pocono. You could make a case for him as a top 5 driver on the large flat tracks over the past three seasons. Not many drivers can say that, especially not a driver with three seasons of experience in Cup. In 9 starts combined (at both Indy and Pocono), he's finished 12th or better in every start. That's crazy good! Pocono is his more proven track though. In 6 starts at Pocono, he's finished 12th or better in every start. He has better finishes in the first Pocono, with finishes of 5th, 8th and 11th. Problem is? He is trending the wrong way. 11th in his most recent start. The 2nd Pocono races? He has finishes of 11th, 12th and 6th. The finishes are worse, but his in-race numbers are better. In the first Pocono races, he's posted 14.3 average running position and 87.7 driver rating. Not bad numbers at all. However, his numbers in the 2nd Pocono races are better, despite lower finishes. In the 2nd Pocono races, he posted 9.0 average running position and 103.6 driver rating. Doesn't really mean much, unless you are big believer in trends.

Indy is the other large flat racetrack on the schedule, and he is just as good there. In 3 starts at Indy, Larson has finishes of 7th, 9th and 5th. In those 3 races, he's posted 8.0 average running position and 104.8 driver rating. Larson has topped 103.0 driver rating in every start at Indy. Very few drivers are able to say something like that! Larson will be very strong on the large flat racetracks, you can make a case that it is his best type of track.

Short Flat tracks

The short flat tracks been good to Larson so far in his first three seasons. He has had his bad days, but still pretty solid overall. He doesn't really have a standout track yet, but Richmond is probably his best track. In 6 starts at Richmond, he hasn't finished worse than 16th. Even better? Take out last April's (2016 spring race) 15th and his debut's in April  2014, he been stout. Those are his worst two performances overall. Lowest two finishes and driver ratings among the 6 races. The other 4 races?  9.3 average finish, 10.3 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. He's legit at Richmond, folks!

New Hampshire is also good to him and was really good to him in his rookie season, but just haven't been the same the past couple season. In 6 starts at New Hampshire, he's posted 5 Top 17 finishes. Yes it is good, but not great. Over his past 4 starts, he's finished 3 of 4 races in 17th or 31st. He did finish 10th in last fall (2016) race though. That's a good sign. Also, he ran far better last fall than his did in those three previous races, as well. For Larson's sake, I hope he can keep the turn-around going. Phoenix is the last short flat racetrack. He's good there, too. In the past 5 races at Phoenix, he's finished 13th or better in 4 races. He finished 3rd in last season (fall) race. Three times in that span, he's posted a driver rating above 92.0. Larson will go on the short flat racetracks and have top 10 potential almost every time.

Short tracks 

The short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol) will be tough for him. He's just cannot seem to get good finishes consistency at either track. He's good at Bristol, no doubt. From pure potential and talent, he's a top 5 driver. He's potentially was a top 5 driver in both races in 2016 at Bristol! The first race, he was running 3rd and had a mechanical issue. In the second race, he was running around the top 5 and got involved in the Kyle Busch's wreck. He had great long run speed in both races as well. In Larson's first three races at Bristol, he's finished between 7th-12th. The past three races just been pure terrible luck.

Martinsville been a tough spot for him so far in his career. In his first 4 starts, he had just one finish better than 20th. And that was 19th place in November 2015. He shown major improvements in 2016, as he's posted finishes of 14th and 3rd. He also posted 9.0 average running position and 99.3 driver rating. Far better in the spring race than the fall race. During the fall race, he's finished a lap down in 14th. Still had an 11.0 average running position and completed 89% inside the top 15. Larson's improvements at Martinsville were incredible in 2016. Another example how much progress he has made from his rookie year to his 3rd year.

Road courses 

The Road courses will be strong type of track for Kyle Larson. I want you to say hello to one of the most ''underrated'' road course racer in the series! You are probably thinking, he is? Oh yes, I don't think many people realize how good Larson is. Pretty impressive for Larson at his age, running as good as he has on the road courses. Most young drivers struggle on the road courses and don't do any better than middle teens, but in year 3, Larson was very good at both tracks. He was an legit driver at Sonoma, but a speeding penalty did him in though. He had a top 5 run going early for him, if I remember right he faded to the top 10 at one point. However, he got a speeding penalty that really cost him late. He had to rally late to get a solid 12th place finish. He had finishes of 15th and 28th in his first two starts at Sonoma. Something happen to him in 2015 that cost him a better finish. In 2014, he had power steering issues. If imagine having no power steering at Sonoma. A super challenging road course that requires a lot of braking. It was amazed, he didn't drop further down the leaderboard than that.

Larson been very good at Watkins Glenn as well. In his first start at the track, he struggled throughout the weekend. Right, like most rookies do. He dropped to 28th at one point. Unlike most rookies, Larson took all he's learned that weekend and then made a hard charge to the front. In the final 20 laps or so, he fought hard from mid-pack and finished 4th. That was impressive to see from him. That's the difference from Larson and guys like Dillon, Blaney and Elliott. He seems to process the information quicker as a driver. In his 2nd start (in 2015), he's finished 12th. He had 11.0 average running position and 99.4 driver rating for that event. So he finished right around where he ran most of the day. In 2016, he was much better than his final position shows though. The numbers in the race, just don't justify how good Larson was that day. There were a lot of crazy pit cycles and penalties. Larson was hit with a huge penalty while running inside the top 5. Huge blow that put him deep in the running order, however things worked out for late in the race. He got back with the leaders and ran top 10 for last portion of the race. On the final restart, Larson was able to charge back inside the top 5. However, AJ Dinger on the final lap wrecked while running 4th. Up and down day for Larson ended on the downside.

Plate tracks 

Larson's biggest improvement may been his finishes on the plates in 2016. In his first two seasons (8 races), he's finished only 2 races inside the top 20 of 8 races. Both of those races came in 2014 at Talldega. Last season in 4 plate races, he's posted 3 Top 10 finishes. Even better? He swept the top 6 in both at Daytona. Something, I didn't think was possible for him. This is the same driver that said, he would like to see the plate venues demolished before last season started. Maybe the Restictor plate gods heard him and said, ''Is that so Kyle? I will teach you.'' I am not convinced that Larson is legit on the plates after one good season, but I feel better about him for sure.

***All stats are from Driveraverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com

Twitter - @Garryy12