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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-Jamie Mac: Jamie Mac is coming off his finish of the season at Talladega and now inside the top 5 in points, too. Jamie is strong many tracks, but his biggest strength right now is the intermediate. Yes, even though, he was pretty good on the plate tracks. Still, I believe the intermeidate tracks are CGR bread and butter right now. They have the speed and they aren't afraid to show it, either. Jamie is consistent and that's a great thing in fantasy nascar! I think Jamie could be a under the radar pick this weekend, because all of his bad luck at Kansas over the past few years. In his past 6 races at Kansas, he has finished 20th or worse in 5 of 6 races. Yes, that is not a typo, either. Jamie is usually consistent, but not consistency bad like at Kansas. CGR is having a season kinda like in 2014. Where their cars are very fast. That year, Jamie had top 5 cars in both events. He had mechanical issues running in the top 5 in both events. Don't be fooled by the results. Jamie could be the fantasy pick that put you over the top in certain formats.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski been very strong this season and that won't change this weekend at Kansas. He will have a fast car and that's pretty much expected. The Penske Fords has been pretty strong everywhere, but I think this is the kind of track that they are most dangerous on. Keselowski has finished 6th or better at every intermediate track this season. The most similar track? Las Vegas. He's started on the pole, finished 5th and led a season-high (on this type of track) of 89 laps. When you look at his numbers on the the intemdiate tracks it is almost impossible to say that he won't be contender. Now, if you are a past history kind of guy, then that's another story. As Brad Keselowski haven't finished in the top 5 since 2011 here. Finished 3rd in October 2011 and finished 1st in July 2011. Since then, he haven't finished any better than 6th. He's finished 6th in 2013. In his past 4 races, he has finished 3 of 4 in the top 10. No finish better than 7th place though.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is having a very unimpressive season so far and I for one didn't expect it from him. RCR in general seems rattled and not very good right now. Even on the shorter tracks, they don't seem to have the speed. Especially Dillon though. Heck, he couldn't even finish the race at Talladega. That's pretty much sums up Dillon's season so far with the No.3 team. He does have a pretty good track record here. As Dillon has posted 3 Top 8 finishes over his past 5 Kansas starts here. Including back-to-back 6th place finishes in 2016. Pretty good, right? Yeah, I would have to agree about that. Problem is he have been complete garbage on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. His best finish is 25th at Vegas and he sucked there pretty bad. If you want to risk using Dillon based on recent history at Kansas, then that's fine. But I want no part of his mediocre ass!
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick was having a really good race at Talladega and then the big-one happened and he got a piece of it at the end. After that, his car was really the same and had to settle for 23rd place finish. Now, he get another crack at an intermediate track. They been good to him this season, other than finishing 38th, after that wreck at Vegas. He was capable of being a top 5 finisher in every single race on this type of track. Espeically on the 1.5 intermediate cook cutter tracks. Dominated Atlanta and finished 9th. Running top 10 strong before issues at Vegas and finished 4th, while leading 77 laps at Texas. He's started on the pole at Texas for whatever it is worth, too. Kansas, also been awesome track for Kevin lately. In his past 7 races here at Kansas, he's finished in the top 2 in 5 races. His lone non-top 2 finishes? October 2015 and October 2014. He had top 5 cars in both events.
5-Kasey Kahne: Congrats, if you took a shot with Kahne then you look like genius right now. As he's finished in the top 5 for the first time since Atlanta. That's the good news, but don't get too excited. It was Talladega afterall. It does not change that, 5 of his previous 6 races (before Talladega), he's finished 20th or worse. His lone good finish in that span was Martinsville in 14th. He had good finishes of 12th and 4th at the first two intemdiate tracks of the season. But his finishes were much better than his performance. I say, he was about a top 15 to top 20 driver for both events. Got lucky at the end though. His numbers at Kansas since joining HMS been good overall, I will say that. In 10 career starts with the #5 team, he has posted 6 Top 10 finishes. While finishing 8 of 10 races in the top 16. He's finished 17th or better in his past 4 races here, with finishes of 10th and 4th in the past two spring races. That's good and all, but I don't trust him to deliver. If you do, then awesome more Kahne for you. But I have trust issues with him and he haven't shown me anything that he is legit fantasy option this season.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin got off to another slow start (as I expected him to - look back at offseason content for more in-depth of that), but he is starting to put together some nice races though. He's finished 10th at Bristol and led 10 laps. Then he's finished 3rd at Richmond, while leading a season-high 59 laps. And now, we can add 11th place finish on 43 laps led. That's a pretty solid three stretch for Hamlin. That's the best three-race stretch for him overall this season. Kansas, however, have not been very good to him recently though. He's won here back in April 2012 (9 races ago), but he haven't had much luck since. In his past 8 races here, he 's finished 13th or worse in 6 of 8 races. He only has posted 2 top 10 finishes since October 2012. Even worse? Both of his top 10 finishes were in the fall event in October 2014 and October 2015. I am not saying that Hamlin is a terrible option this weekend, but I am saying that he is likely nothing more than a top 10 driver. And that is likely best-case possible for him, too. I am not ready to trust him yet. However, if he can put together a few more races together, I will have him more on my fantasy radar down the road!
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is having pretty good season, despite some bad luck nearly on a weekly basis. But you never hear about him being wrecked at Las Vegas on the final lap, or medicinal failures at Bristol or penalties at Richmond. Nope, you just hear how he haven't won. Yeah, he haven't won and that's completely okay. Because he's fast every week and contending up front at some point. Trust me, the 18 car will be in victory lane sooner or later. Will it happen this weekend? Maybe. A few years ago, this was considered his worst track on the schedule. However, over the past two seasons, he's hold the best average finish in the series. His numbers the past few seasons been pretty damn impressive! In his past four races here, he's finished 5th or better. Including a win here in last spring's event. Before finishing 3rd in October 2014, he had finished better than 6th place at this track. Now, he has 4 top 5 finishes to his name. Not too bad, wouldn't you agree?
19-Daniel Suarez: There is not a lot to say about Daniel honestly. He is a young cup driver that was moved up too soon,but it was unavoidable in his case though. And that how it goes sometimes in this sport. Things happens and it is what it is. I think Daniel will keep on getting better as the season goes on. As of right now, he is nothing more than a top 25 driver. He may sneak into the top 20 or top 15 at end of races. He will more than likely spend much of the race in the low to middle 20s for the race. He's a rookie, it all about finishing out races and running laps. That's exactly what Daniel has done this season so far. Quite successfully, too. I have yet seen Daniel make a major mistake and tear up his car. He's very patient and eager to learn throughout the race. Good qualities to have as a rookie cup driver!
20-Matt Kenseth: Can we all agree that Matt Kenseth just have shit for luck since he's joined Joe Gibbs Racing? Yeah, I think that pretty much covers it overall. Anytime this dude have a good run going, something comes in and demolishes it. He will win this season, but much like last season, he will have to be patient. Last season, I thought the Kansas race was the event that was a stepping stone for him. I think that race gave him some confident and eventually led him to winning at Dover. Could we see a similar race this weekend from Kenseth? I wouldn't rule it out by any means. He's a two-time winner at Kansas and has won both races in the past 5 seasons here. Believe it or not, Kenseth may have been the 2nd-best driver over the past three races here. He's led 153 laps in October 2015 and finished 9th. He's led 3 laps and finished 4th in May 2016. While leading 116 laps and finishing 9th in last fall's event. His average driver rating in that 3-race stench is 124.0. If you are not familiar with driver ratings. Anything over 120 is impressively stupid good. Want to gamble? Kenseth may be your guy!
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney has been really good this season and I think Kansas really fit into Blaney's wheelhouse. This is Blaney kind of track and he will be fast. Bank on that, the 21 team has been bringing fast cars to the track all year. The intermediate tracks been pretty kind to him, too. Las Vegas and Texas are two tracks that I would highly recommend looking at when studying for Kansas. Blaney started 3rd at Las Vegas and finished 7th. He's started 2nd at Texas and led 153 laps, while finishing 12th. Last year in the spring's event, he was a top 10 drive for the entire event and finished 5th. He was 5th to 7th place good for the event, in my opinion. Blaney is someone I really do like this weekend. He's fast and has a car that should be capable of starting up front.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is having a nice season, despite getting involved in the big one at Talladega. The 22 Ford was very strong, but was in the wrong place at the wrong time, sadly. That's what happens in plate racing. It's all about luck. Outside of Talladega, Logano only has one finish worse than 6th place this season and that was Phoenix. He's wrecked in that race, due to bad breaks, if I recall correctly. Otherwise, Logano has finished in the top 6 in the other 8 races. Pretty impressive! Prior to finishing 32nd at Talladega, he has posted 5 straight top 5 finishes. Kansas is another great track for him, too. Not just great, but I would say that it is his very best track on the schedule. You are like, wait, he's only has 11.3 average finish over the past 4 races though. Yeah, he does. Don't believe everything you see, either. He's finished 38th in one of those races. Misleading results, folks. In 6 of his past 7 races at Kansas, Joey has finished 5th or better. If Logano doesn't have issues, he will more than likely be a top 5 driver.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott is having a pretty good season, but it is not mind-blowing like so many people were predicting. Personally, in the off season, I thought he was due for a bit of a down year in 2017. So far, I cannot say it has been disappointing, but cannot really say it been better than his rookie year. So far in 2017, Elliott has shown top 5 potential often throughout the race weekend, but only able to run top 10 during the race. Sounds familiar? Shades to Kyle Larson's second season in 2015. He's started off the season great with almost winning the Daytona 500, then posting back-to-back top 5 finishes at Atlanta and Vegas. Since? He's cooled off for the most part honestly. Led a lot of laps at Phoenix, but finished 12th. Finished 3rd at Martinsville, but not really relevant for this weekend. Finished 9th and 10th at Cali and Texas. But he have now gone 4 straight races without leading any laps. What am I a getting at exactly? Elliott has great potential this weekend, but he gonna have to prove to me that he has a winning capable car. Because I am only buying him as a top 10 finisher. There's a difference between having top 5 potential and closing out the deal. Elliott haven't been able to finish these races like he should. Prove me wrong, Chase!
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is having a okay season, I guess. Sure, he's won at Phoenix on strategy, but not much otherwise. Even at the short tracks, I don't get the feeling that RCR is there yet with the competition. They have obviously lost some of what they had the past few years. Sure, they haven't been overpowering drivers for the lead, but they been better than this. I personally think the intermediate tracks are a weakness for the 31 team and RCR in general right now. They don't have the speed to be top 10 contenders. And that's a problem for us fantasy nascar folks. Regardless, I think Newman will be a top 15 driver. Probably in that 13th-16th normal range for him. So I guess, Newman isn't too far off his usual self, but it would be nice to have some top 10 upside, too. His record at Kansas is pretty good. He's finished 12th or better in 6 straight Kansas races. If that trend continues, he will have his best finish on an intermediate track this season. As his highest finish is 15th.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch is having a decent season overall. He just have no luck, sometimes this season so far. He does currently have back-to-back top 10 finishes right now though. His numbers at Kansas always been just good enough and like his brother, always seemed to have bad luck. For whatever reason, his luck lately has changed as well. Currently, Kurt has 4 straight top 13 finishes here. Including 3 top 10 finishes. Those Busch brother may have figured this Kansas place out finally. Maybe, right? I am not jumping on the Kurt Busch bandwagon quite yet. But if he put together a few more solid runs (and finishes), then he's going to be on my fantasy radar. As of right now, he's nothing more than a top 10 driver. Like usual, his ceiling doesn't quite reach out to the top 5.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is having an amazing season so far in 2017. Through 10 races, the young CGR driver haven't finished worse than 17th. Outside of his worst track (Martinsville), he have not finished worse than 14th place. Pretty good for him, right? Damn straight it is, but now another roadblock is in the way. Kansas Speedway. This has been a very difficult spot for him overall. He's finished 12th and 2nd in his rookie season, but since he haven't had much success (or luck). In his past 4 races, his best finish is 15th place. Including three straight finishes of 29th or worse. Yikes, that is bad! Of course, those finishes aren't his fault. Just bad luck striking at bad times for him. That's racing. This season, he has been a beast on the intermediate tracks. Don't be shocked, if Kyle Larson put that 42 car into victory lane!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is having another productive, but not really standout seaosn through 10 races. I cannot say that I am impressed by the 7-time champion. But I am not really disappointed, either. As he has two wins under his belt through 10 races. I cannot dismiss that. But at the same time, he haven't done much else to standout to me honestly. Currently, he does have 4 straight top 11 finishes. But his past two finishes been finishes of 8th and 11th. Not exactly anything to write about overall. His record at Kansas is pretty stout though. In his past 4 races here, he has compiled 6.2 average finish with 3 top 4 finishes. Overall, Johnson has finished 14 of the past 16 races in the top 10. So there's a pretty good chance, he will likely finish there once again. The bigger question is will he challenge for the win? I don't know honestly. Johnson for the most part (same with HMS as a whole) has had conflicting results on similar tracks this season. So who knows how he will do, to be tell you the truth!
77-Erik Jones: I had very high hopes for Jones this season and I think he is still very capable of winning a race. But he is a young driver, so that first win may take awhile. Regardless, I think Jones is more matured and ready than most drivers are as rookies. He has talent and he will on a weekly basis be a top 10 contender. Later in the season, you can expect to see him be in the top 5 more often. Especially when we come back to these tracks for a second time. This weekend, I have high hopes for him as I think this is the type of track, where he will be most productive on. Kansas is a good track for him. He was running in the top 5 with the 18 car a few years ago, before slamming into the wall.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr is having a really good season, but got involved in that big wreck at Talladega. It happens and he should rebound pretty nicely at Kansas. This is a great track for him and he has been one of the best drivers this season at the intermediate tracks, too. He has posted 4 straight top 15 finishes here. Including straight up dominating last spring's race by leading 197 laps. Before, he had to make an extra pit stop under green. That was a killer to watch, as I saw all of my lineup go to smoke. Just brutal! Hopefully, he brings another bad-ass car to the track this weekend. I don't think he forgot that a win here escaped him last year!
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is having a really tough season so far overall. I am not a Dale Jr fan by any means, but I hate seeing him struggling as much as he is. As 4 of his past 5 races ended in 22nd or worse. The ending for Talladega for him was pretty much how most of his season has gone. Through 10 races, Dale Jr only has 1 top 10 finish. That's rough! He will try to get things headed in the right direction at Kansas. History may not be on his side though. As three of his past four has ended in 15th or worse. However, two of his past three spring races ended in 5th and 3rd. In fact, Dale Jr has three top 5 finishes at Kansas in his career. All three finishes came in the first Kansas race of the season. If there were any reason to believe he could have a good weekend, then it is that most likely.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
