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Once again this weekend, the Fantasy Nascar update will be posted before qualifying is held on Sunday. Even if I wanted to write up some post-qulaifying content (few hours before the race), I would be at Watkins Glen itself on Sunday morning. Anyways, I am pretty excited for the race on Sunday afternoon. I love road course racing and Watkins Glen is always pretty entertaining. A few things to know: A) Success at Sonoma doesn't always translate to Watkins Glenn. These two road courses are vastly different overall. 2) Qualifying isn't as important as most weeks. Pit strategy will jumble the running order several times. When the cautions fall will be huge, it usually help determine the winner.
A decade and half ago, there would be the obvious favorites heading into the road courses and then a gap to rest of the field. Just because certain drivers would go out and dominate. Now it is pretty close in terms of competitive. I think teams in general are working harder to get better on the road courses. I think drivers are more focus on acquiring that skill-set on this type of track.
Anyhow, here's my top 10 drivers entering Sunday!
1. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch is the man here at Watkins Glen. He loves this racetrack and it seems to love him, too. He was very fast in the limited practice time, we saw from him on Saturday. Not only has he been fast this weekend, but that has been the common theme all season long. The past two races this season, Rowdy has led the most laps. He is looking for a third straight race, where he leads the most laps. Personally, I think he does just that. He has started on the pole multiple times this season and usually when he does, he goes on to lead a bunch of laps. I think that will be difficult at a road course, but he has one of the cars to beat (in my mind) headed into raceday on Sunday. Since the 2007 season, Kyle has only finish worse than 8th place and that was back in 2014. In 3 of his last six races here, he has finished in the top 3. It's hard to ignore his speed and his track record!
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr is one of those guys that come to the racetrack and flat out has speed. I don't know if he has that same kind of speed this weekend (as other places we been to), but I don't think we had enough of track time to truly find out either. I had a similar opinion last weekend of him. He didn't display dominant speed, but you knew you would have something for the race win. And this is a great racetrack for Martin Truex Jr. I think he is a great road course racer, maybe even a little underrated. He showed everyone what he was capable of at Sonoma, earlier this season, before his engine expired. He was so happy with that car, his team put a new engine in it and using it once again. Different kind of road courses, but the same driver. I think Watkins Glen has more to do speed than pure skill-set. In his past six races at Watkins Glen, he has compiled 4 finishes of 10th or better. He also have 2 top 5 finishes during that span as well. His last top 5 finish was back in 2013. If this season is any indication, then he can add to that add on Sunday afternoon.
3. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski is one the best drivers in the series here at Watkins Glen and is by far his better road course. With that said, he did finish very well at Sonoma, earlier this season. Still, he has a lot of speed in his car and is someone most of us expected to be fast. And that exactly, what we have seen for the most part. I love the #2 car this weekend and probably should be considered one of the heavy favorites to win the pole and contend for the race win. I think these road course races fits right into the #2 team wheelhouse. Especially since pit strategy is a big thing at a place like Watkins Glenn. As good as Kyle Busch ha been here, I think Keselowski numbers are even better. In his last six starts at Watkins Glen, he has 4 finishes of 3rd or better. That's 66.6% of the time, since the 2011 season. Ridiculous! Don't overlook the driver of the No.2 Ford! He was very quick on Saturday and looked stable.
4. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is one of the best road course racers in the sport over the past couple seasons and he is also one of the most underrated. I think a lot of that has to do with his lack of wins and in general bad luck. He won back at Sonoma and was strong in both road courses in last season's events. But he didn't get a good result at Watkins Glen last season though. I think since, he doesn't have a great average finish the past couple seasons here, people just overlook him. That been something I noticed this week. Not a lot of love for him in the fantasy nascar community. The guys above are getting most of high praises. Not to say, he is being disregarded, but I think he deserves a little more attention. He finished 7th in 2014 and 3rd in 2015. Last season, he was involved in a incident and finished 32nd. On Saturday, he looked pretty good overall. I liked him and probably like more than most do.
5. Joey Logano - The Penske cars were very fast on Saturday. Keselowski may had the best car in final practice. A lot of speed in his car, but I don't think Logano is too far off though. His numbers at Watkins Glen are great over the past couple seasons, so it is no shock that he is showing some speed. I think this is his last shot to make the playoffs. Here and Bristol, and honestly I like his chances here more than there. I feel like, if he doesn't win on Sunday, he will miss the playoffs this season. Not something that I saw coming honestly. Since he joined Penske in 2013, Logano haven't finished worse than 7th. In his past two starts, he has finishes of 1st and 2nd. This guy is stud here in the 22 car. He may not have the car to beat, but I think he is definitely within striking distance. A couple guys screw their days up and he could steal a win. It's probably unlikely, but in genral he is a good bet for Sunday's race.
6. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin haven't gotten a lot of love this week in general. And I think a lot of that has to do with him having Regan Smith on babywatch. That screams reg flags as a fantasy pick. I totally get that, but honestly I don't think he will leave Watkins Glen before the race. I truly believe, he will race on Sunday. His girlfriend isn't due to the 11th. And unless, something changes within the next 24 hours, I don't think he is leaving. Of course, things could change in a instant. But name the last time a driver on babywatch actually had to be subbed for? I cannot recall. The chances of it happening is low, but again they want someone on standby just in case. The 11 car was fast on Saturday and Hamlin has been the most consistent finisher on this type of track since Sonoma last season. He's finished 2nd, 1st and 3rd in his last three road courses.
7. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer is a stud on this type of track. He is a road course ace and usually runs pretty well here at Watkins Glen. I think Bowyer truly broke on the road course scene in 2012. He had some really good runs prior to that in his career, but 2012 at Sonoma was when he truly had his breakout race. Since then, he has been one of the best drivers at both tracks. I think his numbers are a little better at Sonoma, but his numbers at The Glen are pretty good, too. In his last 5 starts, he has 3 finishes of 6th or better. If we exclude last season (underfunded ride), he have 3 top 6 finishes in his last four starts. Either way, his numbers are pretty solid overall. I wouldn't say that they are great, considering he does not have a top 5. But that will change very soon, I am sure.
8. AJ Dinger - A lot of people are high on AJ Dinger and I get that. I respect the type of driver he is on this kind of track. He is a former winner here and is considered one of the best drivers in the series here. He has a great record here, but it doesn't change that the 47 team cannot seem to stay out of trouble/bad luck on the road courses. It been the common theme for them. Run very well for the first half of the race, before getting a bad finish. Last season, he did finish well, but it is his only top 10 finish since his win in 2015. On top of that, I wasn't exactly blown away by Dinger. I am sure he will be fine in the race, but I don't think he has a car that will dominate. If I did, I would have higher expectations for him. I say top 10 is where you should expect him to finish, maybe a little better, if there are bunch of cautions at the end.
9. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson has a habit of qualifying well on the road courses, before finishing further back in the running order. Now, I know a lot of those finishes has to do with bad luck. Sonoma, 2014 (rookie season), he had no power steering. Speeding penalty in 2015 at Watkins Glen, finished 12th. Speeding penalty at Sonoma in 2016. Wreck at Watkins Glen on the final lap. Damage to his racecar earlier this season at Sonoma, also altered his finish. You get the picture, right? His career best finish at either road course is 12th. Last season, he was running very well. In fact, he was running 4th and then Dinger got aggressive and wrecked him. That was brutal, because I had both of them on couple of my lineups. Just imagine one of your fantasy picks wrecking another of your picks? Completely brutal. I like Larson this weekend, but I don't love him. It seems like the 42 is lacking the speed in practice the past couple weeks. But he will be fine in the race, I think though.
10. Kurt Busch - There's a couple drivers that I could had put in this spot, but I am going with Kurt Busch though. He looked pretty good in practice and is someone who seems to always run well on the road courses. Busch inconsistency this season does worry me, but I will take the good with the bad. His numbers at Watkins Glen are pretty consistent in his last four starts. In his past four races here, he's finished 11th or better in every race. Prior to finishing 11th here last season, he had 3 straight finishes of 9th or better. In his past 10 races at this track, he has 8 Top 11 finishes. It is hard to hate what Kurt does bring to the table with his record here. If he does qualify well, I think I am willing to take a shot with him in the race.
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
