2018 Fantasy Nascar Picks (Daytona)

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It is the weekend of the Daytona 500, which means it is time to start to getting my picks ready and posted. On most weeks, I (or Garry) will have the initial picks for the week posted sometime between Monday and Thursday. Then after practice and qualifying, we will update the picks. If you visited this website before, then you probably are familiar with how things are ran with our Fantasy Nascar picks. It is a pretty simply process. However, we are forced to changed how our articles are designed in 2018. In years past, our primary picks were designed and built around Yahoo Fantasy Racing. As many of you know, the ever popular fantasy nascar game was discontinued after the 2017 season. However, a site called Fantasy Nascar Cheat Sheet has developed a similar Fantasy Nascar game. With basically the same idea/game setup. So starting in 2018, we will be making picks for that game. Along with Dark Horses, race winner, etc.

Alright that is what new, I think everyone is now up to date in what exactly going on. Let's get party started!

Fantasy Nascar Cheat Sheet -

A:

Starter: Denny Hamlin (9)

Bench: Brad Keselowski (9)

Reasons - There a couple drivers that I really love for the Daytona 500, but for me it come down to three drivers in this grouping of drivers. And Denny Hamlin is the one guy I am targeting for sure. His record at Daytona in recent seasons is impressive. He has a knack for finshing well at this track. He didn't quite back up his 2016 season at Daytona, but regardless he seems to have a really strong racecar for the 500. I don't see myself using Denny 8 other times this season, so I will take my chances with him. The backup option was between teammates Keselowki and Logano. I am going with Keselowski, even though Logano's numbers at the 500 are really good. But it doesn't matter for the 500, as you can change picks up until just before the green flag!

B:

Starters: Austin Dillon (9), Clint Bowyer (9)

Bench: Ricky Stenhouse Jr (9), Kurt Busch (9)

Reasons - Every year I like going with certain drivers at plate tracks as I always say if it isn't broke, then don't fix it. So I am going with (mostly) the same group of drivers that I always have at Daytona. If it doesn't work out, then oh well. Austin Dillon is a stud at Daytona. Last season was bad all-around for the No.3 car. As his performance was down across the board, minus the win column. I think he will bounce back in 2018 and that will start with a strong finish in the Daytona 500. Who should I pair him with? I gotta be someone that I don't think I will get 9 start with quite. And who better to go with, then the driver who has posted the most top 10 finishes in the last 5 years at Daytona? Yeah, I am talking about Clint Bowyer. He has posted 6 top 10 finishes in his last 10 races at Daytona. He is a damn stud and not enough people will give him credit for it. He is a plate racing ace, in my opinion. My backup options are Stenhouse Jr and Busch. And I don't have any good reasons for that other than their past success on the plate tracks. I also love the Fords this weekend at Daytona. They are strong as heck for sure. If you are looking for all Ford lineup, then those two are pretty good candidates. And personally i might swap one of them before the Green flag, too.

C:

Starter: Michael McDowell (9)

Bench: Alex Bowman (9)

Reasons - I know a lot of people will either start Alex Bowman, William Bryon or Darrell Wallace Jr. And that is perfectly fine and I respect anyone who does for that. But personally I have found that to be a rookie mistake in this game. I have played long enough where I know not to waste my valuable limited picks at a place like Daytona. Instead, I am going with Michael McDowell as my C-list pick. He has found a lot of success over the past couple seasons here and he could be due for another strong finish on Sunday as well. I know some of you are also going with Danica Patrick in her last Cup race. Personally, I rather not have anything to do with her. But hey that is just me though. More power to you, if you want to start Danica Patrick. But I am good!

Dark Horse - Clint Bowyer

Reasons - Clint Bowyer is excellent dark horse pick to go with this weekend. He has success, experience and the speed to get it done. Obviously, he will need some luck on his side as well. After the past couple seasons, I think he is due for some good karma for a change. So why not Clint? Find a legit reason why he cannot, I dare you to

Winner - Denny Hamlin

Reasons - There are many drivers that you go with as your race winner, but I am leaning toward the Driver of the No.11 car. I may be a bit biased since I am going with him one of my picks up above. But it is hard to ignore how much success he has had on the plate tracks over the past couple seasons. Sure, he doesn't always get the finishes but he always run very well. I don't think it will be any difference on Sunday. And I believe he will grab his 2nd Daytona 500 win, too. 

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @MattAleza

2018 Fantasy Nascar Final Rankings (Daytona)

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Final Rankings -

1. Denny Hamlin
2. Kyle Busch
3. Brad Keselowski
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Chase Elliott
6. Joey Logano
7. Clint Bowyer
8. Austin Dillon
9. Ryan Blaney
10. Martin Truex Jr
11. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
12. Jamie Mac
13. Jimmie Johnson
14. Kyle Larson
15. Kurt Busch
16. Alex Bowman
17. Aric Almirola
18. Erik Jones
19. Paul Menard
20. William Bryon
21. Ryan Newman
22. Daniel Suarez
23. AJ Dinger
24. Ty Dillon
25. Trevor Bayne
26. Darrell Wallace Jr
27. Danica Patrick
28. Chris Buescher
29. Michael McDowell
30. David Ragan

Twitter - @MattAleza

2018 Fantasy Nascar Early Rankings (Daytona)

Welcome to TimersSports

Early Rankings -

1. Brad Keselowsk
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Kyle Busch
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Chase Elliott
6. Joey Logano
7. Clint Bowyer
8. Austin Dillon
9. Ryan Blaney
10. Martin Truex Jr
11. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
12. Jimmie Johnson 
13. Jamie Mac
14. Kyle Larson
15. Kurt Busch
16. Alex Bowman
17. Aric Almirola
18. Erik Jones
19. Paul Menard
20. Ryan Newman
21. William Bryon
22. Daniel Suarez
23. AJ Dinger
24. Ty Dillon
25. Trevor Bayne
26. Darrell Wallace Jr
27. Danica Patrick
28. Chris Buescher
29. Michael McDowell
30. David Ragan

Twitter - @MattAleza  

 

2018 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kyle Larson

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Kyle Larson is coming off his best season ever in his young cup career. He will enter year no.5 as a cup driver and one many are thinking championship. The 25 year old driver from Cali had a very impressive season in 2017. He was the 3rd-best driver in the series, before that terrible stench of bad luck at end of the season. He went to victory lane 4 times, before getting eliminated early on in the Nascar playoffs. And most of his bad finishes in 2017 weren't his fault. When he finished races in 2017, he was near a top 3 driver every time.

The intermediate tracks will obviously be a strong area for him in 2018, as it has been in recent seasons. But in 2017, I thought he took it to entire new level. His best three intermediate tracks are Michigan, Dover and Homestead. You can probably throw in a couple other tracks on the list as well.

At Michigan, he has been nearly unstoppable in recent seasons. He could had a shot at winning in his very first start at Michigan. He was on the same pit strategy as race winner's Jimmie Johnson in June 2014. But he got a penalty late that costed him the eventual track position. In June 2015, he was competitive again. He was top 10 good for the event and had realistic shot at winning that rain-shortened race. He was leading the race, after a caution. And rain was very close to the track. He pitted for fuel late in the race. About 2 laps after he pitted, the yellow flag was display for rain. That ended the race. Fast forward to June 2016, he had a top 3 car and finished 3rd to Logano and Elliott. That was the last time that he didn't win a race at Michigan. Since that race, he has won three straight races at Michigan now.

Dover is one of Larson's best tracks and it doesn't take long to figure that out, either. He's very good at Dover, I would say that it is considered one of his top 5 tracks. In 8 career starts, he has posted 7 Top 11 finishes. In the playoff race in 2016, he had some very bad luck and finished 25th. Otherwise, he has been a top 10 machine outside of his first career start. In 5 of his last 7 starts here, he has finished 6th or better. In 2017, he finished 5th and 2nd. He looked great in both races. He had the car to beat for much of the spring race and led 242 laps. In the fall's race, he wasn't quite as good but still lead over 100 laps on his way to 5th place finish. In his last 4 races at Dover, he has finished 3 of those 4 races in the top 5.

Homestead is not only a great track for Larson, but I would have to say that it one of his favorites. He loves this kind of track and the results has been impressive. The last few years, he has been on a different level on the long runs at Homestead. He is the bar at Homestead, despite not collecting any wins yet. Three seasons ago, he should had won. He started mid-pack but had a great car on the long run. He was leading when a late caution came out. Two seasons ago, he dominated. He was the class of the field all day long. Problem? He wasn't nearly as good on the short runs. On the long runs, he would clock 5-seconds on the field. He got beat by Johnson on a late restart. In season's race, I thought he had the car to beat at end of the race. His lap times were better than the 78 and 18 on the final run, until he caught them. Then his lap times started to really go down. We may never know, but I think a lot of that had to do with not getting involved in the championship fight. I think Larson backed off out of respect for Busch and Truex Jr. He didn't want to be ''that guy'' who cost something a championship. Could I be wrong? Sure, but that what logic says.

Shorter flats are good for Larson and he may be a bit underrated at them. Sure, he will be a little inconsistent, but he is still trying to find himself as a driver. Richmond is a very good track for him overall. In 8 career starts, he does not have a finish worse than 16th. And that finish came in his very first start back in 2014. In 5 of his last 7 races here, he has finished 12th or better. In the fall races, he has been very good overall. He has finished 12th or better in every start. Including scoring his first non-intermediate track win in the last race held here.

At New Hampshire, he has had his moments for sure. From July 2015 to July 2016 (3 races), he had three straight finishes of 31st, 17th and 17th. Since? He has 3 finishes of 10th, 2nd and 2nd. In his first season, he posted finishes of 2nd and 3rd during his first two career starts at New Hampshire. So to say the least, Kyle has been up, down and now seem to heading back in the right direction. It has been a roll coaster ride for Kyle Larson at New Hampshire. Hopefully, things will stay consistent from the 2017 season for him at this place. At Phoenix (ISM), he has been good but not over the top yet. In 8 career starts, he has posted 7 Top 20 finishes. While finishing 40th back at Phoenix in the most recent race. Larson probably had one of the strongest cars in the early stages of the race. If he didn't blow his engine, I think he would had finished very high in the running order. In November 2016, he finished 3rd. And he finished 2nd in spring 2017. A pair of very solid performances. I am not willing to say that he is going to victory lane in 2018 here, but I wouldn't be surprised at all, either.

The larger flats are where Larson will be very difficult to outperform on a regular basis. He is extremely consistent so far in his career at both Pocono and Indy. Which is why it was so shocking that Larson had finishes of 7th, 33rd and 28th in 2017 on the larger flats tracks. His lone good finish was 7th in the first Pocono race. In 12 career starts on both Pocono and Indy (combined), he had NO FINISHES worse than 12th place in his first 10 starts. His most recent two starts has ended in 28th and 33rd. Isn't that just amazing? I mean, it isn't amazing he finished poorly. But that's impressive. What it also tells me? It was probably a fluke. Trends aren't just numbers. They tell a story. And the story it is telling us is that Larson is very very good on the large flat tracks. Two bad finishes (with bad luck - by the way) doesn't change that. At least not until those bad finishes start to develop a negative pattern.

Bristol and Martinsville are two different tracks for him. One place is his favorite racetrack and the other he haven't found much success on. At Martinsville, he has finished 5 of his 8 career races in 19th or worse. He had his best race in 2016 spring race. He finished 3rd, after running in the top 10 for most of the day. In his next couple races, he would go on to boarder-top 10 caliber driver. He had finishes of 17th and 14th in those races though. Let's just say that he needs to do some work at Martinsville. Then there is Bristol! Larson in the past has said this is his favorite racetrack on the schedule. In 2017, he was very strong at Bristol. He had finishes of 6th and 9th. In the spring race, he was very good. He had the best car for the entire. He led nearly half of the laps for the race, before ending up in 6th place. In the summer race, he just wasn't quite as good. Before the 2017 season, he had three straight races of 24th of worse. He was strong in each of those races or at least had great potential. It is hard to bet against a guy like Kyle Larson at Bristol. He just loves this place and seems to run well every time

Plate tracks has been good and bad for him in recent seasons. He really struggled at Daytona in his first couple season, but seem to be getting better over the last year and a half. But I don't buy what he is selling though. Deep down, I still think that he hates these tracks. Especially Daytona, since he had 5 finishes of 29th or worse in 8 career starts. He had three straight finishes of 12th, 6th and 7th from February 2016 to February 2017. At Talladega, he has proven to be more consistent in his finishes overall. In 5 of his 8 career starts, he has finished 17th or better. In 4 of those races, he has finished in the top 13. In his last three races here, he has posted finishes of 13th, 12th and 6th. Like I said, he is getting better on the plate tracks. But you know, I don't really buy into it. He need to have another solid year on the plates to convince me.

Road courses are underrated for Kyle Larson and he is pretty good at them. This is impressive for a driver who has pretty limited experience on them in the cup series. He blew me away in 2014, when he was as good as he was at the road courses. And as time goes on, he is only getting better and better. He is still searching for that key breakout race though. At Sonoma, he has a best career finish of 12th. He also has had a lot of bad luck that has derailed some very solid performances. Don't discount him by any means. He is capable of being a top 10 driver with some serious upside. At Watkins Glen, he had a strong debut where he finished 4th. He charged through the field on that final run and finished 4th. He came from mid-pack, too which was very impressive. Since? He has finishes of 12th, 23rd and 29th. He had a lot of bad luck in those three races. In 2016, he finished 29th. He was very strong. He ran top 5 or top 10 for most of the event. He was running 4th on the final lap, before getting dumped by Dinger on the final lap. In last season's race, he started off very well. But then he just sucked after that. There's nothing I can say other than he was just terrible. He wasn't competitive at all and got lapped under green.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2018 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kyle Busch

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Kyle Busch has been so impressive since coming back from that brutal injury in 2015, he has been a different driver on and off the track. He is winning a lot, his attitude has changed (in my opinion) and he is contending for championship each season. He has been in the thick of things at Homestead since Nascar employed this new format. In years past, he would try to hard and take himself out of contention early in the playoffs. Now, he is not going for the home run every time. He is more worried about getting the finish for that race, before focusing on the next one. That alone will come with time with any driver out there. Since joining JGR in 2008, he has won at least 3 times in 8 of those 10 seasons. In 2018, I have very high expectations for him. If he isn't contending for wins on a regular basis and at Homestead at November, then he simply isn't living up to his potential!

Obviously, the intermediate tracks will be a major strength for him in 2018. It is no secret that JGR as whole has been really strong on the intermediate tracks. This is where they have the biggest advantage over the field, in my opinion. Over the past couple seasons, this organization has been dominant and Kyle Busch is one of the drivers leading the charge! The hard part is just picking a couple of tracks to breakdown, since he's so damn good everywhere. However, if I had to pick, it would be at Texas, Cali and Kentucky. Those are my top 3 tracks among the intermediate tracks. Obviously there are plenty of other tracks that you could also consider.

Kentucky is not only one of his best intermediate tracks, but it is also one of his very best tracks on the schedule. It is hard to sit here and say there's a better driver out there at this place. Maybe Brad Keselowski? And I have a hard time convincing myself that Brad is better than Kyle at Kentucky speedway. He is that damn good, his record here is just simply amazing! In 7 career starts, he has never finished worse than 12th place. And that came in 2016, where he finished 12th. In his other 6 starts, he has 6 top 10 finishes. In 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2017 he led at least 112 laps in each race. So in 4 of 7 races, Rowdy has led pretty much half of the race. In 4 of his last 5 races at Kentucky, he has finished in the top 5.

Cali is a great track, despite his struggles at it sister track (Michigan), Rowdy has been impressive throughout his career. Since joining JGR in 2008, he had made 12 starts. In 8 of those races, he has finished in the top 8. During that span, Rowdy has compiled 6 Top 3 finishes. From March 2011 to March 2014, he finished in the top 3 in every single race. Including two wins coming in 2013 and 2014. He finished 8th in last season's race, even though he was probably top 5 good for the event. He led 7 laps on his way to that 8th-place finish.

Then there is Texas Motor Speedway! Despite of pair of finishes outside of the top 10 in 2017, it has been a very strong racetrack for him in recent seasons. From November 2012 to November 2015 (8 races), he had 7 top 5 finishes. Since the 2013 season, he has posted 2 wins at Texas. I will always remember that 2013 race. One of my all-time favorite races at this track. It was a really fun race. Truex Jr dominant on the long runs, Busch was the guy to beat on the short runs. With a guy named Jeff Gordon constantly running 3rd for most of the night behind those two. In the end, there was about a 15 or 20 lap-dash to the finish. Busch was the man that came out on top.

The shorter flats will be once again a strong type of track for Kyle Busch in 2018. And his best track is Richmond. He loves this place and it loves him right back, too. During his career, he has compiled 7.4 career average finish. In 19 career races with the #18 team, he has posted 11 Top 5 finishes. Including 9 Top 3 finishes during that 19-races span. In his last 5 races at Richmond, he has compiled 4 finishes in the top 9. He also has 2 finishes in the top 2 during that 5-race span. In his last 7 races, Rowdy has produced 3 Top 3 finishes. Including 2nd place finishes in September 2015 and April 2016. The numbers just don't do it justification how freaking good this man is here! Ridiculous!

Phoenix is also pretty good for Rowdy and he doesn't get enough credit for how well he runs here on a yearly basis. In his last 5 races at Phoenix, he has finished 7th or better in every race. Prior to finishing 7th in last November's race, he had 4 straight top 4 finishes from November 2015 to March 2017. He has been pretty good here throughout his career, but not great. In his last 12 races, he has finished in the top 5 in half of his races. Problem is? He haven't scored a race win since the 2005 season at Phoenix. That eventually gonna change and there's a obvious reason for the lack of wins. Look how dominant Jimmie Johnson was before the repave. And look how dominant Kevin Harvick has been since the repave. It is very hard to overcome those things, since those drivers simply been untouchable for period of times. Good news? Harvick seems to be losing a little touch with that dominance of late. It might be time for a new driver to step up and take control. It might be Rowdy time in the desert!?

New Hampshire, like the other two tracks, Rowdy has been very strong on. I would go far to say that New Hampshire is in Rowdy's top 5 tracks. It is not crazy when you look at his track record of late here. In his last 10 races at New Hampshire, he has compiled 6 Top 3 finishes. From July 2013 to July 2014, he had 3 straight 2nd place finishes. The following July (in 2015), he went to victory lane. In September 2016, he followed it up with 3rd place. Then the following September race (in 2017), he took his #18 car back to victory lane. His success lately at New Hampshire is so impressive and I would be shocked if it suddenly stopped. Especially since his biggest competition has been his teammate Matt Kenseth. He is no longer in the picture. Guess who is sitting really pretty?

Martinsville is where I say that Kyle get very little respect at and it should be considered a crime. He is easily a top 3 driver at this place any time we come here! He is top 5 machine at the paperclip and his numbers over the past couple seasons are really impressive. In his last 5 races at this place, he has 5 straight top 5 finishes. Over his last 10 races a this track, he has compiled 7 Top 5 finishes. Not only that, but he also has compiled 3 Top 2 finishes in his last 4 races at this track. Overall, he haven't finished worse than 15th since way back in the 2012 season. We are entering the 2018 season now.

Bristol always been a personal favorite track for Kyle Busch, but he has had a lot of bad luck at this track since the repave. But before the repave, he was a monster a this place. There was a stench, where you could have renamed it Kyle Busch Motor Speedway. He was that automated that you didn't even have to run the race. He was just money here. From 2008 to 2011, he won 4 times in a 6-race span in utter dominance fashion. His most impressive race in that span was that 2008 race in the summer time. He led 415 of 500 laps on his way to 2nd place finish. He followed it with 4 wins in his next 5 races. After that, we only saw him score 2 top 5 finishes since that span of races. In March 2013 (2nd) and winning the past August' s race. I think from that 2nd place finish in 2013 and his win in 2017, there a lot of bad luck involved. He was competitive in the top 5 at some point in every single one of those races.

Indy has been very good in recent years to Rowdy, other than in 2017. When he had the dominant racecar all long. Until him and Truex Jr wrecked while running 1-2. Of course that happened, that entire race turned into a complete shitshow. Because that was the only logic thing to happen. Regardless, he has been great at Indy over the past 4 or 5 seasons. It took him awhile to start contending for wins at this place, but he has been locked in lately. Since the 2012 season (6 races), Rowdy has posted 4 Top 2 finishes. He scored wins in 2015 and 2016. Prior to that, he had 2nd place finishes in 2015 and 2013. In 7 of his last 8 races overall at Indy, he has finished in the top 10. Of course, his only race outside of the top 10 was his most recent one. And I have already explained what happened there. I would 100% expect a bounce back year at Indy in 2018!

In last August's race at Pocono, Rowdy checked off another track on his win list. He went to victory lane for the first time in his career. Outside of that win, Rowdy haven't found that much success in terms of final finishing position. Just 10 other top 10 finishes in his 25 other races. In 5 of his last 12 races at Pocono, he has finished 21st or worse. Since 2012, he has no top 5 finishes outside of his lone win. With all of that said, he has performed well in recent races at Pocono. He led 100 laps in the June (in 2017), before eventually finishing 9th. He had the car to beat, before the cars behind him switched up the pit strategy on the final restart. Fresh tires lined up behind was a recipe for diaster for Rowdy. Soon as Harvick and Blaney got around him, he slid backwards big time in those final few laps. Not the first time a win has slipped away here, either. In August 2015, he had a really good shot at the win. He was leading with a lap or two left in the race, before he ran out of fuel. A lot of drivers ran out of fuel in that race, so it wasn't much of a big deal. He finished 21st in that event.

Plate tracks are a weak spot for Rowdy, but it is not a bad type of track though. He will at times in the past, he has gone on impressive stenches at both Daytona and Talladega. He is a former winner at both tracks, too. At Talladega, he has been up and down but he has some really good trends going at the spring race. Since the 2012 season, he has been really good in the spring (May) races. In his last 5 spring races at Talladega, he has posted 4 finishes of 12th or better. Including finishes of 3rd (2017), 2nd (2016), 12th (2014), 37th (2013) and 2nd (2012). In 3 of his last 5 races overall, he has compiled 3 finishes of 11th or better. At Daytona, his good finishes has been very limited since that 3-race top 5 streak from July 2007 to July 2008. Since start of 2009 season (17 races), he has only posted 5 top 12 finishes and only 7 Top 15 finishes overall during that span. With 6 of his last 10 races ending in 19th or worse.

Road courses has been very interesting for him as well. He has been awesome at one and questionable at the other. At Watkins Glen, he has some amazing career stats. In 11 of his last 12 races, he has finished in the top 10. In 5 of his last 10 races, he has finished in the top 5. Outside of his 40th place finish in 2015, he has literally zero races where he wasn't a contender for the win. He has been a contender every single year at Watkins Glen. I don't see any reason why that would suddenly change. At Sonoma? Things haven't been as smooth for him. He has three straight top 7 finishes at this track currently. Including an win in 2015. Prior to that win in 2015, he had just one top 15 finish between 2009 and 2014. Back in 2008, he scored another win at Sonoma. To say the least, he has been all over the map at Sonoma. Good news? It looks like he is finally starting to see the light at tend of the tunnel at the tricky road course.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2018 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Jimmie Johnson

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Jimmie Johnson is coming off a career-worst season in well over a decade. And in 2018, I think we are gonna find out weather or not Jimmie is headed towards the dreaded decline. Sure, he was in the championship conversation last season during the playoffs, but he struggled most of the season outside of his wins. He scored a career-low 4 top 5 finishes and 13 top 10 finishes. Just being top 10 good in 90% of the races isn't good enough to win championships in this series. Over the past two seasons, he has posted career-lows in his numbers. Statistically, 2016 and 2017 both ranked as his worst two seasons ever as a full-time driver. They ranked as his worst two seasons on record in top 5 finishes (third-worst actually), top 10 finishes and average finish. 2016 ended in a championship, but even Johnson admitted that a test session at Indy really helped turn him and his teammates' season around. So in 2018, we are gonna find out a lot more about the 48 team. He really is one of the more interesting storylines heading into the season. At least from the things I am looking forward to finding out.

Johnson has been excellent throughout his career on the intermediate tracks. There is surprise that he is the current all-time leader in wins on this type of track. Obviously his years of success can be contribute to his ability to win on these tracks. Of course his level of equipment has a lot to do with that as well. His top 3 intermediate tracks are Dover, Texas and Atlanta. You can add several other tracks to that list though. Such as Chicago, Charlotte and Cali off top of my head. Dover is one of his best tracks on the schedule and it is not very close. I would easily rank it as a top 3 track for him. The things he has accomplished here in his career is just incredible! Since the 2009 season (18 races ago), he has posted 8 wins (yeah that half of the races) with  12 Top 5 finishes and 14 top 10 finishes. In 6 of his last 9 race at Dover, he has finished in the top 4. During those 9 races, he has posted 4 wins. With 3 of those wins coming in the spring race at Dover.

At Texas, he has been very good for very many years. Since the 2012 season, he has been nearly unstoppable. In his last 11 races here, he has won a staggering 6 times. Including 5 top 4 finishes in his last 7 races at Texas. In those 7 races, he has posted 4 wins. All those wins has came since the 2014 season. In the last 6 races that he has led at least 1 laps, the has gone onto victory lane. Just crazy to think about, isn't it? At Atlanta , he has been great at for most of his career. In recent seasons, he haven't shown much to disprove that, either. He finished 19th in last season's but prior to that he won races in the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Since the 2010 season, he has finished in the top 5 in 5 of 8 races. Prior to finishing 19th in 2017, he had straight top 4 finishes from 2014 to 2016 seasons.

At the shorter flats, he haven't been too bad on in recent seasons overall. At Richmond, he has been the best among the three tracks. Over his last 7 races at Richmond, he has compiled 7 straight top 11 finishes. Even though 5 of 7 races has ended between 8th-11th. Still, he is being very consistent and getting good finishes. It is only matter of time before those finishes start to creep closer to the front. Consistently is key to long-term success at any track.

At New Hampshire, I guess he haven't terrible. But there was a time where he could be counted on to contend for wins though. From July 2007 to September 2013 (14 races), he posted 12 top 9 finishes. Including 9 Top 6 finishes during that 14-races span. Since? In his last 8 races, he has finished 4 of 8 races outside of the top 10. He does have finishes of 5th, 6th, 8th and 10th. With 3 of those 4 finishes coming in the September races. In fact, you have to go back to 2011 season to find a race where he finished worse than 14th. Not too bad!

At Phoenix (ISM), he has really fallen off in recent seasons. He isn't the driver that he once was here. But as we put more laps on this current surface, I think this track will come back to it once was. Sadly for Johnson, I don't think he will be racing where that actually happens. In 5 of his last 7 races, he has finished 11th or worse. With two additional finishes of 5th and 9th. If you want to look at it another way, he has finished 11th or better in 4 of his last 6 races. Which is pretty good actually, but obviously not what he was before the 2014 season. From 2007 to 2013, he was literally posting almost nothing but top 5 finishes. During that span, he failed to post top 5 finishes just three times. With only one of those three finishes outside of the top 14. He was crazy good before the repave was done.

Then there is Martinsville and Bristol. One track, we know exactly how good he is. Jimmie Johnson at Martinsville is just one of those things where he expect him to be great and contend for wins. Problem is? He has lost his touch in recent season. He has finished 12th or worse in 5 of his last 7 races at Martinsville. He won here back in October 2016. That was his first and last win since April 2013 at Martinsville. We know for years how he was a top 5 machine at this place. Now it seems like other drivers has risen to the top at this track.

At Bristol, he really only has one poor finish over the past 3 or 4 seasons. And that came in August 2016, where he finished 23rd. Otherwise, he has finished last 6 of 7 races in 11th or better. Pretty impressive at a track that has been known for a lot of wrecks and DNFs for most drivers out there. So to have zero incidents or DNF-like finishes, it is very impressive. I am kinda surprise about that, I would had thought that Johnson would end up with a few of those finishes. He kinda a target for that kind of stuff sometimes. In last spring's race, he won his second career race at Bristol. In 13 of his last 18 races, Johnson has posted finishes in the top 11.

The larger flats will be interesting for Jimmie Johnson in 2018. He was once the best driver in the series on the larger flats. But now? He is coming off a dreadful season at both Indy and Pocono. He finish on either track was 27th place. Not good in the three races. He has finishes of 27th, 35th and 36th. At Pocono, he has really gone down hill for some reason. He was great here at one point in his career. I remember back 5 years ago where I wouldn't dare bet against him. Now, you are afraid to pick him. In 5 of his last 7 races at Pocono, he has finished 16th or worse. With 4 finishes ending in 35th or worse. Do I really need to say anymore about it? At Indy, he is in a similar boat. He was great earlier in the career, but he has started to taper off in recent seasons. In his last four seasons, he has posted 3 finishes of 14th or worse. From 2006 to 2013 (8 races), he posted 5 Top 2 finishes with 4 races resulting in wins. He just haven't been the same since here.

At plate tracks, Johnson is kinda overrated. He won twice at Daytona in 2013 and followed it up a nice of stench of races. However, now he has gone back into slump again over the past two seasons. In his last four races at Daytona, he has no finishes better than 12th. And 3 of 4 races has ended in 16th or worse. At Talladega, he has been worse. In 6 of his last 8 races, he has finished 18th or worse. With 5 of those 6 finishes ending in 22nd or worse. He has just three top 5 finishes since start of the 2008 season at Talladega. One of those three where that epic 2011 finish, where he won. He finished 2nd in 2015 spring race, his most recent top 5 finish.

The road courses aren't terrible for Johnson by any means. I have always said that he is underrated on them. I still believe that, despite his finishes being down on them in recent. I still think he is a very capable road course racer. At Watkins Glen, he haven't had much luck at all lately. In 3 of his last 4 races, he has finished 28th or worse. Trust me, he isn't that bad. He will eventually get back onto the right track again. At Sonoma, he has been very competitively lately. He just haven't gotten the finishes though. Since the 2009 season, he haven't finished worse than 13th. He has finished 13th in 2017 and 2016. But in 2 of the last three races, he has led double digit laps (12 laps in 2017 and 45 in 2015). He won back in 2010 for his first and only road course win. I still believe that Johnson can make a very fine fantasy option at the road courses. I wouldn't say that I would feel comfortable, but I wouldn't hate it, either.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18

2018 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Martin Truex Jr

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Martin Truex Jr won the championship at Homestead to end the 2017 season. Pretty damn good way to end a career-year for a driver coming off back-to-back career years. Can he have another career-year in 2018? It is a no from I would have to say. When you have the season that Truex Jr did, it is almost impossible to back up or surpass it the following season. That just how it goes in this sport. There's a point, where you have to accept there will be some sort of regress in the numbers. Every great driver will experience that at some point in their careers. Their previous season was so good that it is unavoidable. I think that what we can expect from Martin Truex Jr in 2018! With that said, I still expect him to be the best driver in the series, score the most top 5, wins and probably contend for the championship again.

Intermediate tracks are obviously the biggest strength for Truex Jr and 78 team entering the 2018 season. He has been so stupid fast on these intermediate tracks over the past couple seasons, you can almost pick every time you go to one and he will win. Obviously, he should be the odds-on favorite almost every time we go to one of the intermediate tracks. Especially the 1.5 mile tracks. He was top 2 guy in every race on this type of track in 2017. His top three intermediate tracks are Chicago, Darlington and Dover. Then there's places like Charlotte (missed the top 3 - because we are no long going to the 1.5 mile track), Texas and Homestead that just missed the cut, but could easily be put in that top 3. But Truex Jr just so damn good everywhere. It is hard to just pick 2 or 3 tracks and be happy about it.

At Dover, he's really good. He scored his first career win back in 2007 with DEI. After that it took awhile for him to get back on track. But since the 2014 season, he has been on it at Dover. In his last 8 races at Dover, Truex Jr has posted 8 straight top 11 finishes. His worst finish is 11th and that was in October 2015. In his 6 of his other 7 races, he has finished 7th or better. In his last three races at Dover, he has finishes of 1st, 3rd and 4th. 3 straight top 4 finishes is pretty damn good to ride into 2018 with. He will have a great chance at making it 4 and 5 straight in 2018, in my opinion.

At Darlington, he has always been excellent. At Darlington, he owns his career-best average finish of 11.3 in 12 races. His only finish worse than 19th came in 2014, where he finished 27th. Since finishing 27th in 2014, he has knocked off three straight top 9 finishes. He won back in 2016 and followed it with another strong performance in 2017. He has led in each of the past two seasons, too. He isn't a standout here, when looking at his numbers lately. But he has been good here for some long, it is hard to dismiss his career-long success on a consistent basis. At Chicago, he has just been on it the past couple seasons. Prior to winning in the past two seasons at Chicago, he had no finishes better than 9th in his career. But over his last three seasons at Chicago, he has led at least 30 laps in each event. He finished 13th in 2015 event, but he led 39 laps on his way to that 13th place finish. In last season's race, he led 77 laps on his way to victory lane for the second straight season.

The shorter flats are underrated for Truex Jr and I don't know why. He has proven that he can be a force on tracks outside of the intermediate tracks. Yet, people still haven't figured that out. Don't be surprised when he really really good in 2018 at the venues of New Hampshire, Richmond and ISM (formerly known as Phoenix). At New Hampshire, he has been unbelievable at New Hampshire. He has led 100+ laps in each of his last four races at this track. Kyle Busch has been class of the field, but Truex Jr is likely his biggest challenger now. In July 2016, he had proabbly the 2nd or 3rd best car, but ended up finishing 16th, after leading 123 laps. In September 2016, he finished 7th after leading 141 laps. In 2017, he had finishes of 5th and 3rd. He led 141 laps and 112 laps in those two races. Do you see a trend at New Hampshire?

At Richmond, he has been good. Well at least in the summer races. In the past two summer (September) races, as he ha led over 190 laps in each race. In 3 of his last 4 races, he has finished in the top 10. He only has one top 5 finish during that span though. In 6 of his last 9 races at Richmond, he has finished in the top 10. He is lacking the wins and top 5 finishes for the most part, but you can see the potential. A driver like Truex Jr won't need a lot of that to be a dangerous fantasy option. Then there is ISM (Phoenix)! Of the three tracks, I would say that this is the weakest link for Truex Jr. He haven't led a singe lap since the 2012 season at ISM. In 24 career starts, he has only led twice at ISM. Over his last 7 races at ISM, he has compiled 6 finishes of 14th or better. In 2017, he had finishes of 3rd and 11th. In the fall's race, he finished 3rd. That by far his best performance at ISM since joining the 78 team.

At Bristol and Martinsville, his numbers are more mid-pack-like than you would like. That doesn't mean he haven't ran well though. At Bristol, he has had a tough time finishing on the lead lap. In 6 of his last 9 Bristol races, he has finished outside of the top 20. In those 9 races, he has only 3 finishes in the top 20. Including his finish of 8th. That came in spring of 2017. He led a career-best 116 laps on to a career-best performance at Bristol. Not his best career finishes though. He finished 3rd and 2nd during August 2011 and March 2012. At Martinsville, he has finished in the top 7 in 4 of his last 6 races. In 2 of his last 3 races at Martinsville, he has finished 2nd and 7th. In last fall's race, he finished 2nd. In 4 of his last 6 races, he has led at least 20 laps in each race. He's underrated here.

The larger flats has been very good for him of late and 2017 was another great year for him. At Pocono, he posted finishes in the top 6 in both races. And back in June 2015, he ended up going to victory lane. In August 2015, he was strong again. That was the epic fuel mileage race and he was a strong contender for that race. He was top 5 with a few laps to go, before eventually running out of fuel. In June 2016, he finished 19th. He was noncompetitive in that race and he had everything go wrong for him. From loose tires to speeding penalty to getting in an incident on pit road. It was just a forgettable race for him. In August 2016, he had a great car. He was using the same car he dominated at Charlotte (earlier in the season) and he was looking great. But then he got inovlved in a wreck, after a caution. He went a lap or so down but remained without striking distance. Then he smacked the wall again and pretty much ended his day.  At Indy, he had a result in 2017. Him and Kyle Busch dominant the event. They ran 1-2 all day long, until they wrecked together while batting for the lead. Before that, he has been very good overall. In his last 5 races at Indy, he has posted 4 top 11 finishes during those 5 races. You can expect him to be one of the strongest drivers in the series again.

Plate tracks aren't a bad place for him, but it should be consider a weak link for him though. At Daytona, he has posted 4 top 15 finishes in his last 7 races. His other three finishes has been 34th 29th and 38th. In 5 of his last 9 races, he has finished 29th or worse. Like most drivers, sometimes luck just doesn't seems to be on his side. He's a underrated plate racer, I will say that though. At Talladega, his numbers are pretty similar. He has 3 finishes of 13th or better. In his other four races, he has posted finishes of 23rd, 35th, 40th and 27th. Most notable at Talladega. He has finished outside of the top 20 in 3 straight races at Talladega.

He's very good on the road courses and he has been for quite awhile. Back in his MWR days, he was pretty good and has only gotten better with experience. At Watkins Glen, I would say that it is one of his best tracks. He has always been great. You can go back ot his DEI days to find success. That was a decade ago now. In 5 of his last 7 races at WGI, he has finished in the top 10. In 3 of his last 5 races at WGI, he has finished 7th or better. He even scored his first career win at WGI in the 2017 race. At Sonoma, he has been good. In 4 of his last 7 races, he has finished 15th or better. In his last 5 races, he has finished 15th or better in 3 of those races. Bad news? In 2 of his last 3 races has ended in an DNF. He finished 5th in 2016. His most recent top 5 finish before that? His first career road course win back in 2013.

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18