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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kevin Harvick - I don't think Harvick has a dominating car, like we had seen in the past. However, he's one of the best drivers in the series at this place. He's in the top 2 for sure! Does he has the best car this weekend? It's close, I would say. I say he has a top 3 car for sure. Last season, he was one of two drivers to compile an average finish better than 3.0 on shorter flats tracks. Kyle Busch was the other driver, for anyone who was wondering. There's nothing I can say that you don't already know. He has been near top of the speed charts in every practice and will most likely finish somewhere among top 2 or 3!
2. Kyle Busch - Rowdy should be one of the heavy favorites to win. He won here in last fall's race, the most important race to look back on, if you are looking at recent data. Over the last few seasons, there has been no driver better at this track than Kyle Busch! He was stupid good in 2018 on the shorter flats. He had the best average finish in the series and posted three wins. This weekend, he's looking really strong once again. That #18 car has a lot of speed in it and Kyle is easily one of the most consistent drivers in the series. I think he will lead plenty of laps and he may give the lead up easily, either!
3. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has been running very well out of the gate in 2019, where he has finishes of 12th, 1st and 2nd. It's rough to beat those kind of results. The Penske cars are looking pretty good once again this weekend. And it does not hurt that Keselowski has ran very well here at ISM in the past. I am little surprised that Brad haven't won here yet in the Cup series. He was 5th on the best-ten lap average chart in final practice on Saturday's afternoon. He has the car to go to victory lane and maybe nobody has more momentum than him, either. Yes, maybe even more than his Penske's teammate, Joey Logano!
4. Joey Logano - I really like Logano this weekend and I really liked what I seen from these Penske Fords this season and this weekend. They had been near top of the speed charts in whatever we look at. Joey has another great car this weekend and topped final practice's best ten-lap average. With about 6 minutes left, the guys on Fox said the top 5 for the best-20 lap averages. Joey was 4th on that list. He was behind Harvick, Kyle Busch and Blaney. For me, it is always hard for me to pick against a guy coming off a win. Between him and his teammate, it is hard to say who has more momentum overall. Both guys has finished in the top 2 twice this season already. We are just three races into the 2019 season!
5. Denny Hamlin - I always been a big fan of the JGR cars on the shorter flats and I think Hamlin will be very good in the race this weekend. He has had some solid speed in his car. He has been good in every practice session and qualified inside the top 5. He may drop a few spots behind this ranking, but I would not be shocked if he sneaked out of the state of Arizona with a top finish! He wasn't quite as good as his teammate of Kyle Busch, but I wasn't expecting him to, though. Something I really like about him lately at ISM? He has put together some really impressive performances, despite having two finishes outside of the top 10 in his last three races. Over his last three races at ISM, he has compiled an average driver rating of 109.5. Of course that 2017 race really shoots that average up. But still, he has been really solid. I like him a lot this weekend! He had the 5th-best 20 lap average with about 6 minutes left in final practice.
6. Chase Elliott - I don't know if Elliott will challenge for the win this weekend at ISM, but I think he will mix it up at latter part of the top 5/top-end of the top 10 for most of the race. He has had some good top 10 speed. Overall the HMS cars has shown good speed all weekend, but none of are exactly on the Fords/JGR's level, though. Elliott has been good here in the past, too. Which makes me believe he will back up his practice more than his teammates will. In 6 career races, he has finished in the top 10 in 66% of his career races! He has been awesome here the last few seasons. Including a pair of top 3 finishes in his last three here. He finished 23rd in last fall's race, after getting involved in a wreck. He was very strong in that race, before finding those issues.
7. Martin Truex Jr - I am not really super high on the #19 team this weekend. Truex Jr haven't been horrible, but he haven't exactly been that good, either, though. He's probably top 10 good for the race, but I think that will be it. Personally, it is just not him lacking speed this weekend, though. Over his last 10 races, he has finished outside of the top 10 in 7 of those 10 races. I don't know, I just don't have a good feeling about him here at ISM. Should it be shocking? Truex Jr is more commonly known as a 1.5 mile guy than on a shorter flat like ISM!
8. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has shown a lot of speed this weekend and I love the Penske cars. This has nothing to do with the speed in the #12 car. If we were basing it just off speed, I would have him somewhere between 3rd and 6th most likely. But it isn't just based on speed, though. Over the last two seasons here, he haven't finished better than 16th. Despite starting in the top 12 in all four of those races, too. As for this season, he haven't finished better than 22nd in three races. Those things could easily change, but it will drop him a couple spots in my rankings. Again, I really love the Penske cars this weekend.
9. Kyle Larson - Larson is starting in the back, so he will have his work cut out for him on Sunday's afternoon. I think he will have enough speed to make it to the front. The #42 car is good enough to challenge for a top 10 finish on his own. If he can get track position, I think he can get a top 5 finish, too. I wouldn't say that this is Larson's best type of track, though. I am not really concern about that, I am more worried about him on pit road. If Larson's team can go flawless on pit road, he's talent enough to be a lot better than this 9th place ranking!
10. Aric Almirola - There were several drivers up for consideration in my final spot in my rankings. It was between Aric Almirola, Erik Jones and Kurt Busch. I am giving Aric the edge among the three drivers. I gave him the edge, simply because he has ran really well here lately and shown good speed throughout the weekend. In final practice, he had the third-best 10 lap average and had the 5th-best fastest lap overall. He will start from 14th and he has quietly been having a very good season so far in 2019! He finished 8th at Atlanta and 7th at Vegas. Can he keep the trend going up? I wouldn't be shocked, if he did!
Just missed -
Erik Jones
Kurt Busch
Clint Bowyer
Jimmie Johnson
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
