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We are headed back to Pocono Raceway. This is the 3rd of a three race-stench of flat racetracks on the 2015 schedule. Before we get into today's preview, I would like to say wow what a job by Kyle Busch. No way did I think he would win three races in a row. However he did exactly that. So congrats to him and that Joe Gibbs Racing. Pocono is a large flat-racetrack of 2.5 mile long in length. The big problem is with this track is that every turn is different, so it basically impossible to get your car perfect here. Typically drivers who run up front here have the the most horsepower and the best setups in their cars. Since the NSCS was at Pocono just one month ago, it should be easily to figure out who will be fast and who will not be fast on Sunday.
1-Jamie Mac: JMac finished in the teen at Indy, but he now goes to a very good track in Pocono. Earlier this season he finished 7th here. I don't think he had a top 10 car for that race, but it very close. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 10.0 average finish, 13.0 average start, 13.8 average running position and 88.8 driver rating. He have finished 7th or 10th in his past 3 races at Pocono. Including back-to-back 7th place finishes at this venue. I think the flats in general is JMac strongest area. He have proven over the past two seasons he is a legit fantasy option on a weekly basis. He is probably a lock for another top 15 finish this weekend.
2-Brad Keselowski: I would be higher on Keselowski, but he have not proven he can finish up front this season. In 20 races, he have only finished inside the top 5 in 4 races this season and only once since Texas. When was that? Two weeks ago at New Hampshire. I think it unlikely for him to make it number 5 on Sunday though. Over the past 4 races, he have complied 12.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 9.8 average running position, 109 laps led and 104.3 driver rating. Brad K does have one win here, but that was back in 2011. Since then (7 races), he have finished 4 of those 7 races outside of the top 15. Including finishes of 17th (earlier this season) and 23rd here last August. I think both Penske cars have found more speed, but Brad just haven't been able to find the finishes though.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is coming off a disappoint day at Indy, but I do like him as a fantasy pick at Pocono. He should be a solid fantasy pick this weekend though. Earlier this season he finished 19th, but don't be fooled he had a top 15 car for that event. Not real sure what happened to him, but he ran about half of that race inside the top 15. Some of that have to do with him qualifying 6th. Truthfully that is a strong strength for Dillon at Pocono. In 3 career races, he qualified either 11th or better. I think he is a top 20 fantasy option with top 15 upside personally.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick had the car to beat Indy, but he came up short in the end. He been very strong this earlier this season at Pocono. He started near the front and had a very fast car especially on the long run. He finished 2nd and likely had the 2nd-best car behind Truex in my opinion. In fact he finished 2nd in the past 2 races at Pocono. Last June he probably had a top 5 , but he had issues in that race. I think he had a flat tire in that race around the midway point. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.8 average finish, 7.3 average start, 9.8 average running position, 44 laps led and 109.7 driver rating. Looking at his three starts as a SHR driver, Harvick have started inside the top 6 in every race. Historically speaking, he have been pretty consistent. Over his past 12 races, he have finished every race inside the top 17. Including 5 finishes inside the top 5. Overall in 29 career starts at Pocono, he have finished 25 of 29 races inside the top 20. However he haven't won yet. I think that changes on Sunday. He is my pick to win.
5-Kasey Kahne: If I had any faith left in Kasey Kahne, then I lost it at Indy. He start off the season very consistent as a top 15 option on a weekly basis. However his best finish over his past 4 Sprint Cup Series races is 19th at New Hampshire. Do I need to explain any more? I think Hendrick as a whole is completely lost right now. They are not showing the speed needed to contend for wins. It even more concerning for Kahne since his last top 10 (minus road course and plate tracks) was back at Dover in beginning of June. This could be a good week to use him though. Remember few season ago he was having a similar season. He needed a win to get in the postseason and he delivered at Pocono. In fact he been a strong performer in the August races. Since joining HMS, he have finishes of 2nd, 1st and 10th in August races at Pocono. However I am still not very high on the 5 car this week.
10-Danica Patrick: Let me put this in words that everyone understand: Patrick sucks at large flat racetracks. Seriously! Her best career finish at Indy or Pocono is 27th and that was this past Sunday at Indy. Yeah I am not impressed. In fact she is fool gold because she qualifies so well usually. Honestly I am not how she manages to finish poorly each time either. Over the past two seasons, she have had some solid runs going. But she seems to always find ways to ruin them. In short, I am avoiding her in all formats if possible. Michigan is coming up, so use her there instead.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin been little hot and cold lately, but he seems to be finding some consistency though. Over the past 7 Cup races (Dating back to Pocono), Hamlin have inside of the top 11 in 5 races. Including 3 top 5 in his past 4 races. For weeks I have thought Joe Gibbs Racing was onto something (speed wise) and they finding putting together the results. Something we should continue to expect this weekend. If JGR can run with the chevys at Indy, then I think they can repeat that Pocono. This happens to be a great track for the 11. I think this one of his best venues on the schedule. He finished 10th here earlier this season. I don't know if Hamlin will win this week, but I do think a lot of people will overlook him. That may be a mistake if you are searching for value. I think he could be a solid fantasy option. Depending how he looks in practice though.
16-Greg Biffle: I am not as high on Biff as would be if RFR have shown more consistency this season. Looking at Biff past three races: 16th , 27th and 19th. Yeah not exactly fantasy friendly numbers to look forward to. However he have ran very well at Pocono over the past two season. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 10.8 average finish with 3 Top 15, 16.5 average running position and 81.8 driver rating. Earlier this season he finished 12th here. If there a track he will run well at then it just might be Pocono. He been a very consistent driver here for a long time. Over his past 15 races at Pocono (Dating back to 2008), he have finished 16th or better in 12 races. Including 12th or better in 3 of the past 4 races. He nevertheless is a teen driver once again this week. A top 15 finish would be solid production for the Biff.
18-Kyle Busch: So while is Kyle Busch gonna slow it down? Not anytime soon it seems. He have won three straight races and now 4 of the past 5 overall. That is the golden rule in fantasy racing. Personally I thought a lot of people got away from that last week at Indy after practice. Kyle Busch burned everyone who did that. So ride him until the fire goes completely out. Pocono isn't a great track for Kyle, but I don't think it matter right now honestly. When you are hot it does not matter what track you are going to. Plus I think Joe Gibbs Racing have an advantage over the field right now. Not sure how they gained that advantage over the field, but it working for all their cars. Will Kyle Busch sweep the flat track portion of the schedule? He just might. He just might folks!
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is another driver who have turned it on lately. He didn't exactly nail it at Indy, but great to see Edwards running up front for more a few laps. I actually thought he would have a shot to the top 5, until that late restart when he got crazy loose and dropped like a freaking drop. Pocono isn't a great track for him, but it also been a decent track for him from time to time. He haven't scored a top 10 finish since 2012. But before bad struck in 2013 at Pocono where he finished 42nd and 29th. He was one of the most consistent drivers in the series. From 2008 to 2013 (12 races), he finished inside the top 12 nine (9) times. Not to mention he is a 2-time winner at this 2.5 mile racetrack. He finished 15th earlier this season but he had a very fast car. He started 2nd and led 16 laps, but faded late in the event. On the plus side, JGR seems to have more speed now.
20-Matt Kenseth: I mentioned this last week at Indy in my Preview (I think) that Kenseth had a solid run earlier this season at Pocono. If you have followed Kenseth career closely at Pocono, then you know he have struggled here for a long time. Before finishing 6th earlier this season, he have only scored 3 Top 10 finishes in his past 15 races. So yeah he haven't been that good here. On the plus side, he have something that a lot drivers are lacking and that is momentum. Since Kentucky, Kenseth have not finished worse than 7th. Like his JGR teammates , he seems to be hitting his stride at the right now. This kinda reminds of 2013 season on how strong the JGR Toyotas been lately. They aren't quite performing at that level, but this is the closest they been since.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is my go-guy most weeks and he will remain that this week as well. Logano best asset is his conisstency this season. He may not lead the most laps or have the most upside. Or have the best stats at most tracks, but it hard to deny how strong he been on a weekly basis. Over his past 7 races this season, he have scored 6 top 5 finishes. If we take out Daytona, then that streak goes back to Pocono. Only fitting we have returned to suite of the streak starter. Pocono been a very good track for Joey. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 90.8 driver rating. He have 4 of the past 5 races inside the top 10. Including a 4th-place run earlier this season. Truthfully he didn't have a top 5 car in that race. It more of a top 10-ish car. This been a great track for him from career point of view. In 13 career starts, he have finished 8 times inside the top 13. Including 6 of his past 7 ending in 13th or better. Not to mention he is a former winner of this race in 2012 from the pole. In fact he probably should have won this race from the pole in 2010, but had problems late in that race.
24-Jeff Gordon: I lost whatever shred of hope I had for Jeff Gordon making the chase on a win. I don't see it happening over the next 5 or 6 races before the chase starts. I truly believed Indy was his best shot and it possibly significantly damped his chances of making the chase field. Pocono have always been a great place for Jeff, so I wouldn't out the 24 as a fantasy pick. But it would be gamble way his season have gone. Over the past 4 races here, Gordon have compiled 7.5 average finish, 9.0 average start, 7.8 average running position and 114.9 driver rating. Over the past 20 races here, Gordon have finished 14th or better in 18 races. In fact he have finished inside the top 20 in all but one of those races. Gordon is usually one of the more safer fantasy options at Pocono even in a down season like he is having in 2015.
27-Paul Menard: Menard and Pocono don't agree with each other too much. He always find way into trouble for some reason. Earlier this season he finished several laps down after a series of strange sequences that started with him getting a penalty on pit road. He have finished 26th or worse in 5 straight races at Pocono. However before this bad luck at Pocono, he was consider one of the best fantasy value at this venue. From 2010-2012 (6 races), he finished in the 9th-16th place range. Including 3 straight Top 11 finishes in the 2011 and 2012 seasons. I think Menard have the potential but I think there better places ahead to use him though.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch have finished inside the top 10 in 7 straight races in the 2015 season. While Busch seems to be very fast each week, I think this is best track by far left before the chase. He was really strong here earlier this season. He finished 5th in that race, but never really had anything for the leaders. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 6.0 average finish, 3.0 average start, 6.8 average running position and 116.6 driver rating. Busch have finished inside the top 5 in 3 of the past 4 races at Pocono. Digging deeper, he have finished 13 of his past 19 races in the top 10. Including 9 Top 5 finishes. He is also a two-time winner at this 2.5 mile venue. His last win came in 2007.
42-Kyle Larson: After weeks of bad luck, Larson finally broke through with a top 10 finish at Indy. Big question is can he take that top 10 and build on it? I think he can at a track like Pocono. I would rate Pocono inside Larson's top 3 most successful tracks so far in his cup career (which isn't saying much). In 3 career starts, Larson have compiled 8.0 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 2 Top 10 finishes. Earlier this season he finished 8th. Thought have been given with Larson this season, but I think he have enough upside to be a top 10 fantasy option if he qualifies well enough.
48-Jimmie Johnosn: I really don't have a lot to say about Johnson. He haven't looked like Johnson since his at Dover (outside of Daytona and Sonoma). Honestly Pocono was probably the last race where he finished inside the top 5. Really it been a few years since Johnson have looked dominated here. I think his days of putting laps around the field is over. Not because he have regressed, but because the competition have progressed. Looking at the numbers, Johnson have finished better in the June race than the August race. Last time he finished better in the August race than the June race in the same season? 2008. So the chances of him finishing better than 4th seems unlikely. I am not as high on Johnson as I normally would be at Pocono. I think he still worth consideration though.
78-Martin Truex Jr: I had a strong hunch that Truex would get out of his funk at Indy and I nailed it in my update. Hopefully Truex keep making me look good too. Earlier this season he won at Pocono and led a race high 97 laps to victory. Nobody really could touch him. Okay maybe Harvick but that was on the long run. I think Truex will be hard to beat this week, especially with the 78 team getting their swagger back in their step with a much-needed top 5 finish at Indy. This might be Truex best racetrack before the chase start. If it is then I think Truex could score his second win of the season. Remember last season when Dale Jr sweep the Pocono races? Truex is primed to do the same.
88-Dale Jr: Last time we were at Pocono all we heard was Dale Jr this and Dale Jr that. This time around I doubt he hear that. In fact I am willing to beat people overlook him because he finished 11th. Truthfully the hype was what made him such a popular fantasy pick. Even though his stats are just off-charts too. But I think him sweeping this track in 2014 gave him that extra popularity. I don't expect that this time around as the excitement around him have disappeared really. Don't be fooled though. Over the past 4 races here, Dale Jr have compiled 4.5 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 116.3 driver rating. Dale been a machine here. Before finishing 11th in June, he wheeled off 4 straight Top 5 finishes. I think he get back into the groove this weekend.
****All stats are from Driveraverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
