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1-JMac: The driver of the No.1 car struggled all weekend at Texas and showed it was evident he wasn't even going to contend for a top 15 finish. Well, he didn't disappoint in that regard. His lack of long run speed like usual costed him. He crossed the line in 19th place on Sunday's night. He will look to rebound at Phoenix, hard to say if he will or not though. But I will say that the Ganassi cars has been better on the tracks of 1-mile or less this season than the bread and butter 1.5 milers. Earlier this season, but the 42 and 1 cars were garbage and barely contend for top 15 finishes, if that. However, they both has shown some speed in the chase at times though. So there's some hope. He has been good at Phoenix overall. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 11.4 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 89.0 driver rating. Good numbers overall, as he has posted 6 straight top 18 finishes at this track, too. With 5 straight coming inside the top 16. Worst of those finishes came back in March of 16th place. Prior to that, he had 4 straight top 15 finishes. If you don't have faith on him based on those results, then let's look at seasonal data in 2016. He has posted an 12.8 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 83.3 driver rating on the shorter-flats this season. Those venues would include the first Phoenix race, both Richmond races and both New Hampshire races. The last three (Both New Hampshire and the Richmond races) are more data relevant, since the other two races were at start of the season. You always want to look at more recent data, since it will give you a better chance to be most accuracy. He has posted two top 10 finishes in those three races. He finished 19th in the chase race at New Hampshire.
2-Brad Keselowski: I had far higher hopes for Brad Keselowski at Texas than he showed. He looked great in the early going but then after that he faded and was never heard from again. I really don't know what happened honestly. Oh well, that happens in racing all the time I guess. You look great at the start, but cannot keep up with the ever changing track conditions. He should rebound nicely at Phoenix though. It has been a great racetrack for him overall since joining Penske. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 10.2 average finish with 8.6 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. He finished 29th earlier this season, after ending multiple laps down. Prior to that, he has never finished worse than 18th place in the #2 car. That doesn't sound impressive, but that's 10 straight races. Pretty hard to be that consistent without some sort of issue. Looking deeper into the data pool, he has posted 11th or better in 8 straight from March 2012 to November 2015. Over that 9-race span, he has compiled 6 Top 6 finishes. He has been awesome on this surface, especially over the past 4 of 5 races. In that span of races, he has finished inside the top 10 in 4 of those races. Including 3 Top 6 finishes. He's easily one of the best drivers here. His record on similar shorter-flats this season has been almost as good as well. On shorter-flat this season (5 races), he has compiled 12.6 average finish with 10.8 average running position and 92.8 driver rating. That don't look great, but he has been awesome on the shorter-flats. Among the very best, especially in second half of the season. On the last three shorter-flats (Both New Hampshire and second Richmond races), he has compiled 7.7 average finish with 8.7 average running position and 100.8 driver rating. He's ranked inside the top 6 in all three categories.
3-Austin Dillon: I said Austin Dillon would surprise some people in my Fantasy Nascar Update on Saturday evening, well he ended up surprising me and everyone else with a solid top 5 run. However, he ended up being wrecked when Kevin Harvick turned me. I don't blame him for being upset, but I doubt Kevin intentionally wrecked him though. That's pure racing in my opinion. Still cannot take away Dillon's impressive run, when everyone expected him to drop back like a rock. He didn't. How will he do at Phoenix? Hard to say, but he has been good here in the past though. Over the past 4 races here (excluding Fall 2014 race - Had tough luck), he has compiled 17.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 77.0 driver rating. Not great by any means, but he has now posted 3 straight Top 20 finishes at this track. Including an 9th place finish earlier this season at Phoenix. That was by far his best finish and best performance at this racetrack. So there's not a lot to love about him based off of track history. That's okay though, so let's look at similar track record instead. On shorter flats in 2016, he has compiled 14.2 average finish with 15.4 average running position and 78.4 driver rating. On the shorter flats this season, he haven't finished worse than 20th. And have finished 13th-16th in his previous three races on them. So in total, 4 of 5 races on this type of track has ended in 9th-16th place range. That's usually his range on any given weekend. In basic terms, you can expect an average weekend from Dillon. He will most likely contend for low-teen finish and finish somewhere 12th-16th place. I would wait to see practice before I lock that in, but I am fairly confident in those predictions based off of the data I have has pulled so far.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick will need to win to likely advance to the championship race at Homestead, however he will be able to do that at his best track. I don't need to ramble off stats, since most of you already know how great he is at Phoenix. For the heck of it, I am going to do it anyways! No driver in the series has even came close to being on Harvick level recently at Phoenix. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 1.2 average finish with 2.2 average running position and 147.0 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he has posted 5 Top 2 finishes with 4 of them ending in wins. Even more impressive? Over the past 8 races here, he has posted 6 wins and 7 total Top 2 finishes. If we go back all way back to March 2012, he has posted 8 Top 2 finishes with 7 victories. He has dominated this new race surface, really with pretty much easy. The #4 car has been lights out at this track and you can expect more of the same this weekend. His record on the shorter flats this season also has stood out as well. On shorter flats in 2016, he has compiled an 3.2 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 116.2 driver rating. He has finished inside the top 5 in all 5 races on this type of track. No other driver has more than 3 top 5 finishes. In fact, only other drivers has more than 1 top 5 finish of the possible 5 races. That's crazy! Kevin Harvick is just a short-flat stud, just face it and accept. He doesn't get enough credit for it at all, people view him as primary intermediate track racer. He's my pick to win at Phoenix and advance to the championship race.
5-Kasey Kahne:Kahne has been on a roll of late, even after qualifying 31st, he still managed to finish inside the top 10 at Texas. Pretty good overall! Over the past 10 Sprint Cup races, he has posted 9 top 12 finishes with 7 of those races ending inside the top 10. He's killing it with consistency and if you followed by articles, then you know how much I love that consistency in my fantasy picks! He haven't been that good at Phoenix though. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 16.8 average finish with 16.4 average running position and 79.6 driver rating. Over the past 4 races alone, he has finished 21st or worse in 3 of those races. Not good, including the past two races ending in 26th and 22nd. It hasn't been very pretty at all, but there's real hope he can turn it around this weekend though. His numbers has been very good on the shorter flats in 2016. Especially over the past 4 races (both New Hampshire and Richmond races) on this type of track, with compiling an 11.0 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 89.9 driver rating. Those are some very solid numbers and has posted two top 10 finishes over his two most recent tries on the shorter flats. If there were ever a time to actually trust Kasey Kahne, then the time is now. I don't know if Kasey ever has been this consistent in his career with Hendrick Motorsports. Take advantage of it, because I have my doubts he will be this consistent again. He's an top 15 lock for me as of right now.
11-Denny Hamlin: Joe Gibbs Racing has a big weekend coming up at Phoenix coming up. They have one driver locked into the championship race, but have 3 more who haven't secured their place yet. At best only 2 of them can locked themselves in on Sunday, that assuming one of them wins or have a repeat round winner. More than likely, I would say only one JGR driver will get themselves in via points. Denny Hamlin has good as shot as the two, in my opinion. His numbers at Phoenix are solid overall. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 11.6 average finish with 14.4 average running position and 85.2 driver rating. He has been trending in the right direction lately at Phoenix, including 3 top 8 finishes over his past 4 races at this track. Also, he has 2 Top 5 finishes in that span. He finished 3rd back in March. That's no fluke either. He has been great on the shorter flats all season long. On shorter flats this season, he has compiled 7.8 average finish with 7.0 average running position and 109.2 driver rating. Of the 5 shorter flat races this season, only once did he fail to finish worse than 9th place. In 3 of those 4 races, he has posted finishes of 6th or better. Hamlin won at Richmond for anyone wondering and finished 3rd back in March here. Those are arguably the two most important races, when it comes to comparison of similarity. The first Phoenix race is obvious and Richmond because it is the most similar track to Phoenix. Headed into the weekend, I view Hamlin as a top 5 to top 7 contender with potential to go to victory lane.
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch had a overall blah Texas race mainly with him contending for a finish outside of the top 10. However, when he needed to drive to the front he did that. That's what makes a real champion in my opinion. Take a less than ideal car and turn it into an top 5 finish. Earlier in his career, he would had gotten frustrated by it. Not this Kyle though, he fought hard and got rewarded for it. Now, he will turn his attention to Phoenix. He doesn't need to win though, it would help but it's not a must for him. He just needs to finish one spot ahead of rest of the chase contenders. If he does that, he should be able to advance. Of course that assuming laps led doesn't a factor in it, as well. He will be very good this weekend at Phoenix. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 12.8 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 102.4 driver rating. Rowdy has always ran very well at Phoenix, he didn't always get the finishes though. But I has always considered this to be a ''Rowdy'' track. Over the past 5 races here, he has posted 4 Top 9 finishes. Including back-to-back 4th places here as well. Back in March, he led 75 laps on his way to that 4th place finish. If we dig further into the data pool, he has posted 6 Top 9 finishes over the past 8 races overall. In 5 of 6 races, he has finished 7th or better. He's not only good at Phoenix, but been awesome all year on the shorter flats though. On shorter flats in 2016, he has compiled 5.2 average finish with 4.0 average running position and 120.3 driver rating. Based on the ''performance'' numbers, he has been the best driver on this type of track. 4.0 average running position and 120.3 driver rating both ranked as best in the series in those 5 races. Statically speaking, he also ranked inside the top 2 in laps led, fast laps and average finish. Also we can throw in laps completed inside the top 15 as well. In basic terms, Rowdy gonna be a stud this weekend and you can count on that!
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards punched his ticket in the rain-shortened race at Texas and now doesn't have to worry about winning at Phoenix this weekend. With that said, I don't think he won't go for the win still though. I am sure, he will try to do everything in his power so that a guy like Harvick or Logano don't take a spot from his teammates. He also has been very good at Phoenix over course of his career at the Sprint Cup level. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 10.0 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 102.3 driver rating. Edwards was much better at start of his career here than more recently. He has two top 2 finishes over the past 7 races a this track. However, there's five races between those two finishes. And only one of them has resulted inside the top 10 (8th place). The rest has ended in 12th-21st. Not terrible, but not what we come to expect from Carl Edwards. Still, he hasn't finished worse than 13th place at this track with JGR in 3 starts. That's pretty good and he would had finished better in last November's race, but that rain really screwed up his finish. I am sure, he would had finished somewhere near the top 5. Probably just outside of the top 5, if it played out correctly. And he almost won back in March, he literally lost by inches to Kevin Harvick. So he has been very good at Phoenix recently. And his record on the shorter flats are pretty good, too. On the shorter flats in 2016, he has compiled 12.2 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 109.2 driver rating. His final finish position is clearly misleading. You can pretty much tell that by looking what I refer as ''performance numbers'', the ARP (Average Running position) and DR (Driver Rating) are what determines how a driver overall performed in a race. Both of those stats shows he was nearly an top 5 contender on those venues. He had issues at the first New Hampshire race and the 2nd Richmond race. Got involved in a wreck at New Hampshire late, while running about 10th place. And had suspension issues at Richmond that took him out of the running. The other three races on this type of track, he has posted finishes of 2nd, 1st and 6th. Pretty good, don't you think?
20-Matt Kenseth: Last season, Kenseth didn't have a opportunity to race at Phoenix or contend for a championship. This season, he has a chance to accomplish both of those things. However, the latter part will be much challenging though. He will have to battle with out with the other chasers in a tight points battle. This championship cut-off will likely come down to a position or two, so every spot will matter on Sunday. Kenseth has been very good at Phoenix. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 9.5 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 97.2 driver rating. Over that 4-race span, he has posted 3 Top 12 finishes. Including 2 Top 10 finishes in that span of races. Earlier this season, he finished 7th place at this racetrack. He wasn't really that good, but he wasn't terrible either. Among the JGR cars, he was probably the most. But he should be better this weekend. If you aren't confident in him based on past history, he does has good numbers on the shorter flats this season. On the shorter flats in 2016, he has compiled 11.0 average finish with 7.8 average running position and108.5 driver rating. Overall, there's isn't a lot to say about Kenseth that you don't already know. He won't likely contend for the win or lead a lot of laps. But he will likely be a lock for a top 10 finish and provide an solid starting foundation for your fantasy lineup. Headed into the weekend, I view him more as a top 10 driver than top 5. However, with solid pair of practices I am willing to change my tune about that.
22-Joey Logano: I really thought that Joey Logano had the win in the bag at Texas, but cars behind him short-pitting on him what really did him in. After losing the lead there, he was never able to regain it. If the race was held during the day, there would had been more passing going on. So good chance, Lognao would had gotten around Edwards at the end. He will look to win at Phoenix or get in on points. He will have a good chance at both of those. I would say the points is more likely, but he has been very good at Phoenix. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 7.8 average finish with 5.8 average running position and 111.1 driver rating. He has been great at Pheonix since joining Penske. He has only two bad races with the #22 team so far. Earlier this season he finished 18th and he finished 32nd in his debut back in 2013. In 5 races between those finishes, he has finished 3rd-9th in all five of those races. Looking past that, he has posted 3 Top 6 finishes over his past 5 races at this track. He also has been a great qualifier as well with the #22 team, as he has been the past two seasons. In the past 6 races at Phoenix, he has qualified 4th or better in 4 of 6 races. That aside, he also has performed well on the shorter-flats tracks as well. On this type of track, he has compiled 10.0 average finish with 13.2 average running position and 88.9 driver rating. Not great numbers when you really look at it and compare to other top drivers. But his past 4 finishes of this type of track is 8th, 3rd, 10th and 11th. Very consistent, no finishes outside of the top 11. And if you take out the 18th place finish at Phoenix at start of the year, he has an 8.0 average finish. Not significantly better, but still he has been good this season. Also, remember the Penske cars has shown more speed in the chase than they did recently. That's another important thing to remember, if the 22 car has good speed off the truck then he should be a fine fantasy option. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 guy.
24-Chase Elliott: Chase Elliott should be good this weekend at Phoenix, but I still say he will be better at Homestead next week though. Elliott is still a working progress on the shorter-flats and other short racetracks. His numbers aren't bad overall, but you can see that he is way better on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks though. Earlier this season, he was good at Phoenix overall. He started 17th, finished 8th and posted 101.9 driver rating. So overall, he was pretty impressive for making his season debut on this type of track. How has he fair on the shorter-flats in general this season? Decent I would say. On the shorter-flats in 2016, he has compiled 17.2 average finish with 13.2 average running position and 85.7 driver rating. Not great numbers by any means, but not terrible ones for a rookie though. I figured he would be inconsistent on this type of track though, it was pretty clear they would give him trouble at times. That's evident by only one top 10 finish in 5 races on this type track. Headed into the weekend, I am not super high on him overall. I think he will contend for a top 15 finish but I doubt anything beyond that. He may sneak out a top 10 finish, but otherwise I would say this will be continual learning curve for him.
41-Kurt Busch: I have been very hard on Kurt Busch all season long for his lack of speed and top 5 upside. Maybe you are seeing why now, with how mediocre he has been all season long. He is a top tier driver afterall, so it only fair to judge him harsher than a guy such Austin Dillon or Ryan Blaney who still learning the ropes. Kurt lack of upside is what kills his fantasy value for me. He has been strong in the past here though. He has compiled 12.8 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 101.0 driver rating. Since joining SHR, Kurt has only one poor finish at Phoenix and that was his debut back in 2013. Since then, he has posted 4 straight finishes of 7th. So his record recently has been pretty good, it helps that he has a teammate to look off in Kurt Busch. With that said, he hasn't impressed me this season very much. Especially in second half of the year, he hasn't been terrible. But at same time, it not like he is blowing up the nascar community. It has been pretty clear in the chase that he is the worst of the final 8 drivers. The other 7 really has been in another zip code than him. Headed into the weekend, I view Kurt as top 10 driver and that's pretty much it.
42-Kyle Larson: I am not really sure what happened to Kyle Larson at Texas. He looked great in the first portion of the race. He actually had great long run speed in the first couple of runs. Then suddenly he faded quickly down the leaderboard. I am guessing his team didn't keep up with the changes. That has been a reoccurring issue for him. We saw it more than a couple times happen on the intermediate tracks. Good top 5 car, until he fades because his team doesn't make the proper adjustments. At least that what I am going to assume here, otherwise I cannot understand why he faded like he did there in the second half. Anyways onto Phoenix. Statically speaking, this is one of Kyle's worst tracks on the schedule. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 15.2 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 86.5 driver rating. I say this is statically one of Kyle's worst tracks because he only has one top 10 finish in 5 starts. There's several tracks that he has only one top 10 at, but majority of them he has at least one DNF-like finish as well. At Phoenix, he haven't finished worse than 21st place. I make it sound really bad, but Larson actually haven't too bad here. As he has finished 10th-13th place in 3 of the past 4 races at this track. Larson also has good numbers on the shorter-flats this season. On similar tracks, he has compiled 11.2 average finish with 13.2 average running position and 85.6 driver rating. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 driver with the potential to finish inside the top 5. But I am still on the fence about him though. He always has enough upside to finish up front, but usually it comes with serious risk. Also, I am just not feeling Larson really. I am much higher on him at the season finale at Homestead.
48-Jimme Johnson: Johnson disappointed many people this past weekend past weekend at Texas, but honestly you probably shouldn't be too shocked by it. I mean, if you tracked his lap times than you already knew he didn't have a race-winning car. Nor would he contend for a top 5 finish. If he didn't pit at the end of the race, he would had finished about 7th place and that was around the spot I had him heading into the race. Instead, he finished 11th. Not bad for him though, since it doesn't really matter where's he finish at. Once again this weekend, he will be able to race more aggressively than other with an win in his back pocket already. Johnson always been very good here, too. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 14.4 average finish with 11.2 average running position and 95.0 driver rating. He has one bad race in that 5-race span and that was an 39th place back in November 2014. Otherwise, he has posted 3 Top 11 finishes in a row entering Phoenix this weekend. Overall, he has posted 6 Top 11 finishes over the past 7 races. In that 7-race span, he has posted 4 Top 6 finishes as well. A fun but not really relevant fun fact about Jimmie Johnson at Phoenix? The last 8 times he has qualified 4th or better at Phoenix, he has finished 6th or better every single time. Pretty impressive, enough though it likely means nothing. Still, it has happened 8 times in a row. It could happen 9 times in a row, if he qualifies well again. With that said, the last 4 times he has qulaifed worse than 5th, he has not finished inside the top 10. His finishes are as followed: 11th (started 20th), 39th (started 15th), 32nd (started 24th) and 14th (started 16th). Also it should be noted those are the only 4 races, he has qualified outside of the top 5 at Phoenix since the 2011 season. That's 10 races by the way, for anyone is wondering. There's a lot of good reason to roster Jimmie Johnson this weekend.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr looked great at Texas, but once again came up short at Texas. He probably sick of coming up short there, that's like the 3rd time since 2012 that has happened now. Where he legitimately had a car that was good enough to win, but couldn't find a way to win. Oh well that sums up Martin's career at most tracks. He will look to put that behind him and refocus at Phoenix. He will be good this weekend, as he hasn't been terrible at Phoenix. Over the past 5 races here, he has compiled 13.8 average finish with 11.6 average running position and 90.0 driver rating. He has been very consistent over his past 6 races at this track. In that span of races, he has posted 5 finishes in the 8th-14th place range. Since joining FRR, he has posted 4 straight finishes of 14th or better. Including a pair of 14th place finishes in back-to-back Phoenix races. So he has been pretty predictable, which good. But you will like his numbers on the shorter-flats even more. On shorter-flats this season, he has compiled 9.8 average finish with 6.4 average running position and 113.0 driver rating. Statically speaking, his numbers are second best in terms of average running position and driver rating to only Kyle Busch. And remember, he had the best car back at New Hampshire, too and had the car to beat back at Richmond as well. And remember the first New Hampshire race? He also had the best car in that race as well. He has led 123 or more less in the last three shorter-flats. That's crazy, he haven't won yet on this type of track. It only matter of time now though. I have him as a top 5 driver headed into the weekend!
***All Stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
