2017 Fantasy Nascar Picks (Dega)

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Some weeks, you have really good scores in Fantasy Nascar, others you have ones that good enough to get by. Then there are weeks, where you wondered what exact went wrong. That's name of the game, folks. Richmond just one of those tracks that you will score pretty well or you just won't.

Time to move onto Talladega! This is a tough track to figure out when it comes to fantasy nascar picks. I personally hate making picks for plate races. I have done okay in the past, but for some reason, it is never really that good. I guess, that can be said for just about everyone. So how do you attack this place? There is not a wrong way to go about it really, nor is there is a right way either. You could go the typical approach and go with the best plate racers in the series. More times than not, it usually leads to fantasy success. There's so many ways you put a lineup together. My best advice for this weekend? Go with your gut and pray that your picks survive the mess! Let's get started!

Yahoo -

A:

Start - Brad Keselowski

Bench - Dale Jr

Reasons -I think two of the best fantasy choices this weekend are Keselowski and Dale Jr. Both are great drafters and former winners here. So who's the better choice? Hard to say, but I am leaning toward Keselowski. He has been the best plate racer in the series for the past couple seasons and the Fords are strong this season so far on the plate tracks.

B:

Start - Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Bench - Chase Elliott and Paul Menard

Reasons - Ricky Stenhouse Jr got me some qualifying points with starting on the pole, so why not go for some lead laps points as well? I think that's a good call, especially since he has a really good track record as well. So who should I pair him with? Elliott is too valuable, so he's crossed off already. Dillon or Menard? Menard would be a great call, but I am leaning toward Dillon. Solely because I like sticking with the majority at plate track and I think more people will have him than Menard

C:

Start - Landon Cassill

Bench - David Ragan

Reasons - C-list is all about saving this week and that's exactly what happening, too. Cassill is a pretty good plate racer, so I will take my chances with him

Fantasy Live - 48, 1, 2, 37 and 43

Reasons - There's 188 laps, which means you should go after drivers that start deeper in the field. Which is exactly why I am targeting 4 drivers that starting worse than 20th. Johnson is a underrated plate racer and starts 30th. Jamie Mac will find himself at the front at some point, but starts 23rd. I would like him to start further back, but I am okay with that. Chris Buscher is on my team because he is starting 34th. At worst, he will lose 6 spots in that department for a cheap price. Aric is on because of his success on plate races and will start 22nd. Also, I don't really like anyone else in his price range

Sleeper - Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Winner -Brad Keselowski

2017 Fantasy Nascar Early Rankings (Dega)

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Early Rankings -

1. Brad Keselowski
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Joey Logano
5. Kyle Busch
6. Dale Jr
7. Jimmie Johnson
8. Jamie Mac
9. Clint Bowyer
10. Kyle Larson
11. Matt Kenseth
12. Martin Truex Jr
13. Kurt Busch
14. Chase Elliott
15. Austin Dillon
16. Ryan Newman
17. Ryan Blaney
18. Paul Menard
19. Kasey Kahne
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
21. Erik Jones
22. Aric Almirola
23. AJ Dinger
24. Ty Dillon
25. Trevor Bayne
26. Daniel Suarez
27. Danica Patrick
28. Cole Whitt
29. Landon Cassill
30. Chris Buescher

Twitter - @MattAleza 

2017 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses (RIR)

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Richmond isn't a track that really benefit the mid-pack drivers like, say, a place such as Bristol did last week. Or Martinsville. Richmond has a lot of similarities to (another shorter-flat track) Phoenix. So if you were doing research this week, you should had been looking there to get a jump on the competition. What can you expect in today's race? Expect a lot of big names to be up at the front sooner or later. I think there will be some comers and goers throughout the event, but in the end, I think the race winner will come from a top 10 starter. More often than not, the winner at Richmond is from a top 10 starter. More specifically, there's a great chance that it will be from a top 5 starter. The past 5 Richmond races, the winner has came from the top 4 starting positions. The front row, itself, has produced the race winner in nearly 1/3 of the time at Richmond!

What's the point of me pointing out of that? Hitting on solid sleepers and dark horses will be what set apart the men and boys. Your average fantasy player will hit on a top driver, but a great fantasy player will find that hidden gem. That's there is where my expertise comes into play. Who are my favorite favorite plays today? Well here's you go!

Sleepers -

Aric Almirola - Aric Almirola is one of my favorite sleepers today. He will start 25th (which makes him a nice play in every format) and looked pretty good overall so far. In final practice, Aric was pretty happy with his car. Richard Petty Motorsports' twitter account said that Aric was overall happy with his car. When looking at the lap times, I would say that he is capable of making it into the top 20 and possibly a little more. Aric probably doesn't hold much fantasy value in standard scoring leagues that only score the final position. However, in deeper scoring leauges, he is someone that I always try to eye. Especially when he qualifies 25th or worse with a decent car.

Ryan Newman - When you take out his win at Phoenix (on pit road gamble), you are a little unimpressed by how Ryan Newman (and RCR in general) has performed. Outside of that Phoenix win, he has 1 top 10 finish. That finish was at Martinsville. Phoenix and Martinsville are categorized in the shorter-flat tracks group. Richmond is as well. So it is no accident that Newman has swept the top 10 on this sort of track. This weekend, he haven't been great, but he haven't been too bad either. I think he is in that next group between 11th-15th. That's typically Newman though. A low-teen driver with upside to snag a top 10 finish. That's exactly the position Newman is in headed into the race, in my opinion.

Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne isn't a driver that I like in general. Trust me, I been burned enough in the past to hold dislike toward him. With that said, the 5 team has been bringing quality cars to the track recently. Only problem is Kahne haven't been able to bring it across the line in the top 10 since early March. I am okay with that because it is about the ponetial, not past results. What facts do we know? Kahne has solid speed this weekend. Kahne has a really solid track record here recently. 3 Top 6 finishes in his past 4 races at Richmond. 3 of his last 5 spring races at Richmond also ended in 6th or better. So good track record and good speed in his car. That's good enough to take a flier on him! Would I recommend it? Probably not. But it not the worst idea I have heard this weekend.

Dark Horses -

Clint Bowyer - Clint Bowyer is a very solid dark horse pick this weekend. Remember dark horses are different than sleepers. Sleeper has to do with value and being under the radar. Now, dark horses are drivers that has great potential to win but aren't really expected to win. That right now describes Clint Bowyer to a exact tee. He has potential, but isn't actually expected to win. I will gladly take a shot with Clint Bowyer this weekend at Richmond. He's good this weekend overall. His crew chief said that Bowyer was consistent and they are going to be really good, if they keep it up. I like positive statements like that from a crew chief. Clint also has 2 Top 5 finishes in his past 3 races this season as well. His Richmond's record is pretty solid as well. If you exclude last season's races, he has finished 10th or better in 5 of his last 7 races. When MWR were at their peak in 2012 through 2014, Clint had 3 top 3 finishes in a 5-race span (September 2012 - September 2014). And 4 top 7 finishes in that 6 race span (April 2012- September 2014). Good track record, good speed, a lot of momentum = A dark horse pick to win!

Chase Elliott - Right now is the best time to climb aboard the Elliott's bandwagon! Why? Well, at the moment, it seem like Elliott has hit a snug in the road. The past few races, he haven't led any laps. What made him such a desirable fantasy option last year and early this season was running up front and leading laps. He haven't led a lap since Martinsville. His stock is trending in the wrong direction, due to his potential slipping a little. This weekend, most experts view him as a latter top 10 driver. I would agree with that overall. With that said, it is hard to overlook that he could easily find himself in the top 5 before the checkers. Elliott is one of those drivers that has unlimited upside.

Jamie Mac - Jamie Mac may be my favorite dark horse pick of the weekend. I think he is gonna win before we are in the chase and I think it will come on this kind of track. The 1 car been fast since unloading and look to have a car capable of winning. In practice, the 1 car looked better than the 42. And Larson had a car with top 5 speed. I thought both CGR cars were there with the Gibbs guys. Jamie Mac has a lot of long run speed in his car. Hamlin and Busch may have a little more than him, but he is right there though. I love what Jamie brings to the table. His consisency at Richmond, also makes him a great play for today's race. If you are looking for a solid dark horse pick, then you may not find a better one than Jamie Mac. I think he will challenge for a top 10 finish at least and be close to the top 5.

***All stats from DriverAverages.com

Have a question or want to chat?

Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2017 Fantasy Nascar RaceDay Thoughts (RIR)

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RaceDay Thoughts -

Jeff Nathans (@JeffNathans18):

-Gibbs cars look really strong this weekend so far. 

-The CGR cars, both Larson and JMac, are looking really good. Especially on the long runs

-I think Denny Hamlin is gonna be great today, even though a lot of people are overlooking him due to slow start. I am not!

-People stop comparing Richmond to Bristol. The only thing similar about them is they are short tracks. They are vastly different. Compare Richmond to Phoenix, if you are going to compare

Matt Aleza (@MattAleza):

-Track position will be huge today at Richmond.

-The winner has came from the front row at Richmond in 31% of the time. Matt Kenseth and Ryan Blaney are starting on the front row

- Clint Bowyer's crew chief said that they were really consistent toward end of final practice. That defintely not a bad thing.

-A good value pick this week could be a guy like Aric Almirola. He's fairly cheap in most fantasy games. Him starting 25th makes Aric a really solid play in most fantasy formats. Good chance he will move up about 5 to 7 spots

Yahoo lineups -

Jeff's lineup - 18,31,1,77

Matt's lineup - 18,21,31,13

Sleeper -

Jeff's pick - Ryan Newman 

Matt's pick - Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Winner -

Jeff's pick - Matt Kenseth

Matt's pick - Kyle Busch

2017 Fantasy Nascar Picks (RIR)

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Fantasy Nascar Picks -

Yahoo -

A:

Start - Kyle Busch (8)

Bench - Joey Logano (6)

Reasons - This is my easiest decision of the week right here. Joey Logano will be starting in the back and Kyle Busch has a top 5 car and starts 7th. Is there anymore that needs to be said?

B:

Start - Ryan Newman (7), Ryan Blaney (7)

Bench - Kyle Larson (6), Clint Bowyer (8)

Reasons -Newman and RCR seems to be still struggling on the intermediate tracks, but they been half way decent on these shorter tracks though. So logically I am rolling with Ryan Newman. So Blaney, Larson or Bowyer as the second choice? Well Larson is starting deeper than I would like and I don't think he will score max points. So Kyle is out of the running. Bowyer or Blaney? Really tough call as I think they will only end up 2-3 spots apart. I am leaning Blaney right now because he will have a shot at leading laps. Remember what happened at Texas? Started 2nd and got to the lead eventually. I hope for something similar.

C:

Start - Ty Dillon (7)

Bench - Daniel Suarez (8)

Reasons - I don't think there is much difference between Dillon and Suarez, but I think Suarez has far more room to improve than Dillon does. I think Dillon's ceiling is top 15 most weeks and he has finished 16th or 17th a couple times this season. Like I said, there is not much room for him to improve right now. 

Fantasy Live -20,42,18 ,43 and 72

Reasons - I am going with a risky lineup, but one that may workout. I think Matt Kenseth can lead a good amount of laps early on. So I am rolling with him. So I want a couple drivers from the back that can move forward. Kyle Busch will start 7th and should contend for a top 5. So I will take that pick. Kyle Larson will start 18th place and should move up at least 10 spots and possibly more. Aric Almirola is a value play at 13.25. He will start 25th and will move up at least 5 spots. I see possibly 7 spots from where I am standing. Cole Whitt will round out as value play and budget option. He is cheap but should move forward to about 30th-33rd range. He's serves his purpose for the most part.

Sleeper - Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Winner - Kyle Busch

Twitter - @MattAleza

2017 Fantasy Nascar Update (RIR)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

1. Matt Kenseth - Let me tell you a thing or two about Matt Kenseth. He isn't a driver that will come out and show his hand in practice or qualifying. He like to keep the people guessing, so when he's start up front with a good car, then watch out! That's exactly what happened this weekend, too. He's started on the pole and a lot of people view him as one of the guys to beat. His car looked pretty strong in final practice and that's a bad sign for the competition. Here's how things has gone when Matt Kenseth has started 3rd or better at Richmond, since joining JGR. In April 2013, he's started on the pole and led 140. Finished 7th that day. In August 2015, he's started 2nd and led 352 laps. Simply dominated the event from lap 1 and won. In last September's race, he's started 3rd and led 3 laps, but finished 38th after wrecking. It should be noted that he was a top 3 driver before hitting the wall. Behind Denny Hamlin and Truex Jr, I would say that he was the best of the rest.

2. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch is fast once again this weekend at Richmond. This is the type of track that the Gibbs cars are at their best right now, in my opinion. They are still searching on the intermediate tracks, but I think the Gibbs camp will be strong in Sunday' race. In final practice, Clint Bowyer said the 18 car was fast as shit. The driver of the No.18 car been a badass this season on the shorter flat tracks. He's dominated Martinsville and had the car to beat at Phoenix. I would consider Phoenix as the most similar track that we visited so far. He was head and shoulders the man there. Kyle had the 8th-best ten lap average in final practice. Rowdy will start from 7th, but I don't expect him to stay there very long though.


3. Brad Keselowski - I like Keselowski more than most do this weekend honestly. He doesn't seem to have a lot of short-run speed, but in final practice he seemed to get better on the long run. He was down on the ten lap average more than I would had liked, but as a run went on it seemed like he just got better and better. That's usually the case with the driver of the No.2 car. Paul Wolf knows how to dail that car in and Keselowski knows how to drive. This week, a lot of people steered away from him. I am not sure if it was because of poor finishes recently here or the egg that he dropped last week. Either way, there wasn't a lot of buzz around him. I was kinda surprised about that honestly. I figured more people would had been on his bandwagon. Outside of Bristol and Daytona, Keselowski been putting up some big-time numbers this season. He will start from the 15th position, but I think he will find himself in the top 5 before it is all over though.

4. Denny Hamlin - Denny Hamlin will start from 16th, but I loved the speed that he's showed in final practice. He was fast on the short run and was pretty good on the long run, too. Some drivers were really good on the short runs and other were really good on the long runs. Hamlin was solid on both. I don't know, if there was another driver that I could say that about. I think a lot of people will overlook him because of that, but I am not. He's won here last fall, after him and Truex Jr dominated the event for the most part. Him having one of the cars to beat shouldn't come as a shock, either. This is one of his best tracks on the schedule and always seems to be pretty good here. With that said, he's seems to be better in the fall races than the spring races. However, I think he is more than capable of finishing inside the top 5, maybe more on Sunday!

5. Kevin Harvick - Harvick always been a pretty good driver here and I don't expect that to change much honestly. I don't think he will really fall off the wagon, even though SHR haven't had the speed they had in recent seasons. In final practice, he was quite a bit down on the ten-lap average chart in 22nd. But he was 16th on the 15-lap average chart and 14th on the 20-lap average chart. His speed and lap times didn't really changed much. It seems to be more consistent than other drivers, hence why he rose up through the field on those charts. While others weren't as consistent and saw their times fall-off and down the charts. Harvick will fine, he will be a top 10 cotender with more than enough upside to challenge for a top 5 finish. He does have back-to-back top 5 finishes, if that makes anyone feel better. Right now, he is still trying to find himself but I think he will be just fine and be a top 10 contender on Sunday.

6. Martin Truex Jr - A lot of people are looking at that fast-ten lap average and saying wow Truex Jr is going to be a stud this weekend. And you know, that very well could happen. But I have some concerns when I look at the data from final practice. His longest run in final practice was about 18 laps, which worries me because the fastest cars were at least 25, most made close to or 30+ laps. Also, he only made 46 laps total for the session. Outside of Ryan Newman, he's ran the few laps in the session among the big-name drivers. That's not always a bad thing, but usually not a great thing though. I view him as a top 10 driver for now. I am by no means writing him off and saying he cannot go and win. He was great here last fall and had the 2nd-best car. However, I am saying there is reason to believe that he may not be that driver this week though. Prove me wrong Martin!

7. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson will start deeper in the field on Sunday afternoon than normal this season, as he will start from the 18th starting spot. That's nothing new though, as he's started 34th at Texas. Kyle has been a stud all season long, finding himself in the top 5 in every race at some point. More often than not, he's stay there for most of the event. Getting to the front this weekend will be tougher with track position being so tough. However, he has a great car for Sunday's race. He has really good long run speed, which should help him move through the field. I think you need a car like that to get anywhere at this track. Doesn't hurt that Kyle is one of the best at restart this season, too. Larson big issue last season here (in the fall race) was fading on the long runs, but being fast on the short runs. I think the opposite will be true when the green flag waves on Sunday afternoon.

8. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson has won back-to-back races now and will look to make it three in a race. However, I don't think that will happen. Yes, Johnson can go on a hot streak like he is on right now. However, I just don't see him winning at Richmond this weekend. A lot of people trying to compare Richmond and Bristol. Just stop right now, you are making yourself look stupid. Outside of both being short tracks, they have nothing in common. Richmond is a short-flat track. If you are going to compare Richmond to something, then compare it to Phoenix. They are similar tracks, not Bristol. Alright back on topic, I think Johnson will be top 10 good, but I am not jumping on the bandwagon yet. He doesn't look to have a top 5 car to me and this isn't a great track for him. In his past 16 races, he has only finished in the top 5 in three 3 races. And only 8 Top 10 finishes in those 16 races. That's not very Jimmie Johnson-like. He does have 5 straight Top 11 finishes here though.

9. Jamie Mac - There a lot of good drivers to choose for this final ranking spot, but I am going with Jamie Mac though. He has a lot of long run speed in his car. He may not be that good on the short runs, but like teammate Kyle Larson, he's stout on the long runs though. He's loves his car on the long run. He was pretty happy with it. Doesn't hurt that he has a pretty good record as well. Over the past two seasons, he has 10.0 average finish and that's good enough for the 8th-best average finish in that span. I think there's a lot to like him this weekend from the 10th starting spot.

10. Joey Logano - I had Logano ranked 3rd in my final overall rankings as I love what he brings to the table, but after I originally posted my article, it was then announced he would start in the back. That was a major bummer for me, as I had to rewrite my thoughts on him. I don't hate Joey by any means, I still think that he will be a fine fantasy pick. Problem is, his most attractive asset was his starting position. Track position is important here and he won't have it to start the race. It will be fun to watch go through the field, but starting dead last is tough no doubt though. Add in that, he haven't blown me away on the speed charts and he get knocked down the my rankings pretty good. I think Logano will still be a top 10 finisher, but there's a lot better options out there. 



****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheat.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18


 

2017 Fantasy Nascar Final Rankings (RIR)

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Final Rankings -

1. Kyle Busch
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Joey Logano
4. Kyle Larason
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Brad Keselowski
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Jimmie Johnson
9. Martin Truex Jr
10. Chase Elliott
11. Jamie Mac
12. Ryan Blaney
13. Clint Bowyer
14. Ryan Newman
15. Kasey Kahne
16. Erik Jones
17. Kurt Busch
18. Erik Jones
19. Dale Jr
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
21. Aric Almirola
22. AJ Dinger
23. Daniel Suarez
24. Paul Menard
25. Ty Dillon
26. Trevor Bayne
27. Danica Patrick
28. Michael McDowell
29. Landon Cassill
30. David Ragan