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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: JMac could only finish 12th on Sunday night at Charlotte, despite running in the top 10 for most of the night. JMac is still having a very strong season and could easily rebound at Dover. Last fall, the CGR cars had horrible race and ended both of their championship runs. They will look for revenge this weekend. CGR been fast week in and week out and I think JMac will be in for another strong run. He has been pretty good at Dover lately, too. In his past 7 races here, he has finished 13th or better four times. Including finishes of 4th and 7th in 2015. Last year, he had two poor results but neither were his fault though. He's finished 21st in the spring race here, but he got caught up in a big wreck. In the fall's race, he had a mechanical issue and finished 40th. Bad luck was the main theme in 2016 for JMac at Dover! Don't be fooled by his results last year, folks!
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski had a tough short race at Charlotte, after that accident with Chase Elliott. It is okay though, because I think he will rebound rather nicely at Dover this upcoming weekend. Keselowski haven't had many bad races this season, so I highly doubt that we see back-to-back poor results from him. Dover is also a pretty solid racetrack for him, too. Over his past 4 races here, he has compiled 9.5 average finish with 2 top 10 finishes and 93.5 driver rating. In his past 6 races at Dover, Keselowski has posted 4 Top 6 finishes. Including finishes of 4th and 6th in 2016. He finished 2nd twice in 2014 as well. For his career, Keselowski has 12.4 average finish, including a win back in 2012 here. When looking at it, Dover is one of his better tracks on the schedule. Keslowski will be a player this weekend, but I have a strong feeling that he may be under the radar though.
3-Austin Dillon: I will be completely honest here, I was shocked that Austin Dillon ran as well as he did for the race and was even more shocked that he won. I thought he was a couple years from winning a cup race. Even though, he didn't truly earn that win, he did win and it was a great call by the No.3 team. Like teammate Ryan Newman earlier in the year, a late race gamble paid off. Props to that organization for finding a way to win. As for Dover, it is not a great track for him since joining cup competition. In 7 career starts, he has only finished in the top 20 twice. One of those two finishes ended in 20th place in his second career start. However, he did finish 8th in last fall's race though. Dillon is having a up and down season so far in 2017, but it seems like they made gains with Dillon after that crew chief shakeup. I think last week's win for Dillon was a fluke, but only to certain extent. Dillon win had some luck with it, but he was top 10 good in the race. That alone says how much Dillon benefited from that shakeup. Earlier in the season, he could barely run top 20 and sometimes not even that. It will be interesting how he does over the next couple races here.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick had a strong race at Charlotte and will look to use the momentum entering Dover. In the fantasy nascar preview last week, I said that Harvick would lead some laps but eventually fade. He did exactly what I expected him to. Is that bad thing? Yes and no. Yes, it is bad that he faded. But he is running up front and more competitive of late. It is hard to complain about that. He just haven't put together a full race. He's pretty good here at Dover, one of the best in the series, in my opinion. In his past 4 races here, he has compiled 13.7 average finish with 111.9 driver rating. Those numbers don't do justification on how good he been here. In his past 5 races here, three times he has led at least 117 laps. He's led at least 91 laps in 4 of those 5 races. The only race he didn't? Last fall's race, where he finished 37th place. Harvick had bad luck in both races last year here at Dover, after finishing among the top 2 in 2015 in both races. He just had bad luck here last season. In the spring race, he had the car to beat throughout the weekend. I think he could have dominated that event, if he didn't get caught up in that wreck. He did lead 117 laps and looked untouchable for those opening laps though.
5-Kasey Kahne: We are entering the 13th race of the season and I have yet to see any sort of consistency out of Kasey Kahne. I am sorry, but that is buzzer killer for me. If you don't any consistency (good consistency, too), then you are worthless in terms of fantasy value. That may be just me because how much I put into, but I have always believe consistency is key to success. Kasey does not have it and doesn't have the speed, either. I have said it all season that Kasey haven't shown me anything and until he does, I want no part of him.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin had his best race of the season at Charlotte and entering part of the season that I am expecting him to come alive more. Last week was very encouraging from the 11 team, but Hamlin have not been able to put together back-to-back strong races. He will have to at some point this season, could it be this weekend? Maybe or maybe not. How has he done at Dover? In his past 6 races here, he has compiled 4 Top 12 finishes in those 6 races. Including finishes of 9th and 7th in last season's races at Dover. Something else I have noticed about him at Dover lately? In his past three spring races, he has compiled a driver rating over 101.0. While 2 of his past three races has ended in 7th and 5th. Something tells me that Hamlin could be a very sneaky fantasy option this weekend, if you are feeling lucky!
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is coming off another strong performance at Charlotte, a race, where he finished 2nd place. A race, where he had a top 3 car most of the night. Dover is another great track for Kyle. He is one of the first drivers that I think of at this place and he should be a contender for the win. Last season, he had a tough spring race. He started in the top 10, but just wasn't that good and faded as the event went on. He just wasn't competitive from my memory. I remember him running outside of the top 10 or top 12 before being involved in a wreck. The spring races in general haven't been good over the past three seasons, honestly. His last three spring's races: 30th, 36th and 42nd. He's finished 2nd in his past two fall races here though. In his past 10 races overall at Dover, Kyle Busch has compiled 6 Top 10 finishes. If you are a trend believer then you may want to stay away from him then. In his past 5 spring races (May/June races) at Dover, he has only one finish better than 29th. So 4 of his past 5 Dover spring races (dating back to 2012) has ended in 29th or worse. However, he did finish 1st in 2010, 4th in 2011 and 4th in 2013 spring races though. In fact, Kyle has two career wins here and both of them came in the first Dover race. Don't you just love trends?
19-Daniel Suarez: Suarez keep on getting better and better as we get further into the season, this is something that most of us expected though. He is learning more and applying it effectively. What is most impressive about him? He is a great learner and doing what a rookie should be. He is not making mistakes and consistently making laps. More importantly, he is finishing on the lead laps almost every week. He has never made a start at Dover, so there is not much to go on. But I think it will be similar to what we had seen in recent weeks. Daniel will ride around make laps, get comfortable and then run towards the front in the end. I think he will be a 15th to 20th place driver overall, honestly. He is capable of finishing in the top 15, no doubt!
20-Matt Kenseth: The driver of the No.20 car have had a tough start to the season with a lot of bad luck, but he did have his best race of the season at Charlotte though. He ran top 5 for that entire event and it by far his best performance of the 2017 season. His only other top 5 finish this season was at Bristol earlier last month. Dover is one of Matt's best tracks and not many drivers (ever) has had much success as he has had here! More recently (over the past two seasons), he has the 3rd-best driver rating (110.2) to only Kevin Harvick (111.9) and Martin Truex Jr (120.1) in the past four Dover races. In that 4 race span, he has only 13.7 average finish but don't be fooled though. His numbers are misleading because of finishing 39th in 2015. He had suspension issue, while running in the top 5. Overall in his past 7 races, he has compiled 6 finishes of 7th or better. In his past 6 Dover races, he has posted 4 Top 5 finishes. Including finishes of 1st and 5th in 2016 here.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney had a tough break at Charlotte while being a top 10 contender for most of the event prior to that. Honestly, I kinda had a feeling something would happen to him. I just had that gut feeling entering the race. I just wish I would had taken my gut more seriously though. As for this weekend, I think Blaney will be a decent driver, I just don't think he will be much of a threat. I think his best kind of track is the 1.5 mile and intermediate tracks in general. I think the road courses and shorter tracks will be a weakness for him. Technically, Dover is an intermedaite track, but it isn't a sort of track that I think he will have one of best races. I think that could be next month at Michigan. Places like Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Las Vegas, etc are the places I am highest on him at. Dover? I am going to wait and see on him. For what it is worth, he did finished 8th in last spring race and posted a decent 84.3 driver rating. Which translates into a somewhere around 13th-16th place guy roughly.
22-Joey Logano: Logano had a very rough weekend at Charlotte and struggled since unloading. They got the 22 better from Thursday, but he was nothing beyond a top 15 driver for most of the event. He just wasn't that good. If we look back at Kansas, he was a top 15 driver there, too. So back-to-back below average performances for the 22 team. Not good, can he turn it around at Dover? Maybe, I guess he could. But honestly, I might stay away from him until he proves that he can contend for wins again. I always try to give a driver benefit of a doubt. After Kansas, I gave him benefit of a doubt. He laid an egg at Charlotte. Give me a reason, Joey!
24-Chase Elliott: You know, I actually thought that Elliott was going to turn things around in Charlotte. He could have, if he didn't have some shitty luck on lap 19. But now , we have to face the facts about Elliott. He is not going to repeat last season's numbers most likely. I think this was obvious and I thought it was a tall task for him to repeat last season's numbers. Right now, he is not on pace to score 17 Top 10 finishes and 10 Top 5 finishes. In fact, he haven't finished in the top 5 or led a lap since Martinsville. That was the 6th race of the season in early April. The first week of April to be exact. That's 2 months ago, folks! He had impressive runs here last season, but he does not have much going for him right now. He need to finish a race on the lead lap, before I trust him again.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt had a pretty strong race at Charlotte and in my opinion was his best race of the year, yes, even better than his Daytona 500 performance. He ran top 10 (and top 5 in latter parts) for most of the race. What can he do at Dover? It will be interesting to find out that is for sure! I say interesting because he does not have great track record here lately. Not terrible though, but not really great, either. In his past 16 races here, he has compiled just 5 Top 10 finishes. With that said, all 5 of those top 10 finishes ended in the top 5, too. In those 16 races, he has only finished 7 of those races in the top 15. That's less than half of the time, if you are not counting at home. His numbers more recently should be even more concerning though. In his past 6 races here, he has finished 17th or worse in 4 of 6 races. In case you were wondering, yes, all 6 races were with the 41 car. He has some momentum on his side and has ran well lately, but his track record is very questionable.
42-Kyle Larson: It took Kyle Larson to the 12th race of the season, but he finally finished off the lead lap and outside of the top 20. There's no shame in that, if you are Kyle Larson. He is fast week in and week out, he will be fine this weekend. Larson had the car to beat here in the spring race and probably would had won, if he was a little more aggressive with Kenseth. He had some terrible luck in the fall race and got eliminated from the chase, ultimately. Outside of finishing 25th in last fall's race, he haven't finished worse than 11th place. In his 5 career starts at Dover, he had finishes of 11th or better. In those 5 races, his only non-top 10 finish was 11th in his first career Dover start. After that, he had 4 straight Top 10 finishes. Even better? He has finishes of 2nd and 3rd in his past two spring Dover races.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson had a car capable of winning at Charlotte, but in the end it was not in the cards. Johnson has now back-to-back finishes outside of the top 15 (excluding the All-star race). But when the series comes to Dover, the driver of the No.48 car is the man everyone is talking about. Johnson is a 10-time winner at this racetrack and for a long time been considered the master of this place. In just his past 7 races, he has posted 3 wins. His last win came back in May 2015. Since 2012, Johnson has won 40% of the races at this track. In that same 10-race span, he has posted 60% top 5 rate. I don't think Johnson is a must-have this weekend (like a couple years ago), but he is someone that is very capable of causing a lot of damage. Johnson is easily a top 5 driver entering the weekend, and probably better than that, too. On pure stats alone, Johnson is by far the best fantasy option.
77-Erik Jones: Jones had a very strong race at Charlotte, even after getting damage on that lap 19 incident. Even after slow pit stops on pit road. The 77 car would not go away and evnetually finished in the top 10. Jones is very talented and is only getting better as the season progressing. I still believe he can find victory lane. Can he do it this weekend? Probably not. Dover can be a tough track for a young driver with no experience (at the cup level) at it. With how fast the 77 (and 78) team is this season, he should have no issues running in the top 10. The question is can he avoid any issues? I think that will determines how well he finishes, honestly.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr dominated Charlotte but could win the race in the end. He will now turn his attention back to Dover and try to get to victory lane. Dover is a great track for Truex Jr. He scored his first career win here and been a very solid driver here. He is very underrated here and may not get the respect he deserves. I am fine with that though. In the past two seasons, Truex Jr has the 3rd-best average finish (6.5), 2nd-best average start (5.0) and best-driver rating (120.1). He's dominated this track here last fall. He led 187 laps on his way to victory lane. Since joining the 78 team, he have finished 11th or better in every single race at Dover. Over the past two seasons, he had led 131 laps or more in half (2) of the races at Dover.
88-Dale Jr: Last week, I said the odds of Dale Jr getting at top 10 was slim in my preview (when looking at his momentum and Charlotte's numbers.) He overcame the odds and scored his second top 10 finish of the 2017 season. He will try to take that and build on it at Dover! His numbers at Dover are pretty good lately. In his past 9 races at this place, he has posted 6 Top 11 finishes. Bad news is that Dale Jr haven't finished better than 9th place in his past 4 spring Dover races though. Overall, I wouldn't say that Dale Jr is terrible option this weekend at Dover. I probably won't be considering him on my fantasy radar, but he could be a nice top 10 to top 15 finisher when it all said and done. Honestly, I am still waiting for Dale Jr to put together some nice runs, before I give him some credit.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
