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1-JMac: Tough outing for JMac at Daytona. He wasn't terrible, but his car has looked better at end of races though. Kentucky is a great track for him recently, if you take out a bad finish in 2014 here. In his previous races here (excluding 37th in 2014), he has compiled 7.6 average finish with a pair of top 7 finishes. He's finished 7th in this race in 2016. In 2013, he finished a carer-high 2nd place and had a career-high 104.1 driver rating. What stands out the most? The fact that he finished 7th last year and competition. During a time period where the CGR cars were still figuring it out. If he can perform that well last year, then imagine what he is capable of this weekend? JMac has ran extremely well this year on the 1.5 mile tracks. He has finished 12th or better in five 1.5 mile races this season. Four times, he has finished in the top 10. This is not even counting places such as Michigan (the larger 2-mile intermediate track), where he finished 5th. Point being, the #1 car has speed on this type of track. He can contend for a top 10 finish and sometimes maybe more.
2-Brad Keselowski: I had very high hopes for Brad at Daytona and showed how strong he was in the opening stage of the race. However, he got shuffled to the back and never showed how strong he was again. A big factor in that was because he was involved in the Kyle Busch wreck and then shortly later on wrecked on his own again. He should be able to rebound at Kentucky though. He's great at this track and been elite driver since it been on the cup schedule. Prior to that, he was a standout driver in NXS at Kentucky. In 6 career starts, he has finished 7th or better five times. Yes, 5 of 6 races he has finished in the top 7. Minus the 2013 event,where he finished 33rd. He does not have a driver rating below 118.2 in the other five races. Do you know how ridiculously stupid good that is? It's insane. In his past four races (minus 2013 event), he does not have a driver rating below 124.6. Like I said, just ridiculous. In his past three Kentucky starts, he has started in the top 2 and led at least 62 laps. In his past 5 races (minus 2013 event), he has led at least 68 laps. His numbers on the 1.5 mile tracks are awesome. Excluding finishing 39th at Charlotte, he has finished 6th or better in every race. He finished top 5 at Atlanta (he won), Las Vegas (5th) and Kansas (2nd). Hard to not love Keselowski this weekend!
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon's down season keep on going and I am honestly not sure why he is having such a down year. After a very strong 2016 campaign, many were expecting him to have a breakout season. Sure, he won at Charlotte and that was definitely a positive for him. But outside of that and Martinsville, he does not have a single top 10 finish. In fact, he has only 6 top 15 finishes on the season. While finishing 18th or worse in 10 of 17 races this season. Not good. And his numbers on the intermediate tracks this season aren't great, either. Minus his win at Charlotte, he has looked lost. In the first 4 races on the 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled just one top 20 finish (16th at Kansas). He's finished 25th, 33rd and 32nd in the first three races. His finishes are getting better though. But Kentucky is not a great track for him. In four career starts, he has a career-best finish of 16th (twice) so far. Not good. I am not really that high on him this weekend. He has lost my confidence as a fantasy pick. I will avoid him until he start looking legit again.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick had a tire go down and got hard into the wall. The worst part about that? Junior Nation is angry about it because it was right in front of the 88 car. I wouldn't want to be him. The 4 car has shown a lot of speed lately, so I would expect him to be strong this weekend at Kentucky. He won at Sonoma just a couple weeks ago and will look to get back his winning ways. He has been consistent at Kentucky in his past 5 starts. He has finished 11th or better since the 2012 season. Including three straight top 10 finishes. Last season here, he had the car to beat and led 128 laps on his way to 9th place finish. He was very strong and had his best race by far at Kentucky. In his previous two starts, he had finishes of 8th and 7th, but no laps led. His average driver rating was below 110 in those races. He had 131.3 driver rating in last season's race here. As for this season, Harvick has been good but not great on the 1.5 mile tracks. He's has three poles in five races (on 1.5 mile tracks) so far this season. So that been a huge help at places such as Texas and Charlotte. Where he led good amount of laps. But it doesn't change, he cannot seem to get over the hump. Meaning only being in that 3rd-6th finishing range or 4th-8th or whatever range you want to put him in. Point being, Harvick haven't been a true race contender on this type of track (outside of Atlanta.) He leads laps early on, but then fade when the cream rises to the top. Does he fade a lot? No, but he slowly go backwards as we deeper into races. He's a great point, but I don't view him as the odds on favorite though.
5-Kasey Kahne: Okay I am going to keep it short and sweet with Kasey Kahne. He is a terrible fantasy option to consider. I am sorry, but I don't see how people can consider him week after week. His numbers this season are just bad. In his past 11 races, he has compiled just 2 finishes in the top 15. That shouldn't happen in his equipment. 2 top 15 finishes and one of those finishes were at Talladega. With 4 of his past 6 races ended in 21st or worse. I don't even have to go into his numbers at Kentucky (they are bad, too), because what I just said should draw major red flags. More than red flags. You should be running the other way screaming with your hands covering your head.
11-Denny Hamlin: I thought Hamlin was going to get another top 10 at Daytona and things could had lined up that way, too. But then with 3 to go, he get wrecked. Of all of the wrecks we saw on Saturday night, Hamlin was involved in a single car accident after more than 155 laps were completed. As a fantasy player, it kinda drives you mad. Still, it was a very good showing by Hamlin. This is on top of string of solid finishes for him. Prior to finishing 24th (at Daytona), he had 6 straight top 12 finishes. Including back-to-back 4th place finishes at Michigan and Sonoma. All good things must come to an end, right? He has a chance to restart his streak of good finishes though this weekend. Hard to say what to expect at Ketnucky, in my opinion. He has 4 Top 15 finishes in 6 starts. With two 3rd place finishes in 2012 and 2015. Additional, he has finishes of 35th and 42nd in 2013 and 2014. In last season's race, he was a non-factor and finished 15th. His numbers on the 1.5 mile tracks also have been questionable. He finished 38th and 25th at Atlanta and Texas. While finishing 5th at Charlotte. Additionally, he had finishes of 6th (Vegas) and 23rd (Kansas). So yeah, he is all over the map so far this season. Personally, I would wait and see on Hamlin on the intermediate tracks still. There's some good places coming up to use him.
18-Kyle Busch: We are entering the 18th race of the season and Kyle Busch does not have a win. It not because he haven't been fast. Definitely not that, no driver in the series has had more speed than the 18 over the past two months. Other than probably Martin Truex Jr or just maybe Kyle Larson. Otherwise, the 18 car is the man right now. Week in and week out, the #18 car is contending for wins and he will win very soon. How soon? How about this weekend soon? I think it is a great possibility. Kyle always has loved Kentucky and Kentucky seem to love him right now honestly. In 6 career starts, Kyle has not finished worse 12th and has a career average finish of 5.1. That is tied with Matt Kenseth for best in the series. How good is Kyle here in those 6 starts? He had led over 100 laps three times in six races. All three times, he would end up finishing in the top 2. Last season, he was probably his worst race ever here. He finished 12th and posted a career-low 108.0 driver rating. Prior to that, he had three straight top 5 finishes. Including a pair of top 2 finishes. He is the favorite entering the weekend in my eyes!
19-Daniel Suarez: Suarez is having a great season for such a young driver and seems to be getting better with more experience behind the wheel. I love that because that means we haven't seen his best yet. And quite frankly, I been pretty impressed what he has done over the past couple months. He is not quite Erik Jones, but he wasn't ready for cup at start of the season. His progress has been very solid. He has never made a start here, but based on the season, I would expect another top 15 run from him. I would ranked as a top 20 driver with good top 15 upside. Maybe more, depends how fast he is off the truck. Doesn't hurt that he has two teammates with great track history at Kentucky.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is pretty underrated at Kentucky, far as I am concerned. And honestly, I think people are overlooking him right now. Joe Gibbs Racing haven't gone to victory lane and if your name isn't Kyle Busch, you are getting the cold treatment. At least from a fantasy vantage point. That is not a shot at anyone at Joe Gibbs Racing, but that is the reality right now. Matt, Denny and Daniel are being overlooked because they aren't regulary conending for top 5 finishes. Even if they were, I still think they would get the cold treatment. Simply because JGR haven't won this year. Winning (or at least contending) is everything in Fantasy Nascar and if you don't, then you will be shoved aside. Kenseth just haven't been that good this season. In his past 9 races (back to Richmond), he has only posted 2 top 10 finishes. While finishing five finishes of 20th or worse. Not good. He does have four finishes of 4th, 10th, 11th and 12th. Still, those finishes aren't standing out. This is why Kenseth will be under the radar this week. Not because his record at Kentucky. I would take a shot with him though. At worst, you keep him on your radar and you pass on him.
21-Ryan Blaney: Whenever Ryan Blaney has a good run going, for whatever reason, it always seem to go to hell. Not always, but you get my point. At Daytona, it was Kyle Larson going airborne in front of him. It wasn't the first time, Ryan had a strong ended by bad luck. While Ryan has a lot of potential this weekend with his strong runs on the intermediate tracks this year. The odds for a bad finish seems to be favorable. In his past 10 races this season, Blaney has finished 24th or worse seven times. Yes, seven (7) times in his past 10 races. His three good finishes? 1st, 4th and 9th. So he has been pretty much all or nothing. I will note that great things has happened when he has started in the top 5 this season. So if he qualify well, you shouldn't be shocked if he runs strong. His past two top 5 starts has ended in 1st and 4th. In 3 of last 4 starts from the top 5, he had led in three of those races. While leading 83 and 148 laps at Kansas and Texas. He finished 4th and 12th in those races. He had the car to beat, until a late penalty halt his chances. He is a risk/reward fantasy pick this weekend!
22-Joey Logano: Logano been up and down at Kentucky so far in his cup career. In 6 career starts, he has posted 4 finishes in the top 14. While finishing poorly in his other two starts. In last season's event, he's finished 39th after making an early exit. As far as this season goes, Logano has also been up and down for the most part. Lately, it has been on the down side though. In his past 8 cup races, he has finished 21st or worse six times. He showed life at both Michigan and Sonoma. But honestly, I need more than that to say that he is capable of winning or contending for a top 5 finish again. I need to see more from him. And with his track record here, I am not convinced that he is a sure bet to possibly finish in the top 5. Question is do I think there are more than 5 or even 7 better cars out there right now? I do think so. Joey haven't regained my trust yet. If he can go out there and run well this week and next week, then sure I will say yeah the 22 team is back. Prove me wrong, Joey!
24-Chase Elliott: I been a downer on Chase Elliott this season and I wasn't super high on him in the offseason, either. I predicted a down year for him. So kinda surprised that I been so hard on him. But I have been and it is nothing personally against him. Elliott is a good young driver with a lot of potential. He is starting to put together the finishes again finally, too. Minus his Daytona finish, he has posted four straight top 8 finishes. With top 5 results at Dover and Michigan. So far this season, he has been primarily a top 10 driver, but not really top 5 contender, either. He is kinda in a rock and a hard place. He is good enough to be relevant in Nascar, but at same time, he is not quite ready to win. He's very close though. Sooner or later, he will sneak into victory lane. But I think people are becoming impatient. Like with Kyle Larson (before he broke through), I think that is going to put more pressure on him. It will either motivate him to win or halt his progress. I am sure we will find out pretty quickly on which one.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is having a okay season so far, he does have a win and a few top 10 finishes. But that's about it. That's Newman for you though. He never knock off a lot of great finishes, but not often does he finishes bad. They don't call him, ''Mr. Consistency'' for no reason. It what he does. A typical race for Newman is to run in the top 15 and finish in the top 15. There are races where he finishes in the top 10 or just outside of the top 15. But you get the point. In his past 6 races this season (since Charlotte), he has finished 15th or better in all six races. Including 14th or 15th in his past three races, excluding his 5th place finish at Daytona. In the other three races, he has finishes of 4th, 5th and 9th. He has been good at Kentucky recently, too. In his past 4 races here, he has finished 20th or worse. In two of his past three races here, he has finished 3rd. Problem is? His 3rd place finishes has came every other race. He will be a top 15 contender with upside on Saturday night.
41-Kurt Busch: Trying to figure out Kurt Busch this season is nearly impossible. He have a couple good finishes, followed by a bad finish. Like recently, he has three straight top 12 finishes at Pocono, Michigan and Sonoma. Then, of course, he got wrecked at Daytona and finished 28th place. It been like that all season. Get a few good finishes and then BANG, a bad finishes slaps him. That was Kurt in second half of last season as well. Kentucky is a good track for him overall. In his past 4 races, he has finished 12th or better. Including three top 10 finishes in those four races. He's finished 4th and 10th in his past two starts at this track.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson has had an awesome season so far. The past two races haven't been that great for him (finish wise) though. He has finished 30th and 26th. Prior to that, he had only one finish outside of the top 20 and that was at Charlotte. Kyle Larson, other wise been a top 5 on a consistent basis. That's great for him, but his history is very questionable though. At least at Kentucky Speedway it is. In 3 career starts at Kentucky Speedway, he has finishes of 19th, 35th and 40th. Not good, but like always don't solely go on track history. It is overrated. I prefer to go on seasonal data. And season's data says that Larson will be one o the best drivers on the track. Kyle Larson should be on your fantasy radar this weekend, because good chance he will have a car capable of winning!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson is having another great season, which comes to zero surprise to pretty much everyone. But Kentucky isn't a great track for him. It is a good track for him, but not great. To be fair, our standard for Johnson is pretty high, since he is awesome at a lot of places. In his past three races here, Johnson has been just good. As he has finishes of 32nd, 9th and 10th. His performance in these races has been below his standard. As far as this season, Johnson been great at times and then just good enough. In 5 of his past 6 races, he has finished 10th-17th place. Of course, he did win at Dover. But that remains his only finish better than 10th place. Honestly, I am not really convinced that Johnson is a top 5 driver at the moment. Sure, he has three wins. But he haven't blown anyone away though. Think about it, he haven't dominated any races. Won at Texas, Bristol and Dover, but he didn't have the dominant racecar. And every other race, it been like he just close to the top 5 or top 10 good. He led some laps here and there, but again not dominant. I am willing to bet, he goes out there and finishes in the top 10 again. I am not sold on him being a true race-winning contender though.
77-Erik Jones: Jones is having a great rookie season. Half of the time, he does not get the finishes he should. That is kinda crazy, since he has gotten some awesome finishes as a rookie. I was very high on him in the off-season, so I am hoping he keep up the great work. I think he is only going to get better as we approach the playoffs. As for this weekend, I think he will be very fast and at least flirt with a top 10 or top 12 finish. Like always, keep in mind that he is a young driver and is prong to mistakes. If he can go mistake free, I think he can easily finish in the top 10. These intermediate tracks are his strong suit.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr has been the best driver on this type of track this season and it should be the case again this weekend. He has been awesome on the 1.5 mile tracks and been awesome the past two seasons. This is nothing new and you should already have him on your radar. If not, then you better change that. In his past four 1.5 mile tracks, he has led over 100 laps three times. Yes, three (3) times. How has he ended those races? 1st, 3rd and 1st. If he leads a lot of laps, there is a good chance that he will finish inside the top 3. His record at Kentucky haven't been great though. In his past three races here, he has finished 10th, 17th and 19th with the #78 team. He had finishes of 7th and 8th with the #56 team in 2012 and 2013. He should be good this weekend and likely contend for a race win. I don't put too much into history, when a driver is this fast consistently. Especially on a specific type of racetrack.
88-Dale Jr: Junior Nation did not leave Daytona too happy as their man did not deliver a walk-off win at his favorite track. Instead, he saw his night end pretty early after a tough night. That how it goes sometimes. And Dale Jr not having the best season anyhow. He has struggled to put together any sort of momentum it seems like. Kentucky isn't a terrible track for him, but it not one that I would consider first though. In 4 of his past 5 races, he has finished 13th or better. While posting a pair of top 5 finishes. Like I said it is not a terrible track for him. But his performance this season is very worrisome to me. He haven't ran well on this type of track in 2017. Personally, I would pass on him this weekend and hope that he shows something in the upcoming weeks. Right now, he does not hold much fantasy value.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
