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1-JMac: Jamie is having a very good season, but he is declining as we enter second half of the season a little. Early on, he was very consistent with top 10 and top 12 finishes. Now, he is starting to go outside of that range more. In his past 9 races this season, Jamie has only three single digit finishes. While three of his last four finishes ended in 14th or worse. I think some of it has to do with bad luck, but I also it is unavoidable to see a decline in production for a driver like Jamie. Even with the improvement of CGR, he isn't good enough of a driver to be a consistent top 5 or top 7 threat. Earlier this season, he finished 37th at Pocono. But he was better than that though. If you are looking for a comparable track then look at Indy. He was good last week, I would say somewhere between 5th-8th for the race. Strong early, but his car went away and was somewhere in back-half of the top 10. If he didn't get involved in that wreck late, I think he would had finished in the top 10. I am thinking along the similar lines for Pocono, too.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski almost won last weekend at Indy and will look to keep the momentum. Honestly, this top 5 finish was out of nowhere. His luck over the past couple months has been complete shit. So for him to survive that wreck feast, it was unexpected. In his previous 8 races (before Indy), he had only 3 top 10 finishes overall. He is starting to put together something though. With finishes of 9th and 2nd over his past two races this season. If he can finish in the top 10 again this weekend, he will make it three top 10 finishes. His Pocono record is also pretty solid. In his past four races at Pocono, Keselowski has finished 5th or better. Including 5th place finish this past June. I wouldn't say that Keselowski has a ton of fantasy value right now, but he is someone that I have my eye on this week. If he shows me something in practice, then I will give him some consideration. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 guy overall.
3-Austin Dillon: RCR showed a little more speed this past weekend at Indy, but Dillon still struggled overall. He wasn't ever anything beyond 15th place driver. For the most part, Dillon haven't really shown much of anything other than he is only a top 20 driver this season. Week in and week out, Dillon is running just outside of the top 15. That's not good enough, in my opinion. In 20 races, he has only three top 15 finishes. He has been good at Pocono in recent races overall. In his past 6 races here, he has compiled 4 Top 15 finishes. Including 3 Top 13 finishes in his past four races here at Pocono. All three top 13 finishes ended in 13th place. He finished 13th in this past June was running near the top 15, before getting in that wreck at the end of Indy. I would say that he is on the boarder line of being a top 15 driver. But season trends says he is in the 16th-21st place range though. I don't hate Dillon by any means, as he could be a solid under the radar pick, but I will hold back until now.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is having a very solid season, but he is not getting enough respect for it. Over the past couple months, he is one of the most consistent drivers in the series. He may not lead the most laps (or any laps sometimes), but he is finishing in the top 5 or top 10 every week. That's huge to me as a fantasy pick. He may not be flashy, but it not always about that. Consistency is the baseline to fantasy success. Over the past 10 races this season, he has compiled 8 Top 10 finishes. Including 6 top 6 finishes, too. He was strong in the June's race at Pocono, too. He's finished 2nd. In his past 6 races at Pocono, he has 10.1 average finish. In those six races, Harvick has 4 Top 4 finishes. Also in those six races, he is batting 50% in the top 2. As he's finished 2nd place in three of those six races. I have very high hopes for Kevin this weekend overall. His strong showings already at Pocono (in June) and Indy (last week) give me faith that he keep it going on the large flats.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne finally broke through last weekend at Indy and went back to victory lane for the first time since Atlanta 2013. I was kinda surprised by this honestly. His finishes leading up to his Indy win were completely laughable. And with how much shit luck he had has this season, I would had thought he would find a way to be involved in a wreck. He didn't though. Props ot him on that. It still doesn't change my opinion or outlook on him though. He is still a inconsistent driver that I don't really trust. It also doesn't change that Kahne only had two top 15 finish since Talladega. Yes, two top 15 finish, NOT including last week win. So three top 15 finishes overall in his past 11 races. Here's his finishes since Charlotte: 35th (Charlotte), 17th, 35th, 21st, 24th, 18th, 38th, 28th and 1st (Indy). That's a 9-race span for those of you keeping track. Do you realize how difficult that is to accomplish? 1 finish better than 17th. I am sorry, but I am not behind him like some people will be. His record at Pocono isn't anything to get excited about, either. In his past 7 races, he has finished 15th or worse. In his past 5 races at Pocono, Kasey has compiled 22.4 average finish.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin was on a roll before heading to Indy. He had 4 Top 5 finishes in his past 5 races, before finishing 19th last weekend. He was running very well, before his tire went down and he hit the wall on the final lap of the race. Indy was a wacky race though. So let's pretend it didn't happen and move onto Pocono this weekend. He's pretty good at Pocono. In his past 7 races, he's finished 12th or better at this racetrack. As far as momentum goes, there's not many drivers in the series that has more than Denny Hamlin. The #11 car is fast on a weekly basis lately. I would put him behind only the 78, 42 and 18 in terms of speed over the past month. Hamlin has found a lot of success at this track over the years and have four wins to his name in just 23 career starts. He finished 12th earlier this season here, but I think he is running much better right now. He should be on your short-list of drivers to have a legit shot to contend for the win on Sunday's afternoon.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy just doesn't have any luck this season and Sunday was proof of that. He had a dominant racecar at one of his best tracks. And led a race-high 87 laps (the most laps for the race) and then he get involved in a wreck. After end of the second stage, I was thinking to myself, ''There no way he can lose to race, unless he get involved in a wreck''. Couple minutes later, it happens. He will try to rebound at Pocono. He had another dominant racecar at Pocono earlier this season. He led the most laps and should had won, but faded on older tires. I felt like he gave that win away, too. He didn't pit and that ended up costing him the win. He was in a tough spot though. If he pitted, the cars behind him wouldn't pitted and he would had been screwed. But I do think, he may had a better shot at the win that way. Either way, the odds were heavily out of his favor. I think the biggest thing he has going for him right now is how strong he has been on the large flat. He has dominated both large flat races this season and started on the pole both times. While leading over 50% of the laps combined in those races.
19-Daniel Suarez: Suarez is having a great rookie season, he isn't running as well as Erik Jones. However, he is way more consistent though. And it may just be because he is straight up lucky compared to Erik Jones. For whatever reason, Daniel always seem to avoid the wrecks near him. That's great for him because is gaining confidence and becoming a better racecar driver. That's huge for him, because he is making progress and getting good finishes. A rookie driver like Daniel needs that. He finished 15th at Pocono earlier this season and compiled 77.0 driver rating. I like him overall and think he will be better than he was back in June. I think he near a top 15 caliber driver entering the weekend with obvious upside like usual.
20-Matt Kenseth: There was a point during the Indy race, I thought Matt Kenseth was going to win that race. After the yellow came out, I thought Kenseth was the one in the driver seat. But he wasn't and he didn't win last weekend at Indy. He was very strong for the event and was a consistent top 10 threat and seemed to get better as the race went on. He ended up finishing 5th in that race. Pocono is another great racetrack for him, too. In his past 5 races, he has compiled 4 top 10 finishes. In those four races, he has compiled 3 finishes of 7th or better. He finished 10th back in June. He wasn't anything special in that race though. However, I think JGR as a whole are running much better right now than they were then. He probably need a win to make the the playoffs (for sure) at this point.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is so unpredictable, from week to week, you don't know if he will finish in the top 5 or outside of the top 15. This guy really does have some bad luck and I am not convinced that it will end any time soon. In his past 13 races (dating back to April), Blaney has finished 19th or worse nine (9) times. Yes, nine times. That's a lot! Weather it is a wreck, bad pit stops or mechanical issues, he usually find a way to have a bad finish. However, he did win back in June at Pocono and he has a career 7.3 average finish in three starts at this track. Also, he is fast week in and week out in the #21 car. So it is not like he doesn't have huge potential. This raceteam is consistently one of the quickest cars every single weekend. And it doesn't really seem to matter what track it is, either. If you believe he will repeat his success from June, then take a shot with him. He's probably worth the risk, with the huge upside.
22-Joey Logano: Logano has had a up and down season, but he is starting to put together some decent runs. In his past 6 races, he has compiled 4 finishes of 12th or better. Including 3 top 8 finishes among those 4 top 12 finishes. So yeah, he is getting better finishes than he was. I still think he is off overall, but he is getting closer to what we expected. Problem is? He won't be able to point his way into the chase, especially not after Kahne won last week. Even without Kahne winning, I highly doubt it would had helped much. Either way, Logano will have to win between now and Richmond. Or he will not make the chase, which is something I didn't see coming at all. Can he win at Pocono? Sure, but I wouldn't bet on it though. His numbers at Pocono aren't that good overall lately. In his past four races here, he has compiled 3 finishes of 20th or worse. In his past 7 races here, he has compiled 4 finishes of 20th or worse. I will need to see a strong showing during practice for me to have him on my fantasy radar.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott was having a strong stench of races during the past month or so until this past weekend at Indy. The HMS engines seemed to be suspected, after two of them blew up in the race. That was Elliott's first blown engine during his career with HMS. So it not likely a worry heading to Pocono. It was a rare occurrence for the young HMS driver. Pocono is a good track for Elliott overall. In his first career start at this track, he led 51 laps and nearly won at this track. In his second career start, he finished 33rd and ended 4 laps down. He got involved in a wreck with Joey Logano, while running well inside the top 10. In his third career start (back in June), he's finished 8th and posted a driver rating over 100. This all after starting all way back in 25th for the race. I think he's a top 10 fantasy pick entering the weekend and I will be keeping my eye on him during practice on Saturday.
41-Kurt Busch: Trying to figure out Kurt Busch on any given week is becoming a personal challenge for me and it's one that it becoming annoying! I swear this guy is not readable. He can look great in practice and finished in the top 5. He can look junk in practice and junk in the race. He can look junk in practice and great in the race. And he can look great in practice and junk in the race. He's a challenge. Of course, it does not help he always seem to find a wreck on a weekly basis. I don't know what to say about him. Pocono is a great track for him though. If there's a place for him to get a top 5 finish between now and Richmond, then it is here. He was very fast back in June all weekend and finished in the top 5. No surprise as this is one of his top three tracks (in my opinion) on the schedule. In his past 9 races at Pocono, Kurt has compiled 6 Top 7 finishes. While posting three straight top 10 finishes at this track overall.
42-Kyle Larson: After back-to-back weeks of starting in the back and finishing 2nd, Larson finally had a off-day at Indy. He's started 25th and finished 28th at Indy. He wasn't anything specail and probably just good enough for a top 10 finish. It was probably only one of the few times this season that I could say that Larson truly struggled. Larson even admitted it in his interview after his qualifying run. He wasn't anything super special earlier this season at Pocono, but he was top 5 or so good. He had 109.9 driver rating and led 9 laps. Also he has a good track record here overall. In 7 career starts, he has 8.6 career average finish with 7 finishes of 12th or better. In his past 5 races at this track, Larson has compiled 3 Top 8 finishes. Hard to bet against him regardless, he is a top 5 driver right now and I don't think it will change at one of his best tracks.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson nearly took the lead while blowing up at Indianapolis this past weekend and I just in disbelief. Of course, he wrecked as he blew up and pretty much ended his day. Still, it was a good effort by the 48. However, it doesn't change that he only had 3 top 5 finishes on the season and they all were wins. When you dig into his numbers, it is kinda shocking overall. Over his past 10 races this season, Johnson only has 1 top 10 finish and 5 top 15 finishes. Those 5 top 15 finishes are scary. It means, he's only finished 50% of the time in the top 15. His record at Pocono isn't anything great lately, either. In his past 6 races at Pocono, Johnson has produced 4 finishes of 16th or worse. Including 3 finishes of 35th or worse in that span. From June 2011 to June 2014 (7 races), he had 5 Top 6 finishes. Including 4 finishes of top 4 finishes. So prior to this bad stench of races, he had a strong span.
77-Erik Jones: Erik Jones is coming off back-to-back races of having a bad finish, he will look to rebound at Pocono. The site of his best career finish (earlier this season), where he's finished 3rd and led a career-high 20 laps with a career-high in overall performance as well. In short, he had best race of his career. I love Erik Jones this weekend and if he can avoid any issues, then he will be a top 10 driver easily. Last week at Indy, he was a top 10 driver and at times he was a top 5 driver (or close to it) in the middle stages of the race. I think the biggest problem with Jones right now is having bad luck. If he can get rid of that, then he should be fine this weekend.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Believe it or not, Truex Jr has been complete boom or bust in terms of final finishing position over his past 5 races. He wrecked out (or had mechanical issues) at Sonoma, Daytona and Indy. He had finishes of 1st or 3rd at New Hampshire and Kentucky. So yeah, like I said he has been one extreme or another basically. Pocono is a great track for him overall. He is a former winner here. I find it funny that he has four finishes of 19th or worse over his past six races. They are explainable finishes though. He won back in June 2015 and led 97 laps. In August 2015, he was top 5 good but ran out of fuel at end of the race. In June 2016, he was got damaged on pit road and he was never was the same. Also, I remember him having multiple speeding penalties in that race. In August 2016, he started from the pole and looked to have a dominant racecar. It was the same car, he dominated with at the 600 and Kansas earlier that season. But then, after a early race cuation, he had to restart behind a couple cars. Paul Menard got loose and wrecked in front of the 78 car. Truex Jr didn't got to garage, but lost a few laps. Later in the race, he wrecked again (probably because of the previous damage) and pretty much ended his day. He's finished 6th this season at Pocono. Truex Jr should have one of the fastest cars again this weekend!
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr had another tough race at Indy and it is becoming clearer by the week that he will not make the playoffs this season. Sure, there are some races left before the cut-off, but unless something crazy happens, I don't see it happening honestly. I would say that Pocono is his best shot at getting back to victory lane one final time though. This is a great racetrack for Dale Jr and has been for quite some time. In his past 8 races at this track, he has compiled 6 Top 5 finishes. He's finished 38th earlier this season here, after his engine left go during the race. It is hard to judge him off earlier this season, since he did have a sour engine. But I still don't think he is worth a shot with. He just don't offer us much in terms of final finishing position. He may offer some fantasy value, in certain formats, depending on your game's rules. But in general, it is hard to defend him with the season he is having right now.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
