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1-JMac: JMac has NOT ran well at Pocono lately and has lack speed most of the season, minus at Charlotte. Over his last 4 races at Pocono, he has compiled 25.0 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 73.6 driver rating. Those are not very good numbers, in fact they are bad for a driver like Jamie. Especially for someone who has been pretty good at finishing in the top 15 over the last couple seasons. In his last 5 races at Pocono, he has not finished better than 15th. From June 2014 to August 2015, he had 3 straight top 10 finishes though. However, it seems like his numbers has gotten worse over the last four seasons. From being a top 10 finisher to finishing in the high-20s/low-30s in 2017.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is a stud here at Pocono and he will be tough to beat. In his last four races here, he has compiled the best-average finish of 3.8, 5th-best average running position of 9.8 and 3rd-best driver rating of 104.4. Overall, he haven't been the best performer. However, he has gotten the finishes when it has counted. In his last four races here, he haven't finished outside of the top 5. In 7 of his last 9 races at Pocono, he has finished in the top 6. Keselowski is well oiled machine at this place. In my opinion, he has to be in the conversation as one of the favorites!
3-Austin Dillon: Aside from the Daytona 500, Austin Dillon haven't done much of anything so far this season. I don't think he is one of those drivers can contend for top 10 finishes regularly. If he does, something usually has to go wrong for others. That is no disrespect to Austin. That is more of a shot at RCR's equipment. Couple seasons ago, when RCR had faster cars, we saw what he could do in something decent. However, over last few seasons it seems like RCR has taken a step back. No shocker that drivers has, too. He haven't been bad at Pocono. Early in his career, it was considered a strong track for him. I think it still is. In 6 of 8 career races at Pocono, he has finished 19th or better. In 3 of his last 5 races overall, he has finished 13th. No finishes better than 13th. In fact, 13th is his career-best finish at Pocono. His only super poor finish at Pocono was 2016, when he wrecked out.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick should be considered the man to beat entering the week! He has been the best driver here since joining SHR, in my opinion. Even if the results don't always show it. Over his last 4 races here, he has compiled 4.3 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 114.0 driver rating. His average finish ranked 2nd, while both his average running position and driver rating ranked as best in the series. He has been amazing at Pocono since joining SHR! In June 2014, he was just incredible. He was in the top 3 early in the race after a pit stop. However, he had to pit for a loose wheel. He ended up being multiple laps down before halfway point. He got both of his laps back and then charged into the top 15 in the last handful of laps. He finished 2nd in August 2014 and 2nd in June 2015. In August 2015, he blew an engine. In 2016, he finished 9th and 4th. Then last season, he had pair of 2nd place finishes. Overall, he has finished 7 of the last 10 races in the top 10 at Pocono!
9-Chase Elliott: Elliott has been great here in his career, but HMS has struggled this season. I think that will hurt his chance overall to get to victory lane. He has posted 3 top 10 finishes in 4 career starts so far. His best race remains in 2016 during his debut at Pocono. In that event, he finished 4th and led 51 laps. He had the car to beat, but he lost the race on a restart though. Last season, he wasn't too bad at all. He had finishes of 8th and 10th. He was top 10 driver in both races, but that's about it. Elliott will be a pretty good option to finish in the top 10, but it is suspect if he can challenge for a top 5. Overall logic say the answer is no though.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin use to be very good at Pocono, but he has been going backwards in recent seasons. Still not terrible,, but not where he use to be though. In his first 9 races at Pocono, he won 4 times. In his last 9 races, he has posted just two top 5 finishes. While 6 of his last 9 races here has ended in the top 10. In his last 4 races at Pocono, he has compiled 9.3 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 94.1 driver rating. Hamlin should be considered a top 10 threat, but I think the 11 team have some work to do before being back to a top 5 contender. I mean that in general. Right now, I don't think this raceteam is good enough to run top 5 consistent. It might happen later in the season (like in recent seasons), but for now he is just good enough to run top 10!
12-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is having a very good season, one even better than last season when he won here at Pocono. This will mark a year since his last cup win. He finished 11th and 10th in his first two career races in 2016. Then he won here last June, while finishing 30th in the August's race. In last June's race, he was not bad at all. But he wasn't anything special either though. He compiled 11.0 average running position, 105.4 driver rating and completed 64% of the race in the top 15. He wouldn't had won, if he didn't have those fresh tires. That was the obvious difference maker for him and the 21 team here in 2017. I think it will be difficult for him to go back to victory lane, but he certainly will challenge for a strong finish though.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy has been great here at Pocono is recent seasons and finally went to victory lane here in last August. In last June's race, he was dominant and should had won. He led 100 of 160 laps and had the field pretty much covered. Late caution came out and he was a sitting duck. He stood out and was toast. Kyle would drop down the board and eventually finish 9th. He came back in the August's race with revenge on his mind. He would lead 74 laps on his way to his first career victory at Pocono! Overall, he has led in 5 straight Poocno races and also should had won back in August 2015, too. He was leading the race when he ran out of fuel. He wasn't dominant, but he was in a good position late. However, he could not stench out fuel enough. He finished 21st. If you want to go to victory lane, I think the No.18 car will be someone you will have to beat!
19-Daniel Suarez: Suarez is having a fine season in year number 2, but I don't think he has been good as I has been expecting though. Still, he has gotten better in recent weeks. It mean nothing, but he has swept the top 10 on flat tracks so far this season. With finishing 10th and 8th at Phoenix and Richmond. Like I said, it is meaningless since they are shorter flats tracks. While, Pocono is a larger flat track. Still, I thought that was interesting to note though. In two career starts at Pocono, he has compiled 11.0 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 85.9 driver rating. He was strong in last July's race, where he finished 7th though. He was average in the first race, but he came back strong in the second's race though. I don't think enough people has given him enough credit overall. I think he certainly will be a low-teen driver with enough upside to grab a top 10 finish this weekend!
20-Erik Jones: Erik Jones is having a solid season so far, but just need to have things go his way! And now, he goes to a track that he was great at last season. In last season's races, he compiled 5.5 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 106.5 driver rating. He wasn't a standout at either Pocono races, but he was very consistent in both races. He made no mistakes and came away with quality finishes in both events. I love Erik Jones this weekend. He is really coming into his own as a cup driver and I think he will win a race very soon! Maybe this weekend at Pocono?
22-Joey Logano: Joey Logano is a very underrated driver here at Pocono. He has had a lot of bad luck over the years. In June 2014, he finished 40th. He grab the lead in the race and then he wrecked into Morgan Shepard. Morgan misjudged what line Joey was gonna use and they crashed into each other. Morgan was obviously a lap down car already, but it just one of those racing type things. In August 2014 and June 2015, he had a pair of top 5 finishes. In August 2015, he had a dominant car but he ran out of fuel and finished 20th. In June 2016, he finished 5th. From August 2016 and both races last season, he had 3 straight finishes of 23rd or worse. He is all over the place, but Joey is a top contender when things go right for him. I think he is due for bounce back race here!
31-Ryan Newman: Newman and Pocono just go together. I don't know why, but he always run well here at Pocono. He is nothing special, but this man is damn consistent. I think 2015 was the lone season where he wasn't a top 15 finisher. In finished 23rd and 39th in 2015. But outside of that? His last finish worse than 15th was 2007. Last time he finished worse than 18th at Pocono? June 2005. So 23 of his last 25 races at Pocono has ended in 18th or better. How has he made recently? In his last 4 races here, he has compiled 13.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 81.1 driver rating. He has been a bit more inconsistent with less upside in recent seasons. So I am expecting a finish between 12th-16th most likely out of him this weekend. I would be shocked, if it was outside of that range. Along as Newman does not pull a 2015, I think we are in good shape!
41-Kurt Busch: I think Kurt Busch get overshadow by teammate Kevin Harvick, but in reality he is having a damn fine season overall. And Pocono is one of his very best racetracks. He has always ran well here and that haven't much over the years. In his last 10 races here, he has compiled 6 finishes of 7th or better. In his last 16 races, he has finished 13 races in 13th or better. He has only three finishes outside of the top 15. Only one those three finishes were with the #41 team. In that event, he led 13 laps with 93.5 driver rating, but finished 37th. In his last four races at Pocono, he has compiled 7.0 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 98.3 driver rating. If I had to blindly pick 5 tracks to use Kurt on before the season, I would had picked Pocono as one those five races. He is that damn good here!
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson has struggled at times this season, but for the most part he is having a pretty solid season. Lately, the 42 team has taken it to another gear. At Kansas, he could had won. But had bad luck strike. Then at Charlotte, it was really everyone playing for 2nd. I felt like Kyle Larson had top 3 car, but he was never the same after losing track position. That wreck also could had had something to do with it, too. But Pocono is one of his better tracks so far in his young career. Over his last 4 races here, he has compiled 14.3 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 94.4 driver rating. Pretty good numbers considering that he also finished 33rd in one of those races. That was in last July's race, where he finished 37th. In last June's race, he ended up finishing 7th. He led 9 laps in that event. In August 2016, he had a top 3 car and probably would had won. But the fog ended any chance for that happening. Instead, it was Chris Buescher finding himself in victory lane. In 7 of his 8 career starts at Pocono, Larson has finished in the top 12. I think he's a pretty good bet to finish there once again!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson use to be a stud here at Poocno, but that was then and this is now! I think many people mistake when considering Jimmie is they think he is still a legit race winning contender. He is not at the moment and that is the truth. I think HMS as whole is getting closer and closer though. And his luck at Pocono over the past two seasons has sucked big time. In 3 of his last 4 races at Pocono, he has finished outside of the top 30. His lone good finish is 16th and that's not very good either. Back in 2015, he had finishes of 6th and 3rd at this track. He isn't that driver anymore though. You can expect him to contend somewhere in the teens and maybe steal a top 10 finish. To me, that is his upside right now!
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr is a great driver here at Pocono! In 2017, he compiled 4.5 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 110.6 driver rating. However, in 2016 he did not enjoy that same amount of success. In June 2016, he had a sucky day. He finished 19th, but he like 3 loose wheels. On top of getting damage early in the race on pit road. How bad was his luck that day? The 78 gambled and took two tires on a pit stop. They got him out P1 on that pit stop, but he had a loose wheel. And had to pit almost immediately after that. In August 2016, i think he would had dominated honestly. He was using the same car he dominated at Kansas and Charlotte, earlier that season. After early pit stops, he had to restart 4th, after a slow stop. Well the driver in front of him (Menard) wrecked and he got involved. Truex Jr only went a lap down from the damage, which I still find amazing. However, little later in the race, he went up pancaking the wall. Not once, but twice. I heavily believe that the damage to his car was cause of that. Truex Jr should be viewed as one of the favorites this weekend!
88-Alex Bowman: I think Bowman's development has been slowed down by HMS equipment right now. I think that can be said about him and Byron both. At Pocono, I think he will be alright. But honestly, I would be shocked to see anything better than low to middle-teens out of him. Maybe low-teens, if everything goes right for him. But overall, there isn't a lot to expect out of the 88 car. Couple years ago, when Dale was in it, I think a lot more could be expected out of him. And I am talking about prime Dale. Not washed up running 20th place Dale, either. When he was the most consistent driver in the series. As for Alex Bowman, I think he would be safer using in the 2nd race at Pocono honestly.
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
