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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is the man to beat, in my opinion. He has displayed a lot of strong long run speed and that will be the difference in Sunday's race. Not only that, but he has been the man to beat on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. He was in the top 3 in the first session on the best-ten lap average chart and he topped the best-ten lap average in final practice! He has consistently been the driver to beat on the 1.5 mile tracks and his numbers are just straight up impressive. Aside from the Charlotte's race, he haven't finished worse than 2nd on a 1.5 mile track this season. He won at Atlanta, Kansas and Las Vegas this season. Even with him starting deeper in the field than usual, he is still the favorite in my eyes!
2. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch is the 2nd-best driver in the series on the 1.5 mile tracks and he probably has a top 3 car entering Sunday's race. Rowdy has work to do from starting 15th. But I also believe that Rowdy has proven often this season that he can overcome just about anything. This is a great track for Kyle, too. In his last 5 races at Chicago, he has led at least 46 laps and has posted a driver rating above 110 in four of those races. For those who aren't familiar with driver ratings, anything over 110 is damn good. Your average driver rating for a good race is probably somewhere in the high 90s. He has finishes of 15th and 8th in his last two races here, but clearly he has been much better than that. You can pass here, so I am not worried about where he is starting. He's a superstar for a reason!
3.Brad Keselowski - Like his Penske teammates, Brad has a fast car. I
don't think he will be quite as good as the ''big three'', but we know
these Penske Fords have some speed in their cars. That has been the case
all season long. I think at times, they had faded more than others. The
1.5 mile tracks are when they had displayed their strength more often
than not. I think that will be the case once again on Sunday. Keselowski
should be considered as a top 10 driver with legit top 5 upside. With a
driver like Brad Keselowski and CC like Paul Wolf, there is always a
chance. Keep an eye on No.2 car this weekend!
4. Joey Logano - Like he has been all season long, Joey is just a consistent force. Week in and week out, he get the results. Maybe that is just the kind of drivers that he is. Regardless, a lot of fast Ford drivers on Saturday. All of the Penske Fords seem to be pretty good and I probably trust Logano the most out of the three. Simply because he has been the most reliable one this season. I believe we are gonna see a lot of Fords in the top 5 and top 10 on Sunday. And Joey is one of the guys that is a strong candidate to be in the top 5. I love what this 22 team has done this weekend and this season!
5. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr haven't been terrible this weekend, but I
believe a lot of people were expecting him to be showing more speed. His
team says they aren't worried about it and knows what he needs in the
car (in terms of being comfortable.) They know him better than we do, so
I will take Cole Pern's word for it and trust him. He wasn't super high
on the average charts in either practice on Saturday. So maybe, what he
said was true. You would to think so with him winning the last two
races here and being pretty good on intermediate tracks this season. I
really don't know, but I think he will be in the top 5 in the end
though. I just cannot convince myself that Truex Jr won't find his way
to the front. He's too good not to, in my opinion.
6. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has been really coming on of late and this is another type of track that I would expect him to be strong on. He has looked very good so far this weekend, in my opinion. Nothing like his teammate, but he is another Ford who is showing at least top 10 speed. I think Bowyer is one of those drivers with the most upside who I have ranked outside of the top 3 or 4. He is the guy that I would expect to be able to do some serious damage, if they get his car just right. I think my biggest suprise this season about Clint is that he only has 2 top 10 finishes on 1.5 mile tracks. I expected to be better than that. Just 2 top 10 finishes in 5 races. And one of those finishes were 9th. He has ran much better than that in most of those races. Is this the weekend that he breaks out on one of these cookie cutters? It just might be.
7. Kyle Larson - Larson at times this season has shown real potential to
go to victory lane, but he also has proven that he has work to do at
other times. This weekend, so far, I think he is pretty good. Good
enough to flirt and contend for a top 5, but not good enough to win.
That is just my opinion though. He might go out there and win this damn
thing. We will see though. He was 3rd on best-ten lap average in final
practice. On 1.5 mile tracks this season (minus Texas), he haven't
finished worse than 9th. In his last two 1.5 mile tracks, he has
finished 4th and 7th. He led 102 laps on his way to 4th place finish at
Kansas. That was in my opinion his 2nd-best race of the season.
8. Chase Elliott - I know a lot of people were impressed that the HMS cars were all near top of the board in the first session on the single fastest lap chart. Which was cool and all, but none of them stood the test of time (on the best-ten lap average) and I think Final practice proved that further. I think we will see them all in the top 15 on Sunday, but I think it will be challenging for any of them to legit contend for a top 5 finish. Elliott is probably the best of the four of them, in my opinion. He should be a top 10 driver in the race!
9. Ryan Blaney - Blaney will most likely be better than this, but he is also has had a lot of bad luck lately. Like several other Fords, he is pretty good. He topped the best-ten lap average in first practice and the single-fastest lap. In the final practice session, he was not quite as good. Still he had the 9th-best ten lap average in that session. I feel like this is easily one of Blaney's best type of tracks. He had finishes of 5th, 12th and 5th in his first three races on 1.5 mile tracks to start the year. In his last two, he had finished 36th and 37th. I think he is due for another top 10. Just terrible luck in his last two races on this type of track. I think Blaney will finish somewhere 6th-9th on Sunday. And as always he has huge upside, too.
10. Kurt Busch - There were a lot of drivers who I were considering for this spot. Such as Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, Denny Hamlin and Aric Almirola. But I am going with Kurt Busch. He is coming off a strong top 10 effort at Sonoma and he has ran consistently this season. Especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. In 4 of 5 races, he has finished 7th or 8th. Including in his last three 1.5 mile tracks, dating back to Texas. He was pretty low on the best-ten lap average in final practice, but he has proven to me this season what he is. And that is a top 10 driver basically every week. There has been races, where he has really struggled. But I think he will be fine on Sunday. I have a feeling he will most likely finish around 8th place. That seem to be where he runs and finishes more often not this season.
Just missed -
Denny Hamlin
Paul Menard
Erik Jones
Aric Almirola
Jimmie Johnson
****All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
