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Fantasy Nascar Update -
1. Joey Logano- Logano has a really strong car this weekend. He qualified well inside the top 5 and displayed impressive fall-off in practice. He's not great on the short run, but the #22 car seems to be stout after 10 to 15 laps. His lap times just didn't fall off like almost everybody else's did. He was 2nd in the best-20 lap average and ranked best in the 30-best lap average chart. He also ran the most laps in Saturday's lone practice session! He was on the track for nearly 40 straight laps at the end.
2. Kevin Harvick- I am not in love with the #4 car this weekend, but I really like him! I think on the long runs, he will be one of the drivers to beat. He has been consistent this season, just not good enough to win races. I dont really think there's a clear favorite, but the #4 car is a very safe pick, overall. I say his ceiling is somewhere in the top 3 and his floor probably about 7th or 8th or so. I think that's fair!
3. Martin Truex Jr- I haven't been on the Truex Jr's bandwagon much this season, but there's plenty to like about him here at Dover. He scored his first cup win here and was very strong the last few seasons at Dover. This weekend, he could had qualified better. But he seem to have good speed, even if he started to fall off more than I liked that he did. He's in top equipment, so that's another thing I like with these insane speeds here at Dover.
4. Kyle Busch- Kyle has finished in the top 10 in every race this season, but he could be in danger, if history has anything to say about it. He haven't better than 16th in his last 5 spring races at Dover. He didn't qualify well, but he will be fine. He showed top 5 speed in practice on Saturday and is probably due for a good race in the spring time. I don't think he has speed to win, but never doubt this #18 team. They are incredible at making adjustments from practice to the race. The kicker? He already pretty good, judging by what he showed in practice.
5. Kyle Larson- The driver to beat maybe the most dangerous fantasy pick in the field. Kyle Larson has been snake bitten this entire season, but Dover has a history of jump starting seasons. Larson qualified 3rd and looked like the driver to beat in practice. His lap times looked very good, and his balance was better than most. After practice, Larson sounded pretty happy about his car. One important thing I took away from his interview? He said his balance didn't change much when he closed in on someone. He noted a lot of other cars didn't handle as well. I think Larson will be difficult to beat, but I also believe he will most likely cost himself a shot at a strong finish.
6. Chase Elliott- If you are buying into Chase Elliott this weekend, then you may want to not hear about history. Historically speaking, no driver has won from the pole since 2010. In the last 9 races, only once has a driver started on the pole and finished in the top 5. In 8 of those 9 races, the pole sitter has finished 7th or worse. In about half of those races, the pole sitter has finished outside the top 10. In practice, I thought Elliott looked good but only top 10 good. I say between 5th and 8th is where he will most likely finish!
7. Brad Keselowski- Keslowski probably should be higher because he probably has a car good enough to be a top 5 contender. There's just some drivers who I never fully get behind or being all-in on. Keselowski is a great wheelman and everything, but you wont see me having him in the top 5 often over the last few seasons. Unless he has a clear stout looking car. This weekend? Bottom top 5 guy to mid-top 10 guy. Good news? I dont have his floor below 9th.
8. Erik Jones- Jones is someone who has had a tough season, but he really haven't been talked about. This week, he has kinda gone under the radar, too. Even after displaying some speed in practice on Saturday. I wouldn't say that he is mega fast, but he is certainly worthy of being a top 10 guy. Jones' inconsistency is what makes me want to steer away from him. Not his speed or track record (which is solid) at Dover.
9. Jimmie Johnson- I know a lot of people are high on Johnson after he posted the fastest lap in practice on Saturday. Bad news? He isnt near that good. He never was on the track for any super long runs. He has a crazy good track record here, but it been awhile since he was considered elite. Top 10? Sure, I will believe that. Johnson does has upside here, but I wouldn't bank on striking gold. I would keep our expectations in check!
10. Aric Almirola- There were quite a few drivers who could had gotten the final spot in my ranking. Including Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer and Ryan Blaney. That's quite a list! I love Aric a lot and probably showed the most speed of that group. Hamlin has ran very well here in the past, but I think he will hover at backend of the top 10 at best. I just haven't seen "it" out of him since unloading. Bowyer has good speed to start the run, but he is lacking good fall-off. He sounded a little frustrated in practice, which kinda stood with me. Blaney has been a little inconsistent this season and not exactly showing record breaking speed. If you pick Blaney, he need to have a huge upside. He doesn't! Then there's Kurt Busch. I was high on him, but he wasn't exactly happy on Saturday. He wasn't happy with the balance of his car. He was considerably down on all the lap average charts. Kurt has major upside, if they fix him up though.
*****All stats are from Driveraverages.com
Twitter- @JeffNathans18
