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Auto Club -
#1-Kurt Busch: Auto Club is a great track for Kurt Busch and some people forget that sometimes (in my opinion), which is fine by me! He is nowhere what he use to be here, but in his last 7 races he has posted 4 finishes of 6th or better. Finishes of 30th and 24th in 2016 and 2017 really killed his average here though. He did finish 6th here in last season's race and finished 14th the season before. I don't hate him by any means! He also finished 2nd in the Michigan's June race as well for those keeping track at home. Realistically, he is most likely a top 10 to maybe very low-teens driver heading into the weekend.
#2-Brad Keselowski: For the longest time, we would consider this as a very bad track for Keselowski. His win in 2015 for me came out of nowhere, honsestly. Up to that point, he has made 6 career starts here and no finishes better than 18th. However, he hasn't finished worse worse than 9th since that win and that was the following season in 2016. In the past three seasons, he has finished 4th or better in all three races. And he has been a very strong performer during that span. I think the really funny thing about that 2015 win was he pitted for tires late and simply charged to the lead in the final few laps. Prior to that, he was pretty average I would say. I wonder if that move changed the course of his career at Auto Club? That win gave him some confident at this track!
#3-Austin Dillon: Believe it or not, but Austin Dillon has posted some of his best career numbers at Auto Club. In 5 career starts, he has produced 4 top 16 finishes. Including 3 straight top 11 inishes and back-to-back 10h place finishes! And to top it off, he is coming off a top 5 finish at Las Vegas!
#4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is a lot better than his recent number say, but he had a pair of tough races in 2017 and 2018. Of course, he got back on track in 2019 with a strong 4th place finish. So far, he has made 6 career starts at Auto Club with the #4 team. And it has been pretty even overall! He has 3 finishes in the top 4 (4th, 2nd and 2nd) and 3 finishes outside of the top 10 (13th, 35th and 36th). He had two top 5 finishes, followed two finishes outside of the top 10 and had a top 5 finish in 2019. The trend says he is due for another top 5 finish. Doesn't hurt that he had a strong car at Las Vegas, even though he faded on the long runs. Only a fool would bet against Kevin Harvick!
#9-Chase Elliott: Elliott had two really solid showing to start off his career at Auto Club, but over the past two seasons he has fallen off here. He finished 16th and 11th over the past two seasons here. Not horrible, but his performance in 2016 and 2017 during the races' were a lot more impressive to me. In 2018 and 2019, he was okay but never really showed us anything that jumped off the page. At least certainly nothing to write about. He was very strong at Vegas and probably could had won, if he didn't had that tire issue!
#10-Aric Almirola: Aric actually had a career season at Auto Club in 2019. In his first 10 career starts, he had just two top 15 finishes. In 2018, he had his 3rd career top 15 finish when he finished 12th. In his second year with the #10 team, he had his best race ever at Auto Club. He finished 9th and was top 10 (at the very least- closer to top 5) good the whole event. He finished 5th in both the 1st and 2nd stages, but ended in the 9th position when the checkers waved. He kinda disappointed me at Las Vegas, though.
#11-Denny Hamlin: Whenever I think of Auto Club, one of the first things that pop into my mind is that hard wreck that he suffered in 2013 and kinda altered a portion of his career. He was not the same dude for a couple years after that accident with Joey Logano. Seems like he back to old self now, but I still think about that race. He has ran really well here of late! In 3 of his last 4 races at Auto Club, he has compiled finishes of 7th or better. In the last four races here, he has finishes of 7th, 6th, 14th and 3rd. The Toyotas were a bit down on speed at Vegas, though. I am not gonna avoid them this weekend, but I will have an eye on them once we some track time!
#12-Ryan Blaney: Blaney had a rough start to his career at Auto Club, but he has turned it on over his last three starts at this track. In his second career start here, he finished 9th (in 2017) and then he followed it up with finishes of 8th (2018) and 5th in 2019. I love when the finishes are trending in the upward position! That is usually a really encourging sign as a fantasy pick. Of course, a fantasy pick can go south at any time but it's better than bunch of bad finishes. Blaney in general just good on intermediate tracks and don't really matter what kind we are speaking of.
#14-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer was a total non-factor at Vegas and I honestly wouldn't known if he was in the race (if I wasn't watching the leaderboard all race.) And he hasn't really been that bad at Auto Club in his career, but he is far from a sure thing. From 2009 to 2011, he posted 4 straight top 10 finishes. That remains his best strench by far. Since? Just three top 15 finishes in his last 8 races at Auto Club. He had finishes of 3rd and 11th in 2017 and 2018, if that means anything to you. He finished 38th in last season's event after overheating. So if you consider his recent results, there's reaosns to believe that he can a very effective fantasy pick this weekend!
#18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy had a rough weekend at Las Vegas. He wasn't bad, but never really contended. It kinda the feeling I got from him on Friday and it held true during the race, too. However, he is simply a magical here at Auto Club and his numbers are very scary! In his last 8 races, he has posted 6 top 3 finishes. In his last 6 races, he has gone to victory lane three times. Including in last season's race! He also went to victory lane in 2013 and 2014. He had to miss the 2015 event and had 25th place finish in 2016. If I remember correctly, Busch smacked the wall late in the race with about 5 to go. I cannot remember where he was running, but I think it between 7th and 9th was the area he ran at the time it happened. Otherwise, he has been pretty close to perfect at this place since the 2011 season.
#19-Martin Truex Jr: The 19 car was strong at Vegas, but some pit road mistakes costed him dearly late in the race. He really was the only JGR car to contend for the win. Truex Jr is always a threat to win on any given weekend and he has cracked the whip here at Auto Club of late. Especially over the last three seasons. He wasn't great in last season's race here, but he still managed 8th place finish. The previous two seasons, he was insanely good at Auto Club! In 2018, he led 125 laps on his way to victory lane. The previous season in 2017, he led 73 laps on his way to 4th place finish.
#20-Erik Jones: Jones was probably the worst JGR car at Las Vegas last weekend and I was very unimpressed with him. Can he turn it around at Auto Club? He has made 3 career starts and finished in the top 12 twice. He finished 7th in his debut at this track and 12th in the 2018 race. Then last season, he had a finish of 19th but that don't tell the whole story. He finished 6th in the first stage and 7th in the second stage. Things went south for him in the final stage of the race, though. He was battling a tight racecar in the final stage. On lap 160, he pitted for adjustments but he got a trapped a lap down when a caution came out before everyone could pit. Just bad timing for Erik and the #20 team.
#22-Joey Logano: I had a great feeling about Penske last weekend (all week really) at Las Vegas and he delivered the big win at the checkers! Things get better for Logano, as he's going to another great track. As Logano has been among the best at Auto Club over the past 5 seasons! He is riding a 5-race top 7 streak at this place and has compiled 4 straight top 5 finishes entering the 2020 event. Like I mentioned earlier with Denny Hamlin, he was in the headlines at the conclusion of the 2013 race. Of course, Logano was in the headlines with multiple drivers. I believe that was the race when Tony Stewart wanted to kick Joey's you know for blocking him. That's on top of the accident with Denny Hamlin as well.
#24-Wiliam Byron: My fellow timerssports' writer, Garry Briggs was very high on the 24 last weekend and he had every right to be. As the #24 car was looking pretty damn good. So props to Garry on jumping on that bandwagon. He didn't get the result, but at least he had some speed. Byron really haven't made any waves at Auto Club in his career yet, even though he only has two career starts. I am sure he will have a great chance to set career marks this weekend. As in his two career starts, he has finished 15th twice now. In 2019, he wasn't really a consistent finisher on these intermediate tracks in general, either. He had some top 10 finishes, but there also were a lot of finishes outside of the top 10 too. Auto Club was one of those races, too. I believe he will be better here in 2020, but the question is how much?
#42-Kyle Larson: CGR kinda sturggled in the race at Las Vegas over the weekend, but it was more Kurt than Kyle. Larson just was there like he always is at Las Vegas (kinda like I pointed towards in my Fantasy Nascar update.) When Larson first bursted onto the scene in 2014, this was one of the first places that really opened people eyes to what kind of talent that Kyle Larson was! He finished 2nd in the 2014 race here, but the following two seasons were pretty tough. He finished 26th in 2015 and followed it up with a really tough race in 2016 when he finished 39th. He smacked the wall very hard, it was a pretty scary impact and Larson even said it was a super hard hit. Things changed in 2017, where he was able to win after leading a race-high 110 laps. He followed that up with a 2nd place finish in 2018. But last season, he really wasn't that good. He never was even a top 10 driver and was lucky to finish 12th place honestly.
#48-Jimmie Johnson: I know a lot of people are pretty high on him, after finishing 5th at Vegas, but these HMS cars ran well at Vegas last season, too. So I am not sure, if I am ready to jump on that bandwagon yet. However, there's a lot more promise to these chevys than it was in 2019 at this time! Johnson earlier in his career was an ace here at Auto Club! I used to fear him some years ago at this place, so much so I would intentionally pick against him in hope to gain points on the competition! From 2007 to 2011, I had a lot of regret as Johnson produced 8 Top 3 finishes in 9 races. Including 4 race wins! His last win came in 2016 though, which is not terribly too long ago. But he hasn't performed at elite level over the past three seasons. As he has finishes of 17th, 9th and 21st. Those aren't complete garbage and I would be pretty happy if I got a 9th place finish out of Johnson here. Really at this point, we are pretty much aiming for a top 10 finish from Johnson. If we pick him, that is pretty much the upside expected from him!
#88-Alex Bowman: I thought the #88 car was gonna win at Vegas, before that caution came out. He had a lot of speed all weekend and really put it together at the end! Bowman has been just okay at Auto Club so far in his cup career with the #88 team. He has made two starts and has finishes of 21st and 13th. Neither races were he very good. He was pretty much average in both races and never really looked any good honestly. Bowman kinda been like that since joining the #88 team on these intermediate. Where he's okay, but kinda want more out of him in general. On a consistent basis, you should expect him to be a low to mid-teen driver. So anywhere from 13th to 17th most likely. That is probably the range, we are going for if we pick him. That's no hate on him, but it's gravy if he can finish/run in the top 10.
***All Stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
