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Race number 20 is up next at Indianapolis. This is my hometrack , so I know it like back of my hand. I will definitely be gunning for the win in my league this week. As we always try a little harder at a track close to home. Indy is a 2.5 mile racetrack. Its another flat though. Analysing data from other flats seems to be a good idea (especially Pocono). Also using past track data from 2013 and 2012 might also be useful.
1-Jamie Mac: JMac haven't been horrible here , but he haven't been great either. His middle of the road stats back that up. Over past two races here , JMac have complied a 18.5 average finish , 1 Top 20, 5 laps led and 70.3 driver rating. He been up and down at similar tracks.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski been awesome all season long. He is useable just about anywhere. But the big question is: Does he holds more value at upcoming tracks? Over past two races here , BK compiled an 15.0 average finish , 1 Top 5, 1 Top 10, 27 laps led , and 88.9 driver rating.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon been one of the most consistent drivers in the Sprint Cup Series in 2014. He always races better then he practices. So expect a top 20 this weekend. That's about it though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick will have a fast car , start up front , lead laps , get upset at his pit crew, and have a misleading finish. That's how majority of Kevin's races plays out. Over past 2 races here , KH have compiled an 16.0 average finish , 2 Top 20s , 2 laps led, and 78.8 driver rating. Kevin never have ran up front here , expect that to change.
5-Kasey Kahne: I don't trust Kahne , but I do think there upside with selecting him. Kahne have some terrific tracks coming up. And typically the HMS cars look really good at Indy. Over past two races here , KK have compiled an 7.5 average finish , 1 Top 5, 2 Top 15s, 0 laps led and 103.8 driver rating. Fyi he finish 3rd last year. Had one of the strongest cars outside of Ryan Newman and Jimmie Johnson.
10-Danica Patrick: Danica been a somewhat reliable option over the recent weeks for my team. Surprising since I said I would rather be burned alive , then use Danica again (after the Pocono race). Nevertheless , she isn't the ideal option this week. She finished 30th last year. So that isn't really impressive. I will probably leave her off.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin knows how to get around the flats. Also its seems the JGR cars are coming to full circle (like Michelle stated multiple times in past few weeks). Hamlin should be one of the popular choice (again). Over past two races here, DH have compiled an 12.0 average finish , 1 Top 10, 2 Top 20s , 31 laps led and 94.9 driver rating.
12-Juan Pablo Montoya: JPM knows how to get around Indy. He been close to VL. Few years ago he had the dominated car , but got penalize late in the race. He finish 18th back at Michigan. Expect a similar finish (if not better). This may be Juan last Cup race ever (unless Penske decides to use him again in 2015).
14-Tony Stewart: Another Indiana native, Smoke will try extra hard this week with entire state in his corner. Smoke may go down as the best driver ever at Indy. He pretty good here lately. Over past 2 races here , 7.0 average finish, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10s, 2 laps led and 98.2 driver rating.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy been solid here as of late. Not to mention , JGR have improved a ton since beginning of the season. Over past two races , Rowdy have compiled an 6.0 average finish , 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10s, 3 laps led and 109.4 driver rating.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth doesn't really excite me as an option at Indy. I mean there are clearly worst choices , but there are better places to use him as well. He finish 5th last year , but I am not in love with him this week. Still will have top 10 potential heading in though.
21-Trevor Bayne: Bayne typically would without question get a slot on my team (outside of Daytona and Talladega). This week that remains in question. Trevor is on the outside looking in. His stats at Indy: 25.0 average finish (3 starts), Best finish of 17th. Hard to leave him off , but same goes for Larson (always a threat for Qualifying points).
22-Joey Logano: Logano hurt his wrist in a crash at New Hampshire. Honestly I would rather step back for a few races and see how he does overall. As I did when Gordon injuried his back and Hamlin eye problem. I want max value from Logano. Over past 2 races here , JoLo have compiled an 20.5 average finish , 1 Top 10, 11 laps led and 86.6 driver rating.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is a four time winner here. Haven't won in awhile , but last time I was there (2011). He had the dominate car, to only be outsmarted by young Paul Menard. Gordon is having a similar season to 2011 , so I wouldn't be shocked to him dominate again. Gordon is my early pick to win. Over past two races here , Gordon have compiled an 6.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s, 12 laps led and 110.9 driver rating. In 20 career starts , Gordon have 16 Top 10s (11 Top 5s , 4 wins , 3 poles). That insanely good.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is a former winner. He outdueled Jeff Gordon and his dominate racecar in 2011. Of course that was on fuel mileage. Over past two races here , Paul compiled an 13.0 average finish , 2 Top 20s, 1 lap led and 85.3 driver rating. In 7 career races , Paul only have 1 Top 10. But 5 of those races were finished inside top 20 though.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman originally from South Bend , IN. He started on the pole in 2013. Led laps early on , before Johnson took over. Newman won the race in the pits with a genius call from his pit crew. Over past two races here , Newman have compiled an 4.0 average finish , 1 win , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s, 41 laps led and 114.1 driver rating. In 13 career starts , Newman have only 3 Top 10s. Which is about 23% of the time.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson will make my team this week , but for qualifying only. Larson will probably start up front and finish in the top 15 at least. Larson can be used anywhere. But how you use him is what matters. Iam saving him for Bristol and Atlanta. Two tracks , he can win at.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson been one of the most reliable drivers over the past 5 years at Indy. He dominated in 2012 and won. Dominated in 2013 and finish 2nd. He will be unquestionably one of the top picked drivers this week. Over past two races here , JJ have compiled an 1.5 average finish ,1 win, 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s, 172 laps led and 144.2 driver rating. In 12 career starts , Jimmie have 4 wins , 5 Top 5s , and 6 Top 10s.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin probably isn't worth consideration this week. Just wait a few weeks to the Glenn to use him. Trying to get fancy normally doesn't end well here. Especially since the same teams always run in front.
88-Dale Jr: Want to get off sequence this week? How about Dale Jr? He doesn't have 4 wins like his teammates , but he been pretty stout here lately. His stats in his previous two starts at Indy: 5.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s, 0 laps led and 103.6 driver rating. He have finishes of 4th and 6th.
99-Carl Edwards: I haven't been in love with Edwards since Sonoma. So don't expect me to use him at Indy either. Edwards been at best top 15 value since June 2. He haven't been great at Indianapolis either. His stats suggests that , too. His best finish since 2012 was 13th. In 9 career starts , Edwards have collected 1 finish 1st-5th (11%) and 3 finishes 6th-10th (33%). But 5 of 9 finishes were in the 11th-20th range. I know where I am putting my money.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Thank for reading
Jeff Nathans