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After a nice long off week , we will now make a final dash to the finish at Homestead. Over the next five races , we will see who are the contenders and pretenders in our leagues. The first 19 races were about using drivers to their maximum value. The final 17 races will be about finding value deals and avoiding deadly busts. Sleepers and Busts really comes factors in this final stench. Its just may be the determining factor in a fantasy championship in mid November.
Sleeper -
Kyle Busch: Remember two weeks ago at New Hampshire? Yeah that 2nd place made me look really good. Indianapolis is another great track for Mr. Rowdy. Expect majority to take Gordon, Harvick and Johnson. While far less then 20% will select Kyle Busch. Busch been at his best at Flats tracks in 2014. He started off the year slow. But been very stout lately. Top 4 at Richmond and New Hampshire. Top 10 at Pocono. Not to mention , no driver named Keselowski have more momentum then Kyle Busch. The Joe Gibbs cars are up to speed. Yet most haven't realized this. This is a golden opportunity.
Bust-
Ryan Newman: I like Newman , but as much as everyone else this week. His 4.0 average finish since 2012 is a bit misleading. Especially if you're not looking at the full picture. In 13 career starts , Newman only 3 times have scored a top 10. Top 15 is in his wheelhouse. I just don't see Newman knocking off a top 10 this week. He haven't been very good until recently. Which makes me doubt him. Looking for a top 15? This is your guy. If not, keep looking.
Sleeper -
Joey Logano: There is nothing quite like a value deal with a top 10 option. It odd because only 35% have selected Joey so far this week in Yahoo. His record isn't great here , but he have proven "track history" means nothing. Honestly I think the starts factor playing a role in limited number of players selecting Logano and Keselowski. At end of the day , Its about how you maximum studs like Logano. Practice could be the indicator of Logano value for the weekend. Friday lone practice session could set the tone for Logano upcoming trip at Indianapolis.
Bust -
Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is a must pick at all flat tracks. Well almost all. Ironically its this week at Indianapolis. You cannot tell by his recent effort here. Denny actually isn't very good here. His career average here is outside the top 15. Heck his last 5 races here is only a 15th place average finish. Including only 1 Top 10. Facts remains , most people will overlook these stats just suggests how good Denny is at Flats. Don't be most people. There are better tracks to use Denny. Much better tracks like Pocono, Atlanta , Bristol , Richmond , New Hampshire , Martinsville, Charlotte , Texas and Phoenix. At end of the day , I see Hamlin as a top 15 driver. With some great tracks coming up , I would rather leave him off.
Sleeper-
Juan Pablo Montoya: Guess who back? Yep JPM. I know most aren't his biggest fan (unlike myself). But fantasy nascar is all about putting aside your differents and personal feeling towards an individual. Juan in the past have had some terrific runs at Indy. Most recently in 2013, when Juan finish 8th in the 42 car. Of course we all recall his dominating performance in 2009. Before getting penalized late in the event. My point being , Juan can be found at a great value this week. His value/price will be down because he is on a limited scheduled. Doesn't matter the format. JPM = Good.
Bust-
Jimmie Johnson: No that not a typo. Jimmie Johnson is a potential bust this weekend. Few weeks ago , we saw what happen in New Hampshire. I really believe team 48 have decided go into test mode early. Its was quite odd nobody else had any tire issues. Which makes me speculate that Johnson could be a liability this week and in the upcoming. Of course I could be wrong and then look like a idiot. Overall just a gut feeling.
Twitter - @Gbriggs12
