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Saturday, July 26, 2014

Fantasy Nascar Update (IMS)

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Notes -

1-Jamie Mac: Wasn't very impressed by JMac. He should be avoided in all formats. Really lack speed. He was complete junk on Friday. Looked better on Saturday. Unfortunately Friday practice will more similar to raceday conditions. Also falls off way too much in a run. He will be lucky to finish 15th on Sunday.

2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski been fast all weekend. Isn't the driver to beat though. In limited starts leagues, Keselowski may be a bit overvalued this week. Mainly because he a top 5 car , but unlikely to score max points (like he did at Vegas ,Pocono, Kentucky and New Hampshire).

3-Austin Dillon : Dillon was average in practice. He complained about being loose mainly. He was just outside the top 20 in practice. So top 15 could be within reach this weekend. Depends on your other options , Dillon could make a nice play this weekend.

4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick car been pretty good since unloading. He starts from the pole. Looks like the man to beat. Sadly I don't think he does. The outcome may come down to how many issues/mistakes the 4 team makes. In Yahoo , 22% selected him. If he finish at front , you will likely get max points. If not you're basically a setting duck.

5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne starts inside the top 10. Looks to have a good enough car to stay around his starting position. That about it though. He really have limited upside this weekend. But could be a nice value deal , if a few big names mess up.

10-Danica Patrick: Danica have finish 22nd or better since Michigan. So I bet an top 20 is in her future at Indy. She was okay. That about it. Don't think she can muster anything better then 18th though.

11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin looked completely lost on Friday. Somehow worse on Saturday. Not sure how he manage that , but he did. Denny was asked why he is struggling. His response , "ESPN doesn't have enough airtime to break that down." Yeah it pretty bad. Starts deep in the 20s too. Could be a long weekend for anyone banking on Hamlin.

12-Juan Pablo Montoya - On Wednesday , Garry Briggs (@Gbriggs12) said "Doesn't matter the format, JPM = Good." Cannot put it simpler then that. Juan looks good for a top 15. By far the best value deal this weekend. Juan will be a popular starter in Yahoo on Sunday.

14-Tony Stewart: At start of the green flag , the temps will be close to 84°. Smoke is licking his chops. If I had one start left with Smoke , I would burn it here. Smoke looked pretty good all weekend. He will start 6th. What not to like? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Especially with 60% in Yahoo selecting him.

18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy looks to be top 10. Maybe top 5 , but it unlikely. Gibbs cars are just slightly off. Not horrible , but they (Kenseth and Busch) won't be able to say with the HMS powered engines. I have Busch crossing the line at 7th.

20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth was little better then Busch overall. He should be able to run top 10 easily. Top 5 is a possibility. He would probably need a short run at the end. Fell off on the long run too much to be a true contender.

21-Trevor Bayne: Bayne starts 12th. Won't be able to stay there for long. Doesn't sustain enough speed on the long run. He could knock off a top 20. Just outside the that is more realistic. I have him at 21th when the checkers waves.

22-Joey Logano: Logano wasn't bad. Doesn't look to be top 5 though. Latter top 10 seems most realistic. He doesn't fall off a lot (like other drivers) , but doesn't have the raw speed to challenge for the win either. There are better  tracks to use him. Pocono and Michigan comes mind. In which we will be visiting over the few weeks.

24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon looks to be one of the guys to beat. Maybe the safest option this weekend. It funny because we all thought that at New Hampshire too. Nevertheless the important thing is , he is capable of winning and have awesome track position to start.

27-Paul Menard: Menard is a tough guy to figure out. He looked high teen in practice. But he always races better he practices. So expect a finish of 12th-18th place range. Cannot expect much more then that. There are better options.

31-Ryan Newman: Newman looks top 10 or close to it. I expect Newman to be a contend early on. But I have a feeling he's get knocked down the running order after awhile. Especially since he doesn't have a car with raw speed like Harvick or Gordon. I have him coming home 9th. Hoping he leads a lap during a green flag pit cycle. Could really help his value. We will see though.

42-Kyle Larson: He starts top 15. Doesn't look to be top 10 material. Top 15 is definitely manageable. The rookie is having a phenomenal season. This should be a great week to rest Larson in Yahoo. Same goes for the cap salary leagues. Wish he started further back though. Could have been a terrific value in fantasy live.

48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson looks to be a top 5 guy. Doesn't look dominate though. Thought his teammate (Gordon) was better still. He probably doesn't give you max points. So I will save Johnson for Pocono. Still should make an fantastic option.

55-Brian Vickers: Vickers was okay. Nothing to write about really. He will hover around 13th-22nd all day long and likely finish about 15th. Really how Vickers been all season on flats. Just good enough to be fantasy relevant on a weekly basis.

78-Martin Truex Jr: Don't think Truex can finish inside the top 10 nor top 15. He just too inconsistent to be fantasy relevant at the moment. He could be the surprise of the weekend. Or be on a plane to Pocono before half the race over. Point being there safer options. He was average in practice.

88-Dale Jr: Dale was good overall. Not sure how good. Dale never really show what he has in practice or qualifying. I bet we will forget he even in the race until 35 to go. Then BANG , Dale is running inside the top 5. He always does that. Well sometimes.

99-
Carl Edwards: Edwards was actually decent for a change in practice. Looked top 20 overall. I have him crossing the line 19th. So top 15 is definitely within reach. Realistically I have him penciled in as a 20 option.

Twitter - @JeffNathans