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Jamie Mac probably had his best season in 2014 in quite some time. Unfortunately he showed inconsistency all season long. His biggest problem over the years been bad luck. Anytime he having day , then watch out. There a good chance we will find a way to finish poorly.
I feel like Intermediate racetracks will give him the most potential overall. Even though there also will be some terrible finishes as well. Charlotte jumps out as his best track. Many people thought it was a fluke at the All-star race. But it wasn't. He backed it up with top 5 at the 600. Past 4 races here , he have an 11.5 average finish. His 16.6 average finish in 25 career races not too shabby itself. Including two wins.
Atlanta isn't JMac best track by any means. But 4 of the past 5 races have resulted in efforts of 16th or better. Teen finishes usually his range/outlook. Texas and Kentucky are other tracks he potentially could find success at.
On the flip side , Kansas and Chicago are high-speed Intermediate racetracks to avoid JMac. Kansas been a iffy place for JMac. Last season he have strong at the 1.5 mile venue. Had an top 5 car before experiencing mechanical issues. Perfect example from the opening paragraph. Chicago not an overall strong track for Jamie outside last season solid finish. After 2010 , 5th finish JMac had 3 straight finishes outside top 20s. Before last season's 9th place finish. So he been so-and-so at Chicago.
On shorts tracks expect JMac to be very underrated. He been pretty good on all three venues. Unfortunately the results don't show it. I believe Martinsville is JMac is best track. JMac understands what it takes to be successful here. In his past 4 races , JMac have an 18.7 average finish. Seems accurate right? Wrong. Driver rating doesn't match. His 94.4 driver rating resembles an top 10 result or close to it.
Bristol is his second best short track. Over past 7 races, JMac have an 14.8 average finish. Dating back to 2010 , he have 13.6 average finish. His only bad finish was the first Bristol race of 2014. Was running competitively in the top 10 before the Harvick wreck. Richmond is another good track. Showed excellent promise in the past few seasons. Past 3 races, he have an 7.0 average finish with an 106.7 driver rating.
Flats are questionable for JMac. He will at times deliver quality results. But there room for improvements. New Hampshire been his best flat over the past 2 seasons. His worst result been 16th and have 2 Top 5s in that span. 95.5 Driver rating backs up that 9.2 average finish for the most part. Phoenix is the track I am suspicious about. He been decent past few seasons. But outside of an 10th place finish in 2014. JMac Phoenix record been pretty dull. Not a ideal place to use him honestly.
Larger Flats been good to JMac for the most part. Pocono better of the two large flats. Before 2012 , JMac was pretty average here. Then June 2012 race he turned a corner suddenly. All 4 finishes in that span have been 16th or better. Which comes to an 11.5 average finish.
Indianapolis on the other hand been bleak for JMac lately. After 3 finishes of 6th or better in four race span from 2008-2011. His last three finishes are 15,22,and 20. Not exactly stellar numbers. But if the trend continues , he is expected to have a great finish in 2015 at Indy. At least according to the pattern in his career finishes.
At road courses expect mix results. At Sonoma , you can expect a great run by JMac. But questionable if he can close the deal. At Watkins expect a results in the teens. JMac much better at Sonoma just for the record. And it not very debatable either.
JMac is fool gold at plate races. There always will be a small chance he score an respectable finish. Unfortunately most times he will either win or finish outside the top 20. Checkers or wreckers basically. Not exactly something I want in a fantasy pick. So by all means keep picking him at Daytona and Talladega , just more fantasy points for me.
JMac will be inconsistent all season. That been his MO in his career. I think that a given. Most weekends expect him to be underrated. Why? The combo of inconsistency & the talent level of the NSCS field. I think his best days will on the shorts and high-speed Intermediate tracks. Also Sonoma isn't a bad place to use him. His worse days will likely come unexpectedly. For JMac it usually does.
Twitter - @MattAleza