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After a mostly-wreck free Daytona , we have to quickly turn our attention to Atlanta Motor Speedway. Atlanta is the first Intermediate track of back-to-back trips. As next week is Las Vegas. A lot of this week's data will be used next week for Las Vegas. In the past few years , Phoenix was the second stop of the season. So we wouldn't get this luxury. For Atlanta you need a car that handles well , but also is fast. The fall-off is usually significant , so we should be able figure out who will be at front and contending.
Big mistake I see every year after Daytona is people going crazy off-sequence because of a poor start to the season. If you are in a hole don't panic. Usually reactions like that put you further in a hole. So sit back and take the hole you are in find a way use it to your advantage. Alright folks enjoy today's preview!
1-JMac: JMac is one of my favorite sleepers at Atlanta. Last season Jamie shown he can run up front with the big boys on this type track. Especially later in the season. Over past 6 races on 1.5 mile tracks , JMac have compiled 4 Top 10s. Including 3 finishes inside top 5. Should be 4 Top 5s if it wasn't for the late bad luck at Kansas. Last season at Atlanta , JMac finished 12th. Over past 2 seasons at Atlanta , JMac compiled 11.5 average finish. Including a 85.4 driver rating. Last season Jamie was a mid teen-ish driver and posted 76.2 driver rating.
2-Brad Keselowski: Brad K comes to Atlanta after a disappointing Daytona 500. Last season high-speed Intermediate racetracks were Keselowski playground. He won several times on this type track. A favorite in my eyes. Last 6 races on 1.5 mile high-speed Intermediate tracks , BK compiled 16.1 average finish. Misleading. At Atlanta and Kansas , he crashed out both event. He had 3 Top 3 in 3 other events. Over past 2 seasons at Atlanta , BK have a terrifying 37.0 average finish and 90.0 driver rating. If it wasn't obvious already , Brad have had some terrible luck at Atlanta recently. His 90.0 driver rating tells me he been pretty competitive when he been on lead lap. If he completed all the laps his driver rating would've easily topped 100.0. During 2010 and 2011 seasons , BK finishes 5th and 6th respectively.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is coming off top 15 at Daytona 500. Dillon needs to prove himself starting this week. Last season Dillon was a consistent top 20- 25 threat , but never became that Top 15 contender. Last season at Atlanta , Dillon struggled at Atlanta. Started 13th but drifted back to 24th down a lap at checkers. In that event , Dillon posted a 62.5 driver rating. Which put him mid twenties at best for overall performance. Dillon probably isn't worth using until what he has for the 2015 season.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick was easily one of the most impressive drivers on high-speed Intermediate racetracks in 2014. He seemed to have a knack for dominating these races. In my opinion last season , Harvick was screwed on that next to last restart. He was a man on a mission. Nobody outside of Gordon (went multiple laps down) had anything for him. Last season at Atlanta he started on the pole and led 195 laps before Menard lost control on the front row. Eventually finished 19th. Before last season poor finish , Harvick had 4 straight Top 9 finish with driver rating above 103.0. Only twice since 2008 Harvick failed to finish inside top 10 (excluding 2014.)
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne finished 9th at the Daytona 500 and is the defending race winner. Kahne had one of the strongest cars during last season race. Started 10th and posted 105.5 driver rating on his way to victory lane. Kahne have a major flaw and it pretty obvious throughout his career. He either finishes very well at Atlanta or finishes very poor. Kahne have a 18.5 average finish and 3 wins. In 18 career starts , Kahne have 9 Top 9 (7 finishes 5th or better) finishes. But he also have 9 finishes outside top 22. Including 6 finishes of 32nd or worse. Kahne was terrible on high-speed Intermediate racetracks. Cannot name a track outside of Atlanta he was legitimate at.
10-Danica Patrick: During Speedweeks , everyone was saying Danica best track was Daytona. Actually Atlanta may be a better track. Last season she started 27th and finished 6th. She's wasn't quite that good. For that event , Danica posted an 81.2 driver which indicates she was a teen-ish driver overall. Believe she gained track position there at the end and kept it. In 2013 she finished 21th. If I remember right she spent majority of that race off the lead lap. I see myself using Danica in Yahoo if nothing better comes along.
11-Denny Hamlin: A lot of people forget Hamlin is arguably the best driver since 2012. Excluding 2013, Hamlin have finishes of 3rd and 1st. In those two races , Hamlin posted 127.9 driver rating and 142 laps led. Hamlin was solid driver on 1.5 mile high-speed Intermediate tracks in 2014. Especially from Atlanta to Homestead (6 races) , Hamlin had a 7.0 average finish and 6 Top 10s in '14. Only driver in the series to conquer that feat. Will be interesting how JGR unloads.
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke had a fast car at Atlanta last season. I remember him blasting through the field at the start. Unfortunately he received damaged (believe contact with Keselowski) and finished well outside top 30. Before 2012 , Smoke was a machine here. Including back-to-back top 5 in 2010 and 2011 seasons. Since 2001 , Smoke have only 3 finishes worse than 13th. He pretty good here. I don't doubt his abilities , but I would probably wait on Smoke. Last season he didn't prove to me that Smoke is back. So it would be difficult to pull the trigger so early in the season. Definitely major upside in picking Smoke though.
15-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer isn't someone I want on my roster for Atlanta. Never really been a great track for him. 4 Straight finishes outside top 20. Including back-to-back finishes outside top 35. Clint big problem came on Intermediate tracks. Toyota didn't have the power to compell Bowyer to a competitive level. His stats were downright staggering. Not all his fault , but I am waiting on Bowyer. This isn't exactly his strongest type track either.
16-Greg Biffle: The Biff is coming off a top 10 finish at the Daytona 500. Not really sure what to expect from the RFR camp. Logically probably not much based off of last season efforts. They were just good enough all of 2014. Teen-like driver mainly. Last year event , Biff took his Ford to a 10th place finish. He was pretty much exactly that. Wasn't much beyond that 10th. Unless Roush made significant improves in offseason , I expect a low to mid teen finish out of Biff.
18-Erik Jones: Rumors going around, Jones is the top candidate to replace Busch at JGR. I personally don't like him much at Atlanta. While Jones will be in top-tier ride , he needs seat time in order to find success. If he named a long-term answer , then there plenty of opportunities to use him. For Yahoo Fantasy Racing purposes , he ranked 5th on my list. Smith, Dillon , Danica , Allagier will probably be more useful. Atlanta can be a tricky place to make a debut at.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards was good in 2014 on high-speed intermediate racetracks. I think he will be great with Joe Gibbs Racing. Watch out for the 19 car of Edwards. Atlanta could be considered one of Edwards best tracks. In 17 career races , Edwards have 3 wins and 14.5 average finish. In last year event , Edwards started 11th and finished 5th. To put it in perceptive , JGR had all their cars place inside top 4 last season.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth started the season off rough , but Atlanta always been a great track for him though. Over past two seasons , Kenseth could be the most underrated driver in the series. Last season he started 5th and finished 2nd. Kenseth had a top 5 car all race long. Kenseth been excellent from career point of view too. Last time he finished worse than 13th? Spring of 2005 (15 races ago) , and that's why he called Mr.consistency.
22-Joey Logano: Logano makes a strong argument to be considered the best driver over past two season at Atlanta. Last season he started and finished 14th. He was much better than that though. He was a top 10 threat all race long , but never quite a race winning potential car (Nobody outside of Harvick was though.) Nevertheless he was bad fast all year long in 2014 on high speed Intermediate tracks. Logano won multiple times on similar track and was a weekly contender. He's a great option to consider. Even though Logano locked in chase already pretty much.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon didn't have a good race here last season. Had a tire go down before halfway and went multiple laps down after receiving damage from collision with the wall. Eventually got back on lead lap , not until the final caution though. In 2013 , Gordon finished 6th after starting 5th. In that race Gordon held a 117.1 driver rating. Gordon have 4 straight races at Atlanta with driver rating above 100. 11 of past 15 races have resulted in 9th or better. Including a win in 2011 and 2nd in 2012. Cannot go wrong with Gordon folks.
27-Paul Menard - Menard is my personal sleeper for Atlanta. Watch him go unnoticed and score a top 10. Never fails with the Nard. Menard started 33rd and worked himself into the top 10 before the next to the final caution. He was a little better than that 18th place final result. I say he was a 13th place driver most of the night. Posted a 79.8 driver rating , but his poor starting position makes that stat somewhat misleading. Good news is Menard have developed a trend over his past 6 races. Which is 1 single digit , then followed by two finishes outside top 17. If you believe in trends , Menard have finishes of 18th and 24th past two seasons. Side note: I do think it wiser to load up on big names at Atlanta.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman holds the best average finish in the series over past two seasons. Last season Newman finished 7th after starting 4th. From career point of view , Newman been hit or miss. 8 Finishes of 10th or better in 22 starts. Also have 8 finishes of 20th or worse. Feel like Newman a sitting duck in Yahoo Fantasy Racing. Despite being reliable the past two seasons.
41-Regan Smith: Kinda feel like in allocation leagues , we have to use him because the uncertainty of the 41 team. Smith unlikely to contend for a win. By looking at entry list , he probably the top option in Yahoo. His low cost in salary cap format will make him a solid option in games like Fantasy Live. When opportunities presents themselves we must pounce. I have Smith as a mid-teen driver. Similar to Daytona result.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson in my opinion gonna win and its gonna come at Atlanta or a similar track like Texas. Trust me this kid can drive and its no joke. Worn out racetracks seems to fit Larson driving style. He was great here last season. He started 3rd and finished 8th. While posting 91.1 driving in that event. I think a lot of us fantasy nascar peeps knew he would perform well at Atlanta because of unbelievable performance at Texas earlier in the season. Not a lot to go on with Larson. We know he will be fast.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson might be a good pick for your fantasy team. Okay I lied he's a great pick! Last season he finished 4th and posted 105.7 driver rating. From career point of view , JJ been superb. In 23 starts , JJ have 12 Top 5s. Only 11 finishes worse than 5th . Pretty impressive for place like Atlanta. In those 23 races , Johnson have 11.6 average finish and 2 wins. He sweep both races at Atlanta in 2007. Watch out for the 48 this week. He might even slip under the radar in certain games.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is coming off a 3rd place finish at the Daytona 500! Atlanta is a good place to keep the momentum going for 88 team. Since 2012 (3 races) , Dale Jr have 3 straight finishes of 11th or better. Last season Dale Jr started 20th and finished 11th. He posted 83.6 driver rating in that event. In 2013, Dale was even better! Last season Dale was fairly strong on high-speed Intermediate tracks. Consistency was a top 10 threat. Expect more of the same on Sunday.
***All stats from Driver Averages & Racing-reference info
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Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
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