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After a pretty lopsided Las Vegas race , we turn our attention to Phoenix. Phoenix is one of 4 flat-short racetracks. The other three are: Richmond , Martinsville and New Hampshire. We will use data from last season at those flats and recent data at Phoenix. Also we will take into consideration current 2015 data as well.
Lets roll!
1-Jamie Mac: JMac will always have the potential to run well , but he is inconsistent. To be honest , I feel more confident about using Jamie at a flat track. Least early in the season. Looking at his results on this type track , Jamie could be a decent sleeper. Surprisingly Jamie have a 14.0 average finish and a 15.0 average running position over his previous 3 Phoenix races. He shown nice speed this season so far.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski and Team Penske is a little behind so far this season. Especially once we get about 50 laps or so in. The hendrick power cars seem to take control and all flock to the front. From fantasy point of view , its kills Brad Keselowski value. Penske need to find more speed and they'll eventually. Phoenix a good track for Brad though. Over past 6 races , BK have 5 finishes of 6th or better. Last season he finished 4th and 3rd.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon last season found relatively solid success on the flats. He makes a strong argument to be considered in certain formats. Unfortunately his Phoenix record is much like his Sprint Cup trophy case. Last season he raced twice at Phoenix and had 31.0 average finish.
4-Kevin Harvick: I am puzzled how good Kevin Harvick is! Crazy how switching organizations can re-energize your career. At Phoenix , he is the top pick and it isn't debatable either! Over past 4 races at PIR , Kevin have 3 wins , 4.5 average finish and 139.7 driver rating. Including 3 straight wins and with driver rating above 140.0 in all 3 those race. Last season he sweep Phoenix and led 488 of 624 (78%) laps.
5. Kasey Kahne: Kahne isn't someone I necessary want to use at a track like Phoenix. Especially in limited starts league. He will be more beneficial at more required downforce tracks. So far in his career with Hendrick , Kahne have been hit or miss. In past 6 races at PIR , Kahne have 3 finishes in the top 11 (2 finishes of 4th or better) and 3 finishes of 19th or worse. Kahne will contend if HMS gives him a fast car. If HMS doesn't then it could be a long weekend. If the 2015 trend continues , then he should least be in contention for a top 10 this week.
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick typically will run her worst on this type track. I believe she will find more success on the faster and bigger tracks. In 4 starts , she only have 1 Top 30. I look across the board and her short-flat track record is petty weak overall. Starting Danica on a shorter track , never seems like a good idea in the first place. Especially if there better options available.
11-Denny Hamlin: The JGR cars are lacking speed (compared to HMS) , but Hamlin actually been able stay with the chevys for the most part. I been impressed to tell you the truth. Phoenix and short flats been a strong spot for Hamlin. Over the past 6 races at PIR , DH have 3 finishes of 5th or better. Excluding 2013 fall race (irreverent data) , he been among one of the best in the series.
16-Greg Biffle: Expect the Biff best results to come on some of these shorter flats. Last season he was very reliable. Over past 4 races at PIR , Biff been at best a top 15 option. His 14.0 average finish and 15.3 average running position resembles that. So far in 2015 , RFR have shown little improvements from last season.
18-David Ragan: Ragan will pilot the 18 Toyota in place of Kyle Busch once again. I kinda feel like the 18 team at disadvantage right now. Not because Kyle Busch is out , but because the Crew Chief experience at the top level. And missing a experience vet like Busch makes matters worse. Overall I think we have to continue to ride David Ragan until he rejoins the 34 team. Especially in Yahoo Fantasy Racing.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards have shown potential the past two weeks , but haven't been able to capitalize on either opportunity unfortunately. We head to another Carl track. Hard to imagine he have another disappointing finish. Kinda feel like he have the jitter from switching teams. His record here is pretty solid though. 7 of the past 10 races have ended in 15th or better. JGR showed a lot of speed on this type track in 2014. Especially after the first Richmond race.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is like the posterboy for reliability. He is the guy you want when you want a solid top 10 - Top 15. Unfortunately he is probably nothing beyond that. From career point of view , MK have finished 15th or better 17 times in 25 races. Last two season on this type track , Kenseth been one of the best in the series.
22-Joey Logano: Logano have shown he can run up front at PIR since joining Team Penske. He actually have stellar stats! Over past 3 races here , JoLo have compiled 6.3 average finish and 3 Top 10s with an 7.3 average running position (4th-best). Also have led 121 laps (2nd-most) , 112.3 driver rating (3rd-best) and 55 Fast laps (4th-most). In 2014 , Logano was the best driver on this type track! In 8 races he had an 8.4 average finish with a series-best 6.4 average running position. Including 2 wins and 7 Top 10s.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is coming off another bad luck performance! I personally cannot roster him or recommend him to anyone. So far he have yet to put together a complete race in my opinion. His 18th at Las Vegas was far from perfect. That bad luck continue to tarnish the 24 team. Gordon does have decent stats at Phoenix though. Over past 4 races , Gordon have compiled 7.5 average finish , 3 Top 10s and 8.5 average running position. Still don't trust him though.
27-Paul Menard: Would you believe that Menard had an 12.5 average finish at Atlanta and Las Vegas? I am certain only the people who started him in their lineups knew that. He so good at finding ways to finish well , despite being non-relevant all day long. Phoenix will be no different. He will likely start mid-pack and find himself in top 15 at the checkers. He reminds a lot of a lesser Matt Kenseth. I wouldn't recommend him to your fantasy team. Too many better options with much more upside.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman actually been one of the better drivers in the series at Phoenix the past few races here. Over the past 3 races , RN have an 9.3 average finish (6th-best) and 11.7 average running position. Last season Newman was very underrated on this type track! In 8 races , Newman held an 10.3 average finish with 5 Top 10s. Same number of Top 10s as Gordon and Harvick. Newman was actually one of 3 drivers (Dale Jr and Biffle) to sweep the top 20 the shorter flats.
41-Regan Smith: Smith have been very successful in filling in for Kurt Busch and it looks like it will continue as Nascar don't look to be backing down from the suspension of Kurt. Regan is coming off an 16th place run at Vegas and will likely make for another top 20 run at Phoenix. He will be a very useable options in most formats.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is coming off his first top 10 of the 2015 season! Got to admire this kid talent. His car was a handful with 100 laps to go. Most guys probably would've been in the wall. At Phoenix there really not much to go on stat wise. In 2014 , Larson had finishes of 13th and 20th. I expect another top 10 out of Larson on Sunday. Personally I think there are better places to use him though.
47-AJ Dinger: Whatever RCR did in the offseason , I love it! Martin Truex Jr , Casey Mears and AJ Dinger all have gotten off to nice starts. What do they have in common? An alliance with the RCR stable. The Dinger is someone to watch out for in the upcoming weeks. I am not willing to jump on the bandwagon , but I am close it. First I want to see what the Dinger has on the flats. We know they're fast on the high-speed Intermediate tracks.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is coming off a bad finish at Vegas. The 48 team was embarrassed in the state of Nevada. I believe the 48 team is pissed off! Don't think they won't bring a ridiculous fast piece to the track. If there a team can can snap Harvick's Phoenix streak , then look no further! His stats are very good. In 23 career starts , Johnson have a staggering 18 Top 7 finishes! Including 4 wins and 14 Top 5s. In the past 3 races (excluding 2014 fall race) , Johnson have an 3.7 average finish and 6.0 running position. More races we run here on this new surface , more this track is turning back to the 48 favor.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr is just having an awesome start! Unbelievable really , he has three top 10s in 3 races. While his stats aren't great at Phoenix , I personally don't think it matter. When a driver is hot , you best run them until you see a red flag. And after last week I say run the 78 into the ground! In Yahoo Fantasy Racing , my plan is to use Martin much as possible early and often. Especially since I suspect some of the tog guys will take awhile to get rolling.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr 2-tire stop may had cost him a win at Vegas (maybe). Anyhow he is someone I really like at Phoenix. Last season he was the one guy who could stay with the 4 car. If I had to lock one pick in right now and Harvick wasn't available , Dale Jr is my man. Multiple reason I really like Dale potential: 1) Excellent track record 2) Tons of momentum 3) Reliability. 3 Things you want in a fantasy pick. Over past 2 seasons (4 races) , Dale Jr have an 4.7 average finish.
***All stats from Driver averages and FantasyRacingCheatsheet
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