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What a Bristol race! Those are the races as fantasy experts we hate. Because the likelihood of our original standards and expected outcomes become extremely low. The five best cars didn't even finish on the lead lap! Anyhow it is what is , we cannot predict what we don't know.
This week we head to another short track in Richmond. The most similar track is Phoenix. They share a lot of the same characterizes , despite one being larger than the other. We will use stats from the past 4 Richmond races to determine who we should consider this week. Also we will look at Phoenix from earlier this season even though Phoenix was just reconfigured few years ago.
We could also look at Martinsville , but I always have consider Martinsville to be a completely different animal! It probably wouldn't hurt to refer back it to though.
1-Jamie Mac: Jamie Mac continues to have a great season despite having bad luck at Bristol while running 5th and eventually finishing 14th. Jamie is someone who should be heavily on your radar! Over the past 4 Richmond races ,JMac have compiled 11.8 average finish , 10.5 average start , 8.5 average running position , 6 laps led and 99.9 driver rating. Amazing stats and they should be much much better! In 2013 , he finished 26th. If I remember right he had a unscheduled pit stop late in the event while running inside the top 10. I could be wrong. Since then , Jamie have wheeled off three straight finishes of 13th or better. Including 2 of those 3 races ending in 4th place. Unfortunately they both been in the fall not spring. JMac actually been incredibly consistent since spring 2010! Over that 10 race span , he have 8 finishes inside the top 20. Including 5 of his past 7 ending inside the top 14.
2-Brad Keselowski: People may back away from the Penske cars this week as they both disappointed last week at Bristol. Fine by me! Over the past 4 Richmond races , 13.8 average finish , 7.3 average start , 6.0 average running position , 639 and 117.1 driver rating. His 639 laps led immediately jumps out , right? He actually led over half of those laps last fall at Richmond. Last fall he led a staggering 383 of 400 while leading in single major category. In that race race he started 1st , finished 1st , 1.0 average running position (race-high) , 383 laps led (race-high) , and 149.8 driver rating (race-high). He also finished 4th in the spring last season. Even though he probably should have won that race too. In that race he started 2nd , finished 4th , held 3.0 average running position (race-high) , 114 laps led (2nd-best) , and 128.5 driver rating (2nd-best). I believe Kenseth held him up which ultimately cost him a potential race win. At Phoenix earlier this season , Keselowski finished 6th.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is coming off his best performance of the entire season and now have two more opportunities to keep the momentum going at Richmond and Talladega. I feel like Dillon is more of a shorter track racer than a Intermediate track guy. He wasn't super impressive on shorter flat last season , but he consistency improved minus Phoenix. Last season he had finishes of 27th and 20th. Nothing special , but I expect another improvement this weekend from him. At Phoenix he finished 15th and posted 81.8 driver rating. If he can finish from 15th-18th I think it would be a win for Dillon. At this point in his career , he is trying to log laps and make improvements in every start. This season he definitely have taken the next step in running consistency in the top 20 instead of top 25. Little by little, he is getting closer to that top 15.
4-Kevin Harvick: A lot of people automatically assume if Harvick dominated at Phoenix , then same apply for Richmond. While these tracks are similar , I think a lot of Harvick dominance have to do with Phoenix newly reconfigured track surface than anything. Even though , Harvick been a machine here too! In 28 career starts , Harvick have a 11.0 average finish , 17 Top 10s and 3 wins. Including 5 straight finishes of 11th or better. 2 Of those efforts have ended inside the top 5. Harvick also have 2 wins at Richmond in his past 7 starts. Over his past 4 Richmond starts , Harvick have compiled 7.0 average finish , 10.8 average start , 7.3 average running position , 43 laps led and 107.5 driver rating. Awesome stats , but it nothing compared to his Phoenix record in that same span. However I believe Harvick scores his 4th win at Richmond on Saturday night.
5-Kasey Kahne: I don't call Kasey Kahne the most inconsistent driver in the game for nothing! His bad luck is like herpes almost impossible to get rid of! I don't like Kahne much this week to be completely honest. He never been terrible here nor have he been great. Always just good enough to have some degree of relevancy. Over his past 4 Richmond races , Kahne have compiled 16.5 average finish , 11.8 average start , 15.3 average running position , 0 laps led and 82.1 driver rating. Since joining HMS , Kahne have only 1 Top 10 in 6 starts and that was his debut with the organization. His past 5 starts have ended in 12th - 21st place range. At Phoenix , Kahne finished 4th. But never truly contended for a top 5 until late in the event. They struggled a lot early on.
10-Danica Patrick: Danica Patrick is sizzling! In the offseason I said I needed to see her take the next step and boy did she ever! 3 Straight Top 16s with 2 Top 10s in that span. The big question is can she keep the ball rolling? 3 Of her 4 career races have been relatively poor overall! However , Danica best race was last fall 16th place run. I think it difficult to judge Danica on any given week because of her inflated stats from her first two seasons. Especially first her rookie season. Earlier this season she finished 26th at Phoenix. Even though I believe she was got damaged which derailed her potential finish in that race.
11-Denny Hamlin: There a lot of questions surrounding Denny Hamlin right now. Will he be behind the wheel at Richmond? Or will Erik Jones? I am gonna assume Hamlin will be back because he looked fine to me in that rain delay. His career stats are really good here too! In 17 career starts, Hamlin have an 10.4 average finish and 2 wins. Along with 2 wins , he also have 9 Top 10s and 14 Top 20s. Only 1 other active driver have led more laps at Richmond than Denny's 1389 laps led. That driver would be Jeff Gordon (1637) in 44 starts. Unfortunately his past 3 races have ended in 21st or 22nd with two of those races ending in least one lap down. Including only 15.3 average running position and 77.9 driver rating. JGR short track program seems to back to where it was few years ago. Which makes Hamlin very relevant if he races on Saturday.
15-Clint Bowyer: Honestly Bowyer doesn't exactly scream roster me , but he have proven that he is useable on shorter tracks this season. With Top 15s at Martinsville and Bristol. And his Richmond record since joining MWR been very good! In 6 races , he have finished 4 of those inside the top 10. Honestly there were only one bad race (performance wise) in Spring of 2014. He had a suspension problem I because , which led to an 43rd-place finish. His 25th place finish in 2013 was because of the infamous "spin" right before the chase started! Historically speaking , Bowyer been very good. In 18 career starts , Bowyer have an 11.0 average finish and 10 Top 10s with 2 wins. Last one coming in 2012. More encouraging news? 3 of his past 5 starts have ended in 3rd or better!
16-Greg Biffle: Biff have been a huge disappointment the past few years and its seems that not gonna change anytime soon. If he cannot competitively run at Bristol , then I think it time to stick a fork into him. The problem is there no leadership at RFR. Biff needs another veteran teammate to lean on. Like he did a lot with Matt Kenseth. For Richmond I expect at best an top 15 run from him. More likely he will be an top 20 option with limited upside. 4 Of his past 5 Richmond starts have ended in the top 20. Including both races in 2014. Honestly Richmond never been a great track for Greg. He always been inconsistent with his finishes but had a lot of upside. However, he lately have become much more consistent and predictable. Unfortunately his upside have diminished as well. At Phoenix ,Greg finished 27th and never really contended for a top 20 either.
18-David Ragan: Two significant events occurred at Bristol! First Erik Jones took command of the No.11 Toyota after a rain delay and second David Ragan finished 41st after wrecking. Those two things tell me Ragan days are numbered in the 18 car. The word on the street is Ragan have 2 races left before returning to the 34 car. I think he is a must have in Yahoo Fantasy Racing! Without question now , especially since it pretty much set in stone regarding Ragan future. Something most of us suspected from the very beginning. Expect another top 20 type night on Saturday from the 18 car.
19-Carl Edwards: It been extremely difficult to pinpoint where to use Edwards! The performance been there , but the results haven't. Richmond is a great track for Carl , but I still don't trust Carl. In 21 career races , Edwards have an 13.9 average finish and 11 Top 10s with 1 win. Over his past 4 Richmond races , Edwards have compiled 9.5 average finish , 20.0 average start , 14.5 average running position , 46 laps led and 91.9 driver rating. At Phoenix , Edwards finished 13th. But he was much better than that. Expect another top 10 run from Edwards , but weather he finishes there is questionable.
20-Matt Kenseth: JGR short track program been unbelievably this season! 2 wins in 2 races , and that impressive. Maybe we should start taking notice of that? Kenseth is fresh off a win at Bristol and now looking to go back-to-back. He will get overlooked and that a fact! He doesn't have any impressive numbers from career point of view. In 30 career starts , Matt have an 16.3 average finish and 13 Top 10s with 1 win. Over his past 4 races at Richmond , Matt have compiled 14.5 average finish , 8.5 average start , 13.0 average running position , 180 laps led and 102.9 driver rating. Great stats , but that with his 41st place finish from last fall. Minus that race , since 2013 (3 races) he have complied 6.0 average start (2nd-best) , 6.0 average finish (2nd-best) , 6.0 average running position (series-best) , 180 laps led and 113.1 driver rating (Series-best). Last spring he started 12th , finished 5th , led 35 laps , had 9.0 average running position and 102.3 driver rating. I think JGR is way better this year than they were last season at this point.
22-Joey Logano: Logano had a tough race at Bristol , but Richmond is a good place to get back on track. Over his past 4 Richmond starts , Logano have compiled 8.0 average finish , 9.3 average start , 11.0 average running position , 46 laps led and 99.4 driver rating. He was very good last season at the 0.75 mile racetrack. He compiled 3.5 average finish , 11.0 average start , 5.0 average running position , 46 laps led and 116.4 driver rating. He wasn't quite as good as teammate Keselowski , but he undoubtedly a contender. Don't expect anything to change on Saturday night.
24-Jeff Gordon: I hinted toward Gordon would get back on track last week and he did at Bristol. I think he will capitalize this week at Richmond. He almost won this race last season , but had to settle for 2nd to Logano. Over past 4 Richmond races , Gordon have compiled 5.8 average finish , 7.8 average start , 8.8 average running position , 222 laps led and 110.2 driver rating. 3 Of his past 5 races at Richmond have ended in 2nd place. His other two been 8th and 11th. In fact 12 of his past 16 races at Richmond have ended in 10th or better. Gordon was competitively running inside the top 5 at Phoenix until a late restart cost him. Ironically a speeding penalty cost Gordon a win at Martinsville. Bad luck been his flaw.
27-Paul Menard: Richmond never been a great track for Menard and honestly that isn't very surprising. He more of a intermediate track specialist than anything. Cannot really recommend Menard this week because his only decent performance was in 2013 where he finished 5th. Over his past 4 Richmond races , Menard have compiled 15.0 average finish , 18.5 average start , 18.5 average running position , 3 laps led and 74.1 driver rating. Even though 2 of his past 3 spring races have ended in 13th. Overall there much better options to consider!
31-Ryan Newman: Not gonna spend a lot of time on Newman, since he doesn't hold a lot of value at this point in most formats. Richmond is a great track for Newman. In 26 career starts , He have an 11.2 average finish and 16 Top 10s with 1 win. Last season he compiled 8.5 average finish , 15.5 average start , 9.0 average running position , 0 laps led and 100.3 driver rating. Overall it tough to use Newman in most format because his lack of upside and/or value.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch have a serious problem finishing races and it pretty obvious now. At Bristol I thought he was gonna win. After smashing into Edwards that was an afterthought! I like Busch , but I don't love him. To me , Busch need to show some consistency in his performance/finish. Last season he compiled 15.0 average start , 15.0 average finish , 14.0 average running position , 0 laps led and 85.7 driver rating. Last fall he finished 7th. Over his past 4 Richmond races , Busch have compiled 10.3 average finish , 11.5 average start , 9.0 average running position , 109 laps led and 103.4 driver rating. He should contend for least another top 10 on Saturday.
42-Kyle Larson: At Bristol Larson looked like the guy we thought he was! I thought he was going to win , until he had to pit. Last season he was very good here as was teammate Jamie Mac. Last season he compiled 13.5 average finish , 4.5 average start , 16.0 average running position , 0 laps led and 79.1 driver rating. At Phoenix he finished 10th. In that race he pretty much was exactly that. I think Larson about to get hot and yes I know I been saying that for weeks. But talented drivers eventually break loose , even if the equipment isn't elite.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is surprisingly is a 3-time winner despite only 9 Top 10s and 6 Top 5s in 26 career starts. What really odd about Johnson track record is he won 3 of 4 races in 2007 and 2008 seasons. Since in 12 races , Johnson only have 4 Top 10s with one top 5 finish. It like he hit his peak way too soon at Richmond and now on a downfall. Then again the competition have significantly improved on short tracks too in the past 7 seasons. Thinking about it , Johnson never been a elite short track racer outside of Martinsville. I would save Johnson for another week.
78-Martin Truex Jr: MTjr Top 10 streak ended at 7 last week. He will look to start a new at Bristol. To be completely honest , the 78 looks much more effective on intermediate tracks this season rather than short tracks. Hard to see Truex knocking off another top 10 this week. I wouldn't rule it out , but the probability of it suggests its unlikely. Overall it hard to predict Truex's fantasy value and outcome due to lack relevant season data and past track data with the 78. Remember Truex only in his 2nd year with this team.
88-Dale Jr: Dale always seems to do well here! Last season he had finishes of 12th and 7th , but never contended in either race. He actually have finished 13th or better in 4 straight Richmond races. He been consistent , but never heavily contended in any of those races. He did lead 7 laps in this race last season , but wasn't one of the true contenders though. Gordon and the Penske cars had control more often than not. He struggled this season to finish races on lead lap. Ironically they all been on 1 mile in length or shorter.
***All stats from DriverAverages & FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
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