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Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Busts (Bristol)

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We are headed to Bristol this weekend! Short tracks in my opinion make or break our seasons! Its seems like everyone have a different strategy when selecting. Which usually depends on your league scoring and format setting. If you're near bottom of your league , then this is your opportunity to rebound! Usually Bristol is a wreckfest (or can be). Drivers will be side-by-side for 500 laps. I don't like the chances!

Sleepers -

Greg Biffle: There actually two RFR drivers who have shown potential at Bristol! The other one is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Surprisingly both ranked inside the top 10 in points scored over the previous two seasons. They have both logged around a 15.8 average running position and have done a good job of finishing the deal which is something I can live with. In general , I believe Greg is the better option. Biffle have finished inside the top 12 in the past 4 Bristol races dating back to 2013. Definitely suggests a reliable asset Biffle should be. Terms of upside , he really doesn't have any. Overall probably a top 15 option.

Paul Menard: There two ways to look at Menard this week! The first his strong track history. Such as an 11.0 average finish and 15.0 average running position with 4 Top 10s. These stats indicates he is very reliable and trustworthy. On the flip side , Menard struggled on short tracks in 2014 and didn't necessarily impress me on shorter tracks this season. Really don't have enough data to make a relevant comparison. So I will leave it at that. Also Menard have absolutely no momentum after finishes of 23rd and 41st in the past two races. Its really a judgement call on him.

Jamie McMurray: I debated who I should give the final slot to , and in the end I went with JMac! I think several drivers could make intriguing options. JMac probably brings the most upside and/or potential. Overall he is way underrated and will undoubtedly be passed up on. Since Bristol reconfiguration , Jamie have managed an 18.4 average finish , 14.0 average running position and 84.0 driver rating. Not eye popping , but his performance last season were very impressive! Trust me I know. In the spring , he ran competitively in the top 10 before finding trouble late. In the summer ,he dominated a lot of this event after the 225 lap mark. Ultimately finished 7th. However he should've won if he didn't get hung up on the wrong lane on a restart.

Busts -

Kyle Larson: There a lot to like about Larson ,in fact I wouldn't be shocked to see him win this weekend. However I haven't seen him "completely" finish a race since Phoenix's 10th place run. More noticeably , Larson have 4 finishes outside the top 25 with 2 Top 10s as well in 2015. Now there no comparable track this season. However I do believe in momentum and Larson haven't shown me is can be a legitimate threat. Even though I think Bristol really fits his style! Evidenced by last season performance and recent success in lowered level series.

Jimmie Johnson: Bristol is arguably one of Johnson worst tracks. Even if that so , Johnson still probably will contend for a top 10. Unfortunately for Johnson only have notch two top 10 since the reconfiguration in 2012. In his previous 5 attempts , Johnson have an 16.6 average finish and 14.8 average running position with 2 Top 5s. He been more hit or more than anything. Anytime he mention in the same sentence with hit or miss , its usually raise red flags. Why? Because there aren't many tracks where Johnson doesn't consistency run well at./

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