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I don't have a lot of time for this week's update and quite frankly I don't know if really matters for Kentucky. There were two test sessions scheduled for Wednesday, however they were both cancelled. As was qualifying and half of the first practice on Friday. On the plus side, we did get to see some action on the track on Friday's morning/afternoon. So it not like we are headed into the race blind, but personally I still think there a lot of unanswered questions for the teams and drivers.
A:
1. Jimmie Johnson - Honestly there probably 2 or maybe 3 who could named the number 1 guy in this tier. However I am going Jimmie Johnson. Why? Well for starters Johnson is usually one of the first ones to catch on to changes made by Nascar. It doesn't hurt that he have a very strong Kentucky record. He qualified 6th and looked solid in practice on Friday. He posted the 7th best 10-lap average in the late-afternoon practice. He may not lead the most laps or have the car to beat, but I am willing to bet he finishes up front.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Brad Keselowski - I considered Keselowski for the top spot over Johnson, but he been little inconsistent this season which makes him more of a liability than asset. Even though he arguably have one of the best cars in this weekend race. I was pretty impressive by him on Friday. Honestly I am not sure if it the aero package or Kentucky itself, but both Penske Cars are hooked up this weekend. I wouldn't be shocked to see one of them in victory lane on Saturday night.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Joey Logano - Logano will roll off from 4th on Saturday night and looked very good practice. Before finishing poorly at Daytona, he had knocked 3 straight top 5 finishes after struggling at Charlotte and Dover. In practice, Logano like teammate Brad Keselowski he could find himself in victory lane . Logano have been strong all season long on the 1.5 mile racetracks and it look like he will be strong once again on Saturday night.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Kevin Harvick - Harvick just haven't looked as good as I was expecting him to.However he is bad fast on the long run. Don't be fooled by his practice results on the speed charts. He will be at the front when it all said and done. Does he have a dominating car? Nope. But he doesn't need to be. Expect Harvick to finish inside the top 5 though. I have him across the line in 4th in my overall rankings.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
5. Kyle Busch - I debated what JGR car should be given the final spot in my rankings and in the end I went with the guy with the most to gain from this weekend in Kyle Busch. Rowdy have everything to race for and really nothing to lose. He is currently over 100 points outside of the top 30 in points. So gambling to win a race isn't out of the question for the 18 team. Truthfully I thought he was easily an top 10 car. Now I don't think he will win, but if a JGR does then it will probably be Busch. Even though his JGR teammates were pretty close to him speed wise.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
Other Options - Kenseth (6th), Gordon (7th) , Dale Jr (10th), Hamlin (11th) and Newman (14th)
B:
1. Kyle Larson - Truthfully I wanted to rank Larson lower as I enjoy giving him a higher ceiling. However I wasn't blown away by everyone. Not to say everyone else is terrible, but Larson is in my opinion was just better. He will start from 1st and looked solid all day long. Larson overall seems happy with his car and posted a lot of laps in the late afternoon session which is very encouraging. However don't go out on the limb and put all your stock into Larson. As I don't think he will back up his practice results and starting position. Even though I am probably higher than most on him.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
2. Kurt Busch - Busch finished final practice in 5th on the speed charts, but I get the sense he isn't exactly 100% happy with his car. Towards end of final practice, he said his car was going the wrong direction on the long run and complained about his balance throughout the session. Honestly I don't think there was a driver who was 100% happy with their car. Other words don't look for one car to dominate up front from start to finish. Busch should contend for a top 10 finish, but hard to say weather he can contend for a top 5. Even though his upside gives him the potential to do so.
My Overall Ranking: 9th
3. Martin Truex Jr - Truex was pretty good overall. He said his car was competitive after the shorten morning session. Hard to say how good he was in the afternoon as he didn't post many long runs, but I am willing to bet he will be strong in the race. The 78 been strong all season and I would be surprised if that changed at Kentucky. Really not sure where to rank either. Kinda wanted to rank him inside the top 10, but after back-to-back poor results. I decided to give him some room for error!
My Overall Ranking: 12th
4. Kasey Kahne -I am really mixed on Kahne this week. Part of me thinks he will have one of his best races of the season and the other half screams to avoid him as he will be a big old busted. He seemed to have a pretty good car by end of happy hour. But his speed didn't exactly standout either. Honestly I think there better tracks to use him, but we only have 18 races left. So why not take a shot with the 5 this week? Honestly I think his big issue will be finding his way to the front.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
5. Carl Edwards -Edwards is like a tainted candy bar. You know it bad for you, but you open it up and eat always. Even though you know you will feel the effects later. Trust me we all have eaten the Edwards bar at some point or another this season. However he looked like the worst Gibbs car this weekend, so that tainted Edwards bar might deliver you to the promise land (remember Charlotte). Or my personal favorite the crapper. Based on his performance this season, I am willing to bet he finishes somewhere inside the top 15. Even though he will probably hover in the top 10 before fading down the ladder. Because that is your typical Carl Edwards race.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
Other Options - Jamie Mac (16th) , Paul Menard (17th) , Austin Dillon (18th) , Greg Biffle (19th) and Aric Almirola (20th)
C:
1. Danica Patrick - Yeah I have absolutely no faith in this tier. This is probably the thinnest group drivers we have dealt with all season long , so no surprise Danica Patrick is miles ahead of everyone. She was pretty good all day long and is probably good enough to finish around 20th. If she plays her hand right, then she might sneak away with a finish closer to the top 15. But I think that is unlikely though. Expect a finish from 18th-24th place range.
My Overall Ranking: 21st
2. David Ragan - Ragan isn't anything special, but he should good enough for 2nd best in this tier of drivers. Truthfully both the MWR cars sucks. I was expecting more out of both of them, but I am not really expecting anything more than top 25 finishes. Some weeks Ragan will look really good and other he will look like he still at Front Row. Either way I wasn't super high on him as he been a test crash dummy this season on this type track.
My Overall Ranking: 25th
3. Justin Allaiger - Yeah I am not real sure if Justin deserves a spot on my rankings, but there really nobody else that is even close to relevant. He struggled for the most part and ran around 30th in practice. I think he can run better than that, but I doubt it much better though. If I had to guess it would be 25th is his ceiling. If he can finish 25th, then you stole some fantasy value. Realistically I think he finishes around 27th or 28th been all said and done. The 51 team will be much better on the shorter and slower tracks.
My Overall Ranking: 28th
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