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Saturday, October 03, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Update (Dover)

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1. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson will roll off from the 5th starting position! I think you could rank anywhere in the top 3 But considering his track record and how well he have been running lately, I definitely could see him back in victory lane. He been running much better of late and could have his breakout performance of the chase at his best racetrack! It would be very hard for me to leave him off my fantasy lineup with him starting near the front. For the record, 3 of the past 4 races at Dover he have started 5th or better have ended in wins! With limited practice this week, I think his experience at Dover will come into play and it might get him other win at the Monster!

My Overall Ranking: 1st

2. Joey Logano - He have never won here, but I think that could change very soon though. He have a strong track record (13.6 average finish) and this is one of his favorite racetracks. Ever since debuting at Dover, he have ran well. In 13 career starts, he have put together 8 top 10 finishes. Which is his highest top 10 percentage of any track on the schedule! He been even better most recently with 7 straight top 11 finishes and 6 of them ending inside the top 10. What sets Joey Logano apart from the rest is he been the most consistent driver this season. In 28 races this season, he have 17 top 5 finishes and 22 Top 10 finishes! Logano didn't standout in practice on Saturday, but he looks to have a solid car. That usually leads to good things for Logano!

My Overall Ranking: 2nd

3. Matt Kenseth -Kenseth made a case for the top two spots, but in the end I like Logano and Johnson a little more. I think Kenseth will hold his own and contend for the race win. What hurts him is he been bit more inconsistent of late at Dover with 3 top 7 finishes and 3 finishes outside of the top 30. Despite the fact he been fast every time since joining JGR, he haven't always gotten the results. However I really like Kenseth and think he could potentially win, but most of the heavy Dover hitters are starting up front with him. If he goes to victory lane again this weekend, then he would have definitely earned it!

My Overall Ranking: 3rd

4. Kevin Harvick - I probably should have ranked him higher, but he haven't had any good finishes lately. However in practice he looks to have the best car! Harvick will roll off from 15th and needs to win to advance to the next round. I wouldn't be shocked to see him do it, but I have a feeling he will come up short. Personally I hope he goes out and win it! However that doesn't mean he will. I think a lot will have to go right and I am not sure if it will. Harvick undoubtedly have a very fast car and most likely the man to beat in the race! Crazy stat of the day: Kevin Harvick haven't won since 4th race of the season. I think Harvick will make top 5 fantasy, but I think he comes up a few spots short. Despite a very strong effort in doing so!

My Overall Ranking: 4th

5. Carl Edwards - Trying to get a read on Carl Edwards in practice is difficult, so this week it is even tougher! I do think Edwards have a lot to offer from a fantasy vantage. He haven't gotten the results at Dover lately, but he was once one of the best drivers in the series at this place. I think it only a matter of time before he breaks out of his slump. I think it will be sooner rather than later though. He will start from 3rd and could be in for another top 5 finish. Given the recent JGR trend that's the likely outcome for fantasy players who employ him! He was pretty fast on Saturday!

My Overall Ranking: 5th

6. Denny Hamlin - I have mixed feelings towards Denny Hamlin! Regardless how I feel towards him, I think it would be hard for him to finish outside of the top 10 at Dover. JGR have all the momentum and should be able to place all of their cars inside the top 10 this week. The one thing that standout about him is his track record is very unimpressive! Over the past 16 races at Dover, he have only recorded four (4) top 10 finishes. Hard to ignore a stat like that, isn't it? I think he adds to his top 10 total, but I wouldn't count on a top 5 finish. Then again I wasn't high on him at Chicagoland or New Hampshire, and look where it got him!

My Overall Ranking: 6th

7. Brad Keselowski - It have been very tough to give Keselowski a decent ranking where he have lived up to. So I have learned to give Keselowski a higher-ceiling, unless he simply looks capable of dominating ( or close to it.) We didn't see much practice this weekend, so I went the high-ceiling route. Keselowski should be a top 10 driver all day and challenge for a top 5 before the checkers waves. Realistically I don't know what to expect from him. One week he challenging for the race win and the next he barely can finish inside the top 10. I think ranking him 7th is pretty reasonable!

My Overall Ranking: 7th

8. Kyle Busch - Busch should be ranked much higher, but he starting deeper in the field than I would have like. Even though 13th or 14th isn't a terrible spot, It's isn't a idea starting position when we are talking about Rowdy. Also I think he can add in his inconsistency at Dover of late is a little concerning! Over the past 7 races, only 4 of them have Kyle finished. The other three races have ended in 29th, 36th and 42nd. They were of course for issues beyond his control. He have finished inside the top 10 when he have finished on the lead lap, so that is very encouraging! I think he finishes least inside the top 10 and that all he really need to do to advance to round 2 of the chase as well.

My Overall Ranking: 8th

9. Jeff Gordon - Gordon will race at the Monster Mile for the final time in his impressive career! He will roll off from the 9th starting position and will try to find his way to the front. I don't get the sense he will win, but anything could happen though. He will most likely be a top 10 finisher once again like he have been most of the 2015 season. This have been a very kind racetrack to Gordon over the years with 5 career wins and 18 Top 5 finishes in 45 career starts.


My Overall Ranking: 9th

10. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch is coming off a disappointing finish at New Hampshire and will roll off from inside the top 10 at Dover. He been inconsistent lately, but he will have the potential to finish somewhere in the top 10 like he does on most weeks. My only big concern is his lack of production at Dover over the past 20 races. In that span, he have only recorded 4 top 10 finishes. I am not too worried about it though. Long as he stay out of trouble, I think he will be fine! He had speed in both sessions on Saturday.

My Overall Ranking: 10th


11. Dale Jr - Dale Jr is a bit down the list this week, but he should outproduce this ranking by a few spots though. He will start from inside the top 15 at Dover and should be able to move up through the field, but I am not too sure if he will have the speed to contend for a top 5 finish. Based his recent performances this season (more specially in the chase.) You expect him to be borderline top 10 driver with the potential to finish inside the top 8.

My Overall Ranking: 11th

12. Martin Truex Jr - Truex will take the final spot in my rankings this week! He should have won this race back in May after leading 131 laps of 400. He will now get another shot at winning Dover.  He will have more work to do as he is starting deeper in the top 10 than he did in May. Also I feel like he isn't as fast as he was back then. However I am not too worried as the 78 car been pretty fast week-in and week-out. I think Truex is a top 12 driver with a lot of potential to finish in the top 10. His up and down results hurt him in the overall rankings though.

My Overall Ranking: 12th

13. Kyle Larson
14. Ryan Newman
15. Kasey Kahne
16. Jamie McMurray
17. Clint Bowyer
18. Paul Menard
19. Austin Dillon
20. Aric Almirola

Twitter - @JeffNathans