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1-Jamie Mac: JMac is putting together a pretty nice chase! Few weeks ago at Martinsville (another shorter flat track), he had one of the strongest performances of the season. I don't think he will back it up, but he have had some nice runs at Phoenix, too. Earlier this season, he started 3rd , finished 3rd and posted 112.1 driver rating. He was easily a top 10 driver for that entire race and hung around the top 5. When the time came, he made his move. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 13.2 average finish, 16.0 average start, 13.6 average running position and 86.7 driver rating. Over his past 4 races at PIR, he have finished 18th or better in race. More importantly, he have finishes of 14th, 10th and 2nd since start of last season. The shorter-flats fits Jamie's style more in my opinion, so don't be shocked by his solid efforts on them. 2nd at Phoenix, 2nd at Martinsville, and 4th at Richmond this season. See a trend developing?
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski may have blown his chance at advancing in the chase and he now will have to win at Phoenix. A track where he have never been to victory lane at. A track where his best finish is 3rd at. Kevin Harvick was in a similar situation at Dover. Wonder if the results will be similar? Earlier this season, he finished 6th. He probably was the 2nd-best driver and one of the few to lead more one lap. In fact he led 52 laps that day on his way to a 6th place finish. I believe Penske have improved a lot since then and they will give Brad a bad fast Ford on Sunday. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 5.6 average finish, 6.4 average start, 5.8 average running position and 115.6 driver rating. This could be considered Brad's best track since joining Penske. In 12 career starts, he have 10 Top 20 finishes. More impressively, he have finished 6 of the past 7 races inside the top 6 (dating back to start of 2012 season), and only race he didn't finished inside the top 6 was 11th in 2013. Including 3 straight top 6 finishes with a best of 3rd coming last season in the spring. That's the good, so what is the bad? Well he have finished better in the spring races than the fall races. In 6 fall races, he have finished outside of the top 10 in 4 of them. Luckily he have finished 4th and 6th in past two of three fall races. Keselowski also been very solid on the shorter-flats this season! He have posted 9.0 average finish with 5.0 average running position and 115.4 driver rating.
3-Austin Dillon: It's hard to judge Austin Dillon with only three career starts, but he have proven he can run well on this type racetrack. Earlier this season he finished 15th which was by far his best finish and best performance in his Cup career. Other than that there a lot of unknowns about Austin Dillon. For now, he is nothing more than a top 20 driver. We will know more after practice and qualifying.
4-Kevin Harvick: Kevin Harvick is not only a favorite, but a heavy favorite to win Sunday's race at Phoenix! He was dominated earlier this season and went to victory lane from the pole. In that race he led 224 laps to en route to his 4th straight win at the 1-mile racetrack. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 3.4 average finish, 6.6 average start, 3.4 average running position and 139.8 driver rating. Harvick simply is the best pick this week. He have won 5 of the past 6 races dating back to the 2012 season. In fact he have finished 6th or better in 8 of the past 10 races, with 6 Top 2 finishes (5 wins and a 2nd place finish.) Since joining SHR, Harvick have turned into a completely new animal at this track. He have won in every start, led least 224 laps in every start, and about 150.0 driver rating during that span. Yeah he is pretty damn good! He also have had some strong runs on the shorter-flats tracks this season/ He have posted 8.2 average finish with 4.8 average running position and 124.0 driver rating. He have scored the 3rd-most points on this type track.
5-Kasey Kahne: I was disappointed in Kahne at Texas, I thought he had more in him than 20th place. Oh well that what you get with Kasey Kahne. They don't call him the most inconsistent driver in the series for nothing, do they? Earlier this season, Kasey finished 4th in this race. But he wasn't quite that good. He was about a top 10 driver to top 15 driver I would say. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.4 average finish, 10.2 average start, 12.6 average running position and 92.9 driver rating. He been up and down since joining HMS. He have 3 top 4 finishes (since his 2012 debut with HMS), but he also have 4 finishes outside of the top 10. Including finishes of 11th, 19th, 21st and 34th. Positive news? 2 of his three Top 4 finishes have came in the past 3 fall races at Phoenix. His other top 4 finish came back here in March. Kasey also been pretty solid on the shorter flats this season. He have posted 11.2 average finish with 12.6 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. He should be considered a top 15 fantasy option headed into the weekend!
11-Denny Hamlin: Tough weekend at Texas for Denny Hamlin, but he could get back on track at Phoenix though. Earlier this season, he wasn't very competitive and finished 28th. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.6 average finish, 9.6 average start, 16.8 average running position and 78.6 driver rating. He been a bit inconsistent since the start of the 2012 season. He have 4 Top 5 finishes, including a win back in 2012. He also have finishes of 28th, 19th and 23rd. All three of those finishes have came in the past 4 races at Phoenix for Hamlin. So he will need better luck this Sunday! He been decent on the shorter-flats this season though. He have posted 13.4 average finish with 13.6 average running position and 78.6 driver rating. He haven't been great on this type track, but his performance have greatly improved during the chase. Early in the season, I felt like he struggled to finish well (23rd at Phoenix and 22nd at Richmond.) In the chase it been a different story with finishes of 2nd and 6th at Richmond and New Hampshire.
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch really haven't had a bad race in the chase yet (minus that one wreck early on), and that a big reason why he haven't had to go out and win. He can lock up his championship ticket to Homestead by simply finishing inside the top 10 on Sunday. I expect him to go for the win though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.3 average finish, 5.3 average start, 15.8 average running position and 83.5 driver rating. Busch haven't had many great races with JGR at Phoenix, but he haven't many bad ones either. In 14 starts with JGR, he have finished 17th or better in 11 of them. Including 8 Top 10 finishes. In fact, he have finished 4 of the past 6 races at Phoenix inside the top 10. Solid!
19-Carl Edwards: I been trying to figure out Carl Edwards all season and just when I think I am starting to, he goes out and make me look like a fool. So whatever I say about Edwards, you better go and do the complete opposite. Earlier this season, Edwards wasn't too bad but was nothing more than a teen-type driver and finished 13th. JGR was still trying to find speed early in the season, so I wouldn't put too much into that performance. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.6 average finish, 16.2 average start, 10.2 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. Edwards always been decent at Phoenix for the most part. Only twice have he finished worse than 17th since the 2008 season. I like Edwards a lot this week, but I would like him more, if he was in a better position in the points though. He currently is about 6 points out and that could be hard to overcome without some help from his competitors. On the shorter-flats this season, he have posted 11.0 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 92.0 driver rating. He's easily a top 10 play this week!
22-Joey Logano: Logano is in a must-win situation now after back-to-back finishes outside of the top 35. Earlier this season, he was very strong at Phoenix. He started on the front row and finished 8th. He led 35 laps in that race for though that are wondering. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 10.6 average finish, 8.6 average start, 8.6 average running position and 104.4 driver rating. Logano is currently on a 4-race steak of top 10 finishes. In that span, he only have one top 5 finish though. He also been one of the strongest drivers on the shorter-flats. He have posted 4.6 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 113.4 driver rating. I think Logano will be a top 5 driver, but I don't think he wins though. There still practice and qualifying to change my mind though.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is already locked into the championship round at Homestead, so it will be interesting to see how he attacks it this week. Earlier this season, he finished 9th. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 7.8 average finish, 8.8 average start, 8.2 average running position and 105.9 driver rating. Gordon have been a consistent driver at Phoenix with 4 top 10 finishes in his past 5 races. His two wins came in 2011 and 2007. After his 2011 win (8 races ago), he only have 2 top 5 finishes though. On the plus side, 5 of his past 8 races have ended inside the top 10. I think Gordon is a top 10 play headed into the weekend. On shorter-flats this season, he have posted 8.0 average finish with 10.4 average running position and 97.5 driver rating.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is coming off an 7th place run at Texas and will need to win at Phoenix on Sunday! Earlier this season, he finished 5th. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 16.6 average finish, 12.2 average start, 10.0 average running position and 96.5 driver rating. In that 5 race span, he have put together 3 top 10 finishes. Including back-to-back top 10 finishes of 5th and 7th. In fact, 4 of the past 6 races he have finished inside the top 10. With 6 of the past 10 races ending inside the top 10. Looking deeper in the stats, I would say this is one of Kurt's best track from a career point of view. Only at Kentucky and ACS does he have better average finish. At the shorter flats in 2015, he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 6.2 average running position and 112.8 driver rating.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is cursed or something this season! Seriously! How he could manage to have three blown tires in two races! He should have won the NXS race and probably should have finished inside the top 5 in the Cup race. Earlier this season, he finished 10th at Phoenix. In 3 career starts, Larson have compiled 14.3 average finish, 9.3 average start, 12.3 average running position and 89.2 driver rating. He been equally solid on the shorter flats racetracks. He have posted 16.4 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 83.1 driver rating. Truthfully I think Larson best days are ahead of him. However I think that will come in 2016 though.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson is coming off a win at Texas. Earlier this season, Johnson finished 11th at Phoenix. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 12.2 average finish, 8.6 average start, 10.0 average running position and 103.5 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have finished 3 of those 5 races inside the top 6. I felt like Johnson was at his peak at Phoenix before the repave was done. Now he is more of a hit or miss type driver. I think as time goes on, he will slowly rise to the top once again. However I don't know if it will be anytime soon though. On shorter flats racetracks this season, he have posted 10.2 average finish with 12.4 average running position and 95.7 driver rating.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr is coming off a top 10 finish at Texas and looks to lock his ticket to the championship round at Homestead. He finished 7th earlier this season. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 17.0 average finish, 16.0 average start, 17.8 average running position and 82.7 driver rating. Over the past 4 races, he have finished 12th or better in 3 races. In fact, he have finished 12th or better in 4 of the past 7 races. However he also have three finishes of 22nd, 36th and 43rd. Overall Truex have finished 15th or better 6 of his past 10 races dating back to 2010 with MWR. On shorter flats this season, he have posted 13.8 average finish with 15.4 average running position and 89.3 driver rating. I think he is least top 10 driver headed into Sunday's race.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is coming off a very strange Texas race where he was able to find a decent finish somehow. Earlier this season, he finished 43rd at Phoenix. I believe had a tire go down and hit the wall. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 12.4 average finish, 13.8 average start, 12.6 average running position and 100.3 driver rating. Before wrecking earlier this season here, he have finished 4 straight in the top 8. Honestly outside of those 4 races, he haven't really done much since joining HMS. He been decent on shorter flats this season. He have posted 18.4 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 89.2 driver rating. I am not really high on Dale Jr, but he nothing better than a top 10 fantasy option in my opinion.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Preview-
1-Jamie Mac: JMac is putting together a pretty nice chase! Few weeks ago at Martinsville (another shorter flat track), he had one of the strongest performances of the season. I don't think he will back it up, but he have had some nice runs at Phoenix, too. Earlier this season, he started 3rd , finished 3rd and posted 112.1 driver rating. He was easily a top 10 driver for that entire race and hung around the top 5. When the time came, he made his move. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 13.2 average finish, 16.0 average start, 13.6 average running position and 86.7 driver rating. Over his past 4 races at PIR, he have finished 18th or better in race. More importantly, he have finishes of 14th, 10th and 2nd since start of last season. The shorter-flats fits Jamie's style more in my opinion, so don't be shocked by his solid efforts on them. 2nd at Phoenix, 2nd at Martinsville, and 4th at Richmond this season. See a trend developing?
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski may have blown his chance at advancing in the chase and he now will have to win at Phoenix. A track where he have never been to victory lane at. A track where his best finish is 3rd at. Kevin Harvick was in a similar situation at Dover. Wonder if the results will be similar? Earlier this season, he finished 6th. He probably was the 2nd-best driver and one of the few to lead more one lap. In fact he led 52 laps that day on his way to a 6th place finish. I believe Penske have improved a lot since then and they will give Brad a bad fast Ford on Sunday. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 5.6 average finish, 6.4 average start, 5.8 average running position and 115.6 driver rating. This could be considered Brad's best track since joining Penske. In 12 career starts, he have 10 Top 20 finishes. More impressively, he have finished 6 of the past 7 races inside the top 6 (dating back to start of 2012 season), and only race he didn't finished inside the top 6 was 11th in 2013. Including 3 straight top 6 finishes with a best of 3rd coming last season in the spring. That's the good, so what is the bad? Well he have finished better in the spring races than the fall races. In 6 fall races, he have finished outside of the top 10 in 4 of them. Luckily he have finished 4th and 6th in past two of three fall races. Keselowski also been very solid on the shorter-flats this season! He have posted 9.0 average finish with 5.0 average running position and 115.4 driver rating.
3-Austin Dillon: It's hard to judge Austin Dillon with only three career starts, but he have proven he can run well on this type racetrack. Earlier this season he finished 15th which was by far his best finish and best performance in his Cup career. Other than that there a lot of unknowns about Austin Dillon. For now, he is nothing more than a top 20 driver. We will know more after practice and qualifying.
4-Kevin Harvick: Kevin Harvick is not only a favorite, but a heavy favorite to win Sunday's race at Phoenix! He was dominated earlier this season and went to victory lane from the pole. In that race he led 224 laps to en route to his 4th straight win at the 1-mile racetrack. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 3.4 average finish, 6.6 average start, 3.4 average running position and 139.8 driver rating. Harvick simply is the best pick this week. He have won 5 of the past 6 races dating back to the 2012 season. In fact he have finished 6th or better in 8 of the past 10 races, with 6 Top 2 finishes (5 wins and a 2nd place finish.) Since joining SHR, Harvick have turned into a completely new animal at this track. He have won in every start, led least 224 laps in every start, and about 150.0 driver rating during that span. Yeah he is pretty damn good! He also have had some strong runs on the shorter-flats tracks this season/ He have posted 8.2 average finish with 4.8 average running position and 124.0 driver rating. He have scored the 3rd-most points on this type track.
5-Kasey Kahne: I was disappointed in Kahne at Texas, I thought he had more in him than 20th place. Oh well that what you get with Kasey Kahne. They don't call him the most inconsistent driver in the series for nothing, do they? Earlier this season, Kasey finished 4th in this race. But he wasn't quite that good. He was about a top 10 driver to top 15 driver I would say. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.4 average finish, 10.2 average start, 12.6 average running position and 92.9 driver rating. He been up and down since joining HMS. He have 3 top 4 finishes (since his 2012 debut with HMS), but he also have 4 finishes outside of the top 10. Including finishes of 11th, 19th, 21st and 34th. Positive news? 2 of his three Top 4 finishes have came in the past 3 fall races at Phoenix. His other top 4 finish came back here in March. Kasey also been pretty solid on the shorter flats this season. He have posted 11.2 average finish with 12.6 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. He should be considered a top 15 fantasy option headed into the weekend!
11-Denny Hamlin: Tough weekend at Texas for Denny Hamlin, but he could get back on track at Phoenix though. Earlier this season, he wasn't very competitive and finished 28th. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.6 average finish, 9.6 average start, 16.8 average running position and 78.6 driver rating. He been a bit inconsistent since the start of the 2012 season. He have 4 Top 5 finishes, including a win back in 2012. He also have finishes of 28th, 19th and 23rd. All three of those finishes have came in the past 4 races at Phoenix for Hamlin. So he will need better luck this Sunday! He been decent on the shorter-flats this season though. He have posted 13.4 average finish with 13.6 average running position and 78.6 driver rating. He haven't been great on this type track, but his performance have greatly improved during the chase. Early in the season, I felt like he struggled to finish well (23rd at Phoenix and 22nd at Richmond.) In the chase it been a different story with finishes of 2nd and 6th at Richmond and New Hampshire.
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch really haven't had a bad race in the chase yet (minus that one wreck early on), and that a big reason why he haven't had to go out and win. He can lock up his championship ticket to Homestead by simply finishing inside the top 10 on Sunday. I expect him to go for the win though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.3 average finish, 5.3 average start, 15.8 average running position and 83.5 driver rating. Busch haven't had many great races with JGR at Phoenix, but he haven't many bad ones either. In 14 starts with JGR, he have finished 17th or better in 11 of them. Including 8 Top 10 finishes. In fact, he have finished 4 of the past 6 races at Phoenix inside the top 10. Solid!
19-Carl Edwards: I been trying to figure out Carl Edwards all season and just when I think I am starting to, he goes out and make me look like a fool. So whatever I say about Edwards, you better go and do the complete opposite. Earlier this season, Edwards wasn't too bad but was nothing more than a teen-type driver and finished 13th. JGR was still trying to find speed early in the season, so I wouldn't put too much into that performance. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.6 average finish, 16.2 average start, 10.2 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. Edwards always been decent at Phoenix for the most part. Only twice have he finished worse than 17th since the 2008 season. I like Edwards a lot this week, but I would like him more, if he was in a better position in the points though. He currently is about 6 points out and that could be hard to overcome without some help from his competitors. On the shorter-flats this season, he have posted 11.0 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 92.0 driver rating. He's easily a top 10 play this week!
22-Joey Logano: Logano is in a must-win situation now after back-to-back finishes outside of the top 35. Earlier this season, he was very strong at Phoenix. He started on the front row and finished 8th. He led 35 laps in that race for though that are wondering. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 10.6 average finish, 8.6 average start, 8.6 average running position and 104.4 driver rating. Logano is currently on a 4-race steak of top 10 finishes. In that span, he only have one top 5 finish though. He also been one of the strongest drivers on the shorter-flats. He have posted 4.6 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 113.4 driver rating. I think Logano will be a top 5 driver, but I don't think he wins though. There still practice and qualifying to change my mind though.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is already locked into the championship round at Homestead, so it will be interesting to see how he attacks it this week. Earlier this season, he finished 9th. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 7.8 average finish, 8.8 average start, 8.2 average running position and 105.9 driver rating. Gordon have been a consistent driver at Phoenix with 4 top 10 finishes in his past 5 races. His two wins came in 2011 and 2007. After his 2011 win (8 races ago), he only have 2 top 5 finishes though. On the plus side, 5 of his past 8 races have ended inside the top 10. I think Gordon is a top 10 play headed into the weekend. On shorter-flats this season, he have posted 8.0 average finish with 10.4 average running position and 97.5 driver rating.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is coming off an 7th place run at Texas and will need to win at Phoenix on Sunday! Earlier this season, he finished 5th. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 16.6 average finish, 12.2 average start, 10.0 average running position and 96.5 driver rating. In that 5 race span, he have put together 3 top 10 finishes. Including back-to-back top 10 finishes of 5th and 7th. In fact, 4 of the past 6 races he have finished inside the top 10. With 6 of the past 10 races ending inside the top 10. Looking deeper in the stats, I would say this is one of Kurt's best track from a career point of view. Only at Kentucky and ACS does he have better average finish. At the shorter flats in 2015, he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 6.2 average running position and 112.8 driver rating.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is cursed or something this season! Seriously! How he could manage to have three blown tires in two races! He should have won the NXS race and probably should have finished inside the top 5 in the Cup race. Earlier this season, he finished 10th at Phoenix. In 3 career starts, Larson have compiled 14.3 average finish, 9.3 average start, 12.3 average running position and 89.2 driver rating. He been equally solid on the shorter flats racetracks. He have posted 16.4 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 83.1 driver rating. Truthfully I think Larson best days are ahead of him. However I think that will come in 2016 though.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson is coming off a win at Texas. Earlier this season, Johnson finished 11th at Phoenix. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 12.2 average finish, 8.6 average start, 10.0 average running position and 103.5 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have finished 3 of those 5 races inside the top 6. I felt like Johnson was at his peak at Phoenix before the repave was done. Now he is more of a hit or miss type driver. I think as time goes on, he will slowly rise to the top once again. However I don't know if it will be anytime soon though. On shorter flats racetracks this season, he have posted 10.2 average finish with 12.4 average running position and 95.7 driver rating.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr is coming off a top 10 finish at Texas and looks to lock his ticket to the championship round at Homestead. He finished 7th earlier this season. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 17.0 average finish, 16.0 average start, 17.8 average running position and 82.7 driver rating. Over the past 4 races, he have finished 12th or better in 3 races. In fact, he have finished 12th or better in 4 of the past 7 races. However he also have three finishes of 22nd, 36th and 43rd. Overall Truex have finished 15th or better 6 of his past 10 races dating back to 2010 with MWR. On shorter flats this season, he have posted 13.8 average finish with 15.4 average running position and 89.3 driver rating. I think he is least top 10 driver headed into Sunday's race.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is coming off a very strange Texas race where he was able to find a decent finish somehow. Earlier this season, he finished 43rd at Phoenix. I believe had a tire go down and hit the wall. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 12.4 average finish, 13.8 average start, 12.6 average running position and 100.3 driver rating. Before wrecking earlier this season here, he have finished 4 straight in the top 8. Honestly outside of those 4 races, he haven't really done much since joining HMS. He been decent on shorter flats this season. He have posted 18.4 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 89.2 driver rating. I am not really high on Dale Jr, but he nothing better than a top 10 fantasy option in my opinion.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans