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We are headed to Pheonix Raceway this weekend for the 35th race of the 2015 Nascar season! There will be a lot on the line in Sunday's race. Not only will 7 Cup Series drivers battle it out for the final three spots in the chase. But year-long fantasy leagues could be won and lost and outcome of Sunday's race will likely have a major impact on that. Personally I hate Phoenix since the repave. It's even harder to pass on and makes track position very important. In the end, track position could very well decides who advances to the championship round at Homestead. There was two practices on Saturday, addition to Friday's lone practice session and qualifying. So who should you select to your fantasy lineup? I gave it some thoughts and here how I feel like the field stacks up!
Today I am setting up the Update a bit differently than usual. Instead of formatting intoYahoo Fantasy Racing setup (A,B and C grouping), I have decided to widen my preferences this week. As in today's format, I have overall ranked the best 12 drivers headed into Sunday's race. Of course these ranks are based off my personal preferences such as qualifying, practice, track history, consistency, personal thoughts, etc not just who potentially have the best shot to win. Check out Kate's Rankings for that, if you are looking for prediction finishing order. You can find that on the homepage.
1. Kevin Harvick - I don't think anyone in their right minds could pick anyone over Kevin Harvick with confidences. He simply been dominant since the repave in 2011. He have won 5 of the past 6 races and looking for 5 straight wins on Sunday. He was fast on Friday and qualified 8th. He followed that up with a pair of solid practices on Saturday. That pretty much confirmed what we already knew that he would be one of the heavy favorites to win. I believe once the 4 get the lead, he will check out on the competition. In my opinion, Harvick and Phoenix is the most sure-thing combo in Nascar at the moment. Until someone steps up and knock him off here, I still consider him the man!
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Kurt Busch - I believe Kurt Busch is Harvick's biggest competition when the green waves. I would not be shocked if Harvick gives Busch one, given they are running 1-2 with a few to go. Then again, he might not. Regardless I believe the 41 car is fast enough to beat his teammate. Kurt have been fast in everything this weekend. No suprise either! Earlier this season, he probably had the 2nd-best car to only Kevin Harvick. A late race gamble didn't pay off and still managed a solid effort. Like teammate Kevin Harvick, he have a stout track record here. I consider this his best racetrack on the schedule! Kurt will roll off from 2nd on Sunday. Don't be shocked to see him lead laps early on.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson will roll off from the pole position on Sunday and should contend for the win as well. Johnson use to dominate this place and then they repaved it. Since then, he have not really contended for wins on a consistent basis. Don't get me wrong, he have been strong but not good enough to win. He was fast on Saturday and that is very encouraging when we look at fantasy picks. He have track position to start, the best pit stall and speed. Great things to have at this racetrack. Jimmie biggest flaw during the chase have been bad luck. He been fastest week in and week out since Chicagoland. I believe the 48 will contend for least a top 5 finish, if not more!
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Carl Edwards - Edwards should be a very strong fantasy option for those of you looking for someone under the radar during the chase. The driver of the 19 car been very happy with his car all weekend. Edwards qualified very well and practiced just as good, if not better on Saturday. This seems to be one of his favorite tracks on the schedule and I would be disappointed with anything less than a top 10 finish. As you can see, I am a bit more optimist about his chances. I believe he can finish inside the top 5 on Sunday. Of course consistency during the chase and track record helped volt him into my top 5. Realistically I think he is more a top 10 play. However the numbers say he will have a good shot at the top 5, too.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
5. Joey Logano - Logano must win or go home on Sunday. He did not qualify very well on Friday though. He will roll off from the 14th starting position, but he showed some speed on Saturday. However I don't think it was enough to say he is a winning threat. Logano was consistent for most of the season, but these past two races he have became a liability. Personally I am staying away from him in my fantasy lineups. He considered a top-tier driver, so we expect top-tier results. My concern with him is he will try too hard to win Sunday's race and that may cost him a solid finish. Either way I think Logano is boarderline top 5 fantasy pick headed into Sunday's race, after taking all of the factors into consideration.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
6. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski will start even further back than teammate Joey Logano. I also get the feeling, he have less speed than Logano based off the lap times I seen in practice between the two drivers. I would never count out Keselowski and I would not be shocked if that team took extra risks to potentially win Sunday's race. Based on what I know right now, I would say he is probably in for a top 10 finish. There few things that will hurt Keselowski in the race. One of them would be starting from the 18th position. Not only will he have a hard time finding the front of the field. He also doesn't the luxury of a top pit stall like the guys starting up front. At Phoenix, I believe having a great pit stall is as important as having a fast car.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
7. Kyle Busch - I debated weather or not to rank Kyle 5th or 7th as it was that close in my opinion. Outside of the top two or three drivers, I believe it wide open. Kyle will roll off from the 10th starting position on Sunday. He should easily finish in the top 10 and have enough upside to finish in the top 5. The different between a top 5 and top 10 will likely be how well the 18 team make adjustments and contain track position. Personally I don't think Kyle will win and if he can make it on points, I am sure he will take it Based on practice, look for him to run in the 5th-8th place range most of the day.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
8. Dale Jr - Dale Jr is quietly having a great weekend and have a fast car for Sunday's race. He qualified very well and should be in for least a top 10 finish. I think more people would have taken more serious, if he still was in contention for the championship. Oh well, more fantasy value for me! Seriously I do believe Dale Jr will be a legit contender for the win on Sunday. Only reason I ranked him so low is he haven't performed that well during the chase and that a red flag to me. Not to mention, he have struggled to finish well on the short-flat racetracks this season. Based on practice, I would say was about a top 5 guy after final practice.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
9. Martin Truex Jr - Truex is having a nice chase and is now in a position to race himself into the championship round on points. I think he least needs to finish inside the top 7 to advance. More realistically, I think he will probably have to finish inside the top 5. Just depends how the guys behind him does. Truex qualified very well in 4th place and showed solid speed in both practices on Saturday. He should finish in the top 10 and have upside to finish in the top 5, but I wouldn't bank on it though.Truex have turned into a consistent driver during the chase and will likely be why he is battling for the championship at Homestead.
Given he advances that is!
My Overall Ranking: 9th
10. Kyle Larson - My dark horse this weekend is the driver of the No.42 Target car and that is Kyle Larson! He had a rocket last weekend at Texas and probably had a top 3 car easily, before tire issues doomed him. Guess the 42 team liked running up front, so they came to Phoenix with another fast piece. Larson qualified 6th and looked to be one of the quicker guys in practice at times. If he could finish out a race for once, I would probably have ranked him ahead of few more drivers. For some reason, Kyle cannot finish out races this season. Will Phoenix be any different? I sure hope so!
My Overall Ranking: 10th
11. Jeff Gordon - Gordon haven't really been that impressive this weekend, but I expect him to finish around the 10th finishing position. He have decent long run speed, but nothing that says he will contend for a top 5 finish or a win though. I don't expect anything beyond the top 10, so his upside is limited in most formats. On the plus side, he is locked into the next round. So he should be able to gamble, if he needs to during the race.
My Overall Ranking: 11th
12. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin will round out the rankings this week! Hamlin qualified 13th for Sunday's race and should contend for least a top 15 finish. This season, it seems like he top 7 or nothing. That alone worries me a bit. He have became more consistent during the chase and could be a solid sleeper pick late in the race. He showed solid speed in Saturday practice sessions and if he is in position late in the race, I believe that 11 team could be in for a top 10 or so finish. Honestly I am not really feeling him this week. In my opinion, he have lost some fantasy value since being eliminated from the championship. He still getting solid finishes here and there with JGR, but cannot really trust him when his teammates are battling for a championship. Not saying he cannot get the finishes, just saying he isn't a top priority.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
We are headed to Pheonix Raceway this weekend for the 35th race of the 2015 Nascar season! There will be a lot on the line in Sunday's race. Not only will 7 Cup Series drivers battle it out for the final three spots in the chase. But year-long fantasy leagues could be won and lost and outcome of Sunday's race will likely have a major impact on that. Personally I hate Phoenix since the repave. It's even harder to pass on and makes track position very important. In the end, track position could very well decides who advances to the championship round at Homestead. There was two practices on Saturday, addition to Friday's lone practice session and qualifying. So who should you select to your fantasy lineup? I gave it some thoughts and here how I feel like the field stacks up!
Today I am setting up the Update a bit differently than usual. Instead of formatting intoYahoo Fantasy Racing setup (A,B and C grouping), I have decided to widen my preferences this week. As in today's format, I have overall ranked the best 12 drivers headed into Sunday's race. Of course these ranks are based off my personal preferences such as qualifying, practice, track history, consistency, personal thoughts, etc not just who potentially have the best shot to win. Check out Kate's Rankings for that, if you are looking for prediction finishing order. You can find that on the homepage.
1. Kevin Harvick - I don't think anyone in their right minds could pick anyone over Kevin Harvick with confidences. He simply been dominant since the repave in 2011. He have won 5 of the past 6 races and looking for 5 straight wins on Sunday. He was fast on Friday and qualified 8th. He followed that up with a pair of solid practices on Saturday. That pretty much confirmed what we already knew that he would be one of the heavy favorites to win. I believe once the 4 get the lead, he will check out on the competition. In my opinion, Harvick and Phoenix is the most sure-thing combo in Nascar at the moment. Until someone steps up and knock him off here, I still consider him the man!
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Kurt Busch - I believe Kurt Busch is Harvick's biggest competition when the green waves. I would not be shocked if Harvick gives Busch one, given they are running 1-2 with a few to go. Then again, he might not. Regardless I believe the 41 car is fast enough to beat his teammate. Kurt have been fast in everything this weekend. No suprise either! Earlier this season, he probably had the 2nd-best car to only Kevin Harvick. A late race gamble didn't pay off and still managed a solid effort. Like teammate Kevin Harvick, he have a stout track record here. I consider this his best racetrack on the schedule! Kurt will roll off from 2nd on Sunday. Don't be shocked to see him lead laps early on.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson will roll off from the pole position on Sunday and should contend for the win as well. Johnson use to dominate this place and then they repaved it. Since then, he have not really contended for wins on a consistent basis. Don't get me wrong, he have been strong but not good enough to win. He was fast on Saturday and that is very encouraging when we look at fantasy picks. He have track position to start, the best pit stall and speed. Great things to have at this racetrack. Jimmie biggest flaw during the chase have been bad luck. He been fastest week in and week out since Chicagoland. I believe the 48 will contend for least a top 5 finish, if not more!
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Carl Edwards - Edwards should be a very strong fantasy option for those of you looking for someone under the radar during the chase. The driver of the 19 car been very happy with his car all weekend. Edwards qualified very well and practiced just as good, if not better on Saturday. This seems to be one of his favorite tracks on the schedule and I would be disappointed with anything less than a top 10 finish. As you can see, I am a bit more optimist about his chances. I believe he can finish inside the top 5 on Sunday. Of course consistency during the chase and track record helped volt him into my top 5. Realistically I think he is more a top 10 play. However the numbers say he will have a good shot at the top 5, too.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
5. Joey Logano - Logano must win or go home on Sunday. He did not qualify very well on Friday though. He will roll off from the 14th starting position, but he showed some speed on Saturday. However I don't think it was enough to say he is a winning threat. Logano was consistent for most of the season, but these past two races he have became a liability. Personally I am staying away from him in my fantasy lineups. He considered a top-tier driver, so we expect top-tier results. My concern with him is he will try too hard to win Sunday's race and that may cost him a solid finish. Either way I think Logano is boarderline top 5 fantasy pick headed into Sunday's race, after taking all of the factors into consideration.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
6. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski will start even further back than teammate Joey Logano. I also get the feeling, he have less speed than Logano based off the lap times I seen in practice between the two drivers. I would never count out Keselowski and I would not be shocked if that team took extra risks to potentially win Sunday's race. Based on what I know right now, I would say he is probably in for a top 10 finish. There few things that will hurt Keselowski in the race. One of them would be starting from the 18th position. Not only will he have a hard time finding the front of the field. He also doesn't the luxury of a top pit stall like the guys starting up front. At Phoenix, I believe having a great pit stall is as important as having a fast car.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
7. Kyle Busch - I debated weather or not to rank Kyle 5th or 7th as it was that close in my opinion. Outside of the top two or three drivers, I believe it wide open. Kyle will roll off from the 10th starting position on Sunday. He should easily finish in the top 10 and have enough upside to finish in the top 5. The different between a top 5 and top 10 will likely be how well the 18 team make adjustments and contain track position. Personally I don't think Kyle will win and if he can make it on points, I am sure he will take it Based on practice, look for him to run in the 5th-8th place range most of the day.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
8. Dale Jr - Dale Jr is quietly having a great weekend and have a fast car for Sunday's race. He qualified very well and should be in for least a top 10 finish. I think more people would have taken more serious, if he still was in contention for the championship. Oh well, more fantasy value for me! Seriously I do believe Dale Jr will be a legit contender for the win on Sunday. Only reason I ranked him so low is he haven't performed that well during the chase and that a red flag to me. Not to mention, he have struggled to finish well on the short-flat racetracks this season. Based on practice, I would say was about a top 5 guy after final practice.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
9. Martin Truex Jr - Truex is having a nice chase and is now in a position to race himself into the championship round on points. I think he least needs to finish inside the top 7 to advance. More realistically, I think he will probably have to finish inside the top 5. Just depends how the guys behind him does. Truex qualified very well in 4th place and showed solid speed in both practices on Saturday. He should finish in the top 10 and have upside to finish in the top 5, but I wouldn't bank on it though.Truex have turned into a consistent driver during the chase and will likely be why he is battling for the championship at Homestead.
Given he advances that is!
My Overall Ranking: 9th
10. Kyle Larson - My dark horse this weekend is the driver of the No.42 Target car and that is Kyle Larson! He had a rocket last weekend at Texas and probably had a top 3 car easily, before tire issues doomed him. Guess the 42 team liked running up front, so they came to Phoenix with another fast piece. Larson qualified 6th and looked to be one of the quicker guys in practice at times. If he could finish out a race for once, I would probably have ranked him ahead of few more drivers. For some reason, Kyle cannot finish out races this season. Will Phoenix be any different? I sure hope so!
My Overall Ranking: 10th
11. Jeff Gordon - Gordon haven't really been that impressive this weekend, but I expect him to finish around the 10th finishing position. He have decent long run speed, but nothing that says he will contend for a top 5 finish or a win though. I don't expect anything beyond the top 10, so his upside is limited in most formats. On the plus side, he is locked into the next round. So he should be able to gamble, if he needs to during the race.
My Overall Ranking: 11th
12. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin will round out the rankings this week! Hamlin qualified 13th for Sunday's race and should contend for least a top 15 finish. This season, it seems like he top 7 or nothing. That alone worries me a bit. He have became more consistent during the chase and could be a solid sleeper pick late in the race. He showed solid speed in Saturday practice sessions and if he is in position late in the race, I believe that 11 team could be in for a top 10 or so finish. Honestly I am not really feeling him this week. In my opinion, he have lost some fantasy value since being eliminated from the championship. He still getting solid finishes here and there with JGR, but cannot really trust him when his teammates are battling for a championship. Not saying he cannot get the finishes, just saying he isn't a top priority.
Twitter - @JeffNathans