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Jamie McMuarry was probably the biggest surprised not named Martin Truex Jr in the 2015 season, yet he never really got much credit. Considering everyone was drooling over his teammate Kyle Larson after the 2014 season. Yet it was Jamie McMurray who made the chase and outproduce the younger CGR driver. It was also surprising that Jamie was consistent as he was. He never been known for his consistency and 2015 was arguably his best season ever. In 2016, I don't think he will remain as consistent. I personally don't think he will make the chase like he did in 2015, but I do think he can have a very respectably season.
Short tracks is where Jamie will be his strongest at in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he posted 9.0 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Those are some very impressive numbers! He had the best average finish among drivers who raced all 6 times on the short tracks. Only Kyle Busch had a better average finish, but he missed a few races on the short tracks. He had the 3rd best average running position to only Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch who ran all 6 short track races. He also completed the most laps inside the top 15 which comes out to about 92%. And his driver rating ranked 6th best in the series as well. I would say Martinsville is his best racetrack Over the past 6 races, he have posted 14.5 average finish with 12.2 average running position and 97.9 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 2nd and 10th. He had one of the strongest cars last fall during the chase and was easily a top 5 driver. Last spring at Martinsville, he wasn't nearly as strong, but he still was a legit top 10 driver during the race. He had about 10th place to 12th place car for that event. In 2014 spring Martinsville race, he was running inside or very close to the top 5. However he was dumped by Dale Jr and finished 42nd. In 2014 fall Martinsville race, he started from the pole and led 84 laps onto his way to 16th place finish. Misleading though. He had a top 5 car for that event and should have finished there too. However on a last restart, he restarted on the outside and well that pretty much ended his chances at a solid finish. He also been very good at Bristol over the past few seasons. Over the past 6 Bristol races, he have posted 16.7 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 11th and 14th. Jamie wasn't overly strong in either race, but had quality finishes in both events. I would say he would stronger in the summer race though. In that event, he was running around the top 5 when
Clint Bowyer blew a tire and Jamie happen to be right behind him. That probably ruined any chance of a top 5 or a top 10 finish, but he still managed a respectably finish. Regardless he was strong for that entire race. In summer race of 2014, he was dominated at Martinsville for a good portion of the race. He led 148 laps and arguably had the car to beat until about the final quarter of the race. A caution flew late and he restarted in the wrong line and that cost him a few spots on the restart. After that, his car was never really the same it was up front. He faded and finished about 8th in the race when the checkers waved. Richmond is another great racetrack for Jamie. I would say he been his best here based off of stats. Over the past 5 races at Richmond, he have posted 7.6 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 103.3 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 13th and 4th. Last spring at Richmond, he probably had the car to beat on the long run or at worst the 2nd best car to eventual winner Kurt Busch. The end of the race didn't go according to plan though. There wasn't really any long runs after the halfway point, so Jamie never could take advantage how strong his car was. All of the cautions in that race came in the late stages, so it kinda ruined Jamie's chance at victory. The previous race before that was September 2014. He also finished 4th in that race and was real strong. The previous September race in 2013? He finished 4th once a gain. In those three races, he have posted 4.0 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.5 driver rating. He finished 13th in the remaining two races. He should be a legit top 10 threat at the short tracks in 2016 as he have been the previous two seasons.
Shorter flat racetracks will likely be other strong tracks for Jamie Mac. Last season he was strong at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season at New Hampshire he had finishes of 26th and 14th. If I remember right he was running inside the top 10 last season at the first New Hampshire race, but something happened to his engine and dropped down the running order. Prior to that 26th place finish, he had finishes of 4th, 16th, 5th and 12th in the previous two seasons. In the 6 races at New Hampshire overall, he have posted 12.8 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. His numbers would be even better if he would have been able to finish out his strong run last season at New Hampshire. So overall New Hampshire been a great track over the past three seasons. At Phoenix recently, he been fairly good overall I would say. Over the past 4 races, he have posted 10.3 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 93.7 driver rating. In those 4 races, his finishes consist of 15th, 2nd, 14th and 10th. He didn't really have any good runs at Phoenix prior to the past two seasons though. In his first 21 races at Phoenix (from 2002 to 2013), he only managed 5 Top 15 finishes. Now he have 4 Top 15 finishes in his past 4 races. Pretty impressive turn around for Jamie Mac at Phoenix I would say. Last season combined on the short flat racetracks (4 races), he posted 14.3 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 89.9 driver rating. Based on his recent numbers and everything being factored in, I would say he have a lot of low to middle teen finishes at the short flat racetracks.
Intermediate racetracks will be another strength for Jamie McMurray in 2016. This been a type racetrack that have been kind to Jamie the past few seasons. More specifically the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks have been a strong spot for him. Last season, he was one of the most consistent drivers on the 1.5 mile racetracks. Last season on the 1.5 mile racetracks, he posted 15.8 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 80.3 driver rating. Of the 11 races on the 1.5 mile tracks, he only managed 2 top 10 finishes. However remember his is a consistent driver so he wasn't nothing flashy. Even though 7 of the 11 races did end inside the top 15 and 10 of the 11 races ended inside the top 20. His lone non-top 20 finish? Atlanta. Where he was involved in that big wreck in the early stages. He finished 40th. Historically speaking and more recently, I would say Texas and Charlotte would be considered as his best racetracks. I would say Texas have been his best 1.5 mile track over the past few seasons. He had 2 top 10 finishes last season and both of them came at Texas. In fact he have 3 straight top 10 finishes dating back to the 2014 season. In 24 career starts at Texas, Jamie have posted 16.9 average finish with 9 Top 10 and 17 top 20 finishes. His best finish came in 2nd back in 2005 when he was with CGR the first time. His best performance was probably in 2008 where he finished 3rd and led a career-high 56 laps when he still with RFR. Charlotte is probably considered his next best 1.5 mile track. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 12th. Both CGR cars struggled in the spring race and never really contended for even top 20 finishes. In the fall, he wasn't overly great either but still was much better than in the spring though. It was probably a year to forgive at Charlotte for Jamie. In 2014, he was fast. He swept the top 5 with finishes of 3rd and 5th. When looking at his track record, I am not real impressed. He been either top 5 or bust mostly. At same time, Charlotte is the only track he have finished inside top 5 multiple times at over the past two seasons. In fact, Charlotte is the only intermediate racetrack that he have ever won at. And it only one of 4 racetrack that he have won at. In 2016, I think Jamie will not be able to repeat 2015 success. I think he will have more top 10 finishes, but less top 20 finishes though.
Road Courses will be where Jamie is pretty underrated at. He is a quality racer course racer and I don't think everyone realize that. Sonoma been a decent track over the past two seasons. He finished 11th in last season's event and finished 4th in 2014. He was strong again in 2013, but his race was a mess. He started on the pole and stood with the leaders. However then I believe he had to pit for a flat tire and never really was able to catch back up fully. Long story short, he was stuck back in mid-pack for most of the race. In his career at Sonoma, he only have two top 10 finishes (back ending inside the top 5), but most of his finishes have came from 11th-20th. That where I am willing to bet where he finishes in 2016 at Sonoma too. He have struggled at Watkins Glenn more than Sonoma. His best career finish is 3rd back with RFR in 2006. At first glance, he have been pretty bad with career average of 20.6 with 2 Top 10 finishes in 13 career races. No so fast though. In 8 of the 13 races, he have finished inside the top 17. 6 of those 8 races have ended in 11th-17th place range. Including 3 of the past 5 races have ended in 11th-17 place finish range. His two finishes not inside the top 17? 40th and 39th. Both races he finished multiple laps down. So not like he performed poorly.
The big flat racetracks will be decent for Jamie McMurray overall in 2016. Pocono and Indy have been tracks that he have found success at. Jamie will always be known for his win at the Brickyard in 2010. He have not been as strong in previous seasons, but does not mean he haven't been productive though. Since winning at Indy in 2010, he have finishes of 4th, 22nd, 15th, 16th and 20th. Like I mentioned before those aren't numbers but they are still pretty solid overall. Over the past two seasons, he have posted 18.0 average finish with 17.5 average running position. So he haven't great recently, so I wouldn't expect anything beyond a top 15 finish probably. Realistically I would say 14th-20th is the most likely outcome at Indy. He been better at Pocono recently though. Over the past 4 races, he have posted 9.8 average finish with 13.3 average running position. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, his finishes consist of 15th, 10th, 7th and 7th. In fact he have 8 straight top 17 finishes dating back to the 2012 season. Before finishing 15th last August, he have had three straight top 10 finishes. In 2015 on the big flat racetracks (3 races), he posted 12.7 average finish with 14.7 average running position.
Restrictor Plate tracks will be where he will be able to perform well at, but he won't always get the results he want though. Last season at Daytona, he posted 21.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 80.0 driver rating. Over the past 8 races at Daytona, he have been super inconsistent. Every single season dating back to the 2012 season, he have one top 15 finish and one finish outside of the top 26. Every since year he seems to have one solid finish and one disappointing finish. Not something I would really want in a fantasy pick. Aside from his win at Talladega in 2013, Jamie have been just as inconsistent at Talladega. Over the past 9 races at Talladega, he have finished 29th or worse in 5 races and only 3 top 11 finishes. Even though one of those top 11s, ended in a win. Over the past 4 races at Talladega, he have posted 28.5 average finish with 24.0 average running position and 64.5 driver rating. I am not going to dig deep into data here at Daytona and Talladega, but Jamie have been wildly inconsistent at both tracks. I think it next to impossible to make predictions about the restrictor plates. So I am just going to say that Jamie will have his chances to shine, but don't be shocked if he have mixed finishes in 2016.
Twitter - @CarlHeirman
Jamie McMuarry was probably the biggest surprised not named Martin Truex Jr in the 2015 season, yet he never really got much credit. Considering everyone was drooling over his teammate Kyle Larson after the 2014 season. Yet it was Jamie McMurray who made the chase and outproduce the younger CGR driver. It was also surprising that Jamie was consistent as he was. He never been known for his consistency and 2015 was arguably his best season ever. In 2016, I don't think he will remain as consistent. I personally don't think he will make the chase like he did in 2015, but I do think he can have a very respectably season.
Short tracks is where Jamie will be his strongest at in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he posted 9.0 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Those are some very impressive numbers! He had the best average finish among drivers who raced all 6 times on the short tracks. Only Kyle Busch had a better average finish, but he missed a few races on the short tracks. He had the 3rd best average running position to only Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch who ran all 6 short track races. He also completed the most laps inside the top 15 which comes out to about 92%. And his driver rating ranked 6th best in the series as well. I would say Martinsville is his best racetrack Over the past 6 races, he have posted 14.5 average finish with 12.2 average running position and 97.9 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 2nd and 10th. He had one of the strongest cars last fall during the chase and was easily a top 5 driver. Last spring at Martinsville, he wasn't nearly as strong, but he still was a legit top 10 driver during the race. He had about 10th place to 12th place car for that event. In 2014 spring Martinsville race, he was running inside or very close to the top 5. However he was dumped by Dale Jr and finished 42nd. In 2014 fall Martinsville race, he started from the pole and led 84 laps onto his way to 16th place finish. Misleading though. He had a top 5 car for that event and should have finished there too. However on a last restart, he restarted on the outside and well that pretty much ended his chances at a solid finish. He also been very good at Bristol over the past few seasons. Over the past 6 Bristol races, he have posted 16.7 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 11th and 14th. Jamie wasn't overly strong in either race, but had quality finishes in both events. I would say he would stronger in the summer race though. In that event, he was running around the top 5 when
Clint Bowyer blew a tire and Jamie happen to be right behind him. That probably ruined any chance of a top 5 or a top 10 finish, but he still managed a respectably finish. Regardless he was strong for that entire race. In summer race of 2014, he was dominated at Martinsville for a good portion of the race. He led 148 laps and arguably had the car to beat until about the final quarter of the race. A caution flew late and he restarted in the wrong line and that cost him a few spots on the restart. After that, his car was never really the same it was up front. He faded and finished about 8th in the race when the checkers waved. Richmond is another great racetrack for Jamie. I would say he been his best here based off of stats. Over the past 5 races at Richmond, he have posted 7.6 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 103.3 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 13th and 4th. Last spring at Richmond, he probably had the car to beat on the long run or at worst the 2nd best car to eventual winner Kurt Busch. The end of the race didn't go according to plan though. There wasn't really any long runs after the halfway point, so Jamie never could take advantage how strong his car was. All of the cautions in that race came in the late stages, so it kinda ruined Jamie's chance at victory. The previous race before that was September 2014. He also finished 4th in that race and was real strong. The previous September race in 2013? He finished 4th once a gain. In those three races, he have posted 4.0 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.5 driver rating. He finished 13th in the remaining two races. He should be a legit top 10 threat at the short tracks in 2016 as he have been the previous two seasons.
Shorter flat racetracks will likely be other strong tracks for Jamie Mac. Last season he was strong at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season at New Hampshire he had finishes of 26th and 14th. If I remember right he was running inside the top 10 last season at the first New Hampshire race, but something happened to his engine and dropped down the running order. Prior to that 26th place finish, he had finishes of 4th, 16th, 5th and 12th in the previous two seasons. In the 6 races at New Hampshire overall, he have posted 12.8 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. His numbers would be even better if he would have been able to finish out his strong run last season at New Hampshire. So overall New Hampshire been a great track over the past three seasons. At Phoenix recently, he been fairly good overall I would say. Over the past 4 races, he have posted 10.3 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 93.7 driver rating. In those 4 races, his finishes consist of 15th, 2nd, 14th and 10th. He didn't really have any good runs at Phoenix prior to the past two seasons though. In his first 21 races at Phoenix (from 2002 to 2013), he only managed 5 Top 15 finishes. Now he have 4 Top 15 finishes in his past 4 races. Pretty impressive turn around for Jamie Mac at Phoenix I would say. Last season combined on the short flat racetracks (4 races), he posted 14.3 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 89.9 driver rating. Based on his recent numbers and everything being factored in, I would say he have a lot of low to middle teen finishes at the short flat racetracks.
Intermediate racetracks will be another strength for Jamie McMurray in 2016. This been a type racetrack that have been kind to Jamie the past few seasons. More specifically the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks have been a strong spot for him. Last season, he was one of the most consistent drivers on the 1.5 mile racetracks. Last season on the 1.5 mile racetracks, he posted 15.8 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 80.3 driver rating. Of the 11 races on the 1.5 mile tracks, he only managed 2 top 10 finishes. However remember his is a consistent driver so he wasn't nothing flashy. Even though 7 of the 11 races did end inside the top 15 and 10 of the 11 races ended inside the top 20. His lone non-top 20 finish? Atlanta. Where he was involved in that big wreck in the early stages. He finished 40th. Historically speaking and more recently, I would say Texas and Charlotte would be considered as his best racetracks. I would say Texas have been his best 1.5 mile track over the past few seasons. He had 2 top 10 finishes last season and both of them came at Texas. In fact he have 3 straight top 10 finishes dating back to the 2014 season. In 24 career starts at Texas, Jamie have posted 16.9 average finish with 9 Top 10 and 17 top 20 finishes. His best finish came in 2nd back in 2005 when he was with CGR the first time. His best performance was probably in 2008 where he finished 3rd and led a career-high 56 laps when he still with RFR. Charlotte is probably considered his next best 1.5 mile track. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 12th. Both CGR cars struggled in the spring race and never really contended for even top 20 finishes. In the fall, he wasn't overly great either but still was much better than in the spring though. It was probably a year to forgive at Charlotte for Jamie. In 2014, he was fast. He swept the top 5 with finishes of 3rd and 5th. When looking at his track record, I am not real impressed. He been either top 5 or bust mostly. At same time, Charlotte is the only track he have finished inside top 5 multiple times at over the past two seasons. In fact, Charlotte is the only intermediate racetrack that he have ever won at. And it only one of 4 racetrack that he have won at. In 2016, I think Jamie will not be able to repeat 2015 success. I think he will have more top 10 finishes, but less top 20 finishes though.
Road Courses will be where Jamie is pretty underrated at. He is a quality racer course racer and I don't think everyone realize that. Sonoma been a decent track over the past two seasons. He finished 11th in last season's event and finished 4th in 2014. He was strong again in 2013, but his race was a mess. He started on the pole and stood with the leaders. However then I believe he had to pit for a flat tire and never really was able to catch back up fully. Long story short, he was stuck back in mid-pack for most of the race. In his career at Sonoma, he only have two top 10 finishes (back ending inside the top 5), but most of his finishes have came from 11th-20th. That where I am willing to bet where he finishes in 2016 at Sonoma too. He have struggled at Watkins Glenn more than Sonoma. His best career finish is 3rd back with RFR in 2006. At first glance, he have been pretty bad with career average of 20.6 with 2 Top 10 finishes in 13 career races. No so fast though. In 8 of the 13 races, he have finished inside the top 17. 6 of those 8 races have ended in 11th-17th place range. Including 3 of the past 5 races have ended in 11th-17 place finish range. His two finishes not inside the top 17? 40th and 39th. Both races he finished multiple laps down. So not like he performed poorly.
The big flat racetracks will be decent for Jamie McMurray overall in 2016. Pocono and Indy have been tracks that he have found success at. Jamie will always be known for his win at the Brickyard in 2010. He have not been as strong in previous seasons, but does not mean he haven't been productive though. Since winning at Indy in 2010, he have finishes of 4th, 22nd, 15th, 16th and 20th. Like I mentioned before those aren't numbers but they are still pretty solid overall. Over the past two seasons, he have posted 18.0 average finish with 17.5 average running position. So he haven't great recently, so I wouldn't expect anything beyond a top 15 finish probably. Realistically I would say 14th-20th is the most likely outcome at Indy. He been better at Pocono recently though. Over the past 4 races, he have posted 9.8 average finish with 13.3 average running position. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, his finishes consist of 15th, 10th, 7th and 7th. In fact he have 8 straight top 17 finishes dating back to the 2012 season. Before finishing 15th last August, he have had three straight top 10 finishes. In 2015 on the big flat racetracks (3 races), he posted 12.7 average finish with 14.7 average running position.
Restrictor Plate tracks will be where he will be able to perform well at, but he won't always get the results he want though. Last season at Daytona, he posted 21.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 80.0 driver rating. Over the past 8 races at Daytona, he have been super inconsistent. Every single season dating back to the 2012 season, he have one top 15 finish and one finish outside of the top 26. Every since year he seems to have one solid finish and one disappointing finish. Not something I would really want in a fantasy pick. Aside from his win at Talladega in 2013, Jamie have been just as inconsistent at Talladega. Over the past 9 races at Talladega, he have finished 29th or worse in 5 races and only 3 top 11 finishes. Even though one of those top 11s, ended in a win. Over the past 4 races at Talladega, he have posted 28.5 average finish with 24.0 average running position and 64.5 driver rating. I am not going to dig deep into data here at Daytona and Talladega, but Jamie have been wildly inconsistent at both tracks. I think it next to impossible to make predictions about the restrictor plates. So I am just going to say that Jamie will have his chances to shine, but don't be shocked if he have mixed finishes in 2016.
Twitter - @CarlHeirman