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Heading into the 2015 season, I felt like Kurt Busch was going to be in for a monster season with Tony Gibson as his crew chief and I was right about it too. Despite missing the first 3 races (through Las Vegas), he still was one of the best drivers on a weekly basis starting at Phoenix. He wasn't quite as good as teammate Kevin Harvick, but still performed like a top 5 driver most race weekends. In 2016, I expect Busch to continue his strong success with SHR. Long as Tony Gibson is crew chief and SHR have speed, I believe Kurt will be a threat to run and finish up front.
The intermediate racetracks will be one of his strong suits in 2016! Last season he was pretty strong overall on 17 intermediate racetracks, he supported 9.9 average finish (5th-best in series) with 8.0 average running position and 107.8 driver rating. More often than not, Kurt Busch finished inside the top 10. Even though he often had a top 5 quality car. I thought his big problem was finishing out races. To me, he never could finish consistency up inside the top 5, even though he had the speed to. Out of Dover (finished 31st and 17th), he didn't really have any bad races in 2015. But most of his finishes were in the 7th-14th place range. His best racetracks among the intermediate racetracks would be Cali (best racetrack IMO), Texas, Chicago and Kentucky. I would say Cali and Texas are his best racetracks. Followed by Chicago and Kentucky. We only visit Chicago and Kentucky once per season though. I would say Cali is his best racetrack by far and quite frankly it not very close either.
Kurt Busch is a good driver on the flat short racetracks and he should perform decently in 2016. Last season on the short flat racetracks (4 races), he supported 10.3 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. He been better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the previous 2 seasons at Phoenix (minus spring 2014 race - engine issue), he have supported 6.3 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. In that 3 race span, he have finished inside the top 7 in every race. He finished 39th in his debut with SHR in spring 2014, but he blew his engine. I also feel like he was still getting use to his new team at that point. Overall 10 of his previous 15 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 10. Including 5 of his previous 7 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 8. Phoenix is considered one of Kurt's best racetracks. And that won't change in 2016 either. He been worse at New Hampshire recently though. Over his previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 20.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 84.7 driver rating. New Hampshire isn't really a great track for him like Phoenix have been. He been alright, but a good day for him is usually somewhere in the teens. Even though he recently he had fast cars at New Hampshire. But to only receive misleading finishes. Over the past 3 races at New Hampshire (minus September 2014 - finished 36th; many laps down due to in-race issue), he have supported 15.3 average running position with 10.3 average running position and 103.3 driver rating. Over his previous 11 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished between 10th-19th place in 6 of those 11 races. He best finish is 10th twice in fact. Prior to that when he was still with Pesnke, he reeled off 5 straight top 6 finishes from June 2008 to June 2010. Since he really haven't gotten any off-the chart finishes. Overall you can expect Kurt to run strongly at times at New Hampshire, but history says he won't finish any better than 10th-19th place range. What's challenging about New Hampshire is, it is a track-position venue. Track position is key. If you get mired in mid-pack on a late restart, then you are pretty much screwed. Very tough to predict.
Road Courses will be among his strongest track racetracks in 2016. He always been a strong road course racer and that won't change anytime soon. Over the previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 7.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. He finished 2nd last season and 12th in 2014. Even though he was running inside the top 5, before Bowyer spun out and he got caught up in it. Overall he have reeled off 5 straight top 12 finishes dating back to the 2011 season. Including 4 Top 4 finishes in those 5 races. He been equally as good at Watkin Glenn. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 4.0 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 106.9 driver rating. Last season he finished 5th and 3rd in 2014. Prior to that he finished 9th place in 2013. Overall he have reeled off 7 Top 11 finishes in his previous 9 attempts. Including 5 Top 9 finishes over his previous 7 races, dating back to 2009 season. 3 of his previous top 9 finishes have ended inside the top 5. Overall the previous two seasons (4 races) at road courses, he have supported 5.5 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. He have the best average finish in the series during that span. He also have the most top 5 finishes (3), the best average running position (8.8) and the best driver rating (111.6) in the series.
Short Tracks should be a okay type racetrack for short tracks venues in 2016. Last season at short tracks (6 races - Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol), he have supported 15.5 average finish with 8.2 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. At Richmond, he supported 11.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 103.4 driver rating. Kurt Busch dominated at Richmond last spring, while leading 291 laps and won. He have finished inside the top 15 in three straight races at Richmond. Overall he have finished 5 of the previous 6 races inside the top 15. Including 4 top 9 finishes in previous 6 races. Going deeper into the data pool, he have finished 11 of the previous 18 races at Richmond inside the top 15. Including 9 Top 10 finishes in that 18 race span, dating back to the 2007 season. Obviously only 4 to 6 of the previous Richmond races are relevant, but it still good to look deeper into his career stats. He been pretty solid here over the years. That won't change in 2016 in my opinion. Kurt Busch was very at old Bristol, but haven't yet found his footing with new Bristol though. Over the previous 4 races at Bristol, he have supported 17.3 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 96.0 driver rating. Obvious his performance isn't the problem as he have ran competitively almost each time he have visited this track. His final finish position is the issue. Over the previous 6 races, he have finished inside the top 15 in 4 of those 6 races. Including two top 5 finishes in that span of 4th (March 2013 and August 2014). He also have led in 4 of those 6 races. He led the most laps in spring 2015 (last season) race, where he led 98 laps to an 15th-place finish. Noticeably he got involved in a wreck late and finished a lap down. Martinsville isn't a great track for Kurt, even though it not a terrible track for him either. However it not one that I would recommend you using him at though. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 21.3 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Now he haven't been recently, but always seems to find bad luck at Martinsville that prevents him from getting a deserving finish. Minus his lone Martinsville win in spring 2014 (he got in a wreck on pit road with Brad Keselowski by the way), he have not finished inside the top 10 since 2005. No that is no mistake. Even though he have reeled off 10 finishes between 11th-18th.
Big flats tracks should be a strength for Kurt Busch during the 2016 season. Last season on the big flats (3 races), he have supported 16.7 average finish with 15.7 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, he have supported 21.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 104.0 driver rating. He finished 37th and 5th. Doing deeper into his Pocono data over the previous 4 races, he have supported 14.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 110.1 driver rating. Outside of his 37th place finish, he have reeled off 5 straight top 13 finishes. Overall he have knocked off 6 Top 7 finishes over his previous 8 races, dating back to the 2011 season. Digging deeper into the data pool, he have reeled off 13 Top 9 finishes over his previous 20 races, dating back to the 2005 season. He haven't been quite so lucky at Indy though. Over his previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 18.0 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 80.7 driver rating. He finished 8th last season and 28th in 2014. Overall he only have 5 Top 14 finishes in his previous 10 races dating back to the 2006 season. Over his previous 5 races (dating back to the 2011 season), he have supported 21.4 average finish with 17..4 average running position and 80.9 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have finished 21st or worse in 3 of those 5 races. His lone decent finishes are 14th (2013) and 8th (2015 - last season).
Kurt Busch is a very underrated plate racer. I consider him the best plate racer to never win a points paying plate race. He never get enough respect, because he usually isn't the first guy that people think of at the plate venues. Last season at Daytona and Talladega, he have supported 9.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 84.8 driver rating. He been pretty good at Daytona and Talladega. Over the previous 3 races (2 seasons) at Daytona, he have supported 9.7 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 98.2 driver rating. Overall 6 of his previous 10 races have ended inside the top 14. 5 of those 6 races have ended inside the top 10. 4 of those 5 races ended inside the top 6. He have found same deal of success at Talladega, but at a less higher rate up front. However he have been more consistent with his top 20 finishes though. Over his previous 4 races at Talladega, he have supported 15.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. He have reeled off 3 straight Top 12 finishes at Talladega. 5 of the previous 8 races have ended in 20th or better.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Heading into the 2015 season, I felt like Kurt Busch was going to be in for a monster season with Tony Gibson as his crew chief and I was right about it too. Despite missing the first 3 races (through Las Vegas), he still was one of the best drivers on a weekly basis starting at Phoenix. He wasn't quite as good as teammate Kevin Harvick, but still performed like a top 5 driver most race weekends. In 2016, I expect Busch to continue his strong success with SHR. Long as Tony Gibson is crew chief and SHR have speed, I believe Kurt will be a threat to run and finish up front.
The intermediate racetracks will be one of his strong suits in 2016! Last season he was pretty strong overall on 17 intermediate racetracks, he supported 9.9 average finish (5th-best in series) with 8.0 average running position and 107.8 driver rating. More often than not, Kurt Busch finished inside the top 10. Even though he often had a top 5 quality car. I thought his big problem was finishing out races. To me, he never could finish consistency up inside the top 5, even though he had the speed to. Out of Dover (finished 31st and 17th), he didn't really have any bad races in 2015. But most of his finishes were in the 7th-14th place range. His best racetracks among the intermediate racetracks would be Cali (best racetrack IMO), Texas, Chicago and Kentucky. I would say Cali and Texas are his best racetracks. Followed by Chicago and Kentucky. We only visit Chicago and Kentucky once per season though. I would say Cali is his best racetrack by far and quite frankly it not very close either.
Kurt Busch is a good driver on the flat short racetracks and he should perform decently in 2016. Last season on the short flat racetracks (4 races), he supported 10.3 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. He been better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the previous 2 seasons at Phoenix (minus spring 2014 race - engine issue), he have supported 6.3 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. In that 3 race span, he have finished inside the top 7 in every race. He finished 39th in his debut with SHR in spring 2014, but he blew his engine. I also feel like he was still getting use to his new team at that point. Overall 10 of his previous 15 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 10. Including 5 of his previous 7 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 8. Phoenix is considered one of Kurt's best racetracks. And that won't change in 2016 either. He been worse at New Hampshire recently though. Over his previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 20.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 84.7 driver rating. New Hampshire isn't really a great track for him like Phoenix have been. He been alright, but a good day for him is usually somewhere in the teens. Even though he recently he had fast cars at New Hampshire. But to only receive misleading finishes. Over the past 3 races at New Hampshire (minus September 2014 - finished 36th; many laps down due to in-race issue), he have supported 15.3 average running position with 10.3 average running position and 103.3 driver rating. Over his previous 11 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished between 10th-19th place in 6 of those 11 races. He best finish is 10th twice in fact. Prior to that when he was still with Pesnke, he reeled off 5 straight top 6 finishes from June 2008 to June 2010. Since he really haven't gotten any off-the chart finishes. Overall you can expect Kurt to run strongly at times at New Hampshire, but history says he won't finish any better than 10th-19th place range. What's challenging about New Hampshire is, it is a track-position venue. Track position is key. If you get mired in mid-pack on a late restart, then you are pretty much screwed. Very tough to predict.
Road Courses will be among his strongest track racetracks in 2016. He always been a strong road course racer and that won't change anytime soon. Over the previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 7.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. He finished 2nd last season and 12th in 2014. Even though he was running inside the top 5, before Bowyer spun out and he got caught up in it. Overall he have reeled off 5 straight top 12 finishes dating back to the 2011 season. Including 4 Top 4 finishes in those 5 races. He been equally as good at Watkin Glenn. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 4.0 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 106.9 driver rating. Last season he finished 5th and 3rd in 2014. Prior to that he finished 9th place in 2013. Overall he have reeled off 7 Top 11 finishes in his previous 9 attempts. Including 5 Top 9 finishes over his previous 7 races, dating back to 2009 season. 3 of his previous top 9 finishes have ended inside the top 5. Overall the previous two seasons (4 races) at road courses, he have supported 5.5 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. He have the best average finish in the series during that span. He also have the most top 5 finishes (3), the best average running position (8.8) and the best driver rating (111.6) in the series.
Short Tracks should be a okay type racetrack for short tracks venues in 2016. Last season at short tracks (6 races - Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol), he have supported 15.5 average finish with 8.2 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. At Richmond, he supported 11.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 103.4 driver rating. Kurt Busch dominated at Richmond last spring, while leading 291 laps and won. He have finished inside the top 15 in three straight races at Richmond. Overall he have finished 5 of the previous 6 races inside the top 15. Including 4 top 9 finishes in previous 6 races. Going deeper into the data pool, he have finished 11 of the previous 18 races at Richmond inside the top 15. Including 9 Top 10 finishes in that 18 race span, dating back to the 2007 season. Obviously only 4 to 6 of the previous Richmond races are relevant, but it still good to look deeper into his career stats. He been pretty solid here over the years. That won't change in 2016 in my opinion. Kurt Busch was very at old Bristol, but haven't yet found his footing with new Bristol though. Over the previous 4 races at Bristol, he have supported 17.3 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 96.0 driver rating. Obvious his performance isn't the problem as he have ran competitively almost each time he have visited this track. His final finish position is the issue. Over the previous 6 races, he have finished inside the top 15 in 4 of those 6 races. Including two top 5 finishes in that span of 4th (March 2013 and August 2014). He also have led in 4 of those 6 races. He led the most laps in spring 2015 (last season) race, where he led 98 laps to an 15th-place finish. Noticeably he got involved in a wreck late and finished a lap down. Martinsville isn't a great track for Kurt, even though it not a terrible track for him either. However it not one that I would recommend you using him at though. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 21.3 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Now he haven't been recently, but always seems to find bad luck at Martinsville that prevents him from getting a deserving finish. Minus his lone Martinsville win in spring 2014 (he got in a wreck on pit road with Brad Keselowski by the way), he have not finished inside the top 10 since 2005. No that is no mistake. Even though he have reeled off 10 finishes between 11th-18th.
Big flats tracks should be a strength for Kurt Busch during the 2016 season. Last season on the big flats (3 races), he have supported 16.7 average finish with 15.7 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, he have supported 21.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 104.0 driver rating. He finished 37th and 5th. Doing deeper into his Pocono data over the previous 4 races, he have supported 14.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 110.1 driver rating. Outside of his 37th place finish, he have reeled off 5 straight top 13 finishes. Overall he have knocked off 6 Top 7 finishes over his previous 8 races, dating back to the 2011 season. Digging deeper into the data pool, he have reeled off 13 Top 9 finishes over his previous 20 races, dating back to the 2005 season. He haven't been quite so lucky at Indy though. Over his previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 18.0 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 80.7 driver rating. He finished 8th last season and 28th in 2014. Overall he only have 5 Top 14 finishes in his previous 10 races dating back to the 2006 season. Over his previous 5 races (dating back to the 2011 season), he have supported 21.4 average finish with 17..4 average running position and 80.9 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have finished 21st or worse in 3 of those 5 races. His lone decent finishes are 14th (2013) and 8th (2015 - last season).
Kurt Busch is a very underrated plate racer. I consider him the best plate racer to never win a points paying plate race. He never get enough respect, because he usually isn't the first guy that people think of at the plate venues. Last season at Daytona and Talladega, he have supported 9.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 84.8 driver rating. He been pretty good at Daytona and Talladega. Over the previous 3 races (2 seasons) at Daytona, he have supported 9.7 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 98.2 driver rating. Overall 6 of his previous 10 races have ended inside the top 14. 5 of those 6 races have ended inside the top 10. 4 of those 5 races ended inside the top 6. He have found same deal of success at Talladega, but at a less higher rate up front. However he have been more consistent with his top 20 finishes though. Over his previous 4 races at Talladega, he have supported 15.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. He have reeled off 3 straight Top 12 finishes at Talladega. 5 of the previous 8 races have ended in 20th or better.
Twitter - @MattAleza