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For the third straight season, Joey Logano is my pick to win the championship! He have came ever so close the past two seasons and in 2016 I believe he will put it all together. There is no driver in the series who have been as good as Joey Logano have been over the past 2 seasons (72 races). He have the most wins (11), Top 5 finishes (38), Top 10 finishes (50), Top 15 finishes (57) and Top 20 (62), 3rd-most Laps led (2424), Best-average finish (10.3), 2nd-best Average RP (9.4) and 2nd-best Driver rating (106.6) and best average start (8.4). So in basic terms he ranked inside the top two in every major category, minus lap led where he is ranked 3rd over the past two seasons. I expect his strong numbers to continue in 2016!
I expect Logano to be his strongest on the intermediate racetracks in 2016, much like most of the top teams will be. Last season on the intermediate racetracks (17 races), he compiled 7.9 average finish with 8.2 average running position and 109.3 driver rating. He will be bad fast everywhere, but I would say Kansas is his best racetrack. Followed by likes of Texas, Charlotte and Michigan. I think Kansas is his best racetrack since joining Penske and have certainly been his best since start of 2014. Over the past 4 races at Kansas (2 seasons), he have compiled 2.8 average finish with 4.5 average running position and 128.9 driver rating. In Logano's first 8 starts (September 2008 to April 2013), his best career finish was 15th in 2012. In those 8 races, he only managed 3 Top 20 finishes. However over his past 5 races (October 2013 to September 2015), he have been a completely different animal! With 5 straight Top 5 finishes! Including wins in 2 of his past 3 races and winning both of the past two September races at Kansas. From career point of view, I would say Charlotte is his best racetrack. Most recently, I would say it ranked up inside the top 3 among the intermediates. I consider this his second best racetrack behind Kansas, because how consistent he always been here. Lets look at his numbers! Over the past 4 races at Charlotte (2 seasons), he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 109.8 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 1st and 13th. He had a top 5 car for most of the 600 in May, but late race pit strategy ruined his track position and finishing position. In the October race, he was simply dominated while leading 227 of 334 laps on his way to victory lane. Once he got to the lead, I don't think there was really anyone who could do anything with him. He finished 4th last fall and 12th in the spring race in 2014. Overall he have managed 3 Top 5 finishes over his past 6 races and 6 straight top 13 finishes. From career point of view, he have managed 12 Top 13 finishes in 14 starts. Including 8 Top 9 finishes in those 13 races. He been very good at Charlotte and should be fast once again 2016!
Watch out for Joey Logano on the shorter flats of Phoenix and New Hampshire. Both venues he will run very strongly at, but a lot of times get overlooked due to the stiff competition. Last season on the shorter flats (4 races), he compiled an series-best 4.5 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 113.2 driver rating. He have better stats at Phoenix than New Hampshire recently, mainly because he have that one poor finish at New Hampshire. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 5.3 average finish with 5.5 average running position and 115.5 driver rating.He have been very good recently and have knocked off 5 straight top 9 finishes. Prior to finishing 9th in November, he only have had 3 top 10 finishes and 4 Top 15s in his first 10 starts at Phoenix. New Hampshire been a very good place to Joey as well. Even though it a rare venue for him. A place where he have found success at both JGR and Penske. A lot of people get thrown off because he have mix of strong and poor finishes. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 110.8 driver rating. He have 3 straight Top 4 finishes at New Hampshire. His lone bad start was in July 2014 when he was leading the race and he got into a wreck with Morgan Shepard who was already several laps down. Since joining Penske, he have knocked off 4 Top 14 finishes. Downside? He also have 2 finishes of 40th. Both of them coming in the July summer race though. In 15 career starts, he have managed 10 Top 14 finishes. Including 7 Top 8 finishes and 2 wins. Only one of three racetracks that he have won on multiple times. The other two are Kansas and Bristol for those that are wondering.
The plates will be the toughest type of racetrack for Joey Logano probably. He won twice last season at each Talladega and Daytona. However those remain his lone top 10 finishes at both tracks in the past two seasons. Lets dig deeper into the stats! Over the past two seasons (4 races) at Daytona, he have compiled 12.8 average finish with 15.8 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. He started off the 2015 season with winning the Daytona 500. He wasn't so lucky in the Daytona summer race though. He got never contended for the win and finished 22nd with a pretty overall lackluster performance. In 2014, he posted solid finishes off 17th and 11th. In 14 career (points paying) races at Daytona, he have only managed 4 Top 10 finishes. But he also have managed 9 total top 20 finishes in those 14 races. So that isn't too bad overall, even though it haven't been great either. He been okay at Talladega, but overall similar results. Over the past 4 races at Talladega (2 seasons), he have compiled 19.3 average finish with 17.8 average running position and 83.2 driver rating. Joey won last fall Talladega race, but that was his first top 10 finish since April 2011 (10th place finish). So he went about 9 races without a top 10, prior to his past fall. Even though he had finishes off 11th and 16th in that span. But overall he have struggled. However he started off the season very well. In 3 of his first 4 races, he finished inside the top 9 though. Since he haven't been that good in terms of final finish position.
Short tracks will where Logano performs very strongly at, but as we seen over the past two season he have tendency to have misleading finishes. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he have compiled 14.8 average finish with 10.8 average running position and 108.0 driver rating. Among the three short tracks, he been his best at Richmond recently. Over the past 4 races (2 seasons) at Richmond, he have compiled 3.8 average finish with 5.0 average running position and 116.8 driver rating. Since joining Penske in 2013 (6 races), he have managed 5 Top 6 finishes. Including 3 Top 3 finishes. His past three spring races have ended like this: 3rd (2013), 1st (2014) and 5th (2015). Pretty damn solid, if you ask me! In fact, he have started inside the top 5 in his past three starts. Including sweeping the poles at Richmond in last season's races.
Logano is probably the most underrated driver in the series at Martinsville, or close to it. As he not the first driver we usual think of when we come to Martinsville. But thinking of his recent performances, he probably should be. In fact, he been pretty good throughout his career here. Not too many younger drivers can say that either. Over the past 3 races at Martinsville (minus his wreck last fall - 37th place), he have compiled 4.0 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 119.8 driver rating. Over those 3 races, he ranks 1st in average finish (4.0), average start (2.0), ARP (5.7) and DR (119.8). Without a question, he been the best driver in the series at Martinsville since start of 2014. And quite frankly he started being good at Martinsville long before joining Penske. In 14 career races at Martinsville, Joey have managed 9 Top 14 finishes. In fact 11 of his 14 career races at Martinsville have ended in 18th or better. I would say Bristol is another track that he is underrated at. His stats are misleading, if you look at his basic stats and don't dig into them. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 101.9 driver rating. Logano started out his career with 4 finishes of 23rd or worse in his first 5 races. Then summer of 2011, he started to turn the corner. Over his past 9 Bristol races, he have finished 20th or better in 8 of those 9 races. Including 5 of those 8 Top 20, ending with finishes of 13th or better. All 5 of those Top 13 finishes have came in the summer races. He have finished 1st, 1st, 5th, 8th and 13th over his past 5 summer races at Bristol. What I love most about that trend? He have improved his finish position each time. His two most recent finishes have resulted in wins. Logano also been a stout qualifier throughout his career. In 14 career races, he have managed an impressive 7.9 average starting position. Only twice have he failed to qualify inside the top 10. In fact, 6 of his past 7 races have resulted in top 6 starting positions.
Larger flats will be another strong spot for Logano in 2016 and performed very well last season at both venues. Last season on the large flats, he compiled 8.7 average finish with 8.7 average running position and 111.8 driver rating. He been very good at Indy recently and probably his better track of the two. Over the past 2 seasons (2 races), he have compiled 3.5 average finish with 7.0 average running position and 113.5 driver rating. He been very good over the past two seasons with finishes of 2nd and 5th. He have improved his finishing position in each of his past 4 starts: 2nd (2015), 5th (2014), 8th (2013) and 33rd (2012). Overall he been very good so far in his career with 5 Top 12 finishes in 7 career races. Including 4 top 9 finishes in those 7 races. Cannot really complain about the production that we have seen from him. It will only be matter of time before we see him break out. We saw a similar path from Kyle Busch before he finally won his first cup race here. I think he is equally as good at Pocono, but he have a few poor finishes that makes him misleading. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 16.8 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 105.3 driver rating. Last season he finished 20th and 4th. He wasn't very good at Pocono in the June's race. He wasn't that good, but he started posted an 4th place finish. At that time, I felt like Penske was a little bit behind the other top teams. In the August's race, he was very strong and had the car to beat. However he didn't get the finish he deserved after leading a race-high 97 of 160. He was dominated in second half of the race, but then everyone started to run out of gas. Including at the time race leader Joey Logano! Overall 6 of the past 8 Pocono have ended in 13th or better. Including 5 Top 10 finishes and 3 of those finishes ended in 4th or better. I mentioned his most recent poor finish (20th - last August), but his other poor finish was 40th in June 2014. He was pretty good in that race. I believe he was running somewhere in the top 10 when his engine finally let go.
I consider Logano to be one of the series most underrated road course racers! He never get any respect at this type racetrack and he really should be! Over the past 2 races at WGI, he have compiled an series-leading 3.5 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 103.7 driver rating. He won for the time in the cup series at a road course, but it not the first time he have found success. At Watkins Glenn, he been pretty good for awhile now. Over the past 5 races, he have knocked off 4 Top 7 finishes already. Overall in 7 career races, he have knocked off 5 Top 16 finishes. His other two finishes ended in 33rd and 32nd. Based on recently, I would say Joey is one of the series most reliable drivers! So how have he faired at Sonoma? Over the past 2 seasons (2 races) at Sonoma, he have compiled 10.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 83.8 driver rating. He finished 5th in last season's race and 16th in 2014's race. Overall he have knocked off 5 straight top 16 finishes. And 6 of his 7 career races at Sonoma have ended inside the top 20. More recently, he have knocked off 4 Top 11 finishes in his past 5 races, dating back to 2011. Overall he is very good at both racetracks and should considered a major threat!
*All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
For the third straight season, Joey Logano is my pick to win the championship! He have came ever so close the past two seasons and in 2016 I believe he will put it all together. There is no driver in the series who have been as good as Joey Logano have been over the past 2 seasons (72 races). He have the most wins (11), Top 5 finishes (38), Top 10 finishes (50), Top 15 finishes (57) and Top 20 (62), 3rd-most Laps led (2424), Best-average finish (10.3), 2nd-best Average RP (9.4) and 2nd-best Driver rating (106.6) and best average start (8.4). So in basic terms he ranked inside the top two in every major category, minus lap led where he is ranked 3rd over the past two seasons. I expect his strong numbers to continue in 2016!
I expect Logano to be his strongest on the intermediate racetracks in 2016, much like most of the top teams will be. Last season on the intermediate racetracks (17 races), he compiled 7.9 average finish with 8.2 average running position and 109.3 driver rating. He will be bad fast everywhere, but I would say Kansas is his best racetrack. Followed by likes of Texas, Charlotte and Michigan. I think Kansas is his best racetrack since joining Penske and have certainly been his best since start of 2014. Over the past 4 races at Kansas (2 seasons), he have compiled 2.8 average finish with 4.5 average running position and 128.9 driver rating. In Logano's first 8 starts (September 2008 to April 2013), his best career finish was 15th in 2012. In those 8 races, he only managed 3 Top 20 finishes. However over his past 5 races (October 2013 to September 2015), he have been a completely different animal! With 5 straight Top 5 finishes! Including wins in 2 of his past 3 races and winning both of the past two September races at Kansas. From career point of view, I would say Charlotte is his best racetrack. Most recently, I would say it ranked up inside the top 3 among the intermediates. I consider this his second best racetrack behind Kansas, because how consistent he always been here. Lets look at his numbers! Over the past 4 races at Charlotte (2 seasons), he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 109.8 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 1st and 13th. He had a top 5 car for most of the 600 in May, but late race pit strategy ruined his track position and finishing position. In the October race, he was simply dominated while leading 227 of 334 laps on his way to victory lane. Once he got to the lead, I don't think there was really anyone who could do anything with him. He finished 4th last fall and 12th in the spring race in 2014. Overall he have managed 3 Top 5 finishes over his past 6 races and 6 straight top 13 finishes. From career point of view, he have managed 12 Top 13 finishes in 14 starts. Including 8 Top 9 finishes in those 13 races. He been very good at Charlotte and should be fast once again 2016!
Watch out for Joey Logano on the shorter flats of Phoenix and New Hampshire. Both venues he will run very strongly at, but a lot of times get overlooked due to the stiff competition. Last season on the shorter flats (4 races), he compiled an series-best 4.5 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 113.2 driver rating. He have better stats at Phoenix than New Hampshire recently, mainly because he have that one poor finish at New Hampshire. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 5.3 average finish with 5.5 average running position and 115.5 driver rating.He have been very good recently and have knocked off 5 straight top 9 finishes. Prior to finishing 9th in November, he only have had 3 top 10 finishes and 4 Top 15s in his first 10 starts at Phoenix. New Hampshire been a very good place to Joey as well. Even though it a rare venue for him. A place where he have found success at both JGR and Penske. A lot of people get thrown off because he have mix of strong and poor finishes. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 110.8 driver rating. He have 3 straight Top 4 finishes at New Hampshire. His lone bad start was in July 2014 when he was leading the race and he got into a wreck with Morgan Shepard who was already several laps down. Since joining Penske, he have knocked off 4 Top 14 finishes. Downside? He also have 2 finishes of 40th. Both of them coming in the July summer race though. In 15 career starts, he have managed 10 Top 14 finishes. Including 7 Top 8 finishes and 2 wins. Only one of three racetracks that he have won on multiple times. The other two are Kansas and Bristol for those that are wondering.
The plates will be the toughest type of racetrack for Joey Logano probably. He won twice last season at each Talladega and Daytona. However those remain his lone top 10 finishes at both tracks in the past two seasons. Lets dig deeper into the stats! Over the past two seasons (4 races) at Daytona, he have compiled 12.8 average finish with 15.8 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. He started off the 2015 season with winning the Daytona 500. He wasn't so lucky in the Daytona summer race though. He got never contended for the win and finished 22nd with a pretty overall lackluster performance. In 2014, he posted solid finishes off 17th and 11th. In 14 career (points paying) races at Daytona, he have only managed 4 Top 10 finishes. But he also have managed 9 total top 20 finishes in those 14 races. So that isn't too bad overall, even though it haven't been great either. He been okay at Talladega, but overall similar results. Over the past 4 races at Talladega (2 seasons), he have compiled 19.3 average finish with 17.8 average running position and 83.2 driver rating. Joey won last fall Talladega race, but that was his first top 10 finish since April 2011 (10th place finish). So he went about 9 races without a top 10, prior to his past fall. Even though he had finishes off 11th and 16th in that span. But overall he have struggled. However he started off the season very well. In 3 of his first 4 races, he finished inside the top 9 though. Since he haven't been that good in terms of final finish position.
Short tracks will where Logano performs very strongly at, but as we seen over the past two season he have tendency to have misleading finishes. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he have compiled 14.8 average finish with 10.8 average running position and 108.0 driver rating. Among the three short tracks, he been his best at Richmond recently. Over the past 4 races (2 seasons) at Richmond, he have compiled 3.8 average finish with 5.0 average running position and 116.8 driver rating. Since joining Penske in 2013 (6 races), he have managed 5 Top 6 finishes. Including 3 Top 3 finishes. His past three spring races have ended like this: 3rd (2013), 1st (2014) and 5th (2015). Pretty damn solid, if you ask me! In fact, he have started inside the top 5 in his past three starts. Including sweeping the poles at Richmond in last season's races.
Logano is probably the most underrated driver in the series at Martinsville, or close to it. As he not the first driver we usual think of when we come to Martinsville. But thinking of his recent performances, he probably should be. In fact, he been pretty good throughout his career here. Not too many younger drivers can say that either. Over the past 3 races at Martinsville (minus his wreck last fall - 37th place), he have compiled 4.0 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 119.8 driver rating. Over those 3 races, he ranks 1st in average finish (4.0), average start (2.0), ARP (5.7) and DR (119.8). Without a question, he been the best driver in the series at Martinsville since start of 2014. And quite frankly he started being good at Martinsville long before joining Penske. In 14 career races at Martinsville, Joey have managed 9 Top 14 finishes. In fact 11 of his 14 career races at Martinsville have ended in 18th or better. I would say Bristol is another track that he is underrated at. His stats are misleading, if you look at his basic stats and don't dig into them. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 101.9 driver rating. Logano started out his career with 4 finishes of 23rd or worse in his first 5 races. Then summer of 2011, he started to turn the corner. Over his past 9 Bristol races, he have finished 20th or better in 8 of those 9 races. Including 5 of those 8 Top 20, ending with finishes of 13th or better. All 5 of those Top 13 finishes have came in the summer races. He have finished 1st, 1st, 5th, 8th and 13th over his past 5 summer races at Bristol. What I love most about that trend? He have improved his finish position each time. His two most recent finishes have resulted in wins. Logano also been a stout qualifier throughout his career. In 14 career races, he have managed an impressive 7.9 average starting position. Only twice have he failed to qualify inside the top 10. In fact, 6 of his past 7 races have resulted in top 6 starting positions.
Larger flats will be another strong spot for Logano in 2016 and performed very well last season at both venues. Last season on the large flats, he compiled 8.7 average finish with 8.7 average running position and 111.8 driver rating. He been very good at Indy recently and probably his better track of the two. Over the past 2 seasons (2 races), he have compiled 3.5 average finish with 7.0 average running position and 113.5 driver rating. He been very good over the past two seasons with finishes of 2nd and 5th. He have improved his finishing position in each of his past 4 starts: 2nd (2015), 5th (2014), 8th (2013) and 33rd (2012). Overall he been very good so far in his career with 5 Top 12 finishes in 7 career races. Including 4 top 9 finishes in those 7 races. Cannot really complain about the production that we have seen from him. It will only be matter of time before we see him break out. We saw a similar path from Kyle Busch before he finally won his first cup race here. I think he is equally as good at Pocono, but he have a few poor finishes that makes him misleading. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 16.8 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 105.3 driver rating. Last season he finished 20th and 4th. He wasn't very good at Pocono in the June's race. He wasn't that good, but he started posted an 4th place finish. At that time, I felt like Penske was a little bit behind the other top teams. In the August's race, he was very strong and had the car to beat. However he didn't get the finish he deserved after leading a race-high 97 of 160. He was dominated in second half of the race, but then everyone started to run out of gas. Including at the time race leader Joey Logano! Overall 6 of the past 8 Pocono have ended in 13th or better. Including 5 Top 10 finishes and 3 of those finishes ended in 4th or better. I mentioned his most recent poor finish (20th - last August), but his other poor finish was 40th in June 2014. He was pretty good in that race. I believe he was running somewhere in the top 10 when his engine finally let go.
I consider Logano to be one of the series most underrated road course racers! He never get any respect at this type racetrack and he really should be! Over the past 2 races at WGI, he have compiled an series-leading 3.5 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 103.7 driver rating. He won for the time in the cup series at a road course, but it not the first time he have found success. At Watkins Glenn, he been pretty good for awhile now. Over the past 5 races, he have knocked off 4 Top 7 finishes already. Overall in 7 career races, he have knocked off 5 Top 16 finishes. His other two finishes ended in 33rd and 32nd. Based on recently, I would say Joey is one of the series most reliable drivers! So how have he faired at Sonoma? Over the past 2 seasons (2 races) at Sonoma, he have compiled 10.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 83.8 driver rating. He finished 5th in last season's race and 16th in 2014's race. Overall he have knocked off 5 straight top 16 finishes. And 6 of his 7 career races at Sonoma have ended inside the top 20. More recently, he have knocked off 4 Top 11 finishes in his past 5 races, dating back to 2011. Overall he is very good at both racetracks and should considered a major threat!
*All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans